-Caveat Lector- > BOSTON GLOBE > RUSSIA'S MILITARY SEES A BALKAN OPPORTUNITY > > By David Filipov, Globe Staff, 04/08/99 > > MOSCOW - Remember ''The Peacemaker''? > The 1997 Hollywood flick in which a > maverick Russian general, disgruntled over the > sad state of his once proud country, steals nuclear > warheads for Bosnian Serb terrorists? > > That was the movie. Here is the reality. > > Today's maverick is Viktor Chechevatov, a > three-star general and commander of ground > forces in Russia's Far East region, who is > convinced that NATO's attacks on Yugoslavia > are ''the beginning of World War III.'' No matter > how often Russian President Boris N. Yeltsin says > Russia will stay away from the fighting, > Chechevatov keeps making public calls for > Moscow to send arms and men, preferably with him in charge, to fight the > > American-led alliance alongside the Serbs. > > At the very least, this is insubordination. But do not look for > Chechevatov to > be fired, or even reprimanded, anytime soon. Much of the country agrees > with Chechevatov when he says NATO's campaign against Yugoslavia > poses ''a direct threat to Russia.'' And the Kremlin, which yesterday > ordered > several more warships into the Mediterranean, may be listening, too. > > As Russians watch the US-led assault on Yugoslavia, political and > military > hawks are finding more support for their confrontational policies toward > the > West than at any time since the 1991 collapse of the Soviet Union. They > miss the way the West feared the former USSR, and they want those days > back. > > That poses a number of dangers, analysts say. In the short run, the > Kremlin > may find itself forced to take an increasingly militaristic line, even > as Yeltsin > repeats his promise not to let Russia get caught up in the conflict. > > But there are other forces in the Russian leadership who listen when > Chechevatov and other military leaders say that World War III has begun, > > and that Moscow's best move is to aid the Serbs. > > Yesterday, Russia's lower house of parliament, the State Duma, voted > overwhelmingly for a resolution advising Yeltsin and his government to > send > weapons and an unspecified military mission to Yugoslavia. Last week, > the > upper house passed a similar resolution. > > ''There exists the risk of the military pressuring the civilian > leadership for a > military reaction,'' said Alexander Pikayev, an analyst for the Carnegie > > Center in Moscow. ''The political leadership is under greater pressure > from > the leftist and nationalist opposition, which wants to use the Balkan > crisis to > come to power.'' > > Publicly, the Kremlin has so far ignored Chechevatov's call to arms. > Meanwhile, hundreds of volunteers have offered to fight alonside the > Serbs, > thought of by some here as Russia's traditional allies because of the > two > cultures' common Slav heritage and Orthodox Christian religion. The > government has told them to stay home. > > Yesterday, Yeltsin urged Western leaders to accept a unilateral peace > proposal offered by Yugoslavia on Tuesday. Underscoring Moscow's > options if diplomacy fails, a naval spokesman said a squadron of > warships > had set out from the Black Sea base of Sevastopol, Ukraine. Moscow had > previously informed Turkey that as many as eight ships, including the > missile > cruiser Admiral Golovko and several destroyers and frigates, could be > passing through the Bosphorus Strait in the next few days. > > Russia says the ships are heading for exercises in the Mediterranean, > but it is > clear they are intended to send a message to NATO as well. > > Already, Moscow has sent an unarmed electronic reconnaissance ship to > monitor the conflict. The Liman entered the Adriatic Sea yesterday, > where it > will begin relaying information about NATO air strikes back to Moscow - > and possibly to the Serbs, although Russia denies that Belgrade will get > > direct information from the spy ship. > > The danger of all these vessels is not that some Russian officer might > go > freelancing, like that maverick general in ''The Peacemaker,'' and act > unilaterally to escalate the conflict. Military analysts say that even > given the > deterioration of the Russian armed forces over the past decade, the > command structure among field officers is still too rigid to allow that. > But > analysts say Russian ships pose a threat just by being there. > > ''The presence of Russians in the area of the conflict could lead to an > uncontrolled escalation of the situation,'' Pikayev said. > > Since the bombing began, commentators have underlined how weak > Russia's military has become, implying that the Cold War-style rhetoric > coming out of Moscow, and such acts of suspending ties with NATO, are > no more than symbols because Russia can go no further. > > In a way this is true. Russia's military owes $1.5 billion in back > wages, > heating bills, and rent. According to the the newspaper Segodnya, it > fields > only 550 warplanes and 1,200 helicopters, 15 times less than 10 years > ago > and about 14 percent of NATO's 12,500 jets and helicopters. Those Black > Sea fleet warships, like many vessels in Russia's four fleets, have not > had > exercises in years. > > But Russia still has 6,660 nuclear warheads. Senior generals have warned > > that Moscow would use them if it felt threatened, and the Northern Fleet > > test-fired a ballistic missile in exercises last week. > > But what does ''threatened'' mean? Russia's defense minister, Igor > Sergeyev, > has said that the events in Yugoslavia are worrisome because they > ''could > happen anywhere.'' Many Russians worry NATO could use Kosovo as a > precedent to intervene in Russia's breakaway province of Chechnya, or in > > any of a number of hot spots along proposed routes for oil pipelines out > > from the Caspian Sea. > > ''The bombing of Yugoslavia could turn out in the very near future to be > just > a rehearsal for similar strikes on Russia,'' Chechevatov wrote in a > recent > letter to Yeltsin. Nearly two-thirds of Russians agree with the general, > > according to a poll by the Moscow-based Public Opinion Foundation. > > Meanwhile, the nuclear winter in Russia's relations with the West means > that > no significant arms-control initiatives will be signed anytime soon. > More > disturbing is the cancellation of an exchange program that would have > had > US and Russian nuclear weapons officers in constant contact at year's > end > to prevent any launches as a result of Year 2000 computer troubles. > > Someone is happy about what the Balkans crisis may do for Russia's > military: defense factories and military leaders for whom reduced > spending > on the army has been a disaster; officers who for the first time in > years are > holding exercises; officers like Chechevatov, who recently completed > exercises that ''had nothing to do with the Balkans'' in which his > troops > practiced shooting down Tomahawk cruise missiles. > > These people ''are partying 24 hours a day,'' in the words of Russian > defense > anlyst Pavel Felgenhauer. Parliament has already called for increases in > > defense funding, although it is hard to say where the money will come > from. > The Soviet military once enjoyed the lion's share of spending, but the > rest of > the country lived in relative squalor as a result. > > A long-term danger posed by the hawks' increasing influence is that > political > moderates, and those who favor constructive relations with the West, are > > finding their voices drowned out by what one legislator, Alexi Arbatov, > called ''the feeling of helpless rage'' experienced by many Russians. > This may > be the lasting legacy of the Balkan conflict for Russia. > > This story ran on page A01 of the Boston Globe on 04/08/99. > © Copyright 1999 Globe Newspaper Company. > > > ______________________________________________________________________ > To unsubscribe, write to [EMAIL PROTECTED] > Start Your Own FREE Email List at http://www.listbot.com/ > > DECLARATION & DISCLAIMER ========== CTRL is a discussion and informational exchange list. 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