[DX-NEWS] ARLP032 Propagation de K7RA
SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP032 ARLP032 Propagation de K7RA ZCZC AP33 QST de W1AW Propagation Forecast Bulletin 32 ARLP032 From Tad Cook, K7RA Seattle, WA August 10, 2012 To all radio amateurs SB PROP ARL ARLP032 ARLP032 Propagation de K7RA The bulletin today is coming from Eugene, Oregon. Average daily sunspot numbers rose over 20 points this week, or about twenty-percent, to 119.4. The average daily solar flux was up 3 points to 134.7. Geomagnetic activity was quiet, with unsettled conditions around August 2. The NOAA/USAF prediction has solar flux at 135 on August 10, 130 on August 11-12, then 125, 120, and 115 on August 13-15, then 110 on August 16-17, then 95 on August 18, 100 on August 19-20, then 110, 115, 120, 125, 130, 135, 140 and 145 on August 21-28, then 140 on August 29-31. Predicted planetary A index is 5, 8 and 10 on August 10-12, then 5 on August 13-15, then 10, 8, 5, 8 and 8 on August 16-20, then 5 on August 21-23, and 8 on August 24-25, then 12 on August 26, then 5 on August 27 through September 14. F.K. Janda, OK1HH sees quiet geomagnetic conditions on August 10, mostly quiet August 11, active to disturbed August 12, quiet to active August 13, mostly quiet on August 14, quiet August 15-16, quiet to unsettled August 17-20, mostly quiet August 21, quiet August 22-24, quiet to active August 25-26, mostly quiet August 27-28, active to disturbed again August 29-30, and a return to quiet on August 31 through September 1. Check out some nice solar images at http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/badastronomy/2012/08/09/the-sun-is-shagadelic-baby/ and http://www.space.com/17003-sun-eruption-solar-filament-video.html. O.J. Lougheed, AD7DR of Lopez Island, Washington wrote: I've been interested in transpolar propagation since I lived in Irkutsk, Siberia from 1997-2004. I'm thinking of putting together a ham club at the school on Lopez Island and your name popped up with an internet search. There is so little on the web. With sunspots picking up, things (I would assume) will get exciting. Do you know of any EU or Russian/Ukrainian folks interested in such propagation? I don't know, but if any readers across the poles or anywhere want to contact AD7DR, look him up in QRZ.com, where you will find his email address. You will have to login, but getting an account is free. Larry Godek, W0OGH of Gilbert, Arizona wrote on Thursday, August 9, Spratly Island, 9M4SLL has been worked on both 20 meter SSB and CW, along with CW on 15, with great signals. Comoros Islands, D64K was worked on 15 yesterday at 2155Z. Had good signals into this area all the time he was on the air. Typically shortly after I get to work them, the band goes out. Happens a lot to me on 20 as well. Just like Arizona is the last place to make a QSO even though I hear the DX for long periods of time. ZS2I was worked this morning at 1353Z on 20 CW long path. He couldn't hear me on the regular path so turned the antenna around to 270 degrees and he came up to over S9. Talk about short hop, J68HZ was worked yesterday at 2224Z on 28.375. He was working mainly 4-land and the east coast. Surprised he came back to me. Same thing with HT9H on 18.073 MHz at 2215Z. But then we had a large storm front within 100 miles from the north around thru the east to the SE. Then 20 this morning has been excellent to the Pacific. Yesterday in the morning we had a 6 meter opening, double hop into Florida, Tennessee, South Carolina and Texas. Nothing unusual about the Texas stations as the area from EM00 though EM03 and EM10 thru EM13 are the first hop for us. They usually have loud signals and are typically the first stations from the E we hear. There would be an idea. If it were possible, have any DX station, maybe some of the rarer types, run a WSPR beacon. If they can capture your signal at 2W, then you've got a path. But then there is a lot of one way propagation that goes on isn't there? Really been a pretty fair year so far for DX. 30 meters has been a disappointment as has 10. If it wasn't for 15 and 20 there would be very little DX. We print all the ARRL bulletins on a Model 28 TTY machine here. Everything that is 45 Baud 60WPM anyway. Really nice that ARRL continues that mode. Lots of hams around the country have real mechanical TTY machines and look forward to running them several times a week. Keeps the oil and grease from getting old, kinda like the body! Burton Boyd, W7IIT of Bremerton, Washington says his hearing isn't as sharp as it used to be, and he can't always hear the WWV broadcasts of geophysical data at 18 minutes after each hour. I advised Burt to get the info off the internet at http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/ftpdir/latest/wwv.txt. If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers, email the author at, k...@arrl.net. For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL Technical Information Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals. For an
