-> SNETNEWS Mailing List What the Chinese might be thinking
J.R. Nyquist
© 2000 WorldNetDaily.com
A Chinese military document, which discusses China's ongoing confrontation with Taiwan, has recently received attention in the U.S. The document is addressed to the regional garrisons, general departments, armed services and corps-level headquarters of the People's Liberation Army. It explains China's policy and strategy in broad terms, so that all military commanders might understand the context of China's ongoing mobilization.
The document was drafted by the General Political Department of the PLA and approved by the Central Military Commission Conference. The document was titled, "Watching Closely for Changes in Relationships with Taiwan and Enhancing Awareness of Military Leadership in the Current Situation."
WorldNetDaily reporter Charles Smith has written a brief overview of the PLA document, outlining its contents. At this time it might be appropriate to take a closer look, in terms of China's strategic thinking. Where is the PLA headed? How does the PLA document relate to events in Russia? How do the Chinese view their chances of winning a future war against Taiwan or the United States?
The first and most notable assertion made in the PLA document, which runs contrary to what many of us previously believed, is that Taiwan can be rapidly overcome by a sudden PLA invasion. Given Taiwan's air power and the difficulties involved in assaulting an island with few easily invaded beaches, an attacking Chinese force could only be slaughtered. Yet the Chinese military leadership expects to defeat Taiwan within a few days.
It seems that China's leadership is unconcerned with the strength of Taiwan's defenses. They believe that "tactics and timing" are all that matter.
How can this be?
Even more surprising, the PLA leadership says that "it is better to fight now than in the future -- the earlier, the better." This suggests that Beijing views the current "correlation of forces" as advantageous. In other words, a window of military opportunity has opened up in the present.
In Western circles it is commonly thought that China will reach a military window of opportunity in five to 10 years. What accounts for the difference between the PLA's assessment and that of Western military experts? It would be logical to conclude that the PLA leaders know something that we don't. Apparently China has acquired capabilities or alliance guarantees that alter the present correlation of forces in China's favor. This is clearly indicated in the PLA document. This means that China's leaders expect to surprise the United States. Given the traditionally cautious behavior of Beijing oligarchs, more than one surprise would have to backstop a bold initiative like the invasion of Taiwan. Beijing cannot simply rely on one trump card.
A Western military expert might conclude that the Chinese are bluffing, that they have purposely released this PLA document to spook us -- to frighten us into backing down, so that they can swallow up Taiwan without risking a single soldier.
Of course, America should not overestimate China's power. That would be a mistake. But underestimating China would also be a mistake.
How do we evaluate Chinese military power in the current situation?
Consider the following factors: China has cleverly pocketed key American business people; China has benefited militarily and economically from shady dealings with the Clinton administration; China has also engaged in successful espionage against America's nuclear labs (as suggested in the Cox report); China's military leaders, working indirectly through front companies, now control the ports of entry at the Panama Canal -- a significant logistical choke-point.
Where is the bluff in all these moves?
Every item fits with a general pattern of painstaking strategic preparation. A path to victory has been paved in three dimensions simultaneously -- diplomatic, economic and military-technical. Every listed item has been crafted and orchestrated for a future moment of exploitation. And here is why the PLA thinks its window of opportunity has arrived. Eventually the Americans will realize that China has been positioning itself, just as former Chairman of the Joint Chiefs Adm. Thomas Moorer first pointed out. It is therefore only a matter of time before the Americans counter-act China's elaborate preparations. With Clinton's presidency coming to an end early next year, the best time to act is now. As more and more Americans realize the danger from China, this window of opportunity cannot remain open indefinitely. "Act sooner rather than later," say China's strategists. And this makes perfect sense.
There is also the question of North Korea's force mobilization -- an arduous undertaking with Beijing standing in the background. As this column pointed out on Thursday, Russia has been mobilizing as well, and rapidly modernizing its armed forces in the last 10 months. The fact of these mobilizations needs to be hammered home. It cannot be repeated often enough.
One would have to be blind to miss the pattern in all this. Let us not forget that Russia, China and North Korea are among the bitterest enemies America has ever known. In fact, we ought to wonder if the logic of this enmity has truly lapsed.
Why should it lapse?
America is in trouble. The present danger has not been realized. China's military leaders say they can blitz Taiwan -- and take it -- before the United States can bring up aircraft carriers and Marines. That is what the PLA document asserts. In other words, China expects to hold and defend Taiwan regardless of what America does. To this end the People's Liberation Army recently created a new operational headquarters to oversee the coordination of China's submarine fleet with the PLA's Second (missile) Artillery Command. New guided missile destroyers, purchased from Russia, will also be joining this group of forces. Their mission is to sink any approaching American carrier groups.
But aren't American carriers invulnerable to attack? Wouldn't America's high-tech ships and aircraft blow China's junky fleet out of the water?
