[DX-NEWS] ARLP028 Propagation de K7RA
SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP028 ARLP028 Propagation de K7RA ZCZC AP28 QST de W1AW Propagation Forecast Bulletin 28 ARLP028 From Tad Cook, K7RA Seattle, WA July 12, 2013 To all radio amateurs SB PROP ARL ARLP028 ARLP028 Propagation de K7RA Average daily sunspot numbers over the past week rose over 23 points to 109.4, compared to the previous reporting week. Average daily solar flux was up nearly 21 points to 127.9. Two days, July 6 and July 10, had the most geomagnetic activity, with a planetary A index of 25 on July 10. Planetary A index on July 6 was 21. The forecast issued on July 7 had a predicted solar flux of 145 on July 11 and 12, and 150 on July 13 to 15, but alas, this has been scaled back. The latest forecast calls for solar flux at 110 on July 12 to 14, then 105, 110, 115 and 120 on July 15 to 18, 125 on July 19 and 20, then 120, 110 and 105 on July 21 to 23, 100 on July 24 and 25, 105 on July 26, 110 on July 27 and 28, then 120, 125 and 130 on July 29 to 31. Predicted planetary A index is 8, 15, 25, 12, 8 and 10 on July 12 to 17, then 15 on July 18 to 21, 8 on July 22, 5 on July 23 to August 3, and 10 on August 4 and 5. OK1HH of the Czech Propagation Interest Group has his own geomagnetic forecast, and he foresees a mostly quiet geomagnetic field on July 12, active to disturbed on July 13, quiet to active July 14, quiet July 15, mostly quiet July 16, quiet to unsettled July 17, quiet to active July 18, quiet to unsettled July 19, active to disturbed July 20, quiet to active July 21, quiet to unsettled July 22, quiet July 23 and 24, quiet to unsettled July 25, quiet to active July 26, quiet to unsettled July 27 and 28, quiet July 29 to 31, mostly quiet August 1, quiet to active August 2, active to disturbed August 3, quiet August 4 and 5, and active to disturbed again on August 6 and 7. Carl Luetzelschwab, K9LA is now hosting the installation file for the W6ELprop Propagation Prediction Program, which is free, and runs on computers running the Windows operating system. The file disappeared from the W6EL web page, and now you can find it by going to http://k9la.us/ and clicking on Tutorials on the left side. The file is W6ELPropInst270.exe. Ted Leaf, K6HI sent a link to an article about a large sunspot group, http://earthsky.org/space/large-sunspot-group-comes-into-view. The article says activity in the Sun's southern hemisphere is finally picking up. It goes on to claim that this could be an indication of a double sunspot peak, with a second peak emerging as late as early 2014. I would love to see our Sun peppered with energetic spots. Unfortunately in this cycle, when they do emerge they tend to be weak, evidence of the overall listless nature of this cycle. K9LA talks about a second peak in his article from May 2013 at http://k9la.us/Will_Cycle_24_Have_a_Second_Peak.pdf . Several articles this week of interest to sun watchers: http://phys.org/news/2013-07-space-weather-table-effective-video.html http://www.skyandtelescope.com/observing/highlights/Now-Playing-A-Huge-Sunspot-Group-214525531.html http://www.aninews.in/newsdetail14/story119902/when-and-where-sunspots-will-emerge-can-be-predicted-1-day-in-advance.html http://phys.org/news/2013-07-scientists-solar-precursors-sunspots-emerge.html The ON4AA site, not mentioned here in some time: http://www.stroobandt.com/propagation/software.html From N0NBH: http://www.hamqsl.com/solar3.html A real-time 160 meter propagation tool: http://solar.spacew.com/www/160pred.html Sorry, no reports from readers this week. For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL Technical Information Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals. For an explanation of the numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere. An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation. More good information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/. Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve overseas locations are at http://arrl.org/propagation. Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins. Sunspot numbers for July 4 through 10 were 109, 113, 115, 112, 143, 98, and 76, with a mean of 109.4. 10.7 cm flux was 137.7, 140.8, 134.2, 125.6, 119.3, 119.9, and 117.9, with a mean of 127.9. Estimated planetary A indices were 5, 9, 21, 8, 6, 9, and 25, with a mean of 11.9. Estimated mid-latitude A indices were 4, 10, 20, 7, 7, 8, and 20, with a mean of 10.9. /EX --- To unsubscribe or subscribe to this list. Please send a message to imail...@njdxa.org In the message body put either unsubscribe dx-news or subscribe dx-news This is the DX-NEWS reflector sponsored by the NJDXA http://njdxa.org ---
[DX-NEWS] ARLP028 Propagation de K7RA
SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP028 ARLP028 Propagation de K7RA ZCZC AP29 QST de W1AW Propagation Forecast Bulletin 28 ARLP028 From Tad Cook, K7RA Seattle, WA July 13, 2012 To all radio amateurs SB PROP ARL ARLP028 ARLP028 Propagation de K7RA Solar activity rose moderately this week. Average daily sunspot numbers were up nearly 3 points to 120.9, and average daily solar flux rose over 28 points to 166.8. There was quite a bit of geomagnetic activity, the most happening on July 9, when the mid-latitude A index reached 29, planetary A index was 30, and Alaska's college A index was 60. That day I stopped in to visit K7SS on my way back from a trip to Oregon, and a check of the bands showed HF conditions were quite difficult. Sunspot group 1520 was directly facing Earth on July 12 at 1653 UTC when it spewed out an X.14 class solar flare. We've seen flares off to one side or another that had limited effect, but this one was aimed straight at us. There was an immediate SID (Sudden Ionospheric Disturbance) event, and the resulting CME should reach Earth some time around 1020 UTC Saturday, July 14. This could be bad news for operators in the IARU HF World Championship and other operating events this weekend. The accuracy of the 1020 UTC impact estimate is plus or minus 7 hours. The 24-hour contest begins at 1200 UTC Saturday. See http://www.arrl.org/iaru-hf-championship/ for details. The latest prediction shows planetary A index at 8, 18 and 15 on July 13-15, then 5 on July 16-26, then 20 on July 27-29, 10 on July 30-31, 15 on August 1-2, 10 on August 3-4, 8 on August 5, and 5 on August 6-22. Predicted solar flux is 165 on July 13-15, then 160, 145, 130, and 120, on July 16-19, 105 on July 20-21, then 115, 120, 130, 140, 145 and 150 on July 22-27, and 165 on July 28 through August 2, 160 on August 3-4, then 165, 155, and 150 on August 5-7, and 145 on August 8-10. If you check http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/ftpmenu/forecasts/45DF.html and compare the July 11 and July 12 predictions, you can see a big difference between the forecast in this bulletin (July 12) and the one presented in this week's ARRL Letter, based on the July 11 projection. Over the past week, four new sunspot groups appeared. On July 7, group 1520 was new and on July 8, older group 1517 (visible since July 1) disappeared. On July 9 group 1513 (visible since June 26) was gone and 1521 was new. On July 10, group 1515 (visible since June 27) disappeared, and on July 11 group 1518 (around since July 4) was gone. On June 12, two new groups, 1522 and 1523 appeared. Petr Kolman, OK1MGW, again provides us with the Czech Propagation Interest Group geomagnetic activity forecast. Expect unsettled to active conditions on July 13-15, mostly quiet July 16-18, quiet to unsettled July 19-21. You can follow progress of any geomagnetic disturbance this weekend by checking http://spaceweather.com/ and http://www.spaceweatherlive.com/en. Note the last site is available in Dutch, French and German by selecting your language of choice in the drop-down on upper right. We received even more email about the old BC-458 SSB conversion, including some corrections to the correction in the last bulletin. We won't cover the subject any longer in this bulletin, but the original March 1956 QST article by W2EWL is a treat to look at. If you are an ARRL member, you can find it in the QST archive by logging into your account at http://www.arrl.org/ and then going to http://www.arrl.org/arrl-periodicals-archive-search. Just enter W2EWL in the Author Call field, and March 1956 for the month and year. There you can download a 1.6 MB pdf of the article. Walt Knodle, W7VS of Bend, Oregon sent along an article titled MRI of the Sun's Interior Motions Challenges Existing Explanations for Sunspots. Read it at http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2012/07/120709092457.htm. You can read articles about the most recent solar flare at http://www.livescience.com/21573-major-solar-flare-erupts-giant-sunspot.html and http://www.space.com/16557-giant-sunspot-ar1520-solar-flares.html. Jon Jones, N0JK sent a message about the big recent 6 meter opening and notes it was June 29, not June 30. He says, In Kansas, we were at the edge of it. N0LL worked MM0AMW at 1219 UTC followed by LA7HJA at 1545 UTC. I logged JW7QIA at 1642 UTC. I was running 100 w and a 2 element Yagi portable for the contact with Peter. He was using a stack of two 5 el Yagis. I heard him for about 5 minutes. The VE4SPT/b EO26 was 599 at the same time. If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers, email the author at, k...@arrl.net. For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL Technical Information Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals. For an explanation of the numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere. An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation.
