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MER WEEKEND READING:
U.S. RISKING POPULAR UPRISING IN KEY MUSLIM COUNTRIES
"The United States appears to be plotting to
launch a world war by declaring a crusade
against Muslims on the pretext of avenging
terror attacks on the World Trade Center
(WTC) and the Pentagon. The U.S. and its
allies are attempting to strike Islamic states,
bypassing the United Nations Security Council,"
Daily Newspaper Inqilab (Bangladesh)
MID-EAST REALITIES © - MER - www.MiddleEast.Org - Washington - 9/22:
No question about it now, the U.S. is playing with fire, even with the
possibility of things spiraling out of control and leading to a real World War whose
destruction and devastation could be far greater than 11 September 2001. The last
President made a point of reading Barbara Tuckman's "Guns of August", the story of how
World War I began with a single assassination in the Balkans that then triggered
pledges and alliances and spiralled from one event to another until the world was
engulfed in a conflict it could not stop or control. This American President, sad to
say, reads little of such serious works and spent most of his time in college over at
the frat house. George W. Bush's dangerous and irresponsible use of the term
"crusade" last weekend -- apparently unaware of what "the Crusades" were in history --
should have been a clear warning sign to the world that the American President and his
team (the same team which helped allow our world to reach this potentially cataclysmic
period in history) are not nearly as aware and not nearly as capable as they profess
to be when carefully reading from prepared scripts.
The U.S. is risking weaking the legitimacy of some of the key governments and
regions in the world in what actually is in fact its renewed crusade to enforce a New
World Order come what may. Pakistan is already unstable; and there is also growing
tension in the former eastern area of Pakistan, Bangladesh. Even Egypt has already
refused to join the new "coalition" and has rather defiantly enhanced its relations
with Iraq in a clear signal to the the U.S. and Israel to rethink what appears to be
the developing plan to use overwhelming military force to put a new government in
Baghdad soon after doing so in Afghanistan.
Others in the world more insulated from the pressures and inadequacies of American
society should now be urgently stepping forward so that some day in the future
historians will not have to write "The Guns of September".
EGYPT REJECTS U.S. COALITION, UPGRADES TIES WITH IRAQ
[Middle East NewsLine - Cairo - Friday, 21 Sept 2001]: As a policy debate rages at
top levels in the Bush administration over attacking the regime of President Saddam
Hussein, Egypt is moving to improve relations with Iraq. Egyptian diplomats said
President Hosni Mubarak plans to raise the level of representation between Baghdad and
Cairo to the level of ambassador. They said diplomatic ties would be raised
commensurate to the level of trade relations. Egypt has refused to participate in a
U.S.-led military coalition against any Saudi billionaire fugitive Osama Bin Laden or
any of his government sponsors. Instead, Mubarak has called for a United
Nations-sponsored conference on international terrorism... Egypt has sent a new charge
d'affaires to Baghdad.
JANES' FOREIGN REPORTS - 20 September 2001
OVERT ASSISTANCE FROM PAKISTAN MAY BRING DIRE CONSEQUENCES
As the United States plans its military response to last
week’s terrorist attacks in New York and Washington, the
role of Pakistan — and the position of the country’s
unelected military leader, General Pervez Musharraf — have
become key questions. JID investigates and warns that,
should the general fall as a result of offering overt support
to the USA in its campaign against the Taliban, the
consequences – both for the US-led alliance and the entire
region – could be potentially catastrophic.
There are many reasons why the present crisis will prove
deeply troubling for Pakistan’s self-appointed president.
Having started the year with the prospect of building a new
and more positive relationship with the incoming
administration of US President George W. Bush, pressure is
now mounting on Musharraf as embarrassing evidence of
Islamabad’s active support for the Taliban regime in
neighbouring Afghanistan comes under intense scrutiny.
One of the more difficult issues which the general may have
to explain is the close links between two Islamic militant
groups involved in the Kashmir region and the world’s
most wanted terrorist, Osama Bin Laden. The two groups in
question, Harkat-ul-Mujahideen and Lashkar-e Tayyiba,
were specifically singled-out in the US State Department’s
Report on the Patterns of Global Terrorism for 2000.
Although, the Pakistani government has repeated denied
that it has any involvement with these two groups, credible
intelligence community sources point to close ties between
senior members of Pakistan’s military and security services
and both organisations.
