[DX-NEWS] ARLP016 Propagation de K7RA

2013-04-19 Thread jjreisert
SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP016
ARLP016 Propagation de K7RA

ZCZC AP16
QST de W1AW  
Propagation Forecast Bulletin 16  ARLP016
From Tad Cook, K7RA
Seattle, WA  April 19, 2013
To all radio amateurs 

SB PROP ARL ARLP016
ARLP016 Propagation de K7RA

Solar activity weakened over the current reporting period (April
11-17), and geomagnetic conditions were stable as well.  The
predicted geomagnetic storm did not happen last weekend, with both
the planetary and mid-latitude A index only rising to 10 on Sunday
April 14 in response to a glancing blow from a CME.

Average daily sunspot numbers declined nearly 25 points to 113.3,
and average daily solar flux was down over 17 points to 121.7.

Predicted flux values for the near term are 95 on April 19, 90 on
April 20-23, 95 on April 24-25, 100 on April 26, 110 on April 27-28,
115 on April 29-30, 120 on May 1-2, 125 on May 3-6, 120 on May 7-8,
and 115 on May 9-12.

Predicted planetary A index is 5 on April 19-22, 12 on April 23-25,
15 on April 26, 5 on April 27 to May 4, 8 on May 5, 5 on May 6-11,
and 8 on May 12.

F.K. Janda, OK1HH of the Czech Propagation Interest Group predicts
the geomagnetic field will be quiet to unsettled April 19, quiet
April 20, mostly quiet April 21, quiet to unsettled April 22, quiet
to active April 23, active to disturbed April 24, quiet to active
April 25, active to disturbed April 26, quiet to unsettled April
27-28, mostly quiet April 29-30, quiet May 1-4, mostly quiet May 5,
quiet May 6-7, mostly quiet May 8, quiet May 9, mostly quiet May 10,
quiet to unsettled May 11-12, and mostly quiet May 13.

Carl Luetzelschwab, K9LA maintains a great website devoted to
propagation information, but it moved recently to a new domain.
Check http://k9la.us/.

Paul Drahn, KD7HB of Crooked River Ranch in Central Oregon wrote: I
must take exception to your comment about 'great news for HF
propagation.'  It's very difficult for local evening nets on 75
meters. I am active on the Oregon Emergency Net on 3980 from 6pm to
7pm. Just prior to our net, the Tennessee phone net operates on the
same frequency. Afterward, several Tennessee hams use the frequency
as a local rag chew net. At times, like the last two evenings, they
are stronger in Oregon than many of the local check-in stations.
Last night there were at least three conversations going on from
Tennessee, all on 3980. They could not hear each other, and could
not hear the OEN.

We expect this interference in the Winter, but only is a problem at
other times when the propagation allows it. Fortunately the folks in
Tennessee go to bed early!

As we move later in the Spring and toward Summer, the signals should
be weaker around net time. It might help if the folks in Tennessee
used NVIS type antennas for local coverage, as they don't have a low
angle of radiation. There are several pages that describe the NVIS,
or Near Vertical Incident Skywave antenna, such as
http://www.hamuniverse.com/nvisbeam.html or
http://www.w0ipl.net/ECom/NVIS/nvis.htm or
https://www.txarmymars.org/downloads/NVIS-Antenna-Theory-and-Design.pdf.

If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers,
email the author at, k...@arrl.net.

For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL
Technical Information Service web page at,
http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals. For an explanation of the
numbers used in this bulletin, see
http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere. An archive of past
propagation bulletins is at
http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation. More good
information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/.

Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve
overseas locations are at http://arrl.org/propagation.

Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins.

Sunspot numbers for April 11 through 17 were 121, 128, 148, 111, 99,
97, and 89, with a mean of 113.3. 10.7 cm flux was 137.1, 137.9,
125.1, 116.8, 113.3, 113.3, and 108.1, with a mean of 121.7.
Estimated planetary A indices were 5, 5, 6, 10, 5, 3, and 3, with a
mean of 5.3. Estimated mid-latitude A indices were 4, 4, 6, 10, 6,
2, and 2, with a mean of 4.9.

/EX



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[DX-NEWS] ARLP016 Propagation de K7RA

2012-04-20 Thread jjreisert
SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP016
ARLP016 Propagation de K7RA

ZCZC AP16
QST de W1AW  
Propagation Forecast Bulletin 16  ARLP016
From Tad Cook, K7RA
Seattle, WA  April 20, 2012
To all radio amateurs 

SB PROP ARL ARLP016
ARLP016 Propagation de K7RA

As promised in the ARRL Letter, this week's bulletin features a
report on recent solar activity and solar cycle progression from
Carl Leuetzelschwab, K9LA.

