-Caveat Lector-
Vision 2020 The Fall of Western Civilisation 2020- 2100
Section 1
The Roman Empire: The pattern of the future?
At the end of the 3rd century, the Roman empire stood astride the whole
western world, the centre of civilisation, stretching from the northern
realms of England to the Persia empire. The Mediterranean was the Roman
empire's lake. The trade of the empire went across the known world- Egypt,
Africa, china, Persia were involved in a delicate web of global trade. The
city of Rome was the centre of arts, culture trade. With architectural
marvels and a population of about a million people. Peoples life style was
at a level that was not to be repeated before the 17th century and even a
slaves life was better than that of a freeman in the dark ages. But within
a century, within 70 years, the lifetime of one man, the empire was
destroyed . The empire in the east remained, although shrunk in size. The
empire in the west was broken up until multiple kingdoms of Vandals,
Visigoths , franks, Angles Saxons and Jutes. The population of rome ended up
being 50 000, down from a million and the glory of Rome was destroyed
leaving only the Coliseum and the parthenon.
What went wrong? Why did Rome fall. No book ascribes a single cause and some
are probably consequences of deeper malaise.
There are three sets of commentators on the fall of the Roman empire- The
classicists/ morally orientated and the Biological.
The Classicists
The headings are taken from Mr. Grant's fall of the Roman empire in order to
see that the parallels without forcing the issue and committing the fault of
Procrustes.
1 The Failure of the army
The army began to be a parasite on the state. The costs of the army became
large and at the same time the army became a corrupt power seeking
organisation. The army began to fail to do its job of defending the borders,
became interested in political intrigue(as all emperors were dependent on
the army to continue ruling) and on increasing its share of the empire's
taxes. At the same time, the people no longer held the army in high esteem
and tried to get out of their duties with respect to the army. They were no
longer willing to contribute voluntarily to the social overheads necessary
to maintain the empire. Because they resented the army, it became difficult
to impose discipline on the soldiers and severly reduced its fighting
capabilities.. Hence when the barbarian invasions occurred the army was
unable to resist.
2 Class Dissension
As the empire entered the forth century, the empire was divided in terms of
class. The aristocratic classes had stopped having children and were putting
their lives and energy into their vas t estates and into wild revelry and
hedonism. They felt minimal loyalty toward the empire and in some ways they
were mini states unto themselves. They were exploiting the state for their
own benefit, creating monopolies, withholding taxation. The unproductive
poor were exploding in numbers and people who were on the states schemes
numbered 300 000 in Rome alone. Again they were alienated from the state and
wanting to gain the maximum benefit from the empire. The productive poor
(Kulaks?) and the middle classes started to shrink.
The peasant classes were paying so much in taxes that they could no long
support themselves and committed wide spread infanticide. The urban middle
classes were punished by high taxes and political oppression and it was
common for people to sell themselves into slavery in order to survive. The
shrinkage of the productive middle class and peasants was made worse by the
impact of bubonic plague that struck the empire in the 4th century and a
number of severe famines. Every man was doing his own thing. Eithe from
selfihness or simply to survive.
3 Corruption/ lawlessness
The bureaucrats who in earlier times were essentially honest became corrupt
and inefficient. Since the visible face of the state is it bureaucrats this
alienated the people from the state. The bureaucrats were money taking
thieves lining their own pockets and providing very little service in
return. The bureaucrats were also the police force of the day , so any sense
of law and order began to disappear from the streets.
The corruption reached the highest realms. Inflation was allowed to proceed
at full force and helped destroy the middle classes. This was stopped toward
the end , but then it was too late
4 The Racial partnerships that failed
The split of the empire between the east (Greek) and west (latin) meant that
their lives and interests began to deviate and were unwilling to come to the
assistance of the other. If they had stood together they could probably
resisted the barbarian invasions. But they did not.
The empire lost its sense of identity and purpose. The Romans permitted
large number of other peoples to come into the empire and undermine it as
they had no loyalty to the empire, even if they admired it. Africans from
the south, Goths , Visigoths (both German tribes ) from the north. The
Germans were allowed in initially to be used as mercenaries and to bolster
the declining productive powers of the empire.
The Romans no longer had the capacity to defend itself as the significant
number of soldiers belonged to the invading German tribes. In the end the
Germans were unassimable, particularly as their numbers and culture were
constantly renewed by new arrivals. The Romans state even in decline was
attractive and in the end they invaded and conquered the western Roman
empire. Interestingly, the eastern empire was not as dependent on German
labour, was more culturally homogenous and carried on another thousand years
before being overwhelmed by the Turkish hordes. (A similar problem of
declining numbers and productive capacity were major factors in its
destruction)
5The Groups that opted out
When Constantine made Christianity the official religion in 330, he regarded
it as the means of continuing the classical traditions. He wanted the
religion to become a unifying theme that emperor worship could never become.
He established a highly centralised body (Catholic church) with which to
achieve this(and the pagan priesthood introduced its ritualism into the
church). Initially the church and pagans lived equitably, but as empire
began to be stressed, and the need for unity increased, the church began to
become a persecutor of alternative beliefs and christian heresies. Again
alienating large sectors of the community.
Also because of the harsh world of decline, the people who opted out of
society joined the burgeoning monastic movement. Thus the empire lost these
people twice. Their effort and enterprise was pulled from the empire and
they no longer contributed children . These people were often the brightest
and best in the empire.
6The undermining of Effort
Education was no longer held in high esteem and both the classical Greek
education which is mentioned by the scholars and the highly developed
engineering was going into decline. With the decline of education, the
scholars were no longer capable of developing new solutions to the problems
of the empire and did not even try. Fatalism about the world pervaded the
social structure. The people opted out of the affairs of the day and
concentrated on spiritual affairs. If anything this was worse in the eastern
empire than the west, but the west could stand together on few points.
7Declining of the instruments of Production (quigley)
The roman empire was founded on three pillars- Greek classical learning,
slavery as a mode of production and Engineering excellence which allowed the
creation of large , relatively disease free cities.(the civil engineer save
far more lives than the doctor, and although his job is less glamorous the
ability to supply water and take away sewerage it the very basis of a
growing city life)
Each of these pillars began to crumble, learning fell, the empire stopped
expanding and had fewer slaves and technical innovation stopped and went
into decline. The end came.
It must be observed that when Odoacer conquered Rome in 476, the decline was
not a single event but the culmination of a large number of connected
events. Nor did it stop then. Much further damage was done to Rome when the
eastern empire under Justinian recaptured Rome in the 5th century. But this
was the date from which the whole business, bureaucratic and people
structure was never again and the descent into the dark ages began. Living
standards, the level of education were never as high in west until almost
1300 years later.
Gibbon probably blamed religion more than necessary in his books. The
eastern empire lasted a further 1000years (which is a lot longer than the
modernist empire is likely to last), was probably more religious, but was
more homogenous both ethnically and in outlook. The early Muslim conquerors
were regarded as liberators by the arabs, and only met resistance when they
started moving into the Greek areas
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Biological orientated
Life is a struggle for survival, shortage is common and abundance is rare.
In biological systems, they undergo a period of birth, growth stagnation and
death but in a changing world, the system is never stabile.