Other awkward questions will focus on allegations that
Pakistan has hosted training camps for militant Islamic
groups and provided them with financial assistance —
charges which Musharraf’s officials have repeatedly denied
— and that Pakistan has been used as the regular transit
route via which Bin Laden’s Al-Qa’eda group has travelled.
In particular, there are serious allegations that Pakistan’s
Inter-Service Intelligence organisation has active links with
both the Taliban regime’s intelligence service and Bin
Laden himself.
According to local intelligence sources, the Pakistani
authorities have provided medical facilities for the ailing Bin
Laden, including renal dialysis, at a military hospital in
Peshawar. None of this will be unfamiliar to US intelligence
operatives who have been compiling extensive reports on
these alleged activities. However, it is becoming clear that
both the Taliban and Al-Qa’eda would have found it
difficult to have continued functioning — including the
latter group’s terrorist activities — without substantial aid
and support from Islamabad. This would, logically, place
Pakistan in the category of “states which support
terrorism”, according to the US government’s definition.
President Bush’s pointed warnings to Bin Laden’s backers
will have put Musharraf on the spot.
The key question is not whether Pakistan will support the
US anti-Taliban coalition, but only how far the general will
dare to go in his desperate efforts to make amends for past
activities that have been very well documented by US
intelligence. Above all, Musharraf will realise that having
come to power in 1999 by means of a military coup d’etat,
he will have to rely on the continued support of Pakistan’s
army and security services — both of which are alleged to
have close links with the US’s principal targets.
In broad terms, the US administration has three main
options for military action against the Taliban and its
notorious ‘guest’:
1. Launch a general air-campaign against Taliban targets
(government offices, strategic facilities, military forces etc)
2. Undertake selective targeting of Bin Laden’s bases and
associated locations
3. Attempt a very specific ‘smash and grab’ raid, probably
by helicopter and involving special forces, to seize or kill
Bin Laden.
Having launched an ill-fated Cruise missile strike against
Bin Laden in 1998, the US cannot risk a repeat mission that
fails to hit its main target yet again. Therefore, highly
detailed information about his movements will be essential
and Pakistan’s intelligence service is very well placed to
provide this, not least because of its alleged links to the
man and his Al-Qa’eda organisation.
For Musharraf, the risks are enormous whichever course he
ultimately adopts. Failure to co-operate fully with the US
will leave Pakistan isolated and perhaps lead to even tighter
and more damaging international sanctions. On the other
hand, he is under intense domestic pressure, not least from
within his own armed forces. There is also the issue of the
militant Islamic groups in Kashmir to consider.
What makes the situation even more critical is that Pakistan
is one of the world’s nuclear powers. Although as JID has
previously pointed out, there are serious limitations on the
country’s nuclear delivery systems, Islamabad may have
around 25 nuclear missiles at its immediate disposal (see JID
9 June 2000). While it is highly unlikely that the present
Pakistani government would actually resort to the use of
such weapons unless in response to an overwhelming
military attack, there is no guarantee that a pro-Taliban
regime in Islamabad would act with similar restraint.
General Musharraf came to power with the support of
Pakistan’s military. He is extremely vulnerable if the army, or
at least a significant element of it, turns against him. If he
were to be ousted during an anti-Western, pro-Taliban
uprising organised by an alliance between Kashmiri
militants and nationalist military officers, then the prospect
of a full-scale regional conflagration might become very
real.
BANGLADESH DAILY SAYS U.S. MAY PROVOKE WORLD WAR
DHAKA, Sept 21 (Reuters) - A Bangladesh newspaper known as a mouthpiece of the
country's hardline Islamic groups said on Friday that President George W. Bush's
threat to avenge attacks on New York and Washington could provoke a world war.
"The United States appears to be plotting to launch a world war by declaring a crusade
against Muslims on the pretext of avenging terror attacks on the World Trade Center
(WTC) and the Pentagon," the daily Inqilab said.
"The U.S. and its allies are attempting to strike Islamic states, bypassing the United
Nations Security Council," said the paper which has a large leadership among the
country's orthodox Muslims.
President Bush has named Saudi exile Osma bin Laden, who has taken shelter in
Afghanistan, as the prime suspect for the September 11 attacks that have left more
than 6,000 people missing presumed dead.
Bangladesh had promised full cooperation to the United States in case of a military
offensive against Afghanistan, and said it would allow Washington to use its airspace,
ports and other facilities in a fight against terrorism.
The decision has sparked angry protests by the country's radical Islamic groups, which
have urged Washington "not to go for any hasty reprisal based on unsubstantiated proof
of bin Laden's involvement in the attacks on the WTC and the Pentagon."
