[DX-NEWS] ARLP026 Propagation de K7RA

2013-06-28 Thread jjreisert
SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP026
ARLP026 Propagation de K7RA

ZCZC AP26
QST de W1AW
Propagation Forecast Bulletin 26  ARLP026
From Tad Cook, K7RA
Seattle, WA  June 28, 2013
To all radio amateurs

SB PROP ARL ARLP026
ARLP026 Propagation de K7RA

Conditions were good for Field Day weekend last week.  Only
unsettled geomagnetic conditions (even quiet at times) affected us,
no big flares or geomagnetic storms, and sunspot numbers also
cooperated by peaking at 135 and 137 on Friday and Saturday.
Geomagnetic instability was caused by a brisk solar wind, which was
over by June 24.

At K7RA I used the ARRL Field Day Locator map at
http://www.arrl.org/field-day-locator to contact a few club groups
earlier in the week to see if they could use another CW operator.
I've found in years past that with so many newer licensees who were
not required to learn Morse code, that CW ops can be in demand at
some sites. Not only are CW operators wanted at many Field Day
locations, but the newer licensees are fascinated to see Morse code
in action. I really don't think that some of us old-timers who worry
about some imagined demise of CW have much to worry about.

At the last minute I changed my mind and decided to drag some gear
accumulated over the past decade but never put on the air, and
operate Class 1C, mobile single operator. Everything was last
minute, including the antenna installation and power connections,
with the radio sitting between the dashboard and the windshield.

The antenna was a very heavy kilowatt-rated screwdriver type
antenna, about 20 pounds excluding any mounting hardware or a whip,
although I swore it weighed twice as much. The plan was to mount it
on a very heavy duty magnetic mount on the roof, perhaps with guying
(this is not recommended by the manufacturer), but during assembly I
discovered this would not work, as the mounting was not compatible
with the antenna. So instead, during a fit of hacker improvisation,
I leaned the heavy screwdriver assembly out the right-rear passenger
window, (resting on the seat), and rolled up the window as far as I
could to hold it in place. I cut the coax with PL-259 off the
magmount, stripped back the other end, and attached the center wire
to the base of the antenna.

The next surprise was that although I had a 7 foot whip, I lacked
the adaptor that would screw into the top of the antenna assembly.
So what to do? Just stick it in the hole, let it roll around, and
pray. I now had an antenna (of sorts) leaning out the right rear of
my old car, about 35 degrees above horizontal, at best.

To hook the DC cable from the radio to the car battery, I needed to
go through the firewall below the dashboard. Despite finding
diagrams and advice specific to my 13-year-old car model online, I
could not get the cable through.  So I grabbed one of those portable
starter batteries (fully charged), put it on the front passenger
seat, and duct-taped the massive car battery connection clips (which
are like jumper cables) to the DC cable from the radio, and another
12 VDC pair to the antenna tuning motor. In addition, to keep the
battery charged, I tied in a very flimsy looking 12 VDC lighter plug
in parallel with the whole mess, and plugged it into the dashboard
lighter socket. This connector with wire was still in the bubble
pack in my junk box after 20 years or more.

To finish it all off, I ran a couple of long counterpoise wires from
the base of the antenna, out the rear doors and along the ground,
attaching them to the coax shield broken out at the base of the
antenna. I ran a heavy wire from the ground lug on the radio to a
metal screw beneath the dashboard that seemed good for ground, at
least at DC.

The whole thing worked, at least on 80 and 20 meters. 15 meters was
marginal, and 40 meters I could not tune at all. Starting late
Saturday evening, operating both SSB and CW, I lasted until about
1730 UTC Sunday morning.  Most of the operation was from a local
Seattle cemetery, on a nearby hilltop overlooking Lake Washington,
east of the University of Washington. Very quiet, with power lines
far away at the perimeter.

Back to solar activity, from the previous week, average daily
sunspot numbers were up nearly 13 points to 109.7, and average daily
solar flux rose nearly 7 points to 122. Geomagnetic activity was
greater than the previous week, with average daily planetary A index
rising from 4.3 to 12, and average mid-latitude A index rising from
4.9 to 11.9.

Ideally we would like to see the solar flux and sunspot numbers as
high as possible, and the A index low, at least for 40 through 10
meters.  On 160 meters we would like to see sunspot numbers low as
well. I hear lots of complaints about this weird, weak solar cycle,
but the 160 meter operators have absolutely no problem with the low
activity.