[DX-NEWS] ARLP032 Propagation de K7RA
SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP032 ARLP032 Propagation de K7RA ZCZC AP32 QST de W1AW Propagation Forecast Bulletin 32 ARLP032 From Tad Cook, K7RA Seattle, WA August 12, 2011 To all radio amateurs SB PROP ARL ARLP032 ARLP032 Propagation de K7RA Average daily sunspot numbers declined over 24 points to 75.1 this week, and average daily solar flux was down over 12 points to 104.3. Big events this week were solar flares, with a substantial geomagnetic upset on Friday and Saturday, August 5 and 6, when the planetary A index was 49 and 31. The largest solar flare of the current sunspot cycle, an X7 flare, occurred at 0805z on August 9, emerging from sunspot group 1263. This does not appear to be earth-directed. The latest forecast from NOAA has solar flux at 85 on August 12-13, at 90 on August 14-16, 95 on August 17-18, 98 on August 19-20, 100 on August 21, then 105 on August 22-30. Planetary A index is expected to be 5 on August 12-14, then 15, 18, 12, 5, 8, 5, 12 and 8 on August 15-22, 5 on August 23-25, and 15, 10, 8, 5 and 5 on August 26-30. Reviewing recent sunspot activity, on August 4 there were four sunspot groups visible, 1260, 1261, 1263 and 1266. Total area covered by sunspots was 1380 millionths of a solar hemisphere, the largest coverage since March 8, 2011. On August 5 new sunspot group 1267 appeared, and on August 6 groups 1260 and 1266 disappeared, and new group 1268 arrived. 1268 disappeared and 1266 reappeared on August 7, and on August 8, 1261 was gone and 1268 emerged again. 1268 then vanished again on August 9. On August 10 sunspot group 1267 was gone, and 1268 came back. On August 11 sunspot group 1263 was gone, and new groups 1269 and 1270 appeared. Kent Doucey, N0IRM of Galena, Missouri was on 20 meter SSB on August 3, and at 0239z worked Victor, E51CG on Rarotonga. Signals were strong, so they switched to 10 meters and connected again, this time with weaker but quite readable signals, at a distance of about 5,900 miles. If you look up both of these stations at QRZ.com, you'll see some nice photos of their antennas. Jeff Hartley, N8II of Shepherdstown, West Virginia wrote on August 6: We had some nice sporadic E on Wednesday the August 3 evening here with 6M open to W9/0. I very briefly worked WA2BEV in Butler, PA on 10M only about 190 miles away via Es and logged a couple of MI stations there, possibly the result of the flares. Conditions on the 11th (this is confusing, as the email was sent August 6) were decent with very good prop to VK and LP into ZS on 20M around 12Z. I then went up to 15 to find ST0R on CW about S4 here and not workable thru the EU/JA pile up (in 15 minutes they worked no NA stations). Returning after 15Z, I luckily found their QSX frequency and was the next QSO with ST0R signal up to about S6. I then tried 12M and worked PA1CC about S5 and CS2W on CW. A listen on 10M yielded hearing an I-ZERO beacon an hearing IW0 working someone not audible, but CQs yielded no QSOs. Signals on 15M in the 15Z hour were good up to LY and SM, but nothing heard from Russia. Regarding W7FA, Vince's comments about solar flare/storm enhancement of signals, this is definitely true even sometimes over polar paths. But another factor, time of day, would explain a big difference in signal strength; his SSB QSO with ST0R in the 23Z hour was at a time when signals would be expected to be much weaker than approaching west coast sunset around 02Z. Robert Elek, W3HKK of Johnstown, Ohio is excited about six meters. He sent this: HUGE 6m Es opening from central Ohio to New England and the Maritimes this Sunday morning (August 7) around noon, with signals the strongest I've heard them all season. Mick, W1JJ with his box 9 el Yagis on a cell phone tower took my S-meter to unparalleled heights ... 40 dB over! And VE1SKY, Roger, and I had what seemed like a one hour arm chair rag chew on a variety of topics, while the S meter rolled between 20 over and S7. Lots more folks getting into MS with the WSJT software, as a way to use 6m in the 'off-season.' Then worked a couple of 59+ sigs from the NYC area which is very short Es, indicative of intense sporadic E ionization. I even heard stations to my west while beaming ENE. As I rotated the 5 el Yagi west they dropped out, so I was hearing S3-4 sigs from behind me also bouncing off the same sporadic E cloud (backscatter) that was propagating sigs so well from New England. Incredible! Two days earlier, on Friday night between 6-7:30 pm, I made my first AU(aurora) QSO ever on 6m, and then 23 more, into MI, ON, WI, MN, IL, IN, IA, PA, MD, VA, KY, TN, MD and OH. Strangest of all the buzz-saw sounding CW notes was KA1VHF, Steve, located a mere 20 mi west of me. We've worked a few times but this was the first time via AU! Amazing to hear a local coming in via AU! And two days before that, on Wed around 1430z I added G8BCG and G4RRA plus CU2JT to the grid square collection for this season. And the previous Sunday night I
