-Caveat Lector- The New Australian Domestic policy, 2000 and Clinton's Serbian folly By James Henry No. 117, 26 April - 2 May 1999 As the Serbian tragedy unfolds and Clinton's miscalculations become more painfully apparent with each passing day other questions are being raised about the economic and domestic political consequences of his Balkan 'policies'. Some readers believe that Clinton has become Gore's point man and that the war will help him promote Gore's electoral prospects. It is also believed that Clinton can use the war to keep the economy on boil right up to the 2000 election. One reader colorfully described this policy as "bomb 'em and feed 'em". Armament factories will be cranked up and food surpluses can be unloaded on to a hundreds of thousands of grateful refugees and a grateful electorate will vote Gore president, or some other Democrat. This is certainly a bleak scenario but one I believe to be totally out of place. Gore is not a popular politician and it is clear that his campaign, apart from the fund raising, is doing badly. Regardless of his best efforts he has not been able to distance himself from the smell of White House corruption, nor should he be allowed to do so. In addition, there is enough die-hard green ideology in his book Earth in the Balance to cause him considerable electoral pain. People closely connected with the Republicans tell me the Party intends to turn his book into a political millstone. It certainly wouldn't be too difficult. Cranking up the armaments industry at this stage would convey the impression to a very concerned public that Clinton was getting the country into a lengthy and bloody campaign. This is one impression he is desperate to avoid giving. There is also the time factor. These factories cannot be turned on and off like a tap. For example, it would take 18 months to 2 years to get cruise missile production lines fully operational, not to mention the time needed to re-man the services and build up combat readiness. As for comparing Kosovo with Vietnam, I think the appropriate comparison in military terms is Korea. However, I don't think Kosovo is going to another Korea. The expense and casualties would destroy the Democratic Party along with Clinton — no bad thing in my opinion. The economic angle is certainly erroneous. War materiel is costly. Implementing a rearmament's program means raising taxes, cutting welfare or both. Given the present high level of taxes, government spending and the influence of the welfare lobby the chances of the Democrats rebuilding America's defenses are slight. All of which is sweet irony. If the Democrats had maintained the military machine that Clinton inherited and then gutted and, at the very least, kept spending and taxes at the previous level they would not be facing this dilemma. Any attempt to fund rearmament out of the printing press, as was done with the Vietnam War, would meet strong resistance from Greenspan and particularly the money markets. It is overlooked by commentators that the Fed is already expanding the money supply by about 12 per cent a year. The vast majority of people do not realise just how dangerous for the economy this loose monetary policy really is. I'm glad to say that this is an extremely dangerous time for Clinton. His stupidity, corrupt behaviour and craving for a Roosevelt or Truman-like legacy has led the country into a Balkan folly. He is not likely to find himself caught between a Kosovo impasse and a recession at home. I do not know a single stockbroker who thinks the good times will last. Without exception, they believe that the economy has reached the peak of the business cycle. It is now, in their opinion, only a matter of time before the downturn strikes — and that will be before the 2000 election. Americans are going learn the hard way that character and sound judgement count in a president. Clinton's lack of both has cost this country dearly and it has not stopped paying the price in terms of moral capital and economic welfare. The ultimate price, however, might be measured in body bags. Let us pray it does not come to that. **COPYRIGHT NOTICE** In accordance with Title 17 U. S. C. Section 107, any copyrighted work in this message is distributed under fair use without profit or payment to those who have expressed a prior interest in receiving the included information for nonprofit research and educational purposes only.[Ref. http://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/17/107.shtml ] DECLARATION & DISCLAIMER ========== CTRL is a discussion and informational exchange list. 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