Yesterday on Thursday, June 27 the solar flux dipped below 100 to
99.5, which is below the average for the previous seven days (122).
Nothing significant about 100, it is just one of those nice 

[DX-NEWS] ARLP026 Propagation de K7RA

2012-06-29 Thread jjreisert
SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP026
ARLP026 Propagation de K7RA

ZCZC AP27
QST de W1AW  
Propagation Forecast Bulletin 26  ARLP026
From Tad Cook, K7RA
Seattle, WA  June 29, 2012
To all radio amateurs 

SB PROP ARL ARLP026
ARLP026 Propagation de K7RA

Sunspot activity continued to drop until early this week.  Average
daily sunspot numbers were 26.3, down over 58 points from last
week's numbers.  Average daily solar flux declined to 92.8, down
over 33 points from last week's average.
 
The weekly sunspot number average has declined since the May 31
through June 6 period, when it was 130.4, followed by 116.1 the next
week, 84.6 the next and 26.3 this week.
 
In next week's bulletin we will have the latest 3-month moving
average of daily sunspot numbers, for April-May-June, and it looks
like it will be higher than the previous 3-month average,
March-April-May.  Also, yesterday was day number 180 for 2012, and
sunspot numbers are running higher this year.  The average sunspot
number over those 180 days is 82.4.  Previous years 2003-2011 had
yearly sunspot number averages of 109.2, 68.6, 48.9, 26.1, 12.8,
4.7, 5.1, 25.5 and 29.9, so 82.4 is quite a jump.
 
In last week's bulletin ARLP025, we reported the average daily
sunspot number as 87, but it was really 84.6.  This is because we
reported what may have been a preliminary sunspot number of 46 for
June 20, but the sunspot number for that date was 29, recorded at
http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/ftpdir/indices/DSD.txt.
 
Geomagnetic conditions over the past week were quiet.  Average
planetary A index was 5.7, down from 12.6 last week, 9 the week
before, and 13.4 before that.  The quiet A index for this week was
exactly as it was on the week of May 24-30, 5.7.
 
The latest prediction from USAF/NOAA is from June 28, and it differs
very little from the June 27 forecast used in this week's ARRL
Letter.  It shows geomagnetic activity peaking on June 30 through
July 3, probably from a coronal hole spewing solar wind.  There is
also a thirty-percent chance of M-class solar flares today.
 
Predicted planetary A index for June 29-30 is 10 and 18, followed by
15 on July 1-3, 8 on July 4, 5 on July 5-7, 8 on July 8-9, and 5 on
July 10-25, and then on July 26-31, 10, 18, 15, 15, 15 and 8.  This
is an echo of the activity this week, based on the 27.5 day rotation
of our Sun relative to Earth.
 
The predicted solar flux is 115 on June 29-30, 120 and 125 on July
1-2, 130 on July 3-5, 135 and 140 on July 6-7, 135 on July 8-9, 130
on July 10-11, 125 on July 12-13, then 120, 115, 110 and 105 on July
14-17.  Solar flux may dip below 100 around July 19 and rise above
100 after July 28.   But that is a long way out, and difficult to
predict.
 
OK1MGW of the Czech Propagation Interest Group predicts quiet to
unsettled geomagnetic conditions on June 29, quiet to active June
30, active July 1-3, quiet to unsettled July 4-7, quiet to active
July 8-9, and mostly quiet on July 10-12.
 
Scott Woelm, WX0V of Fridley, Minnesota commented on the recent lack
of sunspots, and may have discovered a correlation of some sort.  He
wrote, I have found the reason for the recent decline in sunspots!
My Dad, David Woelm, W0ELM, just got a new radio.  Good thinking!
He also wrote, For those interested, I have some images of the
recent Annular Eclipse in May, and the Venus Transit in June, on my
web site:
 
http://bluelightpix.com/images/2012-images/june-1-5-moon-and-venus
 
http://bluelightpix.com/images/2012-images/may-2012-eclipse
 
The second link has a great shot of the Annular Eclipse that was
taken in Texas by Bob Adams, KC0JJ, of Crystal, Minnesota.
 
Conditions were pretty good for 2012 Field Day last weekend, meaning
there was some solar activity, and geomagnetic conditions were nice
and quiet.  Some past Field Days didn't have it so good.
 
At http://wdc.kugi.kyoto-u.ac.jp/kp/index.html you can download
planetary K and A indices all the way back to 1932, and with a
perpetual calendar you can find the fourth full weekend in June for
any year.  1988 ARRL Field Day on June 25-26 looks particularly bad,
and so does June 23-24, 1984.  Either may have been the year I was
out with the Western Washington DX Club, and a sudden ionospheric
disturbance hit late Saturday morning, making all receivers appear
dead.  You can see by downloading the data for 1988 that the K index
hit 4 and 5 on Saturday morning, then conditions recovered into the
evening, only to have a repeat on Sunday morning, a double-whammy.
 