Typically, life of a species follows a cyclical pattern. The weather is
good, plant life thrives and the herbivores grow in number, followed by the
carnivores that dwell on them. As the weather turns, the cycle changes, the
plants die , the herbivore population falls and then the carnivores. In
Africa, there is 18-22 year cycle of wet and dry and this pattern has
followed year after year, with the changing in animal life that happens. The
pattern has reached equilibrium, for when an animal becomes a threat to the
environment or related herbivore, the success of the animal causes its own
demise as it has destroyed its own environment.
(This is why most sicknesses that are pandemic such as chicken pox have come
to some sort of equilibrium with its human host). One of the most
spectacular such population rise and collapse is that of the lemmings. They
grow in number in the good years, but when the weather turns they group in
mass and then hurl themselves in a frantic search for a new environment and
end up in a vain attempt to cross the Atlantic. They group themselves in
order to minimise predation.
The northern climes have different survival problems. Their short cycles are
annual and the animal adapts to surviving the winter.
One of the major themes between species is that of paternal provisioning and
high/ low family investment in offspring. To modes of survival for families
are possible. Either the family has a low investment with a large number of
offspring that each must take a chance (e.g. frogs, turtles-this is called r
form of investment) or fewer offspring for which the parents invest large
resources (e.g. bears, humans etc and is called k investment). As a subset
is the paternal involvement. If the male invest little in offspring then the
families tend to be large, polygamous, and the male spends most of his life
defending against hostile attacks by other males ( Seals, lions etc), or can
be small monogamous and the bonding is lifelong (Birds, gibbons).
Dimorphism is a significant trait in the polygamous situation with male
varying dramatically in size, strength etc from the female. (In humans and
apes the same pattern applies with ancestors from the north having higher
rates of parental invest, longer life spans and lower rates of dimorphism
compared with people from tropical regions.)
Two groups of peoples have been involved in setting up high investment
civilisations, more than any other groups. The Europeans and the Chinese.(A
study in History -Toynbee) The Chinese civilisations have tended to be more
stable than those set up by Europeans. The classical pattern has been is
that they set up an empire, are gradually overwhelmed and then the empire or
country collapses (if there are sufficient enemies) or stagnates. The
Chinese empires have tended to exclude other peoples and have generally been
more capable of resisting and expelling invaders.
So lets look at the history of the Roman empire. The original creators of
Rome were northern Europeans.(See Peterson). The original group grew in
strength after its founding in the 7th century bc, but remained a fairly
small grouping having to fight off the groups that surrounded it (eg
Etruscans). In the third century it started to grow , with slavery and its
excellent engineering skills being its mechanism of expansion. The religion
of expansion, a vision of Pax Romanica a world at peace under the wise rule
of Rome was supplied by its poets Virgil, Livid etc It came into conflict
with the civilisations it needed to conquer to maintain its growth. One of
its greatest came from the Carthaginians, (also Europeans) descended from
the phoneticians and living on the north coast of Africa. Their method of
expansion was by trade, but because of its position on the coast next to a
desert it did not have the resources or the population density to sustain a
war with Rome and was destroyed.
The original group of high investment people created an environment of
stability that permitted the growth of peoples who had low investment(and
low IQ---R). As the population swung around and the people capable of
contributing fell, the society began to stagnate. This was tied in with the
declining core population and the stopping of the wars of expansion that
meant that opportunities for growth also ceased and the population became
alienated and unwilling/ unable to invested the empire became vulnerable.
The population ceased to believe in the religions of Rome and the binding
forces keeping the multiple peoples together unraveled. The empire became
vulnerable to a more vibrant group with an expanding population.
Although the weather in the northern hemisphere does not cycle at regular
intervals, the changes in the earth weather that happens in the long term
has a more severe effect in the temperate region than in the equatorial
regions .(See Appendix-3.3).(an estimate of 800 year weather cycles has been
proposed, but remains disputed) In the 4th century, the earth experienced a
dramatic cooling. This caused the peoples in these areas to began mass
migrations as each one began to jostle one another for survival. The people
started to push against the Roman empire, Goths Visigoths, Huns, Franks
angles, Saxons, Jutes etc like lemmings in the European north. The Roman
empire with its sick declining core peoples was ready to fall. It had
exhausted its resources and had ceased to become self renewing.
And in the west the dark ages began. The church which had in some ways
contributed to fall, became the sole source of learning and kept the flame
alive as subsequent waves of invaders fell on the western world. Slowly
after the population collapsed and eventually stability began to be
restored, did the west come out of its darkness. In the 12th centuries the
first limited shareholder firms were created and with a Christian church
that was again positive and interested in learning , the growth of a new
civilisation began in earnest.
Are we again entering such a period of collapse? What will happen and when?
Are we running out of resources. Is multiculturalism a portent of collapse.
The patterns of the past could be indicating that we are coming to the end
of an era and a new world order , not of growth and stability but of turmoil
and want may be the future for our children
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Section 2
The Western Empire: The future fall?
The various factors that are lead to the fall of the Roman empire will now
be discussed and explored.
2.1 Demographics
The importance of Demographics to a civilisation can not be over emphasised.
If a people disappears, that civilisation dies. This appears to have been
the single largest contributor to the fall of the empire.
As a declining empire is faced with a vigorous expanding population, the
result is generally conflict and possible collapse. Whether, Rome, or Incan
empires. Western Europe and western Urals, the pattern remains the same.(see
Appendix 1 for an except from Prof Carrol Quiggley's analysis. This was used
extensively in clash of civilizations- S Huntington)
If the population is expanding it create both opportunities and threats.
The young are vigorous. If they have economic opportunities the vigour will
be thrown into that. If there is no opportunities, then they will be thrown
into warfare. See Appendix 1 which discusses the effect of demographics on a
conflict. As mentioned in the first Chapter, a declining population also
tends to cause invasions, either peaceful of otherwise, to take advantage of
the opportunities available. How does the western population look for now
and in the future.
Declining population-Western Europe.
1995 2050
Austria 6.1 7.1
Belarus 10.3 8.1
Belgium 10.1 8.9
Bulgaria 8.3 5.7
Croatia 4.5 3.7
Cuba 11.1 11.1
Czech 10.3 7.8
Denmark 5.3 4.8
Estonia 1.4 0.9
Finland 5.2 4.9
Germany 82.1 73.3
Greece 10.6 8.2
Hungary 10.1 7.5
Italy 57.4 41.2
Japan 126.3 104.9
Latvia 2.4 1.6
Lithuania 3.7 3
Netherlands 15.7 14.2
Poland 38.7 36.3
Portugal 9.9 8.1
Romania 22.5 16.4
Russian fed 147.4 121.3
Slovakia 5.4 4.8
Slovenia 2 1.5
Spain 39.6 30.2
Sweden 8.9 8.7
Switzerland 7.3 6.7
Ukraine 50.9 39.3
UK 58.6 56.7
Yugoslavia 10.6 10.5
782.7 657.4
This is shown in the developed countries share of world population
1950 23.5
2000 14.5
2050 10.1
This could be put another way. In 1930 Approximately 33% of the worlds
population was of northern european descent. By 1995 it was 8% with only 4%
of the children and the decline is accelerating.Thus in the future, the
european/american world view will no longer set the agenda, become
subservient to other forces and ultimately disappear.
The graph below gives the present projection of the population of the
developed world. The lower level is the most accurate as it is based on the
existing birth rates.. The higher level assumes some restoration to
replacement rates.
