-Caveat Lector-

                Airline disaster 'caused by
                terrorism'
                By Paul Marston and Toby Harnden in
                Washington



                AVIATION experts say sabotage is the
                likeliest cause of the EgyptAir disaster off the
                Atlantic coast of America, although
                mechanical failure is not being ruled out.

                The facts that the Boeing 767-300ER was
                cruising at 33,000ft when the disaster
                occurred, and that the flight crew could not
                issue a distress call, persuaded most airline
                engineers that some form of terrorist action
                was to blame.

                Cruising is regarded as the safest phase of
                flight: stresses on the aircraft's frame and
                mechanical equipment are lower than during
                take-off or landing. If a massive technical
                failure had occurred at such an altitude, the
                pilots, unless incapacitated, would have had
                time to alert air traffic control.

                The airliner's rate of descent was so fast and
                steep, 14,000ft in 36 seconds before
                transponder signals were lost, that it lends
                weight to the theory that the crew's loss of
                control was total and immediate. A bomb in
                the front of the forward hold, underneath the
                flight deck, could have destroyed the main
                electronics system.

                An explosion which breached the pressurised
                hull would also have had a catastrophic effect.
                The aircraft would have begun to descend very
                quickly and break up due to aerodynamic
                factors. In this case, the loss of control
                happened at 33,000ft and it began to break up
                at 19,100ft, 36 seconds later.

                A British Airways pilot said: "In view of the
                very sudden nature of what happened, an
                explosion of some sort, causing sudden loss of
                control, must be the most likely cause." One
                BA pilot said there had been repeated
                instances of poor security at Kennedy airport,
                New York, from which the aircraft took off 31
                minutes before the crash.

                In some cases, luggage had travelled on
                different aircraft from the passengers who
                owned it. He said: "Security at New York has
                been something of a joke. A cardinal rule of
                anti-terrorism is that passengers must travel
                with their baggage."

                The experience of Lockerbie and three
                subsequent mid-air bombings suggests that
                burn marks can be confined to the immediate
                vicinity of the device, while the presence of
                explosive residues in victims' bodies are likely
                to be found only after lengthy tests.

                The fact that no terrorist group had claimed
                responsibility was not seen as undermining a
                sabotage explanation. Prof Paul Wilkinson, of
                the Centre for the Study of Terrorism at St
                Andrews University, said the lack of credible
                claims after major outrages was not
                unusual.He said: "It's now quite common for
                state-sponsored terrorists to try to disguise
                their involvement. The point of their action is
                not publicity, but revenge or damage to
                confidence in the target country."

                Prof Wilkinson also criticised the slowness
                with which American airports and airlines had
                implemented improvements in security since
                the Pan Am bombing 11 years ago. He said:
                "Given that the US and US passengers are the
                number one target for international terrorist
                activities, it is surprising and worrying that
                there are quite serious loopholes in American
                aviation security."

                Chris Yates, editor of Jane's Airport Security
                magazine, said a US government report last
                year showed that new luggage-screening
                equipment at high-risk airports, including Los
                Angeles and Kennedy, was used for only a
                tiny minority of bags. The EgyptAir flight took
                on baggage at both airports.

                But some aviation analysts said the disaster
                might not have been caused by terrorism and
                drew parallels with the crash of another
                767-300ER eight years ago. The aircraft,
                belonging to Lauda Air, crashed in Thailand
                after an engine thrust-reverser suddenly
                activated itself about 20 minutes after take-off.
                All 223 people on board were killed.
                Modifications were ordered after the accident.



                © Copyright of Telegraph Group Limited 1999.


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