[DX-NEWS] ARLP032 Propagation de K7RA
SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP032 ARLP032 Propagation de K7RA ZCZC AP32 QST de W1AW Propagation Forecast Bulletin 32 ARLP032 From Tad Cook, K7RA Seattle, WA August 7, 2009 To all radio amateurs SB PROP ARL ARLP032 ARLP032 Propagation de K7RA We had some nice sunspot activity from July 3-10, and were hoping for a return 27-28 days later, but it never happened. Varying by latitude, the sun rotates relative to earth about every 27.5 days. If that same region was still active or activity renewed, then we might have seen something between July 30 and August 7, which is today. Instead, the quiet continues. Some rather odd numbers appeared on August 5. Check out the eight planetary K index readings on that date at http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/ftpdir/indices/DGD.txt and note that they never varied. Dean Lewis, W9WGV of Palatine, Illinois wrote this week asking about the most likely path that his signal took on July 12. Because of local restrictions, he uses inside wire for an antenna, so he can't tell for sure which direction a signal is coming from. At 0620z in the IARU HF World Championship he worked VK2AYD on 20 meter CW. He wondered if the path was most likely over the Pacific, or the Atlantic Ocean and Africa? I ran some numbers on W6ELprop (download from http://www.qsl.net/w6elprop/) and used a location of 42.148 deg N and 88.014 deg W for Dean, and according to the entry on QRZ.com, VK2AYD is in grid square QF68in, which W6ELprop translates to 31.44 deg S, 152.71 deg E. W6ELprop indicates that the short path is 9,069 miles with a beam heading from Illinois of 262 degrees. Long path is at 82 degrees from Dean, at 15,806 miles. With a smoothed sunspot number of 3, it shows that they worked each other at the optimum time for that band. From 0400-0600z the program predicts signals at 19, 21, 23, 24 and 25 db above .5 microvolt, on half hour intervals. After that, signals drop out, which is exactly what Dean experienced. Any possible long path opening would be much weaker and also earlier, according to the software. It says 2300-z is most likely. Among six meter reports this week, Bill Turner, W4WNT says he was mobile running 40 watts on the beach at Oak Island, North Carolina (FM03) when he worked EA8CQS (IL18) in the Canary Islands on phone on July 29. Bill was using one of those popular and inexpensive monoband whips on the back of his car. Jon Jones, N0JK of Wichita, Kansas had a lot of 2 meter e-skip excitement on July 29-30, but missed openings the following day. One July 29 he worked (with UTC, call, grid square and state abbreviation) 2242 W1AIM FN34 VT, 2245 K1WHS FN43 ME (heard off and on for over an hour.) 2,300 km, 2252 W2RJO FN23 NY, 2332 KC2RDC FN14 NY, 2349 VE2DFO FN25 QC. He sent a link showing the K1WHS station, at http://www.directivesystems.com/144MHZ.htm. Jon was using a 7 element Yagi on a stepladder in his bedroom. It was facing northeast, but Jon didn't say if the antenna was pointed out the window. George Ackinclose, W4GNE of Chesterfield, Virginia had an exciting time with that same sporadic-e 2 meter opening on July 29 from 2200-z. He was using a 12 element Yagi on a 20-foot boom, but just 25 feet above ground. George reports that he worked ''K0AWU in EN37, Minnesota (approx 1,000 mi.), K0SIX in EN35, Minnesota, KA9CFD in EN40, Illinois, WB0ULX in EN04 South Dakota (approx 1,200 miles.), K0KFC in EN35, Wisconsin, K0CJ in EN34, Minnesota and N0UK in EN34, Minnesota''. ''I have only been in amateur radio since Dec. 2002 and that was the most heart racing, adrenaline pumping action on ANY band that I have been a part of... so far. I'm certain that if I had a little better antenna height I would have worked a lot more, I heard many others just too far down in the noise for me to pick out''. All these contacts had good signals, S5-S9. Roger Harrison, VK2ZRH sent an interesting email concerning a 3-month running mean of sunspot numbers he has been looking at. You can see his analysis and discussion at http://www.vklogger.