[DX-NEWS] ARLP028 Propagation de K7RA
SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP028 ARLP028 Propagation de K7RA ZCZC AP28 QST de W1AW Propagation Forecast Bulletin 28 ARLP028 From Tad Cook, K7RA Seattle, WA July 15, 2011 To all radio amateurs SB PROP ARL ARLP028 ARLP028 Propagation de K7RA Average daily sunspot numbers this week were up 57 percent over the previous seven days, rising from 41.6 to 65.6. Average daily solar flux rose just 3 points to 89.1. There seem to be plenty of sunspots of late, but none have been large, and so the sunspot number and solar flux are not as high as in some previous months. A new sunspot appeared on July 7, then three the next day on July 8, then a new one each day on July 9, 10 and 11, and two more on July 13 and another two on July 14. A coronal mass ejection on July 9 gave us some geomagnetic activity a couple of days later. The current forecast shows the planetary A index on July 15-24 at 5, 5, 5, 8, 8, 12, 12, 8, 8 and 5. Solar flux is predicted at 94 on July 15-17, 92 on July 18-19, 90 on July 20-21, then 94, 90, 89, 87, 87, 89 and 88 on July 22-28. Geophysical Institute Prague says look for quiet to unsettled geomagnetic conditions on July 15, quiet July 16-17, unsettled July 18, unsettled to active July 19, unsettled July 20 and quiet to unsettled July 21. Jeff Hartley, N8II of Shepherdstown, West Virginia sent in a report on recent 6 meter activity. He wrote, The recent somewhat lower solar flux is noticeable on the bands, late night openings to EU on 15 are curtailed and 17 meters is slow to open to anywhere in our morning. I got up late today, July 8 to find a very good 6 meter opening to Europe. The first station heard was DK1DAX who rapidly faded down followed by EA7KW (who is always there when the band is open), then G8BCG who I managed to work. Then the Mediterranean area really started to come thru well around 1435z. IS0GQX, F5PAU, CT1DVV, CT1EWX, EA7RM, another F5, and ZB2FK (Gibraltar) was worked for a new country. On Sunday July 3 I finally logged PJ6D around 2300z after hearing them on FD for quite a stretch, but my weak signal could not be heard there. Around June 29, SM5EDX was the only signal heard on 6 meters at 2115z besides a few direct signals on the East Coast calling him. There have been quite a few 6 meter European openings into W1, W2, southern W4 and the Midwest that did not extend into my area. Thanks, Jeff! Robert Elek, W3HKK of Johnstown, Ohio writes Thursday July 7 around 2300z saw a nice 6 meter opening to Portugal with three strong (57 to 59) signals arriving in central Ohio from CT1's HZE/HZJ/FFU. Signals were in and out for several hours centered on 2300z. Nice going guys! Have a glass of Porto on me! Then on Friday morning, July 8, it hit the fan in central Ohio! I worked CT1FFU and HZE again, stronger than the night before, and then witnessed nearly all of western Europe coming thru, one by one, building up out of the noise to around 55/559 and sometimes as in the case of IS0GQX up to 59. It seemed GQX was in there from around 1300z until the band quieted down around 1800z. Kudos for an amazing signal! Meanwhile, I had fun working F8DBF, ON5HJS, 9H1BT, EA7KW, all new countries for me, and a couple of Canadian Maritimers. But alas, the hoped for evening opening didn't materialize in central Ohio, although I saw the Euro's were still on but working 6's and 7's and 5's. Imagine all this DX with 100 watts to a 5 element Yagi towering TEN FEET above the rear patio, 'equipped' with an Armstrong rotator! Six is indeed The Magic Band. This was the most widespread DX opening I have seen in my two years on the band. I heard stations from England, Italy, and Russia as well. Very cool opening! Thanks, Robert. As the kids say, Awesome! We get a lot of email about solar activity, including some from non-hams curious about something they read in the news. Some people mention that in the same week they see articles claiming we're in for some sort of dangerous solar maximum, but then they read about a dearth of sunspots. I ran across this at a NASA site, which reminds me of some of the questions I get: http://astrobiology.nasa.gov/ask-an-astrobiologist/question/?id=16490. Another interesting piece is this one about a big solar event 11 years ago: http://www.space.com/12278-bastille-day-solar-storm-anatomy.html. Pat Moore, AL7L of Juneau, Alaska pointed out that perhaps the use of the word millennia in the last bulletin was unintended, as millennia is plural, while millennium is singular. Dick Bingham, W7WKR, who used to live in my Seattle neighborhood now lives way off the grid at Stehekin, Washington, reachable only by boat or a very rugged mountain trail. Check out his interesting address in the lookup feature at http://www.arrl.org/ or at QRZ.com. Dick sent an article and video from NASA about a dark solar explosion that continues to baffle and fascinate over a month after the event. See and read about it at http://science.nasa.gov/science-
