-Caveat Lector- WJPBR Email News List [EMAIL PROTECTED] Peace at any cost is a prelude to war! STRATFOR.COM Global Intelligence Update December 14, 1999 U.S. Weighs Cost of Involvement After FARC Attack Summary: Guerrillas of the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) overran a Colombian naval base near the Panamanian border on Dec 12. The raid highlights a new lack of Colombian military intelligence and is likely to precipitate calls for increased military aid to both Colombia and Panama. The incident will likely result in more U.S. intelligence aid to Colombia and force a reevaluation of U.S. involvement in both countries. Analysis: On Dec. 13, the Colombian Defense Ministry confirmed reports in the Colombian newspapers El Tiempo and El Universal that at least 34 Marines, one policeman and a civilian, were killed and at least 40 Marines were wounded after more than 600 FARC guerrillas attacked a Colombian naval base Dec. 12. The assault demonstrates how a reduction in U.S. intelligence aid to Colombia has left that country's military more vulnerable, which may increase pressure for more U.S. aid to both Colombia and Panama. The attack on the base, located in the Pacific coast town of Jurado near the Panamanian border, came just two days before a formal ceremony in Panama marking the U.S. handover of the Panama Canal. It was the heaviest attack this year and coincided with a wave of other clashes over the weekend in northwest and western Colombia. In a separate incident in San Luis, in neighboring Antioquia province, rebels killed eight police and two town hall officials. The area around Jurado, a key staging post for arms and drugs, has a heavy guerrilla and paramilitary presence and is 150 miles from the Panama Canal, separated by the nearly impenetrable jungles of the Darien province. Earlier this year, some U.S. military authorities had warned that Colombian guerrillas, who hold sway in the border area, could launch attacks inside Panama and even on the Canal itself once the U.S. pullout was complete. But, the guerrillas have long been in the territory, and this recent attack does not signal any particular increase in the threat they pose to the canal. The potential for increased FARC presence in Panama Canal Zone is not the direct issue. The real issue from the Colombian perspective is the new lack of adequate intelligence on rebel movement. Almost certainly as a result of U.S. intelligence aid, the Colombian military foiled at least two major FARC offensives last summer. The first incident occurred in the run-up to peace talks when the FARC attempted to strike at the mountain headquarters of paramilitary leader Carlos Castano. They were quickly intercepted and driven back by Colombian army troops. The second incident occurred following the postponement of peace talks when a column of FARC guerrillas marching on Bogota was intercepted and routed by the Colombian Army. [ http://www.stratfor.com/services/giu/072999.ASP ] But since the crash of a U.S. RC-7B intelligence gathering aircraft in southern Colombia in late July, the Colombian military has carried out no other major offensives. Prior to the employment of the RC-7B, the kind of rebel attack launched against the naval base was becoming all too common. The Colombian military was attacked in its barracks at Mitu and Miraflores, and its columns were regularly ambushed. Improved U.S.-provided intelligence support, however, seemed to have turned the tide of the war, allowing the Colombian military to carry out two massive ambushes of its own. >From the U.S. perspective, the issue is the attack's proximity to Panama. It serves as a signal to the United States that its increased involvement in the Colombian drug war has to be weighed against a potential rebel threat to Panama, which has no standing military of its own. U.S. involvement in Colombia has been growing rapidly since Colombian President Andres Pastrana's ascension to office, while U.S. forces are drawing down in Panama. FARC has tried to draw the United States into its war with the Colombian government. Its latest attack will pressure the U.S. government to either increase its presence in Panama or increase its military aid to Colombia. Either case works to FARC's favor in that it heightens U.S. involvement in Colombia and thus leaves the Clinton administration's policy in question. This attack and its success will also strengthen the hands of those in Colombia and the United States who want to see an increased U.S. presence in Colombia and an extended U.S. presence in Panama. Most certainly, it will at the very least immediately result in increased U.S. intelligence aid to Colombia. It exposed the massive intelligence deficit faced by the Colombians at a time when the U.S. lost its primary asset in Colombia, the RC-7B, and in Panama, Howard Air Base. The incident will force a reevaluation of U.S. involvement in both countries. (c) 1999, Stratfor, Inc. http://www.stratfor.com/ **COPYRIGHT NOTICE** In accordance with Title 17 U. S. C. Section 107, any copyrighted work in this message is distributed under fair use without profit or payment to those who have expressed a prior interest in receiving the included information for nonprofit research and educational purposes only.[Ref. http://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/17/107.shtml ] DECLARATION & DISCLAIMER ========== CTRL is a discussion and informational exchange list. Proselyzting propagandic screeds are not allowed. Substance—not soapboxing! These are sordid matters and 'conspiracy theory', with its many half-truths, misdirections and outright frauds is used politically by different groups with major and minor effects spread throughout the spectrum of time and thought. That being said, CTRL gives no endorsement to the validity of posts, and always suggests to readers; be wary of what you read. CTRL gives no credeence to Holocaust denial and nazi's need not apply. Let us please be civil and as always, Caveat Lector. ======================================================================== Archives Available at: http://home.ease.lsoft.com/archives/CTRL.html http:[EMAIL PROTECTED]/ ======================================================================== To subscribe to Conspiracy Theory Research List[CTRL] send email: SUBSCRIBE CTRL [to:] [EMAIL PROTECTED] To UNsubscribe to Conspiracy Theory Research List[CTRL] send email: SIGNOFF CTRL [to:] [EMAIL PROTECTED] Om