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=43t=8661. Roger wrote, ''During the late-1980s, I worked with Dr Leo McNamara to produce a series of 9 articles titled ''Radio Communicators' Guide to the Ionosphere'', published in Australian Electronics Monthly (I was Editor/Publisher), Dr McNamara subsequently developed that into a book - ''Radio Amateurs Guide to the Ionosphere'', published by Kreiger. More recently, from around 2002, I began re-acquainting myself with the world of sporadic E research and sporadic E VHF propagation''. This weekend is the Worked All Europe DX CW Contest. Conditions should continue to be quiet, although currently on Friday morning the interplanetary magnetic field is pointing south, leaving our earth vulnerable to a solar wind stream. Predicted planetary A index for August 7-11 is 5, 5, 7, 5 and 5. If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers, email the author at, k...@arrl.net. For more information
[DX-NEWS] ARLP032 Propagation de K7RA
SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP032 ARLP032 Propagation de K7RA ZCZC AP32 QST de W1AW Propagation Forecast Bulletin 32 ARLP032 From Tad Cook, K7RA Seattle, WA August 1, 2008 To all radio amateurs SB PROP ARL ARLP032 ARLP032 Propagation de K7RA July ended with no sunspots at all, save for three days, July 18-20, when one weak sunspot group appeared and faded from view. Sunspot numbers for those days were 11, 12 and 11. This brings us to our practice of presenting the average daily sunspot number for the past three months, then comparing it with a monthly 3-month moving average for the past couple of years. There were 92 days in May, June and July, and 70 out of those 92 days had no sunspots. This brings us back toward the low of 3 from last fall, centered on October. The average daily sunspot number for the last three months, centered on June, was just 3.7. Jun 06 28.9 Jul 06 23.3 Aug 06 23.5 Sep 06 21.2 Oct 06 24.1 Nov 06 23.1 Dec 06 27.3 Jan 07 22.7 Feb 07 18.5 Mar 07 11.2 Apr 07 12.2 May 07 15.8 Jun 07 18.7 Jul 07 15.4 Aug 07 10.2 Sep 07 5.4 Oct 07 3 Nov 07 6.9 Dec 07 8.1 Jan 08 8.5 Feb 08 8.4 Mar 08 8.4 Apr 08 8.9 May 08 5 Jun 08 3.7 The outlook from the US Air Force Space Weather operations for many weeks now has shown a predicted solar flux of 66, and their prediction from July 31 shows the same, for the next 45 days. This tells me that there isn't any period where we might expect more sunspot activity, or at least no way to foresee it. They predict the next geomagnetic activity of any note for August 10, with a planetary A index of 20. They predict a planetary A index of 8 for August 1, then 5 for August 2-6, then 8 again on August 7. Geophysical Institute Prague echoes that prediction with quiet to unsettled conditions for August 1 and 7, and quiet conditions August 2-6. In response to WD4ELG's comments in ARLP031, Jim Henderson, KF7E of Queen Creek, Arizona has some interesting observations. Jim writes, ''During these spotless and near-minimum flux conditions, I have seen the extreme divergence of the day-to-day propagation paths as a function of the traditional flux numbers. Allowing for seasonal trends, the differences in direction and quality of openings on a given band from day-to-day where the flux and A and K indices remain nearly unchanged for days, the openings generally show much more relationship to the intensity of the solar wind''. ''From here, the patterns of propagation, under the weak stimulation of near minimum flux, show much more pronounced linking to the dynamic wind speed and composition than to simple 2800 MHz flux measurements''. ''I believe without the positive contribution of the 'ionospheric bias' provided by even a low flux, say 80-85, even a small increase in solar wind has a profound effect on the daily paths''. ''Put another way, the good/bad effects upon propagation from minor solar wind changes (not associated with flares and CMEs) are much more observable when the flux is hovering under 68 or so than when it is higher. At that time, we feel the big effects from the major storms. But it is interesting to note the nuances of propagation (say, by observing the NCDXF HF beacons daily) during a quiescent sun''. Thanks, Jim. Maurice Picard, W6FQS of Chico, California wrote: ''I noticed a forecast on a propagation website (http://dx.qsl.net/propagation/index.html) that the geomagnetic field would be unsettled due to a solar boundary crossing. I don't recall seeing reference to this phenomena in any previous forecasts. What is this boundary crossing?'' Carl Luetzelschwab, K9LA