This graph shows the total demographics of the developed worlds. However
it's internal demographics is also undergoing dramatic change
USA
Non white & Hispanic as % of US population
1995 2050
Under 18 33.5 56.8
18-64 25.8 47.8
Over 65 14.5 34
Birth rates
Mexican American birthrate 3.2....white American 1.8
In 1995 20% of women 35-39 were childless
People aged over 85 in USA in 2050 will be between18.2m (census and
48.7(manton)
In Europe non european foreigners make up 10% of the population (inc 10-13 m
muslims)
By 2030 foreiners will make up 30% of the population in Germany
By 1994, most European Union member states had an average 10 - 15 per cent
Nonwhite population, with this figure effectively doubling every fifteen
years. These statistics are from the EU's own official records, Eurostat, in
Belgium.
These "non-nationals resident" are, according to the Eurostat figures, in
the majority derived from "Turkey, Africa, Latin America (excluding America
and Canada); Asia (excluding Japan); Oceania (excluding Australia and New
Zealand." (Migration Statistics, 1996, Eurostat, page xvii). It is clear
that the terms "Non-Nationals Resident" and "Less Developed Countries" are
Noncaucasian
The exponential growth rate means that the Nonwhite population of Western
Europe is successfully doubling approximately every fifteen years. This rate
of growth, , means that Europe will have an outright Nonwhite majority
population by the second half of the 21st century - by the year 2090.
Thus the Caucasian population of the world is undergoing a dramatic absolute
and relative decline against all other groups and within a century face
political oblivion followed by physical extinction.
Lets look at the other side of the equation , which is the massive expansion
of other groups and the possibility of conflict.
2.2 Group Identity
>From a group strategy perspective, human societies are seen as ecosystems in
which different human groups are analogous to species occupying a common
ecosystem and engaging in competition and/or reciprocity with each other.
Given below are the basic rules of a group strategy.(eperation and its
discontents-K MacDonald0
1. A group is defined as a discrete set of individuals that is identifiably
separate from other individuals (who themselves may or may not be members of
groups)
2. Separation between groups can be actively maintained or maintained as the
result of coercion. Groups actively maintaining separation between
themselves and other groups are defined as engaging in group evolutionary
strategies
3. Strategizing groups can range from complete genetic segregation from the
surrounding population to complete panmixia (i.e., random mating).
4. Altruism within strategizing groups may be facilitated by kinship
relationships within the group.
5. Powerful group controls on individual behavior are often an important
mechanism for promoting altruism and ensuring conformity to group interests
in strategizing human groups
6. Altruistic group strategies often develop controls that effectively
limit the extent of within-group altruism.
7. The minimization of conflicts of interest within the group is expected to
facilitate the willingness of individuals to cooperate and engage in
altruism
8. Altruism and internal cohesion within a strategizing group are expected
to be maximized in situations of external threat
9. Because of the problematic nature of altruistic behavior, altruistic
group strategies will tend to have highly elaborated mechanisms of group
socialization
10. While competition between groups is a common consequence of group
strategies, between-group competition is not a necessary consequence of the
development of group strategies
What this is saying that we are predisposed to form groups particularly
during times of threats. Such things as language, race, religion, culture,
and Land are used to denote different groups. It also says that although
groups may have weak barriers, they will never be done away with.
This gives the engine for both conflict (and survival). It also explains the
persistence of 'prejudice'.
The existence of group conflict then only awaits a contraction in the
economy, a plague, a major ecological disaster to start the ball rolling.
When survival becomes the only game, and a world of prosperity is a distant
memory, then the collision of civilisations begins in earnest.
So lets look at the other factors that could lead to this clash. Also
examined is the probable outcome of the disappearance of western man, even
if the clash is minimised or avoided.
2.3 Conflict Zones
As shown in appendix 1, the demographic bulge creates opportunities for
conflict.
What is of also great interest is the table below.(Clash of
civilisations-Huntington)
Youth Bulge in muslim countries
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Bosnia Syria Algeria Tajikistan Kyrgyzstan
Bahrain Albania Iraq Egypt Malaysia
Egypt Turkey Jordan Iran Pakistan
Kazakhstan Pakistan Bangladesh Saudi Arabia Iraq
Malaysia Indonesia Sudan Libya
Azerbaijan Afghanistan
This shows that there a persistent youth bulges in the muslim world. There
are also youth bulges occuring in Africa, Latin America, India and china.
(China is a special case)
However the bulge in the muslim areas is of special significance as seen
from the table below.
Ethno political Conflicts 1993-94
Intra-civilisation Inter-civilisation
Total
Islam 11 15 26
Others 19* 5 24
Total 30 20 50
*mostly african(10) inter ethnic conflict.
Muslim states have shown the highest propensity to resort to violence in
international crises and have higher degrees of armaments compared to other
countries at the same stage of economic development.
The higher propensity of Islamic states to react to conflict with violence
will be exaggerated by the youth bulge given previously.
What is also a precursor to violence is a disparity of male and females.
Unattached males will when frustrated resort to violence.
In china, because of china's large post war generation, the aging burden
doesn't hit until 2015. In Beijing fertility rates have dropped below 1.0
There are now 140 Chinese children under 5 for every 100 Chinese aged 65+.
In 2025 it shows 250 elders for every 100 children.
In most societies there are 105/107 boys to 100 girls. In china 1995 there
were 118 boys under5 to 100 girls. By 2020 the surplus of china's males in
their 20's will exceed the total female population of Taiwan
Thus china will be suffering two conflicting tendencies in 2020. The
beginning of the ageing population and a major sex disparity. This is also a
region that needs to be watched.
There also major youth bulges in Mexico and India. Each one has the
potential for conflict.
Thus, there are a number of demographic/ resource bas conflict Zones.
These are given below.
Islam/ Russia
This is already happening with the high Islamic birth rate in the former
USSR in places such as chechnya and Azerbaijan.
China/ Russia
Almost 5million Chinese have infiltrated into Siberia compared with 7 m
ethnic Russians living there. The major sex disparity, a resource shortage,
plus a declining Russian population could be a recipe for aggression.
Mexico/America
The creation of the new atzlan with a revived sense of Mexican/ Indian
nationalism?
Muslims/Europe.
In meditteranean will prove a small pond against the expansion of Islamic
populations.
Israel/Islam
In the Gaza\strip fertility=7.3, but in Israel =2.7. The intifada was
fuelled by large number of unemployed palestinian youth. The gap in
fertility between christian and muslim was a significant cause in the 20year
civil war in Lebanon. The fertility gap in and around Israel is a likely
cause of conflict.
India vs the rest.
India has a rapidly expanding population and if trends continue, it will be
the most populous nation early in the next century. Normally this would lead
to conflict with neighbouring companies. However these countries are densely
populated. And India is thinking of trying to ease its population problems
byemigration to the west and australia. This possibly could expand the
conflict.
Black Africa versus Europe.
Technologically, at this time, Africa poses no threat to Europe, but
unrestricted immigration could ignite nationalism on both sides. Aids may
slow African population growth, but also doesn't stop it.
Also because it will take out the middle ages it will produce a major youth
bulge and increase the possibility of war from young adults who have no
future and no hope.
There can also be wars of hegemony as various parties try to dominate their
regions in face of declining western power. The east asian powers China,
India, Indonesia, and of course the West could seek to create zonee or zones
of dominance.