Bill Mader, K8TE, president of the Albuquerque DX Association sent a
report on the W5UR Field Day operation at Torrance County Park in
Edgewood, New Mexico:
 
Conditions were generally very good for FD excluding 6 and 10
meters.  Our 10 meter CW station made just one contact and 6 meters
made just 48 contacts with the majority during an opening to
California Saturday evening.  Propagation for both was disappointing
compared with previous years.
 
15 and 20 made up the bulk of the SSB and three CW stations QSOs
and were 

[DX-NEWS] ARLP026 Propagation de K7RA

2011-07-01 Thread jjreisert
SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP026
ARLP026 Propagation de K7RA

ZCZC AP26
QST de W1AW  
Propagation Forecast Bulletin 26  ARLP026
From Tad Cook, K7RA
Seattle, WA  July 1, 2011
To all radio amateurs 

SB PROP ARL ARLP026
ARLP026 Propagation de K7RA

The predicted Field Day geomagnetic storm never appeared, although
conditions were unsettled leading up to last weekend.  Planetary A
index was 7 and 7 on Saturday and Sunday, and mid-latitude A index
numbers were 5 and 6.
 
Reports so far indicate an enjoyable and productive Field Day 2011.
 
Average daily sunspot numbers for the week were down 13 points
compared to the previous week, and average daily solar flux was off
by over 7 points.
 
Predicted solar flux for the near term is quite a bit lower than
recent numbers.  The forecast shows solar flux at 87 for July 1-5,
then 90 on July 6-8, 88 on July 9, 92 and 96 on July 10-11, and 100
on July 12-15, then back to 88 on July 16.
 
Expected planetary A index is 8, 10, 12 and 8 July 1-4, 5 on July
5-7, 7 on July 8-9, and 5 again on July 10-18.
 
Geophysical Institute Prague says watch for unsettled conditions
July 1, unsettled to active July 2, unsettled July 3, quiet to
unsettled July 4-5, and quiet July 6-7.
 
Good news from WM7D and W7GTF who heard on a WWV broadcast that the
Space Weather Prediction Center decided not to drop the hourly
geo-physical report, and due to all the feedback they may actually
expand it.  See the official announcement at
http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwv/.
 
Now that June has passed, let's look at the 3-month moving average
of sunspot numbers.  Centered on June 2010 through May 2011 the
moving average of daily sunspot numbers were 20.4, 23.2, 28.9, 33,
35.6, 31, 30.1, 35.3, 55.7, 72.3, 74.4 and 65.9.  We have to look
quite far back to find moving averages of daily sunspot numbers as
high as the last few months.  Back in 2004, the 3-month moving
average of daily sunspot numbers centered on June through December
were 80.8, 78.1, 69.3, 66, 66.3, 61 and 52.2.
 
Mel Frost, KD7DCR of Whitehall, Montana (DN-35) reports that on 6
meters at 0301z on June 29 he worked NZ5E and AB5F, both in eastern
Arkansas.  AB5F faded from S-6 into the mud about 35 minutes later,
NZ5E started at S-9 +10 and faded to S-8, until they finally signed
off at 0420z.  He couldn't find any evidence on DK Sherlock of
others enjoying this path.
 
Jon Jones, N0JK of Wichita, Kansas (EM17jr) on June 25 wrote: I
worked PJ6D at 1704z today.  They came up on a QSB peak, worked AC0A
then me.  Sent the usual '599' but more like a 579.  Solid clear
signal and clean confirmed QSO.  Earlier heard them at 1600z but
very weak like on scatter.
 
They are running an amp, so I was hearing them better than they me.
Had to call several times to get a response.  PJ6D faded down
shortly after I worked them.  Had just come in the apartment after
helping the XYL load some furniture in our car.  Could have easily
missed PJ6D.  Could not go out portable today due to T-Storms.
 
Also on June 25, Bill Hohnstein, K0HA of Seward, Nebraska (EN10lx)
wrote: I worked PJ76 at 1502z and PJ6D at 1506z.  Both were strong
then.  The PJ's and others in that area were stronger with 120
degree Yagi phasing.  That's how my antenna was set when I worked
them.  By 1520z signals from that area were better with 0 degree
Yagi phasing.
 
I think that I had my earliest run of JA's today:  29 between 2137
and 2216z, with two more around 2240z.  I think that JA6LCJ in PM52
was my furthest (10,457 km).
 
Bill also added:  I did a lot of antenna checks while working the
JA's.  All that I checked were stronger with 120 degree phasing
between two of my Yagis!  Most were pretty much unworkably weak with
0 degree phasing AND with just my 6M7 being fed.  My adding the
phasing option is definitely a success!
 