provided us with this link explaining the term: www.ngdc.noaa.gov/stp/SOLAR/ftpsectorboundaries.html. Carl will be writing the bulletin next week, for Friday, August 8, while your regular author is out of town. Carl will also be on the road, travelling to Rochester, Minnesota for the W0DXCC Convention (see http://www.w0dxcc.com) at the Rochester Amateur Radio Expo. Carl will post his bulletin from Dubuque, Iowa. Check out Carl's excellent propagation writings at http://mysite.verizon.net/k9la/index.html. Another multi-hop sporadic E report from six meters, and this was just last evening. Dave Greer, N4KZ of Frankfort, Kentucky (EM78ne) reports that beginning at 2322z on July 31, on 6 meter CW he worked EA8/DL6FAW (Canary Islands) with good signals both ways. At 2325z he worked EA8AK on CW, and at 0026z on August 1 he worked EA8/DL6FAW on SSB. Dave reports that both stations made many U.S. contacts, but also called CQ many times with no takers. He thinks this is a good example of distant six meter signals propagating to very specific areas, but not others. For instance, he saw that EA6SX in the Balearic Islands was spotted on 50.105 MHz over several hours, but Dave never heard him. He also made Canary Island contacts in summer 2006 and 2007, again working stations in pairs, but earlier in the season and earlier in the day. On June 18, 2006 he worked them around
[DX-NEWS] ARLP032 Propagation de K7RA
SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP032 ARLP032 Propagation de K7RA ZCZC AP32 QST de W1AW Propagation Forecast Bulletin 32 ARLP032 From Tad Cook, K7RA Seattle, WA August 3, 2007 To all radio amateurs SB PROP ARL ARLP032 ARLP032 Propagation de K7RA Average daily sunspot numbers rose very little this week, less than 6 points to 7.3. There were no major geomagnetic upsets, only slightly unsettled conditions on the first day of August. We saw eight straight days of no sunspots, then a spot or two over four days, then no spots on the first two days of August. A week from now, August 10, we may see the beginning of several days with a few sunspots every day. Expect unsettled geomagnetic conditions centered on August 7 and again on August 10. Geophysical Institute Prague predicts quiet conditions August 3-5, quiet to unsettled August 6, unsettled to active August 7, and back to quiet August 8-9. There were six and two meter reports this week. On Sunday, July 29 Dick Bingham, W7WKR, who lives in the very remote mountain village of Stehekin, Washington (reached by boat) reports that he began hearing six meter beacons around 1800z, and until 2300z he worked 22 grids, including HR9BFS in EK66 (Honduras) as well as WA/CA/ID/MT/CO/TX/UT. Dick is blocked by a high ridge running northwest to southeast, with takeoff elevations in excess of 25 degrees, so he doesn't hear the northeastern United States and Canada. WB4SLM reported interesting E-skip on 2 meters, and from EM82 he worked EM14, EM15 and EM25, all around 2100z on Sunday. He lives in Georgia, and during a 30 meter QSO with his father, W9JNH in Texas, around 2133-2135z he heard long delayed echoes on his CW signal. Four days earlier on June 25, Roger Lapthorn, G3XBM reported his best 6-meter DX ever when he worked K1TOL in Maine on CW. Roger was running just a few watts into a vertical mounted on the side of his house. Roger says the distance was over 5000 kilometers. With July over, we can spin some numbers and look for trends. Monthly averages of daily sunspot numbers for April 2006 through July 2007 were 55.2, 39.6, 24.4, 22.6, 22.8, 25.2, 14.7, 31.5, 22.2, 28.2, 17.3, 9.8, 6.9, 19.8, 20.7 and 15.6. Monthly averages of daily solar flux for the same period were 88.9, 80.9, 76.5, 75.8, 79, 77.8, 74.3, 86.3, 84.4, 83.5, 77.7, 72.2, 72.4, 74.4, 73.7 and 71.6. Looking at 3-month smoothed sunspot numbers, now the July numbers we can add to May and June to show the three-month average centered on June. These numbers are based on data from the past 21 months, November 2005 through July 2007: Dec 05 40.6 Jan 06 32.4 Feb 06 18.1 Mar 06 27.7 Apr 06 38.5 May 06 39.7 Jun 06 28.9 Jul 06 23.3 Aug 06 23.5 Sep 06 21.2 Oct 06 24.1 Nov 06 23.1 Dec 06 27.3 Jan 07 22.7 Feb 07 18.5 Mar 07 11.2 Apr 07 12.2 May 07 15.8 Jun 07 18.7 These numbers are calculated like this: April 1 through June 30 is 91 days. Add all the daily sunspot numbers over those three months, then divide by 91, and the result is approximately 15.8, centered on May, the middle month. Likewise, May 1 through July 31 has 92 days, and the sum of daily sunspot numbers over that period divided by 92 is 18.7. If the average of daily sunspot numbers for the 31 days of August turns out to be more than 