2.4 Other elements of decline.
The west in particular is facing many of the typical
2.4.1Education
In america the SAT score rose until the 60's and then declined
signifficantly. In america 13% of american 17 year oldsare functionally
illiterate, that is they cant read above 4th grade. The figure is up to 40%
amongst Blacks/ Hispanics.(Samuel Blumenthal Who Kiled excellence,
Imprints, Vol 14 no9, Sep 1985)
Between 25-44million Americans can't read the poison warnings on can of
pesticide, or the front page of a newspaper.(Jonathan Kozol,Iliterate
america.).
In 1980, 80% of African Americans over the age of 14 could read. By
1990,after desegration only 56% could read. Sixteen percent of White adults,
44% of Blacks and 56% of Hispanics are functionally or marginally
illiterate.(JMc Curdy &D Speich "studentskillsdecline" Los Angeles Times 15
August 1976 & Kozol)
The original OBE system in Chicago only 1/3rd of pupils were able to read to
12th grade level and 50% did not complete-(Ron Suseri- Outcomes based
Education)
Social statistics(USA)
Marriage /1000 women 1970= 80 1990=58 (US Census)
Divorces /1000 women 1965=10 1990=20 (US Census)
Illegitimacy% 1965=5% 1990=30% (Public Health)
Welfare % 1965=2% 1990=7% (US Census)
Violent crimes(1950=1) 1965=1 1990=6 (Uniform
crime Reports-FBI)
SAT maths 1965=500 1990=475 (The college
Board)
SAT verbal 1965=470 1990=425 (The college
Board)
Pre marital sex 1963=22% 1980=55% (alan
Guttmacher Inst)
Gonorrhea/100 000(15-19)1963=360 1983=1150 (CDC)
In america, all these social changes started happening after prayer was
removed from school. This is possibly due to 2 reasons. People were no
longer aware of an extrinsic basic for morality. And secondly and possibly
more importantly, it represented the takeover of the elite from a wasp
grouping, that even if they were not christians, tolerated christian belief
, by an alternative elite that did not accept a christian base for morality.
The new eltes agenda was not to promote cultural or religious community, but
rather to promote hedonism and cultural alienation, followed by
multiculturalism and ethnic cleavage.
In most developed countries, similar events were happening. Most European
countries have become multiculural, multiethnic communities with no locus or
common mythology that is accepted by the people and the elite. The
exceptions are Japan and Italy, which have lower levels of social disruption
and have avoided becoming divided societies.(see The great Disruption-
Francis Fukuyama)
The disruption in societies can be shown in public belief of 70% of
americans that the government is conspiring against them, and the widespread
cynicism in European socities.
2.4.2 Economics
* Most households have lower net worth, adjusting for inflation, than they
did in 1983, when the Dow was still at 1,000.
* From 1983 to 1998, the S&P 500 grew a cumulative 1,336 percent. But the
wealthiest households reaped most of the gains.
* Since the mid-1970s, the top 1 percent of households have doubled their
share of the national wealth. The top 1 percent of U.S. households now
have more wealth than the entire bottom 95 percent.
* The top 1 percent of households control 40 percent of the wealth.
Financial wealth is even more concentrated. The top one percent control
nearly half of all financial wealth (net worth minus equity in
owner-occupied housing).
* Microsoft CEO Bill Gates owns more wealth than the bottom 45 percent of
American households combined. In the fall of 1997, Gates was worth more
than the combined Gross National Product of Central America -- for you
geography buffs, that's Guatemala, El Salvador, Costa Rica, Panama,
Honduras, Nicaragua and Belize. By the fall of 1998, Gates' $60 billion
was worth more than the GNPs of Central America plus Jamaica and Bolivia.
* The boom has been a bust for millions of Americans. The
inflation-adjusted net worth of the median household fell from $54,600 in
1989 to $49,900 in 1997. Nearly one out of five households have zero or
negative net worth (greater debts than assets), an increase from the
1980s.
* Workers are earning less, adjusting for inflation, than they did when
Richard Nixon was president. Average weekly wages for workers in 1998 were
12 percent below 1973, adjusting for inflation. Productivity grew nearly
33 percent in the same period.
The incomes of MIDDLE income families DROPPED by 22% during 93-98.
Income inequality is also widening between the top and the bottom jobs,
both in the services sector, and across the board. While the percentage of
top wage earners almost doubled in the last five years (from 4.3% in 1993,
to 8.0% in 1998), the share of the jobs paying only between $5/hr and
$10/hr increased from 50.6% to 52.9% in the same time frame.
* Families have sunk deeper into debt. Household debt as a percentage of
personal income rose from 58 percent in 1973 to an estimated 85 percent in
1997. Total credit card debt soared from $243 billion in 1990 to $560
billion in 1997. Credit card limits have risen to the point that the
average person can charge more than eight times what they already owe. As
of 1997, almost 60 percent of American households carried credit card
balances -- balances that average more than $7,000, costing these
households more than $1,000 per year in interest and fees.
-"Shifting Fortunes: The Perils of the Growing Wealth Gap in America,"
Edward Wolff of New York University,
The income inequality promotes the separation of the interests of the people
and the elite and further alienation. If unemployment takes off, then there
will be a witches brew of alienated , ethnically diverse population, all
having dashed expectations and a politically correct escape goat in the
white male populations.
Opting out?
The New Age movement is a one of the major groups opting out of society. The
emphasis is often on the destruction industry rather than the saving the
environment. Also the new age groups are alienated from traditional western
values.
In these days of comfort, people do not opt out by going into deserts and
flagelating themselves, but rather by sitting infront of the TV and stuffing
themselves. The same effect occurs and the possible productive effort that
is needed to maintain civil society is withdrawn.
Ecological disaster
In appendix 3, possible shocks to the world economy are discussed. The areas
such as Energy, Water, Climate and disease have the potential for
devastating the world economy and being causes of war. These uncontrollable
shocks, have the potential for creating the conditions for extremism.
Reasonable people are swept aside and the messianic politicians of both left
and right ask the people for permission to give them the power to do what is
necessary. Contrary voices are called hate speech and silenced.
Monetary collapse.
>From 2010 onwards, with the falling populations of Europe and Japan, there
will be a large and escalating monetary crisis. The people retiring will
come to their little nest eggs stored for retirement and find that they have
disappeared into wall streets back hole. The countries which have received
the funds could be temted to renege on any debts, particularly if they
believe that the west has neither the potential nor the desire to collect.
3 The western European options
1Western Oblivion
North west European White continue to decline, the civilization to become
more degraded and eventually disappear. Something new will eventually appear
but will have little relationship to that existing at the moment and will
probably look like a combination of Brazil, Haiti and India.. There are
probably 2 routes down this line. This is the most likely future, barring
outside events, which will be dealt with later. There are probably 2 routes
. One is the gentle decline , that happens slowly and is barely perceptible.
Since 1945, the west has been down this route. Anyone defending "Western
Christian civilization" , the term used by Churchill in his Iron curtain
speech would these days be regarded as ethnical or religiously exclusive and
be regarded as an extremist. The western elite is dominated by international
capitalists and alienated minorities that have little regard for the
traditions and customs of the past. The gentle decline will continue unless
a major shock is experienced. One likely result then is that the west will
become much more authoritarian, but the existing elite will remain in place,
still alienated from the western past but pursuing policies to create a
universal empire, a new world order, in order to recreate the stability that
was lost. However, since the west will be weakened by that time, it will be
unlikely to succeed.