[DX-NEWS] ARLP028 Propagation de K7RA
SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP028 ARLP028 Propagation de K7RA ZCZC AP28 QST de W1AW Propagation Forecast Bulletin 28 ARLP028 From Tad Cook, K7RA Seattle, WA July 10, 2009 To all radio amateurs SB PROP ARL ARLP028 ARLP028 Propagation de K7RA Finally, some sunspot activity to report, and not one of those phantom spots, appearing one day and vanishing the next. Sunspot group 1024 first emerged a week ago, on July 3, 2009, with a daily sunspot number of 17, and the magnetic signature of a new cycle 24 spot. Over the next few days it grew more rapidly and became larger than any sunspot group in the past two years. Today, July 10, it should pass over the sun's western limb, and disappear. Our numbers at the bottom of the bulletin go through Wednesday, July 8, and on Thursday the sunspot number was 15. Look at the table at http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/ftpdir/indices/DSD.txt and notice the sunspot area, in millionths of a solar hemisphere. You can see the size increased rapidly, backed off a bit on July 6, then has increased continually since then, at least through July 9. You can see a detailed daily progression of the sunspot area at http://www.solarmonitor.org/slideshow.php?date=20090703. If you see no image, just refresh your browser, or hit the F5 key. You should see images at different times on July 3, from different observatories, gradually stepping through. The images look distinctive based on what part of the electromagnetic spectrum a particular observatory is imaging. Now change the end of the URL in the web address window from date=20090703 to date=20090704, and hit enter. You should see images from July 4. Keep stepping through subsequent dates, and you will see the active region progress toward the sun's western limb, which is to the right. Last week's bulletin had a report from Brian Smith, W9IND, who said the W9VW six-meter beacon in Indianapolis got a listener report from France. This week at 2227z on July 6, it was copied S3 by CU2JT in the Azores (HM77). The beacon runs 8 watts. We've had some interesting comments in past bulletins from Dave Greer, N4KZ of Franklin, Kentucky, over half about six meters. Check bulletins 21 and 23 in 2005, 1 and 24 in 2006, and 32 and 33 in 2008. You'll find these at http://www.arrl.org/w1aw/prop/, then click on ''Show older bulletins''. Dave shares more interesting comments with us in this bulletin. ''All 6-meter operators know just how fickle the band can be -- particularly during a multi-hop E-skip opening. A station just a few miles from another might not hear the rare DX being worked by the other. But I had the opposite occur one recent evening when I worked California and Ireland within 5 minutes of one another. I don't recall ever experiencing multi-hop E-skip in two opposite directions before''. ''It began at 2350 UTC on June 26 when I heard and called KR6Z in DM14 who had a strong signal here in north-central Kentucky, EM78. We chatted for 10 minutes and signed. My friend, Tim, N4GN, over in Louisville, 40 miles west of my Frankfort QTH, called and said to turn my beam toward Europe because he had just worked Ireland''. ''I took his advice and put EI7IX, grid IO53, in my log at 0003 UTC with a SSB contact. He was 57 here. Then I tuned down the band and got on CW where I heard EI2IP in IO61 calling CQ. He came back and I had my second Irish station in the log and thus completed working from the West Coast of North America to Western Europe all in a 5-minute span. Amazing. I don't think I had ever experienced anything like that in 25 years of 6-meter operating''. ''Others might disagree with me but it seems that the multi-hop E-skip has been quite consistent this year -- day after day after day. Of course, I'm at work from 8 a.m. to 5 p.m. and miss out on a lot of good stuff but have still managed to put three new entities in the log this summer -- Sardinia, St. Kitts and Grenada. Of course, some