Bill linked to a recording he made of JN1NDY at
http://www.k0ha.com/6m/JN1NDY2011.mp3.  He also added And, if you
want to hear how JA4DND's signal sounded, go to:
http://www.k0ha.com/6m/JA4DND.mp3 .  That's how the pileup sounded
most of the time.
 
If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers,
email the author at, k...@arrl.net.
 
For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL
Technical Information Service at
http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals.  For an explanation of
the numbers used in this bulletin, see
http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere.  An archive of
past propagation bulletins is at
http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation.  Find more good
information and tutorials on propagation at
http://mysite.ncnetwork.net/k9la/index.html.
 
Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve
overseas locations are at http://arrl.org/propagation.
 
Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins.
 
Sunspot numbers for June 23 through 29 were 47, 62, 47, 26, 30, 37,
and 45, with a mean of 42.  10.7 cm flux was 96.3, 96.2, 93.6, 90.1,
89.2, 86.9, and 87.3, 

[DX-NEWS] ARLP026 Propagation de K7RA

2010-07-02 Thread jjreisert
SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP026
ARLP026 Propagation de K7RA

ZCZC AP26
QST de W1AW  
Propagation Forecast Bulletin 26  ARLP026
From Tad Cook, K7RA
Seattle, WA  July 2, 2010
To all radio amateurs 

SB PROP ARL ARLP026
ARLP026 Propagation de K7RA

Most stations reported not-so-great conditions for ARRL Field Day
last weekend, but there were sporadic-e openings on 6 and 10 meters.
Geomagnetic conditions were a bit rough, with the Planetary A index
in double digits for both days, June 26-27.  Conditions at
mid-latitude were not too bad, but in Alaska the College A index was
20 and 22.  With atmospheric noise from seasonal thunderstorms it
was a bit rough at times, although with Field Day just about
everyone has fun.

Read comments from participants at
http://www.arrl.org/contests/soapbox and select 2010 ARRL Field Day
from the drop-down menu.

June is over, so we have some new averages for sunspot numbers, and
the numbers declined slightly.  Average daily sunspot number over
the month of June was 18, down from 20 in May.  The three-month
average centered on May was 16.2, down from 18.5 the previous month
(centered on April, with data from March through May), 22.3 the
month before, and 25.7 the month prior to that (centered on
February).

For the past week, average daily sunspot numbers were 11.7, down
from 16.1 the prior week and 26.9 before that.

The latest prediction (from Thursday afternoon) via USAF and NOAA
has solar flux at 72 for July 2-3, and 74 on July 4-10.  The same
forecast has planetary A index at 10 for July 2, 8 on July 3-4, and
5 on July 5-10.

Geophysical Institute Prague in the Czech Republic sees quiet to
unsettled conditions July 2-3, and quiet conditions July 4-8.

With sporadic-e season in full swing, we've heard a number of six
meter reports.  Jim O'Brien, W4AMP of Cedartown, Georgia (EM74)
reports that on June 19 six meters was open most of the day.  With a
2-element beam and 100 watts at midnight local time (0400z) he
worked VE7BEE in DN09 and KW7Y in CN88.  He noted that midnight is
an odd time for multiple-hop sporadic-e skip.

Martin McCormick, WB5AGZ in Stillwater, Oklahoma sent in this note
about sporadic-e on Field Day:

On Saturday June 26, I was tuning between 25 and 30 MHZ at about
12:30 CDT and heard a narrow-band FM signal on 25.99 MHZ playing
music.  It was a broadcast station's Queuing system.  These used to
be very common around 26.xx MHZ but most stations have gone to much
higher frequencies to get away from Sporadic E, F2 and illegal
CB-type activity so when one hears one of these signals these days,
it is rare.

I listened for a while and heard 2 ID's which turned out to be for
KSCS whose actual broadcast frequency is 96.3 in Fort Worth, TX.
This is very interesting because Stillwater, Oklahoma is only a bit
over 200 to 250 miles from the Dallas-Fort Worth area.

The signal was full-quieting with fades for several minutes and then
it vanished very quickly.  This should have been good for Field Day
participants on 12 and 10 meters as E Skip doesn't usually get that
short.

The bands were actually pretty boring with 6 meters dead from here
and not many strong signals between 25 and 30 MHZ.  You'd be
surprised what the letters KSCS can sound like even when heard
fairly clearly.  I made a recording of the audio and heard them
refer to Texas but it took several runs at Radio-locator.com to find
anything that made sense.  Fortunately, radio locator lists stations
by Call letters, frequency and program format.  KSCS is in Texas,
plays country music and is on 96.3 MHZ.