2 West reaction
At the time of the shock, there is a revival of western political extremism.
The first signs of this can be seen in the revival of the politics of race
and culture, even when economically there not is a major crisis. The
politics of David Duke, Mr Haider , the peoples part of Switzerland, Le pen
are the signs that the west is beginning to react to the influx of people
from the 3rd world. These politicians could be pushed aside by the new
extremists that will arise in times of economic shock.
3Western Revival
A way of Creating a just society in which the culture , community of the
west is restored, without producing a violent extremism. An accomodation is
made with the other peoples to create a living space for western culture and
peoples. This is probably the least likely outcome due to the demoraphic
factors that are in play.
Summary.
The same factors of social and biological disruption are in place that
caused the fall of the Roman Empire.
It is unlikely that the western world will revive, and the factors that will
cause the decline have been in place at least from the 1960's.
In the next 100 years, the world will be totally transformed. It will become
unlike anything that has been in the past 2000. At the very best it will
become more violent, authoritarian and uncertain. It will likely be
dominated either by china or a revived form of Islam However, if the
politicians can handle the transition, the world will survive as an survive
with to dramatic a change. However, if the resource shocks cause a new wild
breed of messianic leaders to arise, the world can be plunged into a new
dark age, without an engine of restoration.
If a fall happens, it will not be a single event, but the culmination of a
series of negative events that with the weakened identity of the west, the
elites are unable to comprehend, never mind stop.
May God have mercy on ourselves , our children and those yet to be born.
Appendix 1 Demographics and the effect on civilisation.
Taken from Tragedy and Hope-Prof Caroll Quiggley -Prof Georgetown University
foreign affairs and President Clinton's mentor.
Most stable societies such as the Americana Indian before 1492 or medieval
Europe, have no population problems as birthrate is balanced by the death
rate. This kind of Society(Population A) the majority of the population is
young. As food supply increased after 1725 in Europe, the death rate began
to fall, the birthrate remained high and the population began to increase..
This gave rise to the demographic explosion (Poulation type B). The European
population increased in the 19th century and the major portion was in the
prime of life, the arms bearing population for men and the child rearing for
women.
At this point the demographic cycle goes into stage 3 (Pop Type 3) in which
the birth rate falls and a stabilising and aging population whose major
portion is mature(30-60). This causes the birthrate to decline further and
eventually gives a population so old that the death rate begins to rise
again because of the great increases in death from old age or from
casualties of inevitable senility. Accordingly, the society passes into a
fourth stage of the demographic cycle (Population Type D). This stage is
marked by a declining birthrate, a rising death rate, a decreasing
population, and a population in which the major part is over fifty years of
age.
It must be confessed that the nature of the fourth stage of this
demographic cycle is based on theoretical considerations rather than on
empirical observation, because even western Europe, where the cycle is most
advanced, has not yet reached this fourth stage. However, it seems quite
likely that it will pass into such a 'stage by the year 2ooo, and already
the increasing number of older persons has given rise to new problems and to
a new science called geriatrics both in western Europe and in the eastern
United States.
As we have said, Europe has already experienced the first three
stages of this demographic cycle as a result of the Agricultural Revolution
after 1725 and the Sanitation-Medical Revolution after 1775. As these two
revolutions have diffused outward from Western Europe to more peripheral
arms of the world (the life saving revolution passing the food-producing
revolution in the process), these more remote areas have entered, one, by
one, upon the demographic cycle. This means that the demographic explosion
(Population Type B) has moved outward from western Europe to Central Europe
to eastern Europe and finally to Asia and Africa. By the middle of the
twentieth century, India was fully in the grasp of the demographic
explosion, with its population shooting upward at a rate of about 5 million
a year, while Japan's population rose from 55 million in 1920 to 94 million
in 1960. A fine example of the working of this process can be seen in Ceylon
where in 1920 the birthrate was 40 per thousand and the death rate was 32
per thousand, but in 1950 the birthrate was still at 40 while the death rate
had fallen to 12. Before we examine the impact of this development on world
history in the twentieth century let us look at two brief tables which will
clarify this process.
The demographic cycle may be divided into four stages which we have
designated by the first four letters of the alphabet. these four stages can
be distinguished in respect to four traits: the birthrate, the death rate,
the number of the population, and its age distribution. The nature of the
four stages in these four respects can be seen in the following table:
THE DEMOGRAPHIC CYCLE
Age Distribution
STAGE A B C D
Birthrate High High Falling Low
Death Rate High Falling Low Rising
Numbers Stable Rising Stable Falling
Age distribution Many young Many in prime Many middle- Many
old aged
(below 18) (18-45) aged(over 30)
(over 50)
The consequences of this demographic cycle (and the resulting
demographic explosion) as it diffuses outward from western Europe to more
peripheral areas of the world may be gathered from the following table which
sets out the chronology of this movement in the four areas of western
Europe, central Europe, eastern Europe, and Asia:
Western Central Eastern Asia
Europe Europe Europe
1700 A A A A
1800 ..B... A A A
1850 B ... ..B A A
1900 C B ... ..B A
1950 C C B .... ..B
2000 D D C B
In this table the lint of greatest population pressure (the
demographic explosion of Type B population) has been marked by a dotted
lint. This shows that there has been a successive, at intervals of about
fifty years, of four successive ,population pressures which might be
designated with the following names:
Anglo-French pressure, about 1850
Germanic-Italian pressure, about I9OO
Slavic pressure, about 1950
Asiatic pressure, about 2000
This diffusion of pressure outward from the western European core of Western
Civilization can contribute a great deal toward a richer under-standing of
the period 1850-2000. It helps to explain the Anglo-French rivalry about
1850, the Anglo-French alliance based on fear of Germany after 1900, the
free-world alliance based on fear of Soviet Russia after 1950, and the
danger to both Western Civilization and Soviet Civilization from Asiatic
pressure by 2000.
These examples show how our understanding of the problems of the
twentieth century world can be illuminated by a study of the various
developments of western Europe and of the varying rates by which they
diffused outward to the more peripheral portions of Western Civilization and
ultimately to the , non-Western world. In a rough fashion we might list
these developments in the order in which they
appeared in western Europe as well as the order in which they appeared
in the more remote non-Western world:
DEVELOPMENTS IN WESTERN E.UROPE;
I. Western ideology
2. Revolution in weapons (especially firearms)
3. Agricultural Revolution
4. Industrial Revolution
5. Revolution in sanitation and medicine
6. Demographic explosion
7. Revolution in transportation and communications
DEVELOPMENTS IN ASIA
I. Revolution in wenpons
2. Revolution in transport and
communications
3. Revolution in sanitation and
medicine
4. Industrial Revolution
5. Demographic explosion
6. Agricultural Revolution
7. And last (if at all), Western
ideology.
Naturally, these two lists are only a rough approximation to the
truth. In the European list it should be quite clear that each development
is listed in the order of its first beginning and that each of these traits
has been a continuing process of development since. In the Asiatic list it
should be clear that the order of arrival of the different traits is quite
different in different areas and that the order given on this list is merely
one which stems to apply to several important areas. Naturally, the problems
arising from the advent of these traits in Asiatic areas depend on the order
in which the traits arrive, and thus are quite different in areas where this
order of arrival is different. The chief differenee arises from a reversal
of order between items 3 and 4.
