-Caveat Lector- http://www.guardianunlimited.co.uk/elsewhere/journalist/story/0,7792,427948,00.html Tremors topple Tokyo's tranquillity Japan's iconic Mount Fuji is rumoured to be close to blowing its top for the first time in almost 300 years, writes Jonathan Watts Thursday January 25, 2001 Just three weeks into the new millennium, Japan already seems to have entered into a darkly apocalyptic mood. The newspapers are full of political scandal, Tokyo stock prices have slumped on fears of recession and economists are warning that the country could face a financial crisis in March. And as if that was not enough to satisfy the doomsayers, the word is now going round that Mt Fuji, the symbol of Japanese serenity, may be about to blow its top. Rumours about an imminent eruption of the long dormant volcano have spread since signs of heightened magma activity under the mountain were reported late last year. On average, 10 low frequencies tremors are detected deep below Mt Fuji annually. But according to the national meteorological agency, this pattern changed dramatically in the autumn with 33 minor quakes detected in September, 133 in October and 222 in November. Scientists say this increase does not mean Mt Fuji will explode into life any time soon, but they acknowledge that the change merits close attention. Their caution is understandable after a year of intense subterranean movement that is unusual even for Japan, a land that is wrinkled by more earthquakes and pimpled with more volcanoes than almost any other nation on earth. In the past 12 months, the archipelago has experienced three major eruptions and several large earthquakes, including a trembler in Tottori, western Japan, that registered 7.3 on the Richter scale, making it bigger than the Kobe quake that killed more than 6,000 people in 1995. Seismology and vulcanology are notoriously imprecise sciences, but many experts in these fields say Japan could be entering a period of heightened seismic activity. Such vague warnings along with the stirrings nine miles below Mt Fuji have been enough to prompt the weekly tabloids to raise the prospect of a devastating eruption that could threaten the 12m inhabitants of Tokyo, which sits 60 miles from the mountain's slopes. It has also prompted the local authorities around the mountain to conduct their first disaster prevention drills and to draw up hazard maps of the areas that would be most vulnerable to pyroclastic flows of molten rock and gas. Such precautions represent a breakthrough. Until now, municipal officials have refused to recognise the possibility of an eruption for fear that it would damage the lucrative Mt Fuji tourist trade. Rising 3,776 metres (12,388ft) from sea level in a nearly perfect cone, Mt Fuji is not only Japan's tallest and most beautiful mountain, it is also a national symbol and an object of worship. During the two month climbing season each summer, about 150,000 pilgrims and sightseers make the four and a half hour trek up the mountain's ash-grey slopes to a peak that is home to numerous Shinto shrines as well as a vending machine for soft drinks. For most visitors, the main concern is the rubbish that has piled up on the mountain's slopes rather than the possibility of an eruption. Mt Fuji has not blown its top since 1707, when it devastated surrounding villages and rained ash on Tokyo for two weeks. But every few years - usually after an eruption elsewhere in Japan - there are warnings that Fuji will be the next to go. The most apocalyptic scenario was painted in the 1984 bestseller, "The Great Explosion of Mt Fuji", which predicted that an eruption would trigger a massive earthquake in Tokyo, similar to the one that killed 140,000 people in 1923. That book was blamed for a 10% fall in tourist numbers in the Fuji area the following year, which makes the move to stage a drill this summer seem all the braver. The decision appears to reflect an important change in attitude towards disaster preparation in Japan. Despite the fact that the earth is rarely still in this part of the world, the authorities have often been criticised in the past for taking an overly rosy view of the likelihood and potential impact of natural calamities. But that certainly was not the case last year, when the government acted quickly and effectively to prevent a single volcano or earthquake fatality. In this sense at least, it would seem that the growing tendency to assume the worst is proving to be one of the best things to have happened to Japan in years. <A HREF="http://www.ctrl.org/">www.ctrl.org</A> DECLARATION & DISCLAIMER ========== CTRL is a discussion & informational exchange list. Proselytizing propagandic screeds are unwelcomed. 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