-Caveat Lector- > Publications of the Center for Security Policy > No. 99-D 90 > > ----------------------------------------------------------------- > > DECISION BRIEF > 13 August 1999 > > > Hard Questions About the Coming War in Colombia > > (Washington, D.C.): Over the past two nights, Dan Rather, > reporting from Colombia, has capped off the CBS Evening News with > a stark wake-up call: The United States is becoming increasingly > embroiled in the narcotics-underwritten mayhem that is engulfing > that Central American nation, putting vast quantities of drugs on > this country's streets and threatening to destabilize Colombia's > region from Brazil to Mexico. > > The Shape of Things to Come > > As the CBS broadcast of 11 August put it: > > "Very rapidly in recent weeks, the following things have happened > -- it appears suddenly -- to put Colombia very much on > Washington's radar screen: First, the crash of a US military > reconnaissance plane that killed five Americans on an anti-drug > mission last month. Two of the bodies were returned today. Then, > the sudden arrival of the Clinton administration's drug czar, > Barry McCaffrey, who, in a reversal of policy, called for up to > $1 billion to be spent fighting what he now calls > narco-guerrillas....The highest level talks in Bogota in a decade > were held this week between U.S. and Colombian officials. That > reflects general confidence in the new Colombian government, but > also alarm over the fact that an estimated 40 percent of the > country is already in rebel hands. > > "There is also a growing fear, even among government officials, > that the crisis in Colombia could spread to the surrounding > countries. These nations, many of which are newly established > democracies, including Ecuador, Peru, Brazil and possibly even > Venezuela and Panama, can not afford to have their fragile > democracies wrecked by insurgents as is happening in Colombia." > > This "fear" was most recently publically described by Assistant > Secretary of State for International Narcotics and Law > Enforcement Affairs Rand Beers in testimony on 6 August before > the Criminal Justice, Drug Policy and Human Resources > Subcommittee of the House Committee on Government Reform and > Oversight. Despite a determined effort to find grounds for > optimism, Secretary Beers opened his remarks to Congress by > declaring: > > "It is difficult to describe the current situation in Colombia > without sounding alarmist. Colombia's national sovereignty is > increasingly threatened by a resurgent guerilla movement, a > violent illegal paramilitary movement, and wealthy > narco-trafficker interests. Although the central government in > Bogota is not directly threatened at this time, control over > large swaths of the countryside is limited to non-existent. It is > in these very areas where the guerrilla groups, paramilitaries, > and narcotics traffickers flourish." > > A Need to Know > > Now that the American people and their elected representatives > are being encouraged to focus on the unraveling state of affairs > in Colombia, they are entitled to answers to, among others, the > following pertinent questions that have bearing on Clinton > Administration policies beyond Colombia: > > •What role, if any, is Fidel Castro's government currently > playing in aiding and abetting "narco-guerrillas" with which his > regime has had long-standing ties? At a minimum, according to a > 29 January article in the London Financial Times, the Colombian > drug traffickers are using Cuba as a drug market and as a favored > "cleansing route" employed to reduce the opportunities for > detection, contributing to what is said to be a > more-than-doubling during 1998 over previous years in the > frequency of drug cargoes dropped by air traffickers into Cuba > waters for pickup by smugglers. The principal destination for > such narcotics is the U.S. market. > > Were Castro to be exploiting this opportunity to achieve two of > his well-established objectives -- subverting democracies in > Latin America and inflicting harm on the United States -- the > case for rejecting the Clinton Administration's efforts to > normalize relations with his brutal totalitarian regime (the most > recent manifestation of which is the sanctioning of charter > flights to Cuba from New York and Los Angeles) is all the > stronger.(1) > > > •What part is Communist China playing in fomenting > narco-activities that are destabilizing a key country in the > hemisphere? China is no stranger to the drug trade. Its People's > Liberation Army has, for example, been actively exploiting the > PRC's de facto colony, Burma, for drug-running operations. In > addition, given China's warming relationship with Cuba -- China > is now using and improving the Cuban signals intelligence > facility in Lourdes -- and its desire to further entrench itself > in the United States' "backyard,"(2) it may become more closely > involved in the Colombian situation, if it has not already done > so. > > •To what extent is the Clinton Administration putting at risk > sensitive "sources and methods" of intelligence as part of its > reported program of providing Colombia with real-time > intelligence? The Administration has repeatedly seen > intelligence-sharing as a technique for endearing itself to those > like Russia, the UN, Cuba and the PLO that are more likely to use > such information against the United States and its vital > interests than be constructively influenced by this practice.