The fact that Asia obtained these traits in a different order from
that of Europe is of the greatest significance. We shall devote much of the
rest of this book to examining this subject. At this point we might point
out two aspects of it. In 1830 democracy was growing rapidly in Europe and
in America. At that time the development of weapons had reached a point
where governments could not get weapons which were much more effective than
those which private individuals could get. Moreover, private individuals
could obtain good weapons because they had a high enough standard of living
to afford it (as a resuh of the Agricultural Revolution) and such weapons
were cheap (as a result of the Industrial Revolution).
By 1930 (and even more by 1950) the development of weapons had
advanced to the point where governments could obtain more effective weapons
(dive-bombers, armored cars, flamethrowers, poisonous gases,and such)
than private individuals.
Moreover, in Asia, these better weapons arrived before standards of living
could raised by the Agricultural Revolution or costs of weapons reduced
sufficiently by the Industrial Revolution. Moreover, standards of living
were held down in Asia because the Sanitation-Medical Revolution and the
demographic explosion arrived before the Agricultural Revolution.
As a result, governments in Europe in I 830
hardly dared to oppress the people, and democracy was growing; but in the
non-European world by 1930 (and even more by 1950) govern-ments did dare to,
and could, oppress their peoples, who could do little to prevent it. When we
add to this picture the fact that the ideology of Western Europe had strong
democratic elements derived from its Christian and scientific traditions,
while Asiatic countries had authoritarian traditions in political lift, we
an see that democracy had a hopeful future in Europe in 1830 but a very
dubious future in Asia in 1950.
From another point of view we em see that in Europe the sequence of
Agricultural-Industrial-Transportation revolutions made it possible for
Europe to have rising standards of living md little rural oppression, since
the Agricultural Revolution provided the food and thus the labor for
industrialism and for transport facilities. But in Asia, where the sequence
of these three revolutions was different (generally:
Transportation-Industrial-Agricultural), labor could bc obtained from the
Sanitary-Medical Revolution, but food for this labor could be obtained only
by oppressing the rural population and preventing any real improvements in
standards of living. Some countries tried to avoid this by borrowing capita1
for railroads and steel mills from European countries rather than by raising
capital from the savings of their own people, but this meant that these
countries became the debtors (and thus to some extent the subordinates) of
Europe. Asiatic nationalism usually came to resent this debtor role and to
prefer the role of rural oppression of its own people by its own government.
The most striking example of this pref-erence for rural oppression over
foreign indebtedness was made in the Soviet Union in 1928 with the opening
of the Five-Year plans. Some-what similar but less drastic choices were made
even earlier in Japan and much later in China. But we must never forget that
these and other difficult choices had to be made by Asiatics because they
obtained the diffused traits of Western Civilization in an order different
from that in which Europe obtained them.
=========================================================================
Appendix 2
The Strengths and weaknesses of northern europeans.
The major difference between the West European people and the other groups
are explored in this section. Since they, like the Bushmen and aborigenes
before them, are to become a dispossessed people group, even though until
recently they were the dominant ethnic group, it is useful to see how they
differ from the other peoples.
IQ, crime and Achievement
Race IQ SD Over 120 Ratio120
Violent Crime/WE
% Over 140 /Av whites
% Ratio140
Achievement Ratio
NWE Average 100 15 4.6 0.2 100 100
1.0 100
Chinese(av) 104 12 4.6 .07 100 35
x .8-1.2 220
Chinese(visiospatial) 110 12 10.1 0.3 221 162
African 75 12 .004 .002 .1 .00
x10-15
Hispanic 90 15 1.1 .002 25 11
4-6 10
Askenazi Jew 115 15 18 2.4 400 1250
x.33-.5 490
African American 85 15 .49 .0061 10 3.2
x8-12 9
East Indian 95 15 2.3 .067 52 35
1.0
If the chinese IQ is 104 and the sd is 15 then the chinese ratio's should
be(for 130) 182 and 214
Crime figures are taken from the 1995 FBI's Supplementary Homicide Report.
Plus additional sources
The Jewish figure is taken from the 1942 Universal Jewish Encyclopaedia.
The east indian figures were not availlable directly but the crime stats for
east asians in the UK are similar to the white population(Black figures are
10* higher than whites males )
The figures for Africans are taken from South Africa-using Private police
information and Rape and other data(see Pinc). The Chinese figures vary
considerably and have been usually lower(1/3-1/2) than white figures. There
may be a rising trend related to gang violence?
For non violent crime The ratio's are much lower, for instance the ratio of
robbery in the USA black/ white is 2-3. The average Black prison rate is
approx 6x that of whites.The ratio of business crimes for the Jewish
community is similar to the white equivalent business class (given that the
is a disproportionate no of Jewish traders). The different demographic
profile of the groups will probably reduce the differences somewhat , in
that younger people tend to commit more offenses.
The achievement index comes from The Geographaphy of American achievement- N
Weyl and is the composite index presented. The Indian figure is not given as
the sample is too small. There could be a similar problem over the Chinese
figure, but the sample is larger.
To explore the effect of intellect and other factor referred to is the
achievement ratios taken again from the geography of intellect. It shows the
expected pattern that one would expect from the IQ. It also shows the bias
of the groups with Blacks and jews having higher verbal skills than
visiospatial and the chinese having higher visio-spatial skills
the average for america =100
Law Science
British 99 93
German 111 138
French 61 77
Slavs - 62
Hispanic 5 -
Black - -
Jewish 684 592
Chinese 24 784
Japanese 85 391
(From Geography of American Intellect- N Weyl)
This is the data for the richest men in america for the mid 1980's. It shows
that at the extremes, the richest people, the ratio's match that of people
with the IQ in the higher 140+ region(wheras to enter into who's who
requires an IQ , on average, in the 120-130 region)
Estimated net worth of forbes 400 Richest Americans
National group
No Pct net worth % Population
British 234 58.3 32.1%
Jewish 92 24.9 4.7%
German 39 9 8.4%
Scandinavian 10 2.3 16.0%
French 4 1.8 2.8%
Italian 9 _ 1.3 2.5%
Armenian 3 !
Lebanese 2 !
Greek 2 !
Chinese 1 ! 2.9%
Egyptian 1 !
Hispanic 1 ! 11.3%
Dutch 1 ! 2.2%
Hungarian/slavic 1 v 2.5%
2.4
% Pop is from social security register (doesn't reflect total population but
not inaccurate representation of working population) (-From Geography of
American Intellect- N Weyl)
This is mirrored in the total number of nobel prizes given with Jews being
approxumately 10x overrepresented and with people from northern europe, the
total percentage comes to over 80%.(See Genius-H Eysenk)
In most indices white fit in between Blacks and chinese(mongoloid) in terms
the r/K dimensions of data of IQ, inhibition, earlier maturity, with the
chinese having the highest IQ highest inhibition, slowest maturity, lowest
twin rate, highest introversion etc. (See Rushton, Race, Evolution and
Behaviour)
What is interesting from the above tables is that even though the chinese
have higher average IQ they have significantly lower rates of Very high IQ.
The creative elite will, to an extent be lacking, but the chinese will have
greater cohesiveness and ability to work together as a group.
Over and above the traits give above the additional traits seem to be
concentrated in Norther europeans.