real good -- and potentially new ones -- got away, including D44TD, heard at my QTH for 2 minutes before fading out, OD5KU, who I could just barely hear about the noise at mid-morning on June 27 and an EA6 who never heard me frantically answering his CW CQ. But I have put a dozen EA8 stations in the log this summer, plus Italy, France and Spain, not to mention numerous Caribbean QSOs and a strong YV station. On a recent evening, K6MIO/KH6 was copied in Louisville by N4GN but his signal never made it the extra 40 miles east to Frankfort''. ''I have begun reading a bit more about these so-called noctilucent clouds and the role they might play in sporadic-E. Fascinating stuff. First observed after the huge Krakatoa volcanic eruption in 1883 in present-day Indonesia, it was originally thought they were caused by volcanic debris spewed into the upper atmosphere. Now, the more common theory is the debris that helps the clouds form is dust from meteor showers. But I can't help but wonder, and speculate, if the Sarychev Peak volcanic
[DX-NEWS] ARLP028 Propagation de K7RA
SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP028 ARLP028 Propagation de K7RA ZCZC AP28 QST de W1AW Propagation Forecast Bulletin 28 ARLP028 From Tad Cook, K7RA Seattle, WA July 3, 2008 To all radio amateurs SB PROP ARL ARLP028 ARLP028 Propagation de K7RA This week's bulletin is presented a day earlier than usual, due to the Independence Day holiday on Friday. The weeks seem to drag on with no sunspots in sight. An image from helioseismic holography on Tuesday shows a spot on our Sun's far side. We hope it emerges in a week or ten days on our side, and hasn't died out by then. Spots emerge from time to time, but they are all old Cycle 23 spots, and they seem to fade quickly, without much activity. A reflection of recent activity is the 3-month moving average we present every month. With June over, we now know the average sunspot number for the three months centered on May, and it is very low. Instead of rising, the sunspot average has been stalled since late last year around 8.1 to 8.9, and has now dropped to five. Here is the table of 3-month averages we present every month, including the last three months, centered on May: Jun 06 28.9 Jul 06 23.3 Aug 06 23.5 Sep 06 21.2 Oct 06 24.1 Nov 06 23.1 Dec 06 27.3 Jan 07 22.7 Feb 07 18.5 Mar 07 11.2 Apr 07 12.2 May 07 15.8 Jun 07 18.7 Jul 07 15.4 Aug 07 10.2 Sep 07 5.4 Oct 07 3 Nov 07 6.9 Dec 07 8.1 Jan 08 8.5 Feb 08 8.4 Mar 08 8.4 Apr 08 8.9 May 08 5 I have no idea when this will turn around. Cycle 23 seems to be unusually long. While there haven't been many sunspots, this has been an eventful sporadic-E season. Mark Lunday, WD4ELG of Hillsborough, North Carolina said he listened to a great 10 meter sporadic-E opening last Friday evening, June 27 between Europe and the upper Midwest and east coast. 4O1A in Montenegro was one of them, and unfortunately Mark wasn't able to communicate with any of the Europeans. He emailed a nice graphic showing a globe with the stations heard and their paths, including the grey line terminator. Jim Abercrombie, N4JA of Enoree, South Carolina worked 4O1A also on Friday on 28.495 MHz at 2100z. Jim has a free downloadable book on antennas, which you can download at, http://www.hamuniverse.com/n4jaantennabook.html. Jim says he worked 4O1A again on 10 meters at 1457z the next morning. 4O1A was mostly working Europeans, but a few North American stations as well. Julio Medina, NP3CW of San Juan, Puerto Rico sent in an amazing long list of stations he worked in the month of June, all on 6 meters, nearly every day. The calls are from North and South America, and all over Europe. John Butrovich, W5UWB of Orange Grove, Texas wrote about experiences during the recent VHF contest. John writes, 15 June 2008 during the contest, 2 meters was open for me (EL17ax) for about 20 minutes (1445-1510 utc) to the NE into EN field. 