(3) > Under its current president, Andres Pastrana, the Colombian > government may be less prone to such behavior than other > beneficiaries of what the Clinton team seems to regard as > noblesse oblige. > > Given that government's history of corruption, the suborning > influence of drug operatives and the incompetence of the > Colombian military, however, it is not unreasonable to question > whether American intelligence will be compromised by the > narco-guerrillas, or even foreign governments with whom they have > ties that are hostile the United States. > > > •Why is the Clinton Administration encouraging the Colombian > government to pursue a doomed "peace process" with the > insurgents? Although Secretary Beers told the Congress, "We have > made it very clear to the Pastrana government....that we cannot > accept 'peace at any price,'" the Clinton team's support for > negotiations between the Colombian government and the leftist > guerillas known as the FARC is likely to have the same result as > its encouragement of peace processes elsewhere: Generally, they > have the effect of making it more difficult, if not impossible, > to protect democratic societies and law-abiding populations > against the predations of those who employ violence to achieve > their ends. It seems likely that, in Colombia, such a false > "peace process" will only serve to make the country more > susceptible to total dominance by the narco-guerrillas and their > drug-lord backers. > > The Bottom Line > > Whatever the answer to these questions -- and whatever the > ultimate decisions about the nature and extent of U.S. > involvement in Colombia -- one conclusion seems inescapable: > Neither the cause of a secure democracy in Colombia nor the > United States' interest in promoting stability in the hemisphere > more generally and curbing the drug trade will be served by > completing America's withdrawal from the Panama Canal Zone at the > end of this year. > > Fortunately, incoming Panamanian President Mireya Moscosco has > signaled a welcome willingness to see an American presence in her > country, but only after the treaty is full implemented and all > American troops leave. Present circumstances in neighboring > Colombia -- to say nothing of the penetration of Panama by > enterprises with ominous ties to the Chinese military -- argue > for suspending the final stages of the withdrawal and retaining > U.S. bases in the Canal Zone from which to run counter-drug > operations, protect the Canal and, if necessary, project American > power. > > - 30 - > > 1. See the Casey Perspective entitled Administration Move To > Normalize Relations with Castro's Cuba Bucks Tide of History, > Business (No. 99-C 77, 8 July 1999). > > 2. See the Center's Security Forum entitled Carter-Clinton > Legacy: Chinese Penetration of Panama (J. Michael Waller, No. > 99-F 11, 10 August 1999). > > 3. See the Center's Decision Briefs entitled Mission Impossible: > Wye Deal Poses Threat to U.S. Intelligence -- As Well As Israeli > Security, American Interests (No. 98-D 178, 30 October 1998) and > Before U.S. Intelligence Can Be Reformed, The Clinton > Administration Must Stop Deforming it (No. 96-D 44, 6 May 1996). > > ----------------------------------------------------------------- > > NOTE: The Center's publications are intended to invigorate and > enrich the debate on foreign policy and defense issues. The views > expressed do not necessarily reflect those of all members of the > Center's Board of Advisors. > > Top of Page© 1988-1999, Center for Security Policy >From SecurityPolicy http://www.security-policy.org/papers/1999/99-D90.html A<>E<>R ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ The only real voyage of discovery consists not in seeking new landscapes but in having new eyes. -Marcel Proust + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + "Believe nothing, no matter where you read it, or who said it, no matter if I have said it, unless it agrees with your own reason and your common sense." --Buddha + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + A merely fallen enemy may rise again, but the reconciled one is truly vanquished. -Johann Christoph Schiller, German Writer (1759-1805) + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + It is preoccupation with possessions, more than anything else, that prevents us from living freely and nobly. -Bertrand Russell + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + "Everyone has the right...to seek, receive and impart information and ideas through any media and regardless of frontiers." 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