That is to say that other groups do not show these traits , but that they
will be more prominent in Northern whites.
The levels of corruption appear to be far lower than anywhere else(china
has very high rates of corruption)-but this may be the effect of residual
protestantism. Norther european grops inparticular and europeans in general
seem to more willing to give their loyalty to rules and systems compared to
kinship systems. This may explain that they have created more open ended
empires compared to the chinese/ Japanese which have tended to choose
kinship, exclusivist systems.(A study in History- A Toynbee)
>
> In Galen's prophecy, Jerome Kagan points out that Nordics have
significantly higher rates of anxiety and hypothesis that this is the
genetic basis for the Nordics attachment for Calvinism(and the low anxiety
, the Chinese attachment toward Buddhism).
Northern europeans seem to be much more indivualistic than other groups and
less power orientated(Culture and Organisations-Hofstede) (Born to rebel-
Sulloway); (Culture of critique-K Mac Donald)
>The strengths are the northern european weaknesses. Individualism has
created enormous opportunities for creativity, entrepreneurship and
individual freedom. However, it struggles to resist, group conflict within
the society and manipulation by guilt.
What will be the consequences of the fall of the west. Probabbly the
following. The world will become more authoritarian and power orientated.
Group conflict will become again more prominent, as it is the western
influence that pushes democracy and individualism. There will be lower rates
of major innovation, with the east(china) becoming the major source of
innovation. This innovation will tend to be slower, but consistent, and will
mean that the intellectual centre will move to Shanghai sometime in the next
century, if the chinese government remains open to outside influences. The
lower rate of innovation will probably cause a jobs crisis and conflict due
to unfullfilled expectations. The areas with mexican and Black majorities
will become more like their respective homelands. America and Europe will
look more and more like Congo and mexico city, or Congo/Pakistan which will
accelerate the intellectual demise of the west.
Finally, the general differences between the principle racial groups as
presented in Rushton's Race evolution and Behavior
Oriental White
Black
Maturation rate
Born by 39 week pregnancy 33%
51%
Walking (months) 13 12
11
Permanent Teeth (Yr) 6.1 6.1
5.8
Personality
Introversion Higher
Intermediate Lower
Neuroticism Higher
Intermediate Lower
Tough mindedness na Lower
Higher
Reproduction
Dizigotic Twins /1000 births 4
8 16+
Sex/wk (20yr old) 1-4 2-4
3-10
Testostrogene 90% 100%
115%
Condom size 49mm 52mm
53mm
% whose length shorter than 6in 81% 30%
15%
Brain Size
Autopsy (cm3) 1351 1356
1223
Endocranial Volume(cm3) 1415 1362
1268
(MRI measured internal brain size correlates 40%+ with IQ--- external about
20%)
Crime * level ofMAO inhibitors such as serotonin negatively
correlated with crime
Murder ratios(not multi ethnic societies) 70% 100%
200%
Mao(monoamine oxidase inhibitors)* na
higher low
Disease (ratios)
Kidney Failure(ie salt retention) 1
4
HIV rates (USA and SA) (1993) .7 1
15+
(College graduate whites behavior is closer to non college whites then Black
graduates)
--------------------------------------------
THE
SCIENTIFIC AND TECHNOLOGICAL GENIUS OF THE ANGLO/CELTIC AND JEWISH
PEOPLES (Excerpted from Prime Minister Churchill's speech to
Britain's House of Commons on August 20, 1940, following the fall of
France to the Nazis)
The ROOT & BRANCH INFORMATION SERVICE distributes news, features and
commentary on Jews, Judaism and Israel. Views expressed are those of the
authors alone.
Bible-Based Societies/Commentary: WINSTON CHURCHILL ON THE SCIENTIFIC AND
TECHNOLOGICAL GENIUS OF THE ANGLO/CELTIC AND JEWISH PEOPLES
(Excerpted from Prime Minister Churchill's speech to Britain's House of
Commons on August 20, 1940, following the fall of France to the Nazis)
LONDON, ENGLAND, Yom Sheini (Second Day -- "Monday"), 13 Av, 5759 (July 26,
1999), Root & Branch:
There is another more obvious difference from 1914. The whole of the
warring nations are engaged, not only soldiers, but the entire population,
men, women and children. The fronts are everywhere.
The trenches are dug in the towns and streets. Every village is fortified.
Every road is barred. The front line runs through the factories. The
workmen are soldiers with different weapons but the same courage.
These are great and distinctive changes from what many of us saw in the
struggle of a quarter of a century ago. There seems to be every reason to
believe that THIS NEW KIND OF WAR IS WELL SUITED TO THE GENIUS AND THE
RESOURCES OF THE BRITISH NATION and the British Empire and that, once we
get properly equipped and properly started, a war of this kind will be more
favourable to us than the sombre mass slaughters of the Somme and
Passchendaele.
If it is a case of the whole nation fighting and suffering together, that
ought to suit us, because we are the most unified of all the nations,
because we entered the war upon the national will and with our eyes open,
and because WE HAVE BEEN NURTURED IN FREEDOM AND INDIVIDUAL RESPONSIBILITY
AND ARE THE PRODUCTS, NOT OF TOTALITARIAN UNIFORMITY, BUT OF TOLERANCE AND
VARIETY.
IF THESE QUALITIES ARE TURNED, AS THEY ARE BEING TURNED, TO THE ARTS OF
WAR, WE MAY BE ABLE TO SHOW THE ENEMY QUITE A LOT OF THINGS THAT THEY HAVE
NOT THOUGHT OF YET.
SINCE THE GERMANS DROVE THE JEWS OUT AND LOWERED THEIR TECHNICAL STANDARDS,
OUR SCIENCE IS DEFINITELY AHEAD OF THEIRS.
Our geographical position, the command of the sea, and THE FRIENDSHIP OF
THE UNITED STATES enable us to draw resources from the whole world and TO
MANUFACTURE WEAPONS OF WAR OF EVERY KIND, BUT ESPECIALLY OF THE SUPERFINE
KINDS, on a scale hitherto practised only by Nazi Germany.
-----------------------------------------------------------
ABOUT THE ROOT & BRANCH ASSOCIATION'S CENTER FOR THE STUDY OF BIBLE-BASED
SOCIETIES AND SCIENTIFIC DISCOVERY:
The CENTER FOR THE STUDY OF BIBLE-BASED SOCIETIES AND SCIENTIFIC DISCOVERY
encourages cooperation between Israel and other Bible-based nations. 86%
of all Nobel Science Prize winners (whether "religious" or
"secular") are Jews (22%) and Protestants (64%) from the Bible-reading
(i.e. Reformation and Reformation influenced) nations of northwest Europe,
Scandinavia, England and its Anglo/Celtic offspring (America, Australia,
Canada and New Zealand). Jews and Bible-reading Non-Jews must consciously
use their G-d-given gifts for invention and discovery to solve problems in
various fields, including: Communications, Defense, Ecology, Energy
(replacing fossil fuels with non-polluting renewable energy sources),
Medicine, Space Exploration, Space Colonization and Space Guard (protecting
Earth from collisions with comets and asteroids).
PROFESSORS HERMAN BRANOVER AND GERALD SCHROEDER are members of the Advisory
Board of the Center.
-----------------------------------------------------------
Appendix 3- The Potential Ecology Crash
3.1 Energy
The price of crude in 1999 fell to its lowest level since about 1914.