Some radio stations may still use these frequencies for actual
remote broadcasts from a truck or public building back to the studio
so you never know what you will find.   Martin mentioned
http://www.radio-locator.com/ which is very handy for identifying
broadcast stations with a great deal of detailed information.

Jeff Hartley, N8II of Shepherdstown, West Virginia sent this report:
The good news is the almost ever present Es to fill in gaps left by
low solar flux.  Several times on 15 meters I have heard EA and
Italy past midnight local in Europe.  Saturday June 12 was fabulous
with a good European opening on 10 meters from around 1320-1430Z; a
couple of signals were over S9 from MW0, and DL and about 25
stations were worked mostly in SW and S Europe.  Saturday June 19 at
1630Z, I was operating in the WV QSO Party.  I was able to work the
'far side' of WV during several periods on 20 meters as close as
about 200 miles away and had almost continuous openings to 8's, 9's,
and close in 4's as well as long openings to New England.

There was also a very extensive double hop 10 meter opening to the
Rockies, southwest, and west coast from 2100Z thru past 0200Z which
also extended to 6 meters.  I worked about 720 stations on 20 meter
phone and 170 on 10 phone.  I missed AK and VT for WAS, several
called in from HI on 20 including KH6G mid day mid path.

Sunday the June 20 around 1300Z, I heard N0KE and K0GU in CO and

[DX-NEWS] ARLP026 Propagation de K7RA

2009-06-26 Thread jjreisert
SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP026
ARLP026 Propagation de K7RA

ZCZC AP26
QST de W1AW  
Propagation Forecast Bulletin 26  ARLP026
From Tad Cook, K7RA
Seattle, WA  June 26, 2009
To all radio amateurs 

SB PROP ARL ARLP026
ARLP026 Propagation de K7RA

Thanks to Carl Luetzelschwab, K9LA for writing last week's
Propagation Forecast bulletin.

Two new sunspots appeared last week, numbered 1022 and 1023, and
both were Cycle 24 spots.  1022 lasted through June 23 and 1023
until June 24.  On June 24 geomagnetic indices were unsettled.

This weekend is ARRL Field Day, and conditions should be stable.
Planetary A index is predicted to be around five, which is quiet.

Chip Margelli, K7JA wrote about some surprising openings last week.
He writes, Sunspots or no, there are DX opportunities even with a
solar flux of 67. Both Friday and Saturday nights (U.S. time June
19-20), the 21 MHz and 28 MHz bands were open to Japan from my
location in southern California, and along much of the West Coast,
around 0500-0800 UTC (that's 10 PM to at least 1 AM!).  Both nights,
the 15-meter CW band was crawling with loud JA signals from stations
working the All Asian DX Contest, and there were many loud signals
on 10 meters, as well. I fear many did not think to check ten at
this hour, but it very much was open.

He continues, And Saturday night I worked 54 JA stations in a nice
run on 50 MHz, so perhaps those noctilucent clouds were being kind
to me.

Steve Brandt, N7VS of Portland, Oregon had a similar observation.
On 10 meters CW last Friday night (at 0336z Saturday) Steve worked
JK1YMM in the All Asia CW Contest with S7 reports in both
directions.  Steve also observed sporadic-E openings this week out
to about 1,000 miles, and said other stations have reported working
Japan on 10 meters this week.

In last week's bulletin, Carl mentioned the upcoming DXpedition to
Glorioso in July.  Now he has written a set of predictions for
propagation to Glorioso from various areas, and you can see it at
http://mysite.verizon.net/k9la/id11.html.  Just click on the
Glorioso in July 2009 link.

I received some interesting mail from Red Haines, WO0W of La
Crescent, Minnesota.  I did a search for past emails from him, and
came across an unread mail from December, 2007.  Just to review and
clarify, an ionosonde is a tool for measuring the critical frequency
(f0F2) for the area just above.  It sweeps an RF signal, beaming
straight up, and looks for reflections.

Some quotes from Red occupy the next few paragraphs.

Though we use the sunspot number and the solar flux index to assess
propagation expectations, there is only an indirect connection
between these indices and propagation.  Neither sunspots nor the
radiation measured by the solar flux index directly increase or
decrease the levels of ionization in the ionosphere.  All three are
determined, somewhat independently, by physical processes on or in
the Sun.