Chinese ballistic missiles move faster than carrier aircraft. Long before an American air strike could be launched against China's missile bases and submarines, the Chinese missiles could launch their own attack -- against the American carriers.
And what kind of warheads would the Chinese put in their missiles?
Consider China's development of electromagnetic pulse (EMP) weapons. These are weapons that can fry the electrical infrastructure of a ship. EMP warheads can blow out military computers, radar systems and sensors. On Feb. 12 the PLA leadership called for "expedited development of electromagnetic pulse bombs and missiles as a means to destroy American aircraft carrier fleets." According to Chinese tactical theory, America's Achilles heel is in the "electronic gear" its forces increasingly rely upon. Knock out a carrier battle group's electronics and it becomes a sitting duck to attacks from guided missile destroyers and submarines.
As it happens, EMP weapons need not directly hit their target, but can be detonated dozens of miles away, to destroy the target's electronic nerve center. When an EMP weapon explodes, a powerful electromagnetic charge is produced which is absorbed by electronic equipment up to a certain distance. This charge acts as a power surge, with immediate destructive effects. According to one Chinese military writer, "If the central nervous system of an aircraft carrier is paralyzed, even a comparatively backward naval vessel ... will be able to attack (it)."
EMP weapons might also enable a successful invasion of Taiwan. Assuming the Taiwan air force has an electronic Achilles heel, like the U.S. Navy, a Chinese EMP strike could effectively cripple Taiwan's sophisticated fighters and bombers, so that the technologically inferior PLA air force, with 5,000 aircraft in position, could deliver a severe blow to the island's defenses. This would pave the way for PLA marine and paratroop landings. With its armed forces paralyzed and decimated, Taiwan would quickly collapse.
It should be noted that the PLA document we've been discussing, which asserts the PLA's ability to overrun Taiwan, was distributed to China's generals on Aug. 1, 1999. Coincidentally, that is when Russia suffered an unprecedented and unprovoked "Islamic incursion." Evidence suggests, however, that this was a contrived provocation to justify a nationwide Russian mobilization for the declared purpose of invading tiny Chechnya. Was China's mobilization, ostensibly due to an off-hand remark by the president of Taiwan, also contrived in the same sense? If so, the timing here suggests close coordination between Beijing and Moscow. In both capitals, an alleged internal crisis was used to cover general preparations for a conflict that might conceivably extend far beyond Chechnya and Taiwan.
Given the coincidence of Russian and Chinese "internal crises," assuming both countries are ready to risk war with America, what mechanism would be used to set events in motion?
As stated in the PLA document, since Taiwan refuses to surrender its independence as a state, China can initiate hostilities at will. It is only a question of tactics and timing. Whatever moment is chosen will be optimal from Beijing's point of view. If Moscow is consulted, as China clearly needs Russia's backing, then Moscow will also have some notion of an optimal moment for putting things into motion. If China's new battle tactics are successful, U.S. forces will enter the battle zone just as Taiwan has collapsed. At that point the United States will either accept the Chinese conquest of Taiwan as an accomplished fact, or the U.S. will launch punitive strikes against China's strategic infrastructure. This latter course was effective against Yugoslavia and Iraq, but it will not work against China.
The PLA leaders also believe, with absolute assurance, that Chinese forces will seriously damage any American naval group that refuses to withdraw from the Taiwan area. As the PLA document says, China is not a small country like Iraq or Yugoslavia. China's size and its willingness to suffer must be taken into account. Therefore, Beijing is confident that its forces will prevail regardless of the conflict's duration or intensity.
According to PLA strategists, if the United States attempts to use nuclear weapons to avoid defeat, China will not hesitate to wage a full-scale nuclear war. In the event of nuclear escalation, the General Political Department of the PLA says the Chinese generals "have built up the capability for second and third nuclear strikes, and are fairly confident in fighting a nuclear war."
In fact, a secret agreement between Russia and China, regarding a future nuclear war with the United States, might already be in place. This possibility has been suggested by Peter Vincent Pry, a nuclear war expert and former CIA analyst who now advises the House of Representatives. In recent months, high-level meetings between Russian and Chinese officials have been intensive and continuous.
It is doubtful that Russian and Chinese officials are merely discussing trade issues. Those who are able to detect an intrigue know that something more is going on.
History teaches that war is always inevitable. Somehow Americans have come to think that we are exempt from this inevitability. We talk of peace with murderers and gangsters. But peace with such people is always an illusion.
It is time to consider the big picture. We must dispense with our childish political illusions. We must hold fast to our allies and friends, and we must oppose our enemies. Of course, we have yet to acknowledge that our enemy exists. To be sure, he knows that we exist. And perhaps his job is to make us disappear.
J.R. Nyquist is a WorldNetDaily contributing editor and author of 'Origins of the Fourth World War.' -> Send "subscribe snetnews " to [EMAIL PROTECTED] -> Posted by: Roger Voss <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>