20 (meaning the sum of all the sunspot numbers for the month exceeds 620), we should see the three-month average centered on July rise above the June average. We will see that result in ARLP037, on September 7. This 3-month moving average of sunspot numbers is turning out to be a nice indicator of cycle trends, with the average smoothly declining from December through March, and increasing since. We'll know some day, perhaps in a year or two, if the low number in March is a good indicator of cycle minimum or not. Users of Scott Craig's Solar Data Plotting Utility (available free from http://www.craigcentral.com/sol.asp) may have noticed that this cycle minimum so far doesn't look as long as the previous minimum around 1995-1997. But of course, if we are at the minimum or just passed it, then we are only looking at probably half of its eventual length on the graph. I hope the upturn comes soon, and is dramatic. If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers, email the author at, [EMAIL PROTECTED] . For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL Technical Information Service at http://www.arrl.org/tis/info/propagation.html. For a detailed explanation of the numbers used in this bulletin, see http://www.arrl.org/tis/info/k9la-prop.html . An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://www.arrl.org/w1aw/prop/. Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve overseas locations are at http://www.arrl.org/qst/propcharts/. Sunspot numbers for July 26 through August 1 were 0, 0, 13, 14, 13, 11 and 0 with a mean of 7.3. 10.7 cm flux was 68.4, 68.7, 69.9, 69, 68.9, 68, and 68.8, with a mean of 68.8. Estimated planetary A indices were 9, 8, 4, 14, 10,
[DX-NEWS] ARLP032 Propagation de K7RA
SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP032 ARLP032 Propagation de K7RA ZCZC AP32 QST de W1AW Propagation Forecast Bulletin 32 ARLP032 From Tad Cook, K7RA Seattle, WA August 11, 2006 To all radio amateurs SB PROP ARL ARLP032 ARLP032 Propagation de K7RA On four days this week the sun was spotless, so the average daily sunspot number for the week dropped over 11 points to 8.6. Sunspot numbers are now recovering and climbing, from zero on Monday to 12, 25 and 37 on Tuesday through Thursday. Sunspot numbers and solar flux should continue a modest recovery through next week. When the sunspots were zero, the solar flux (a measurement of 10.7 GHz energy from the sun, observed at a station in British Columbia) was below 70. Now solar flux is expected to rise in the short term to 85 or more. Rising sunspot numbers and solar flux mean higher MUF (Maximum Usable Frequency), although not a lot higher. For instance, using propagation prediction software, for today with zero sunspots, the MUF over the path from Philadelphia to Germany would go above 17 MHz from 1430-2230z, to a maximum of 17.6 MHz. But with an average sunspot number of 40, the MUF over the same path rises above 19 MHz from 1400-2230z, peaking at 19.8 MHz. If the sunspot number were 120 instead, a figure we won't observe for a few years, the MUF would rise above 23 MHz from 1430-2130z, peaking at 23.8 MHz. The difference on those three scenarios would be whether 20 meters, 17 meters, or 15 meters is the highest practical band to use. With existing conditions as they are, that path to Germany would be best on 17 meters from 1230-z, with stronger signals toward the end of that period, but the best chances for an opening around 1730-2100z. 20 meters should have slightly stronger signals, with openings beginning weakly around 1130z and signals gradually increasing to 0200z, and the signals falling off afterward. Best bet would be 2130-0100z on 20 meters. Compared to a month ago, operators at each end of that path would notice a much stronger chance of a 17-meter opening, and a much earlier closing of 20 meters, with the days getting shorter as we move toward the fall equinox. Similarly, a month's difference on the West Coast to Japan path would see the rise of 15 meters as a viable choice from 2130-0200z. Moving toward fall, 20 and 17 meters would close a little earlier, while 30 and 40 meters would each open about an hour or more earlier. Steve Rasmussen, N0WY of Plattsmouth, Nebraska is the contest manager for 10-10 International (see http://www.ten-ten.org/) and he says ten meters had great openings after sunrise and after dusk during the 10-10 contest last weekend. He worked 151 stations, mostly to the east and southeast. N2EOC (with an exceptional 10 meter antenna, says Steve, although he didn't say what N2EOC is using) in New Jersey worked 255 stations. Steve says, ''WN4AMO in Florida did 259 and AH6RF in Hawaii made 