Since the 1970-9 crude oil shortage , the world has become used to a renewed
supply of crude oil and the expectation of a crude oil problems has
receeded for consciousness.
The cprice of crude at that time rose from to $70/bbl in today's term. There
were 2 essential reasons for that rise. The world had been in a 30year boom
and operating rates for crude were high and also the level of opec to the
crude pool was very high and made the world vulnerable to manipulation. From
that time the dependency on opec has fallen and crude oil consumption
stagnated. However in the diagram below it can be seen that the dependency
on opec is again rising rapidly. People have become used to ever expanding
crude reserves being announced . What of the future?
Firstly crude reserve inceases have been announced but almost universally in
the third world. Secondly, opec has based its offtake on reserves, which has
given a large incentive to maximise availlable reserves.
Lastly there is a growing consensus that the reserves announced is
realistic. The crude oul production pattern for the USA shown in the table
below has fitted very accuartely expect production patterns.
USA crude consumption 1000 bpd
Consumption Production
1986 15665 10230
1987 16025 9945
1988 16663 9765
1989 16665 9160
1990 16305 8915
1991 16000 9075
1992 16260 8870
1993 16470 8585
1994 16950 8390
1995 16950 8320
BP' Book of Energy 1996
Thus the figures given in the diagram below are probably accurate. They are
the median forecast for crude oil, with the low being 2000billion barrels
and the high being 3000billion barrels.
Graph-Ultimate median conventional reserves(world energy outlook 1998)
Is more crude availlable. Yes. Of course but at a price. Thus to obtain more
crude , from 2010 onwards, the crude price is likely to start moving from
the 12-18$/bbl in which crude has been moving and move into the $20-30/bl ,
and from 2020 probably into the $25-35.
To keep crude at these level will also require enormous quantities of
capital To produce 30 000bl/day from synthetic crude costs about $1bn. To
produce by synfuels the deficit of crude for america would cost in the order
of .$266bn. This would have to be implemented in a time of declining
capital availability
Alternative materials such as methanol also require large capital and
infrastucture investment. Secondary and tertiary oil recovery is also
expensive. Alternative energy such as fission (and even fusion) will be
extremely capital intensive. So unless real outsider such as vacuum energy
and cold fusion prove to be real, early in the next century, we are likely
to be starting to expect to pay increased costs for energy.
Whether this becomes a shock is dependent on politics. Firstly at this time
there is likely to a capital shortage and secondly, the world will become
increasingly dependent on crude oil from OPEC, a region primed by position,
religion and demographics to be extremely volatile. If the politics do not
interfere, the system will probably cope with the changes.
3.2 Water.
The world is starting to run out of clean fresh water. Aquifers in
California and the middle east are not being replenished. In South Africa ,
the limits to growth is being set by water availability. Again these limits
can be overcome, but at increasing capital costs and are likely to start the
movement of large numbers of people from the dry centre to the wetter North,
particularly if the green house effects are true.
3.3 Climate
The climate was probably a significant cause of the fall of Rome, the later
Mongol invasions.
As can be seen in the pictures below, that climate is not constant, but
changes on a periodic basis
From
Climate and the affairs of man-Browning and Ibsen
The work of Toynbee(A study in History) has also shown a strong correlation
with changes in climate and invasions of the west, Indian and Chinese
civilizations. The area that is most vulnerable is that occupied by the
Turkic/Islamic peoples.
The changes in weather can dramatic and quite abrupt.(if the Gulf stream
stops flowing, the effect on europe will be immediate and dramatic and could
cause a european Ice age within 20-30 years) Even ignoring the possible
effect of the greenhouse gasses, the probability of a major change in
temperature in the next century is very large.
3.4 Disease
Disease is great unknown. It represents a possible major dislocation as it
also did to Rome.
There a probably three major possible disease pools that could cause
terrible damage.
1 Present dieases that are becoming immune to anti biotics.
2 New and more virulent diseases that could originate from such sources as
the destruction of habitat.
A m,ajor fear amongst epideiologists to whom I have talked is the origin of
diseases from those with depressed immune response such as AIDS
3 The biological warfare possibilities of the worlds armies. These include
Gene /race specific diseases.
But these are not forecastable and won't be dwelt upon but are major
potential disruptive forces.
-
Appendix 4 The coming Financial crisis
The greatest and most devastating threat is the coming financial crunch for
which the world is ill prepared. This is entirely forecastable and was
probably avoidable, byt because of the short term focus of democratic
politics has not been adequately dealt with.
The present stock market boom is being driven by the free cash flow of the
pre-retirement baby boomers.
(see below)
However that is about to end and instead of there being surplus cash to put
into the market, that cash will begin to be withdrawn resulting in a long
term bear trend in the market. Over and above that, the demands on the
fiscus will begin to grow, cutting further the availability of cash.
Given below is the anticipated US Social security deficits.(Gray
Dawn-Peterson)
USA social security deficits $bn
1998 +52
2005 52
2010 32
2015 -49
2020 -214
2030 -684
2040 -1147
In order to pay this , the payroll tax will have to be increased, the
benefits reduced or retirement postponed.
Total payroll tax assuming it is raised to cover additional public spending
on pensions and health benefits
1995 2030
Italy 37.6 71.5
France 37.4 57.4
Germany 34.4 63.0
Japan 24.3 53.2
U.K. 20 32.4
US 15.2 31.9
Canada 13 36.6
The taxpayer pensioner ratio also shows that the potential for crisis is
large and that the western governments will have to renege on their promises
to maintain benefits or to charge more or increase the working life
Taxpayer/pensioner ratio
1995 2050
France 2.5 1.4
Germany 2.3 1.2
Italy 1.3 0.7
Japan 2.6 1.5
UK 2.7 2.1
Canada 3.6 1.6
USA 4.2 2.3
The tables above show that something is going to have to give.
The number of people in the USA over 85 could range from 18.2m (census) to
48.7(kenneth manton) and will prove both a burden on the fiscus and
incapable of defending their country.
In the USA, the thought has been promoted that immigrants will provide the
funding. Howver over and above the probable lower rates of funding it is
unlikely that a non white racial group will be willing to pay the retirement
fees of a n elderly and relatively powerless white minority. An example is
South Africa. In which the ANC cut funding to old age homes, which were
primarily for whites and took the money and built clinics for mothers with
children (primarily blacks)
Bibliography
Civilisation
The Fall of the Roman Empire Michael Grant
The Decline and Fall of the Roman empire Gibbons
The History of civilisations- Braudel
When nations Die-Jim Black
Did Television cause the changes in youth morality-David Barton
The great Disruption F Fukuyama.
The evolution of civilisation- C Quiggley
Tradgedy and Hope- C Quiggley
The clash of civilisations- S Huntington
IQ and genetics
The Bell Curve-Herrenstein and Murray
Why Race matters- M Levin
Race evolution and Behavior- JP Rushton
The mismeasure of man- S J Gould.
The geography of Intellect- N Weyl
The geography of american intellect- N Weyl
The Bell curve Wars
Finance
Gray Dawn- P G Peterson (CFR & Director of Federal Reserve)
The great boom ahead _Delft
Climate
Climate and the affairs of man-Browning and Ibsen
Plagues progress
Beyond the Jupiter effect- Griffin
Energy
BP Statistical review of world energy 1996
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