Sunspots and the solar flux are caused by solar conditions that are
often associated to a limited degree with high energy radiation that
reaches Earth and ionizes molecules in the atmosphere.  Only the
energetic radiation (UV, X-ray, and Gamma rays) from the Sun or
other sources ionize those molecules.  The solar flux radiation is
not energetic enough. The sunspots are only a visual phenomena
associated with solar events, including radiation.  It often happens
that no solar radiation associated with a sunspot reaches Earth.

In past years, we didn't have any better predictors of propagation
than the sunspot number and the solar flux index.  They remain
useful, but we must recognize their limitations.  In fact,
propagation correlates very poorly with them.  Smoothed sunspot
numbers are useful to study the solar activity cycle.  Smoothed
sunspot number doesn't predict the next day's propagation or even
the next cycle's timing or magnitude.  In fact, the smoothed SSN
cannot be calculated until 6 moths have passed.  The daily SSN is
just about meaningless to propagation.

Today, we have better indicators of propagation potential. Hams may
view near real time measures of X-ray radiation from the GOES
satellites.  See http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/today.html.

The various propagation beacons are very useful to assess current
propagation.

A source of near real time ionospheric conditions, including the
various critical frequencies, may be accessed at
http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/ftpdir/lists/iono_day/. This index links to
the worldwide system of ionosondes to report measured values on
short time intervals, typically near 15 minutes.  The shortcoming is
the relatively small number of ionosondes, which requires
interpolation to estimate the MUF for a propagation path, as well as
educated guesses regarding details of the path.

The Australian IPS Radio and Space Services offer several maps that
attempt to depict interpolated propagation conditions, based on
ionosonde measurements.  For an example and links to additional
products, see http://www.ips.gov.au/HF_Systems/4/3.;

[DX-NEWS] ARLP026 Propagation de K7RA

2008-06-20 Thread jjreisert
SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP026
ARLP026 Propagation de K7RA

ZCZC AP26
QST de W1AW  
Propagation Forecast Bulletin 26  ARLP026
From Tad Cook, K7RA
Seattle, WA  June 20, 2008
To all radio amateurs 

SB PROP ARL ARLP026
ARLP026 Propagation de K7RA

We are lucky to see at least one sunspot this week, although it is
only one.  Sunspot 999 is currently in its most geo-effective
position, near the center of the sun, as we see it.  This is another
old cycle 23 spot.  The sunspot number for the last few days has
been 11, which is the minimum non-zero sunspot number.  A value of
ten is assigned because there is just one cluster of sunspots,
although in this case it is a cluster of just one.  A value of one
is added to that for the single spot.  A week ago the sunspot number
was 13, which means one cluster, three spots, although the judgment
of the number of spots inside sunspot 999 is somewhat subjective.

Let's compare a couple of solar photos from last summer which
illustrate the subtle difference between a sunspot number of 12, and
sunspot number of 14.

On July 3, 2007, the daily sunspot number was 12.  Here is a photo
of sunspot region 961:
http://www.bcsatellite.net/bao/NOAA10961-3jul-1.jpg

Compare that to August 25, 2007, when the sunspot number was 14, in
this image of sunspot region 969:
http://www.bcsatellite.net/bao/NOAA10969-25-CaK.jpg

The August photo looks like 969 might have three dark areas, but a
daily sunspot number of 14 means there were four spots in one
region.

The July photo appears to show two dark areas, which is consistent
with a daily sunspot number of 12.

Next week is ARRL Field Day.  On June 28-29 there are no predicted
geomagnetic upsets.  The predicted planetary A index for June 27-29
is 8, 5 and 5.  Maybe we'll get lucky and see a sunspot or two.
There is a very good chance that conditions could be much as they
were last year, with fairly low geomagnetic activity (although the
predicted activity for this year is lower) and no sunspots.

A Portuguese group, Associacao de Radioamadores da Vila de Moscavide
sent a link (http://www.arvm.org/index_fd2008.html) to their recent
Field Day photos.  In Europe Field Day is held earlier than the ARRL
Field Day.  Note that on the page at the bottom there are links to
past Field Day images (see page bottom) and links at the top of the
page go to photos taken by a number of different hams.

Mike Williams, W4DL of Pompano Beach, Florida (EL96) mentioned that
last weekend's ARRL June VHF QSO Party produced great results for
him.  He said the spectrum scope on his rig made 6 meters look like
20 meters.  He wrote, ''It was incredible; I worked numerous
stations from here in EL96 on CW and also SSB, and AM.  I checked 2
meters and snagged K8GP there and 10 minutes later on 6.  The 6
meter band was open early in the morning on Saturday and was still
going strong at Z that evening.  Love the QRM on 6 meter CW!''

