-Caveat Lector- US Downplays China Missile Test By GEORGE GEDDA .c The Associated Press WASHINGTON (AP) - The State Department said Monday it did not believe China's test of a new long-range missile was related to agitation over recent pro-independence statements by Taiwan. ``We do not have any basis to conclude that the timing of this launch is linked to the issues with Taiwan,'' spokesman James P. Rubin said. He said the test firing had been expected for some time. Rubin also noted that the administration informed Congress on Friday of its intention to sell E2-T early warning aircraft and aircraft spare parts to Taiwan for an estimated $550 million. He said the weapons are for defense only and are consistent with long-standing rules governing military transfers to Taiwan. ``We have supplied aircraft spare parts to Taiwan for 20 years,'' Rubin said. ``Taiwan already has E2-T aircraft in its inventory. So there is nothing of a new character here that's a dramatic new development.'' Rubin added that the missile China tested Monday is of approximately the same range as already existing missiles in China's arsenal. The reported range is about 5,000 miles, and it's apparently capable of carrying a 1,500-pound weapon, he said. ``There's nothing new about China having medium- and long-range missiles. They've had them for a long, long time,'' he added. Two U.S. Navy missile-tracking ships, the USNS Observation Island and the USNS Invincible, were positioned to collect data on the missile launch but were foiled by bad weather, a senior defense official said. The ships apparently remain in the area and could be used to monitor an expected test launch of a North Korean ballistic missile, although the timing of the test remains uncertain. Rubin said the administration is far more concerned about the missile program in North Korea because, unlike China's, it is in the development stage. North Korea generated alarm in northeast Asia a year ago by launching a three-stage rocket, firing it through Japanese air space. Administration officials believe North Korea is preparing for a launch of a longer range missile this year. U.S. concerns about North Korea are expected to be aired later this week when American and North Korean diplomats meet in Geneva in advance of a resumption of talks Thursday aimed at reaching a Korean peninsula peace agreement. Those talks will involve the two Koreas, the United States and China. There has been some progress on procedural issues at the five previous rounds of the four-party talks but virtually no progress on substance. During the bilateral meeting with North Korea, the U.S. side will register with the North Koreans its ``strong concerns'' about a possible new missile test, Rubin said. He recalled that Secretary of State Madeleine Albright said during a visit to Singapore last week that there are opportunities for warmer relations with the North Koreans if there can be some accommodation over their missiles and weapons programs. ``I think the message to North Korea in the bilateral meeting will involve this positive potential for the future, as well as making clear our serious concerns about the missile test if it occurs,'' he said. China Sends Blunt Warning to Taiwan By ELAINE KURTENBACH .c The Associated Press BEIJING (AP) - It was just one sentence carried on the state news agency: China carried out a missile test Monday in its own backyard. But the message was fired straight at Taiwan. Once again, Beijing is using missile tests and war games to intimidate the island it views as a rebel province. Angered by Taiwanese President Lee Teng-hui's insistence that the rival governments should deal with each other as one state to another, China has turned up the pressure. Analysts say attacking Taiwan would be too costly diplomatically, militarily and economically. So instead, China is relying on war games and other forms of muscle-flexing to threaten the island that has eluded its authority since the two split in 1949 in the Chinese civil war. Blockading ports and harassing shipping are Beijing's most effective option for squeezing Taiwan, as illustrated Saturday, when Chinese police seized a Taiwanese cargo ship carrying rice, gasoline and food to troops on Taiwan's military outpost of Matsu. The ship's 10 crew members were detained, accused of smuggling. As in 1995-96, when an infuriated Beijing fired missiles in waters just off Taiwan, China's People's Liberation Army has stepped up military maneuvers along the southeast coast that faces the island. China's normally secretive state press has reported on war games focused on high-tech warfare, sea conflicts and invasions. China-allied newspapers in Hong Kong have gone further, leaking reports of a military alert and troop movements in southeastern Fujian province. Taiwanese military officials and Western diplomats say they have not detected such movements. But such reports rattle Taiwanese nerves. A blackout Friday in Taiwan's capital, Taipei, prompted speculation about the ability of China to paralyze the island without even sending troops. Taiwan's jittery stock market plunged 1.78 percent Monday following Hong Kong reports of a military alert. Military analysts had anticipated that China would test a new long-range missile this summer, possibly the Dongfeng 31 intercontinental missile. Although such tests usually are secret, this time Beijing was expected to publicize the launch to apply extra pressure on Taiwan. Xinhua's report said Monday's test of a long-range missile was conducted in Chinese territory. No other details were given. In Washington, a senior U.S. defense official, who spoke on condition of anonymity, confirmed the missile was a Dongfeng 31, which has a range of about 4,300 miles. The rail-mobile, three-stage, solid-propellant missile is designed to carry nuclear warheads. It was launched from the Wuzhi Space and Missile Center and traveled about 1,100 miles, according to the defense official. State Department spokesman James P. Rubin said the test firing had been expected for some time. ``We do not have any basis to conclude that the timing of this launch is linked to the issues with Taiwan,'' Rubin said. Given the mere 90-mile distance between China and Taiwan, long-range missiles probably would not directly affect the island. But they could pose a threat to the United States, which, to Beijing's annoyance, is committed by law to help Taiwan defend itself. On Monday, China's Foreign Ministry summoned the No. 2 U.S. diplomat in Beijing, Charge d'Affaires James Moriarty, to protest U.S. plans to sell early-warning aircraft and parts for F-16 fighters to Taiwan, Xinhua reported. It quoted Vice Foreign Minister Yang Jiechi as saying the $550 million sale would inflame tensions between China and Taiwan and ``cause serious harm to U.S.-Chinese relations.'' However, Rubin said the weapons are for defense only and are consistent with longstanding rules governing military transfers to Taiwan. China's 2.7 million-member People's Liberation Army is not believed capable of invading the island, and Taiwan's better- equipped air force can control the skies over the Taiwan Strait, which divides it from the mainland. China is thought to have an edge in missile technology that could cripple Taiwan's defenses by hitting airfields, ports and other key facilities. China has concentrated on developing short-range ballistic missiles, anti-ship cruise missiles and long-range land-attack cruise missiles. To counter Taiwan's acquisition of new air defense systems similar to the Patriot surface-to-air missiles used during the Persian Gulf War, China has been developing air-to-air missiles that by 2005 may exceed Taiwan's. Military analysts say threatening a missile attack may be more effective for China than actually carrying one out. Attacking would strain relations with Washington and increase pressure for Taiwan to expand anti-missile defenses, which China doesn't want. Whether China gets more aggressive depends on politics on both sides. Lee's push for greater recognition for Taiwan's separate status has appealed to many on the island. They regard it as a reflection of reality. So far, his government has given no indication it will back down. As in 1995-1996, China is likely to adopt a strategy calculated to undermine support for those who back independence and oppose reunification with the mainland. Chinese President Jiang Zemin's power base is much stronger than in 1996, and he may resist military calls for taking stronger action so long as Taiwan does not ``cross the line'' by openly seeking independence, says Robert Karniol, Asia Pacific editor at Jane's Defense Weekly. ``There's no way for anybody to predict how the Chinese will react,'' Karniol said. ``I don't think the Chinese themselves have figured it out.'' DECLARATION & DISCLAIMER ========== CTRL is a discussion and informational exchange list. Proselyzting propagandic screeds are not allowed. Substance—not soapboxing! These are sordid matters and 'conspiracy theory', with its many half-truths, misdirections and outright frauds is used politically by different groups with major and minor effects spread throughout the spectrum of time and thought. 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