Protesters in Bangladesh, one of the world's most populous Muslim countries, have
burned U.S. flags and effigies of Bush and threatened to join a "jihad" or holy war
which the Taliban have vowed to launch in the wake of any U.S. offensive.
"The Bangladesh government has acted against the interest of the country by permitting
the U.S. to use its facilities," the Inqilab said.
Bangladesh's major political parties have supported the decision made by the country's
caretaker government which took office in July, as required by the constitution, to
oversee a general election on October 1.
The independent Daily Ittefaq, however, said Bangladesh had no alternative but to
accept the U.S. request to join the global coalition to fight terrorism.
It said Bangladesh needs to protect its multi-billion dollar exports of ready made
garments to the United States and bank on U.S. support for development.
Shafi Sami, special assistant on foreign affairs to the caretaker government, headed
by former chief justice Latifur Rahman, said the United States has yet to spell out
its exact plans for using Bangladesh facilities.
KREMLIN FEARS CENTRAL ASIA TINDEROX
By Ben Aris in Moscow
[The Telegraph, UK, 9/21/2000]:
RUSSIA was still undecided over offering practical
help to any
American strike against Afghanistan because it fears
that this could
destabilise the whole of Central Asia.
Igor Ivanov, the foreign minister, hinted on Tuesday
that Russia
might allow US forces to use bases in the former
Soviet republics of
Central Asia, but he seemed to step back from his
remarks yesterday.
The Kremlin is concerned that an attack on
Afghanistan could fuel
Islamic uprisings across the Central Asian states
which still look to
Moscow as the dominant power in the region.
The most likely centre of operations the United
States would prefer
is Tajikistan, which has a large Russian base only
60 miles from the
Afghan border.
The Tajiks have only recently emerged from a
five-year civil war and
Russian troops are there to support the local
government and ensure
stability as much as to protect the border.
The country is still troubled by outbreaks of
violence led by regional
warlords and disgruntled United Tajik Opposition
guerrilla leaders,
who oppose the current government.
Thanks to the presence of Russian troops the Tajik
government has
regained some sort of control over the country.
However, guerrilla fighters who have been backed
into a corner during
the intermittent fighting have begun spilling over
the border into
neighbouring republics.
Last August, Kyrgyzstan was raided by Islamic rebels
coming across
the Tajik border. They captured a group of Japanese
geologists who
were looking for gold in the mountains and four US
mountaineers
who were on holiday in the region.
With an economy reeling from sustained droughts and
its people on
the point of starvation in some southern areas, the
tiny Kyrgyz army
is ill-equipped to fight battle-hardened rebels or a
sustained campaign
against incursions.
The spread of Tajik rebels has also worried
Uzbekistan. North-west
Tajikistan includes the head of the fabled Fergana
valley, the only
really fertile place in Central Asia.
Alexander the Great passed through the valley on his
way to India
and commented on the abundance of melons and grapes,
which still
grow there.
To add to the confusion almost all the regional
nationalities are
present in the Fergana valley with little regard for
the political
borders artificially created by Stalin decades ago.
Kyrgyzstan also straddles the Fergana valley, the
bulk of which lies
in Uzbekistan.
Afraid that rebels would pass down the valley into
their country, the
Uzbeks sent fighter planes into Kyrgyz territory
last year to bomb
rebel positions, to the outrage of the Kyrgyz
government.
However, the Uzbek fears are well justified as
president Islam
Karimov, a virtual dictator, narrowly survived an
assassination
attempt in December 1999 when Islamic extremists
exploded five car
bombs in Tashkent, the capital.
Mr Karimov has tried to repress Islam in his
country, but with only
limited success. Samarkand, in the middle of
Uzbekistan, is an
important holy city in the Islamic world.
Uzbekistan's large Muslim population is concentrated
in the Fergana
valley, the scene of frequent police raids where
human rights groups
say a man can be arrested for little more than
having a beard.
There is an uneasy peace but analysts have been
warning for years of
the "explosion of the Fergana valley", a popular and
religiously
motivated uprising against Mr Karimov's
authoritarian rule.
What the Kremlin and the leaders of Tajikistan,
Kyrgyzstan and
Uzbekistan fear most is a flood of rebel fighters
spilling out of
Afghanistan and into their countries.
This would be a spark to set off the tinderbox of
religious dissent all
along the Fergana valley.