184. KK7UU in Oregon ended up with 146. The band is NOT dead. You just have to be there when it is open.'' W4HLR, Howard Runions of Newbern, Tennessee says he got cards from F8DBF and HI3TEJ for his 3 watt 50.115 MHz SSB contacts on July 17. He is thrilled with the cards, naturally. If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers, email the author at, [EMAIL PROTECTED] For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL Technical Information Service at http://www.arrl.org/tis/info/propagation.html. For a detailed explanation of the numbers used in this bulletin, see http://www.arrl.org/tis/info/k9la-prop.html. An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://www.arrl.org/w1aw/prop/ . Sunspot numbers for August 3 through 9 were 23, 0, 0, 0, 0, 12 and 25 with a mean of 8.6. 10.7 cm flux was 71.3, 69.6, 69.5, 69.5, 69.8, 71.4, and 74.1, with a mean of 70.7. Estimated planetary A indices were 6, 3, 4, 4, 32, 12 and 9 with a mean of 10. Estimated mid-latitude A indices were 5, 2, 2, 2, 19, 10 and 9, with a mean of 7. /EX -- Archives http://www.mail-archive.com/dx-news@njdxa.org THE DXR is sponsored by the North Jersey DX Association. Please visit our website: http://www.njdxa.org/index.php scroll to bottom for subscribe/unsubscribe options --
[DX-NEWS] ARLP032 Propagation de K7RA
SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP032 ARLP032 Propagation de K7RA ZCZC AP32 QST de W1AW Propagation Forecast Bulletin 32 ARLP032 From Tad Cook, K7RA Seattle, WA July 29, 2005 To all radio amateurs SB PROP ARL ARLP032 ARLP032 Propagation de K7RA We're coming to the end of a month of large contrasts in terms of solar activity. Around July 4 there was a huge increase in sunspot numbers, followed by a very quiet period in which no sunspots were seen. Although five days following mid-July were devoid of any sunspots, our sun rotates relative to Earth, so in a little less than four weeks that very active area of sunspots is back again in the same position. The popular figure of 27.5 days is regarded as the period of the sun's rotation relative to our planet, but the actual figure varies according to which latitude of the sun we are observing. If the Earth was stationary and our observations of the sun were from a fixed point, the rotation near the sun's equator would be about 25.6 days, and 30.9 days at 60 degrees latitude. We are most concerned with sunspots near the sun's equator, because they are in the most geoeffective or Earth-affecting position compared to those at higher latitudes. More about the sun's rotation is found about 2/3 down the page at http://www.sunspot.noao.edu/sunspot/pr/answerbook/sun.html#q130. Watch for sunspot and solar flux numbers to rise over the next few days, peaking from August 1-6 as last month's spotted region returns to view. Geomagnetic indices should drop and stay low. Predicted planetary A index for July 29 through August 2 is 15, 12, 10, 5 and 5. Over the long term, the general direction of the cycle is down, although variations such as the increased activity around July 4 are occasionally observed. Looking at a smoothed prediction for sunspot numbers over the next few years at http://www.sec.noaa.gov/weekly/pdf/prf1557.pdf, sunspots should continue to decline overall, and are predicted to rise again to the current level around December 2007. If you would like to comment or have a tip, email the author at, [EMAIL PROTECTED] For more information concerning radio propagation and an explanation of the numbers used in this bulletin see the ARRL Technical Information Service propagation page at, http://www.arrl.org/tis/info/propagation.html. An archive of past bulletins is found at, http://www.arrl.org/w1aw/prop/. Sunspot numbers for July 21 through 27 were 0, 0, 20, 18, 23, 29 and 19 with a mean of 15.6. 10.7 cm flux was 72.8, 73.6, 80.1, 80.2, 83.9, 86.5 and 90.6, with a mean of 81.1. Estimated planetary A indices were 29, 13, 5, 5, 6, 6 and 17 with a mean of 11.6. Estimated mid-latitude A indices were 19, 8, 2, 3, 3, 4 and 15, with a mean of 7.7. /EX -- Archives http://www.mail-archive.com/dx-news@njdxa.org THE DXR is sponsored by the North Jersey DX Association. Please visit our website: http://www.njdxa.org/index.php scroll to bottom for subscribe/unsubscribe options --
[DX-NEWS] ARLP032 Propagation de K7RA
SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP032 ARLP032 Propagation de K7RA ZCZC AP32 QST de W1AW Propagation Forecast Bulletin 32 ARLP032 From Tad Cook, K7RA Seattle, WA August 6, 2004 To all radio amateurs SB PROP ARL ARLP032 ARLP032 Propagation de K7RA Average daily sunspot and solar flux numbers dropped dramatically this week from last. Average daily sunspot numbers were nearly 56 points lower at 42.4, and average solar flux was down over 53 points at 88. Now that we are in the month of August, we can look at July numbers compared to previous months. Over the past year, October 2003 had the highest monthly average of sunspot and solar flux numbers. Relative to the decline in the solar cycle, the July 2004 numbers were really quite high, no doubt due to the large number of sunspots over a two week period ending around July 26. The numbers for July were higher than for any period since October and November of last year. The monthly average of daily sunspot numbers, August 2003 through July 2004 were 114.3, 82.6, 118.9, 103, 75.7, 62.3, 75.6, 81, 59.3, 77.3, 77 and 87.8. The monthly averages of solar flux for the same period were 122.1, 112.2, 155.5, 140.8, 116.1, 114.1, 107, 112.1, 101.2, 99.8, 97.4 and 119.8. Geomagnetic conditions have been nice and quiet over the past week, with the A index in the low single digits and periods when the K index was 0 at all latitudes. Over this weekend, we could see a rise in geomagnetic activity to unsettled levels. The predicted planetary A index for August 6-10 is 8, 15, 15, 15 and 8. Solar flux is expected to remain under 100 over the weekend, but slowly rise to a predicted peak around 120 from August 14-19. An increase in activity after August 12 is expected because of the return of sunspot 652, which came into view July 17 during its last transit across the sun, disappearing after July 29. It was squarely facing the earth on July 23, just after the peak in sunspot and solar flux numbers for the month. Sunspot numbers for July 29 through August 4 were 32, 33, 39, 40, 39, 52 and 62 with a mean of 42.4. 10.7 cm flux was 99.7, 88.7, 86.4, 83.4, 84.5, 87.6 and 85.4, with a mean of 88. Estimated planetary A indices were 9, 7, 9, 8, 8, 5 and 4, with a mean of 7.1. Estimated mid-latitude A indices were 6, 7, 7, 9, 5, 2 and 2, with a mean of 5.4. /EX -- To post a message the subject must begin with [:dx-news:] (all lower case) and sent to [EMAIL PROTECTED] Archives http://www.mail-archive.com/[EMAIL PROTECTED] --
[DX-NEWS] ARLP032 Propagation de K7RA
SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP032 ARLP032 Propagation de K7RA ZCZC AP32 QST de W1AW Propagation Forecast Bulletin 32 ARLP032 From Tad Cook, K7RA Seattle, WA August 6, 2004 To all radio amateurs SB PROP ARL ARLP032 ARLP032 Propagation de K7RA Average daily sunspot and solar flux numbers dropped dramatically this week from last. Average daily sunspot numbers were nearly 56 points lower at 42.4, and average solar flux was down over 53 points at 88. Now that we are in the month of August, we can look at July numbers compared to previous months. Over the past year, October 2003 had the highest monthly average of sunspot and solar flux numbers. Relative to the decline in the solar cycle, the July 2004 numbers were really quite high, no doubt due to the large number of sunspots over a two week period ending around July 26. The numbers for July were higher than for any period since October and November of last year. The monthly average of daily sunspot numbers, August 2003 through July 2004 were 114.3, 82.6, 118.9, 103, 75.7, 62.3, 75.6, 81, 59.3, 77.3, 77 and 87.8. The monthly averages of solar flux for the same period were 122.1, 112.2, 155.5, 140.8, 116.1, 114.1, 107, 112.1, 101.2, 99.8, 97.4 and 119.8. Geomagnetic conditions have been nice and quiet over the past week, with the A index in the low single digits and periods when the K index was 0 at all latitudes. Over this weekend, we could see a rise in geomagnetic activity to unsettled levels. The predicted planetary A index for August 6-10 is 8, 15, 15, 15 and 8. Solar flux is expected to remain under 100 over the weekend, but slowly rise to a predicted peak around 120 from August 14-19. An increase in activity after August 12 is expected because of the return of sunspot 652, which came into view July 17 during its last transit across the sun, disappearing after July 29. It was squarely facing the earth on July 23, just after the peak in sunspot and solar flux numbers for the month. Sunspot numbers for July 29 through August 4 were 32, 33, 39, 40, 39, 52 and 62 with a mean of 42.4. 10.7 cm flux was 99.7, 88.7, 86.4, 83.4, 84.5, 87.6 and 85.4, with a mean of 88. Estimated planetary A indices were 9, 7, 9, 8, 8, 5 and 4, with a mean of 7.1. Estimated mid-latitude A indices were 6, 7, 7, 9, 5, 2 and 2, with a mean of 5.4. /EX -- To post a message the subject must begin with [:dx-news:] (all lower case) and sent to [EMAIL PROTECTED] Archives http://www.mail-archive.com/[EMAIL PROTECTED] --