12 stations worked on 2 meters. He continues, Interesting note: at 1446 utc I shifted N0VZJ to 222.1 and we completed at 1212 mi/1951 KM on SSB. Two others called but the MUF dropped. John goes on to say, I guess you saw the NA-EU prop on 6 meters today? Perhaps one of the best ever for the northern tier gents. I am too far south and had no Es until 2342 utc (late for EUs!) and worked MM0AMW SSB on 50.113 MHz. You can see some nice photos of John's antennas at, http://www.k5rmg.org/w5uwb.html. For some reason, no Field Day reports, so I'll give one. I showed up Saturday night with no particular plans at the K7R site in a wooded park in Redmond, Washington. Five stations were widely spaced around an open grassy field surrounded by tall Douglas fir trees, perfect for slinging wire antennas. Earlier in the day an archer slung lines over high branches for the antenna raising. I stopped at the first station I encountered, right where the trail opened from the woods. This was a CW position, and I think with this particular group CW ops were in short supply. After a while I began operating 20 meter CW, but at some point we had a question about where the beam antenna was actually pointed. Using a mapping program on my laptop hooked to a GPS receiver, I set the map to leave a trace showing the path I followed, and I walked from the director side of the beam in the direction the boom was pointed. With the map zoomed in all the way, I could see the path was heading slightly south of east. Later when 20 meters died out, I switched to an 80 meter dipole, and operated until 2:00 AM Sunday morning. This was a very smooth operation, as the modern top of the line transceiver automatically switched to the other antenna when I changed bands. It also had built in CW memories, which was very useful, as my call is K7RA, very close to the special event call being used, K7R. I think on CW the 1x1 call causes enough repeat requests that any advantage of sending one less character is erased. Propagation over North America was fine, and I had a ball. I never did make it to any of the other four stations. In last week's
[DX-NEWS] ARLP028 Propagation de K7RA
SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP028 ARLP028 Propagation de K7RA ZCZC AP28 QST de W1AW Propagation Forecast Bulletin 28 ARLP028 From Tad Cook, K7RA Seattle, WA July 6, 2007 To all radio amateurs SB PROP ARL ARLP028 ARLP028 Propagation de K7RA The average daily sunspot number for this week rose nearly 18 points from the previous seven days. On July 4 the A index was moderately elevated due to a solar wind stream. Expect to see a similar increase around July 11, and a much greater increase in geomagnetic activity from July 16-19. Geophysical Institute Prague predicts quiet conditions for July 6-9, quiet to unsettled July 10, and unsettled conditions for July 11. Monthly averages of daily sunspot numbers for April 2006 through June 2007 were 55.2, 39.6, 24.4, 22.6, 22.8, 25.2, 14.7, 31.5, 22.2, 28.2, 17.3, 9.8, 6.9, 19.8 and 20.7. Monthly averages of daily solar flux for the same period were 88.9, 80.9, 76.5, 75.8, 79, 77.8, 74.3, 86.3, 84.4, 83.5, 77.7, 72.2, 72.4, 74.4 and 73.7. Looking at 3-month smoothed sunspot numbers, knowing the June numbers we can add them to April and May to show the three-month average centered on May. Here are the 3-month smoothed sunspot numbers based on data from the past 22 months: Oct 05 28 Nov 05 36 Dec 05 40.6 Jan 06 32.4 Feb 06 18.1 Mar 06 27.7 Apr 06 38.5 May 06 39.7 Jun 06 28.9 Jul 06 23.3 Aug 06 23.5 Sep 06 21.2 Oct 06 24.1 Nov 06 23.1 Dec 06 27.3 Jan 07 22.7 Feb 07 18.5 Mar 07 11.2 Apr 07 12.2 May 07 15.8 Why do we say 22 months when only 20 months are shown? This is because these numbers are based on data from September 2005 through June 2007. The months shown are the center of each three month average of daily sunspot numbers. Notice the averages centered on December 2006 through May 2007. If we narrowly focus on just these data, it sure looks like the cycle reached a minimum centered on March 2007, rising since then. Note also from the monthly averages above that the June average at 20.7 is nearly five points higher than the 3-month average centered on May. Look on page 9 in the July 3 Weekly Preliminary Report and Forecast at http://www.sec.noaa.gov/weekly/index.html and note the cycle minimum is shown as March 2007, the same month that our three-month average shows. This table is of actual and predicted smoothed sunspot numbers, each based on a year of data. December 2006 is based entirely on known data, January 2007 is based on known data plus one month of predicted data (July), February is based on two months of predicted data (July and August) and the rest known data, and so on. More 6 meter and Field Day reports came in this week. Several Field Day stations had a lot of luck on 15 meters, and they tended to be in the Midwest and the South. Dustin Cox, KE5NKG of New Mexico said that on Field Day he had a great overnight run on 15 meters. There was a great deal of 6-meter activity in the final week of June. On