| -Caveat Lector-
Not an
oil-fired war
H. Sterling Burnett A number of politicians, media pundits and environmental special interest groups have claimed that if the United States goes to war with Iraq, it will be because President Bush is trying to gain control of that country's considerable oil reserves and infrastructure. Indeed, some people seem to believe that the only U.S. interest in the Middle East is to keep the Arab oil flowing.
A war in the Middle East will almost certainly
disrupt world oil supplies, contributing to higher, wildly fluctuating prices.
There is good reason to believe that Saddam Hussein will practice the same
scorched-earth policy in Iraq's oil fields that he practiced in Kuwait during
the Persian Gulf war. The fields would burn and the equipment and infrastructure
would be severely damaged if not completely destroyed, putting it out of use for
many years. In order to cause further chaos and divert U.S. resources, Iraq
might even attempt to damage oil fields in neighboring countries. Furthermore, an attack on Iraq will only serve
to exacerbate deteriorating U.S. relations with other oil-rich nations in the
region. Some oil-exporting countries — Iran, Libya and Nigeria, for instance —
already harbor grudges against the United States for past wrongs, both real and
imagined, and for our continued support for Israel. Meanwhile, other oil-rich
nations in the region who are usually our allies are concerned that siding with
the United States against Iraq will cause increased civil unrest — and perhaps
even foment armed rebellion. Going to war with Iraq wins us few friends with
other important oil exporters in the region. If you were only interested in maintaining a
regular, low-cost supply of oil from the Middle East, the best policy would be
to support the end of sanctions placed on Iraq at the end of the Gulf war. These
sanctions have constrained the amount of oil that Iraq could sell on the market,
and Saddam has deftly used the sanctions as an excuse to further impoverish
Iraqi civilians, which has hampered U.S. efforts to improve diplomatic relations
in Islamic countries. One simply cannot explain why in the face of mounting
international pressure to end the sanctions, the United States continued to
support them, that is if one truly believes that ensuring a plentiful supply of
oil is the primary motive for the Bush administration. The truth is many things have changed since the
Gulf war. The United States has dramatically diversified its sources of oil.
Because of capacity available elsewhere, much of it outside of OPEC's direct
control, the oil imported from Iraq is fairly inconsequential — amounting to
only approximately 3 percent. And our relations with the former Soviet Union
have substantially improved since 1990. Russia and other former Soviet states
present tremendous opportunities for oil development and supply. As a recent study by the National Center for
Policy Analysis explains, Iraq's oil reserves are just a drop in the bucket.
Contrary to popular belief, oil is relatively plentiful. In fact, according to
the University of Oklahoma's David Deming, the world has likely used less than
one-third of the world's conventional petroleum resources. For instance, the United States has large
deposits of oil under its public lands and offshore. The Arctic National
Wildlife Refuge (ANWR) alone likely contains between 6 billion and 16 billion
barrels of oil. Six billion barrels of oil, the minimum expected to be recovered
from ANWR, would replace all of the oil imported from Iraq for the next 50
years. If one includes unconventional petroleum resources in the mix, Mr. Deming
estimates that the world may have more than a 500-year supply of oil at year
2000 productions rates. In short, in terms of lives and dollars, we have less
costly sources of oil rather than going to war with Iraq. The United States has plenty of reasons to go
to war with Iraq, from Saddam's support for terrorism, his continuing attempts
to develop weapons of mass destruction, and to end his reign of terror and bring
him to justice both for war crimes his military committed during the Gulf war
and for his regimes' brutal violations of international human rights committed
against his own people.
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