SUPPORT FOR BIN LADEN IN INDONESIA INDICATES POSSIBLE SPREAD OF VIOLENCE
By JAY SOLOMON
[THE WALL STREET JOURNAL - YOGYAKARTA, Indonesia, 21 Sept] -- Radical Islamic groups
in the world's most populous Muslim nation are rallying in support of Osama bin Laden,
illustrating how last week's deadly violence in the U.S. could spread even to
traditionally moderate Muslim countries in Asia.
Western intelligence officials believe a number of these Indonesian Islamic
organizations have links to Mr. bin Laden and other suspected international terrorist
networks, due to their ties to Afghanistan and their history of using violence. The
leaders of these Muslim groups say it is their shared religious ideology, rather than
any organizational links, that is driving their support for the Saudi exile and
militant Islamist, whom Washington has named as a prime suspect in Sept. 11's
terrorist attacks on the World Trade Center and the Pentagon.
The Laskar Jihad is the most prominent of these Islamic organizations, because of its
role over the past two years in mobilizing thousands of recruits to take part in a
sectarian conflict in eastern Indonesia that has left thousands dead. Its commander,
Ja'far Umar Thalib, fought alongside the mujahedeen in Afghanistan as a volunteer in
the late 1980s, against the Soviet Union. The group's founder, Ayip Syafruddin, says
Mr. Ja'far also met with Mr. bin Laden and studied among many of his contemporaries
while in Pakistan.
The Laskar Jihad, or "militia of the holy war," has capitalized on its Afghan links by
recruiting more than a dozen Afghan nationals to fight in the sectarian conflict in
Indonesia's Maluku islands, according to Western intelligence officials in Jakarta.
Mr. Ayip wouldn't confirm this, but did say that the Laskar Jihad has recruited
veterans of conflicts in Afghanistan and Pakistan as "trainers" for their militia
members. Mr. Ayip stressed, however, that his organization has no "structural links"
to Mr. bin Laden or his al Qaeda organization.
Mr. Ja'far said in an interview that there is a wide ideological gap between his group
and Mr. bin Laden's. "Bin Laden feels that all non-Islamic people are his enemies, but
we feel this is wrong … We will not support the terror he's launched."
A number of Western officials, however, are still worried that the Laskar Jihad and
other militant Islamic groups could foment a backlash against U.S. interests in
Indonesia, should Washington strike Afghanistan or other Middle Eastern countries. A
string of bombings has rocked the Indonesian capital of Jakarta over the past year,
some of which are alleged to have been committed by Islamic organizations. And the
U.S. embassy has been shut on two separate occasions because of "credible evidence" of
planned terrorist attacks, according to the U.S. State Department.
A Sunday rally in the central Javanese city of Solo underpinned these fears, as 2,000
members of fundamentalist Islamic groups gathered to voice their support for Mr. bin
Laden's cause and their antipathy toward the U.S. "Bin Laden is fighting for our
beliefs … so we must support his struggle if possible," Abu Bakar Baasir, a leader of
the Laskar Mujahedeen task force, told the gathering. "We could help Afghanistan in
defending attacks launched by the U.S. government."
The central region of Java island, Indonesia's most populous, is viewed as a breeding
ground for the Islamic militancy that is growing in a country that still holds largely
to moderate religious views. Indeed, in the province of Yogyakarta, a sultan still
holds power. And in the city of Solo, royal palaces dot the landscape, signifying its
feudal, rather than Islamic, traditions. But residents say the fall of former
Indonesian strongman Suharto in 1998 unleashed long-suppressed religious sympathies in
the area.
The formation of the Laskar Jihad is seen as a prime example of this trend. Mr.
Ja'far, according to his associates, was a little-known Islamic cleric in the
mid-'90s, who traveled the country preaching the importance of Islamic laws. Such
proselytizing was largely anathema under the Suharto regime, which had a history of
suppressing fundamentalist Islamic movements, often violently.
The catalyst for the Laskar Jihad, senior members say, was the escalating war that
broke out between Christians and Muslims on the eastern Indonesian island of Ambon in
early 1999. Declaring that Indonesian authorities weren't doing enough to safeguard
Muslim interests there, Mr. Ja'far and his supporters quickly set up recruitment camps
and training centers for Indonesians willing to fight in the conflict. Thousands were
shipped off to the Maluku islands, the archipelago where Ambon lies. The Laskar Jihad
has now widened its efforts to embrace the conflict raging in the city of Poso in
central Sulawesi.
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