-Caveat Lector-
Panel finds CIA soft on China
By Bill Gertz
THE WASHINGTON TIMES
Numerous classified intelligence reports on China, including those on
Chinese military and security issues, were reviewed by a 12-member
commission and found to be flawed, according to U.S. government officials
and outside experts close to the panel.
The commission concluded in a final report that China-related CIA
intelligence reports and programs suffered from an "institutional
predisposition" to play down or misinterpret national security problems
posed by Beijing's communist regime.
The commission also said CIA analysts had "overreached" in making many
incorrect or misleading assessments about China's military and political
activities.
The conclusions of the commission are contained in a classified report.
The commission was headed by retired Army Gen. John Tilelli, a former
commander of U.S. forces in Korea.
"There were numerous instances where [CIA analysts] just missed it,"
said one official who has read the report.
The commission included several academics such as Harvard University
professor Stephen Rosen, Princeton University professor Aaron Friedberg and
University of Pennsylvania professor Arthur Waldron, as well as former
Ambassador to China James Lilley. Peter Rodman, a current nominee for
assistant defense secretary also took part, as did retired Army Col. Larry
Wortzel, a former attache in China who is currently with the Heritage
Foundation.
The panel met three times with CIA Director George J. Tenet. CIA sources
said Mr. Tenet tried unsuccessfully to persuade the commission to soften
its findings, arguing that its findings would fuel critics of the agency.
One of those critics is Sen. Richard C. Shelby, Alabama Republican and the
vice chairman of the Senate Intelligence Committee, who took the lead in
pushing for the CIA to form the "competitive analysis"
commission.
Mr. Shelby said in an interview that the CIA has "not viewed China in a
realistic way." "They have tried to look the other way when China, in my
opinion, may be moving toward a belligerent stand, if not attitude,"
Mr. Shelby said. "They are always looking the other way to put their spin
on the U.S.-Chinese relationship, that everything is going well in the long
run.
"It's just not very real. China is, has been and I believe will be a big
competitor of ours, economically, militarily, politically, in every
respect. They could be our biggest adversary. They are certainly not our
strategic partner as Clinton and Gore would lead you to believe." A
Pentagon report issued in December by the Office of Net Assessment, headed
by long-time defense strategist Andrew Marshall, also criticized U.S.
intelligence shortfalls on China. The report said the Pentagon could not
predict the outcome of a conflict between China and Taiwan because of major
"intelligence gaps." CIA China analysts and senior officials, including Mr.
Tenet, declined to be interviewed. A CIA spokesman denied that its analysts
were biased and said they "call them as they see them." One China
specialist, who spoke on the condition of anonymity, said the most serious
problem of the China analysts at the CIA is their failure to recognize the
growing danger of a Sino-U.S. war.
"War is a come-as-you-are party, and the Chinese are thinking about that
very seriously," the specialist said. "The problem is you can't find those
guys at CIA thinking about it." Official statements about the possibility
of military conflict between Washington and Beijing have been dismissed by
senior CIA analysts as hollow rhetoric, the specialist said.
While most of the analyses reviewed by the panel are classified, some of
the CIA China division's work is public. Based on published materials and
interviews with officials who have seen its classified studies, the
following problems were identified to The Washington Times:
The CIA provided poor analytical support to the White House during the
recent Hainan island incident. Agency analysts failed to properly predict
Beijing's reactions in the aftermath of a collision between a U.S. EP-3E
surveillance plane and a Chinese F-8 fighter jet over the South China Sea,
in which 24 American service members were held hostage on Hainan island.
The CIA's top analyst on Chinese foreign policy, Paul Heer, reported in the
journal Foreign Affairs last year that the idea there are divisions within
the Chinese leadership between hard-liners and centrists is a "false
dichotomy" that is "misguided and even dangerous."
His view reflects classified CIA analysis that came under fire from the
Tilelli commission and is contrary to the widespread views within other
U.S. intelligence agencies that major internal divisions do exist within
Beijing's communist regime. Mr. Heer believes "competing schools of thought
coexist" within institutions and leaders.
The CIA has failed to conduct a thorough analysis of Chinese military
inroads into Latin America, despite Beijing's recent agreement with Havana
to begin upgrading military equipment to Cuba, visits by senior Chinese
military leaders to the region and other activities in the hemisphere. The
agency's reporting is said to lag behind those of the U.S. Southern
Command, the Pentagon's Miami-based command responsible for Latin America.
In response to congressional pressure for better intelligence analysis on
China, the CIA intelligence directorate hired some 30 new analysts.
However, those hired were required to pass a litmus test to assure they
held views in tune with senior analysts who have a benign view of China.
Sensitive intelligence reports from the CIA Directorate of Operations and
the FBI were suppressed within the CIA intelligence directorate.
One U.S. intelligence official close to the CIA said the problem is that
senior analysts have not done enough to foster a diversity of views on
Chinese security issues.
"Their basic working assumption is that China must become a strategic
partner," this official said of the senior analysts. "Analysts are promoted
who hold those views."
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