June 25 John Butrovich, W6UWB of Orange Grove, Texas (EL17ax) worked 20 European stations, mostly UK using the weak-signal JT6M mode on 50.257 MHz. For more info on JT6M, see http://jt6m.org and http://www.qsl.net/wa5ufh/Misc/jt6m.htm. On June 25, K0GU in Wellington, Colorado (DN70mq) worked 18 European six-meter stations, and a few more the next two days. K3MSB of Airville, Pennsylvania worked a number of West Coast 6-meter stations, and on June 27 worked IK2GSO on CW at 2156z. W9IND of Indianapolis reported that his club's six meter beacon, W9VW was heard in Scotland, with propagation from EM69 to IO75. Also in EM69, KJ9C had great luck on 6 meters late in the afternoon on June 29, working several Europeans on CW. He wonders why more overseas stations don't try 6 meter CW, and notes ''The Caribbean guys seem to be stuck on SSB.'' Dick Battle, AK4RB in FM06 in North Carolina was thrilled to work WW2R in North Texas (EM03) for his first ever 6 meter QSO on June 30. Dick does not have a 6-meter antenna, but used an antenna tuner to load his HF wire doublet hidden in the attic of his townhouse. On June 26 Kevin Blanton, KE5DUK in Beebe, Arkansas(EM34) worked his first long-distance 6 meter contact using FM simplex on 52.525 MHz and talked to someone in FN06 in Ontario. He also worked New York, Tennessee, North Dakota and Pennsylvania. There were many more 6-meter reports this week, too many to mention here. If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers, email the author at, [EMAIL PROTECTED] For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL Technical Information Service at http://www.arrl.org/tis/info/propagation.html. For a detailed explanation of the numbers used in this bulletin, see http://www.arrl.org/tis/info/k9la-prop.html. An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://www.arrl.org/w1aw/prop/ . Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve overseas locations are at http://www.arrl.org/qst/propcharts/. Sunspot numbers for June 28 through July 4
[DX-NEWS] ARLP028 Propagation de K7RA
SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP028 ARLP028 Propagation de K7RA ZCZC AP28 QST de W1AW Propagation Forecast Bulletin 28 ARLP028 From Tad Cook, K7RA Seattle, WA July 14, 2006 To all radio amateurs SB PROP ARL ARLP028 ARLP028 Propagation de K7RA Sunspot numbers and solar flux declined this week. Average daily sunspot numbers dropped 10 points to 25.6, and average solar flux was down nearly 11 points. There were no remarkable geomagnetic disturbances. July 9 saw a weak solar wind from a coronal mass ejection, followed by another period two days later, but every day the IMF pointed north, protecting Earth's geomagnetic field. The latest forecast calls for solar flux around 70 over the next week, lower than it has been lately. Sunspot numbers should also be low. Predicted planetary A index for July 14 is 8, and then 5 for the next week. Eric Hall, K9GY of Lansing, Illinois reminds 6-meter operators (or anyone with a 6-meter radio for that matter) to operate the CQ World Wide VHF Contest this weekend. Six meters continues to amaze. July 12 saw great openings, with European stations working North America. A check of 6-meter DX spots for the previous 36 hours on July 13 at http://www.dxers.info/ showed several thousand entries over a 24-hour period. EH8BPX in Canary Islands showed up 35 times in 36 hours, entries either from or about him. He seemed to work many stations on the East Coast and in the Midwest. If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers, email the author at, k7raarrl.net. For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL Technical Information Service at http://www.arrl.org/tis/info/propagation.html. For a detailed explanation of the numbers used in this bulletin, see http://www.arrl.org/tis/info/k9la-prop.html. An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://www.arrl.org/w1aw/prop/ . Sunspot numbers for July 6 through 12 were 34, 35, 34, 33, 18, 13 and 12 with a mean of 25.6. 10.7 cm flux was 85, 79.9, 77.4, 74.6, 72.8, 71.2, and 70.6, with a mean of 75.9. Estimated planetary A indices were 11, 6, 3, 5, 11, 7 and 12 with a mean of 7.9. Estimated mid-latitude A indices were 7, 5, 2, 5, 12, 5 and 9, with a mean of 6.4. /EX -- Archives http://www.mail-archive.com/dx-news@njdxa.org THE DXR is sponsored by the North Jersey DX Association. Please visit our website: http://www.njdxa.org/index.php scroll to bottom for subscribe/unsubscribe options --