Ken Sturgill of Marion, Virginia sent in a tip about 6 meter
activity on June 13.  Go to http://www.vhfdx.net/spots/index.php and
set variable 1 to 50 MHz, variable 3 to Reported from 13 June to 14
June 2008 and Show Only QSO above 5000 km, variable 4 to 1000, then
hit Submit Query.  This shows a slew of six meter contacts over long
distances, mostly via multi-hop e-layer propagation.  Of course you
can vary the parameters however you want, and if you lower the Show
Only variable you will see more e-skip that is not multihop.  Looks
like a dramatic six meter opening that day.

Jon Jones, N0JK sent in some six meter spots from last weekend, and
also some info on six meter sporadic-e propagation.

Go to http://www.uksmg.org/e107_plugins/wrap/wrap.php?5 and under
Six News Categories, select 6M Propagation Theories.  Select the
fourth listing, ''a primer on sporadic-E''.  See
http://www.uksmg.org/content/rattling.htm for an older article on
the subject.

Steve Lybarger, NU7T of Sparks, Nevada sent in this link to an
interesting article about dipole patterns in solar coronagraphs at
solar activity minimum:
http://sohowww.nascom.nasa.gov/pickoftheweek/old/05oct2007/

If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers,
email the author at, [EMAIL PROTECTED]

For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL
Technical Information Service at
http://www.arrl.org/tis/info/propagation.html.  For a detailed
explanation of the numbers used in this bulletin, see
http://www.arrl.org/tis/info/k9la-prop.html.  An archive of past
propagation bulletins is at http://www.arrl.org/w1aw/prop/.  Monthly
propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve overseas
locations are at http://www.arrl.org/qst/propcharts/.  Instructions
for starting or ending email distribution of this bulletin are at
http://www.arrl.org/w1aw.html#email.

Sunspot numbers for June 12 through 18 were 13, 13, 0, 0, 11, 11,
and 11 with a mean of 8.4.  10.7 cm flux was 67.1, 66.5, 67.1, 66.5,
65.3, 65.9, and 65.4 with a mean of 66.3.  Estimated planetary A
indices were 

[DX-NEWS] ARLP026 Propagation de K7RA

2006-06-30 Thread W1AW
SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP026
ARLP026 Propagation de K7RA

ZCZC AP26
QST de W1AW  
Propagation Forecast Bulletin 26  ARLP026
From Tad Cook, K7RA
Seattle, WA  June 30, 2006
To all radio amateurs 

SB PROP ARL ARLP026
ARLP026 Propagation de K7RA

It was a fun Field Day weekend all over last week, judging from the
Soapbox comments and photos on the ARRL web site at
http://www.arrl.org/contests/soapbox/.  There are many great stories
on the site, but I enjoyed reading the N4SL report on the W7MRG
operation over 500 miles down the road to Montana from home in
Washington State.  Go to page 10 (click on 10 at the bottom of the
page on the above link) to find it.  Even with zero sunspots, the
homebrew wire antenna arrays and Montana hilltop sounded fabulous.
If you check the N4SL listing on www.qrz.com, you'll see his wire
antennas at home sound quite similar to his Field Day setup.

Apparently there was some 6, 10 and 15 meter fun, although your
author didn't hear it here.  We put in a short casual mobile
operation on 20 and 40 meters, both CW and SSB, and were impressed
with how well the 7 foot monoband whip on the car worked on 40
meters.  Changing bands meant unscrewing an antenna from the trunk
mount and substituting another.

No sunspots last weekend, but a big new spot (897) rotated into view
this week.  Followed by spot 898, it looks like a moderately rising
solar flux and sunspot number will be with us through July 6.  A
solar wind stream caused elevated geomagnetic numbers on June 28 and
29, and this may happen again around July 3-5.  Geophysical
Institute Prague predicts quiet conditions over June 30 to July 3,
quiet to unsettled on July 4, unsettled to active on July 5, and
unsettled on July 6.

Last week's bulletin mentioned Carl Luetzelschwab, K9LA and his
article ''When Will the Bands Improve?'' in the current July 2006 QST.
Carl would like to correct his definition of the length of a sunspot
cycle.  The sentence in question should read ''The average length of
a sunspot cycle, from solar minimum with a minimum number of
sunspots (low electron density) to solar maximum with a maximum
number of sunspots (high electron density) and then back down to the
next solar minimum, is approximately eleven years.''

Roger Lapthorn, G3XBM wrote: ''I echo the comments last week about 6m
being a bundle of fun. I only have 5-10W QRP to a small vertical on
the side of the house but this has allowed me to work all across
Europe as far as Ukraine on SSB with 59 reports being the norm. Last
summer I managed a few north Africans but not yet this summer''.

''Not within my reach has been the amazing DX worked from Europe by
the 'big guns' running high power to large beams: Central America,
North America and, most amazing of all, a number of openings to JA
and even one to KL7. JAs seem to have been worked on several
mornings of late around our late breakfast time. This is over the
pole and a very long way for simply sporadic-E. I wonder what mode
this really is?''

Roger has a very nice web page at
http://homepage.ntlworld.com/lapthorn/index.htm.  Don't miss the
interesting links he has under Homebrew rigs for the remarkable
little QRP radios he constructed.

If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers,
email the author at, [EMAIL PROTECTED]

For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL
Technical Information Service at
http://www.arrl.org/tis/info/propagation.html. For a detailed
explanation of the numbers used in this bulletin, see
http://www.arrl.org/tis/info/k9la-prop.html. An archive of past
propagation bulletins is at http://www.arrl.org/w1aw/prop/ .

Sunspot numbers for June 22 through 28 were 0, 0, 0, 13, 14, 33 and
38 with a mean of 14. 10.7 cm flux was 72.1, 71.8, 73.6, 74, 76.4,
78.5, and 83.5, with a mean of 75.7. Estimated planetary A indices
were 6, 2, 4, 5, 3, 6 and 18 with a mean of 6.3. Estimated
mid-latitude A indices were 6, 1, 2, 3, 1, 7 and 12, with a mean of
4.6.

/EX

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[DX-NEWS] ARLP026 Propagation de K7RA

2004-06-25 Thread W1AW
SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP026
ARLP026 Propagation de K7RA

ZCZC AP26
QST de W1AW  
Propagation Forecast Bulletin 26  ARLP026
From Tad Cook, K7RA
Seattle, WA  June 25, 2004
To all radio amateurs 

SB PROP ARL ARLP026
ARLP026 Propagation de K7RA

This is Field Day weekend! Conditions don't look bad, although there
is the chance of geomagnetic conditions becoming unsettled.  This
week the sunspot numbers have improved, while geomagnetic conditions
were quiet, which is a great combination. Average daily sunspot
numbers rose over 50 points from last week to 116. Average daily
solar flux was up almost 18 points to 113.7. Sunspot numbers were
the highest on June 20 and 21, Sunday and Monday, and both the
planetary and mid-latitude A indices were very low, in the lower
single digits.

Look at http://www.sec.noaa.gov/ftpdir/indices/DGD.txt and you can
see the K index at 1 and 0 at all locations for several days.

Sunspot groups 634 and 635 provided most of the activity, and today
they are moving out of view. As a result, predicted sunspot and
solar flux numbers are a bit lower, with the solar flux forecast for
Friday through Monday, June 25-28 at 100, 95, 95 and 90. The
predicted planetary A index for the same four days is currently at
12, 12, 15 and 15. This is due to weak high-speed solar wind from a
recurrent coronal hole coming into view.

K7RA will operate some this weekend, under Class C, which is for
stations in vehicles capable of operating while in motion, and
normally operated in this manner. I'll probably be on 15 and 20
meters, both phone and CW, and 10 meters if it shows any life, and
the operating style will be casual. One of the fun things about the
Field Day operating activity is that the paperwork is very easy.
When submitting a contest entry, you only turn in a list of stations
worked, sorted alphanumerically and divided by band and mode, along
with a summary sheet.

Unlike the ARRL Sweepstakes or DX contests, you will never lose
points for incorrectly copying the exchange from the other station
or the time of the contact because you don't even report it. Only
the call sign is recorded in the appropriate band/mode list. There
are no multipliers for numbers of states or sections worked or for
DX. I'll probably just sort my call sign lists on a laptop with a
simple text editor or word processor while operating, then e-mail in
the results. See http://www.arrl.org/contests/announcements/fd/ for
rules.

For this year's Field Day, 20 meters will be your best band, and
possibly 15 as well. 10 meters may be good for some sporadic E skip.
40 and 80 meters should be good after dark. Run some numbers using a
sunspot count of 100 or 105 and a K index of 2 or 3 on W6ELprop to
get some ideas of where openings might point to at different times.
You can download this free at http://www.qsl.net/w6elprop/.

Sunspot numbers for June 17 through 23 were 106, 118, 90, 142, 139,
113 and 104 with a mean of 116. 10.7 cm flux was 111.3, 107.8,
112.7, 119.1, 115.8, 116.7 and 112.5, with a mean of 113.7.
Estimated planetary A indices were 7, 8, 5, 3, 4, 4 and 5, with a
mean of 5.1. Estimated mid-latitude A indices were 7, 10, 4, 3, 3, 1
and 2, with a mean of 4.3.

/EX

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