Solar flux and sunspot numbers reached a short term low on April
8-11, but now are rising again.  For the past week, April 12-18,
average daily sunspot numbers more than doubled compared to the
previous seven days, rising more than 39 points to 71.7.  Average
daily solar flux increased from 95.9 to 105.1.  On April 19, the day
following this period, the daily sunspot number rose dramatically
from 96 to 122, and so did solar flux values, from 121.5 to 137.8

Since April 10, eleven new sunspot groups emerged.  One each on
April 10-13, two on April 14, one on April 16 two on April 17 and
one each on April 18-19.

Predicted Solar Flux for April 20-25 is 135, followed by 130 on
April 26-27, 105 on April 28, 100 on April 29-30, 95 on May 1-9,
then rising to 100 on May 10-12 and 105 on May 13-18 and 110 on May
19-22.

Predicted planetary A index is 8, 5, 5, 7, 12, and 12 on April
20-25, 5 on April 26-29, 8 on April 30, 5 on May 1-7, and 8, 12, 15
and 10 on May 8-11, and 5 on May 12-20.

Alaska Dispatch ran an article with video on the solar flare
mentioned in K9LA's report below.  See it at
http://www.alaskadispatch.com/video/video-massive-eruption-suns-surface.

German ham Toni Umlandt, DD3EO mentioned another resource in
response to our mention in last week's bulletin ARLP015 of a public
remotely controlled SDR radio receiver in Walla Walla, Washington
that anyone can use via the internet.  He said to check
http://www.websdr.org/.  This lists 36 SDR receivers, and I think
all of them can be used simultaneously by multiple users.

K9LA's report:

Monday, April 16 gave us moderate solar activity, which was due to
an M1.7 X-ray flare from Region 1458 around 1745 UTC.  But since
then, solar activity has continued at low levels.  The daily 10.7 cm
solar flux is expected to slightly increase to around 120 during the
next several days.  There is an extremely small chance of X-Class
flares (1%) and a somewhat greater chance of M-Class flares (around
15%).

With solar activity continuing at low levels, the ascent of Cycle 24
noticeably slowed in the past couple months.  For example, after a
monthly mean 10.7 cm solar flux peak in November 2011 of 153, the
next three months saw ever-decreasing monthly means -- 141, 133, and
107 for December, January, and February, respectively.  March (last
month) recovered a bit with a monthly mean of 115, but April so far
appears to be headed for another low monthly mean (through April 18,
the 10.7 cm solar flux monthly mean is hovering around 102).  As a
side note, these up-and-downs in the monthly mean solar flux are
typical of a solar cycle.

But these recent low monthly means have taken their toll on the
smoothed 10.7 cm solar flux.  Since early 2009, the smoothed 10.7 cm
solar flux rose nicely.  The recent low monthly means have resulted
in the smoothed value pretty much leveling off in the past two
months at around 118.  This smoothed value is borderline for good
worldwide 10-Meter openings (especially East-West), so 10-Meters
will be at the mercy of the day-to-day variation of the F2 region.

Does this mean we've reached Cycle 24's peak?  Not necessarily --
other Cycles have had similar slow-downs, but then the solar
activity picked up again in terms of the monthly means to continue
the increase of the smoothed value.  The monthly means during the
next several months will be interesting to observe, and may give us
an early clue as to how high Cycle 24 will ultimately go.

Regardless of what happens with Cycle 24, the time is now to get on
the higher bands (especially 12-Meters and 10-Meters) to take
advantage of F2 region propagation.  If Cycle 24 performs to the
nominal prediction from the Marshall Space Flight Center
(http://solarscience.msfc.nasa.gov/predict.shtml), we're pretty much
there -- and we're not likely to have much mid latitude 50 MHz F2
propagation during this solar cycle (but watch for sporadic E links
to the equatorial ionosphere for Trans-Equatorial Propagation).  If
Cycle 24 performs more to the nominal prediction of the
International Space Environment Service
(http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/SolarCycle/), then we should have somewhat
better propagation on the higher bands in the next year or so.

If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers,
email the author at, k...@arrl.net.

For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL
Technical Information Service at
http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals.  For an explanation of
the numbers used in this bulletin, see
http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere.  An archive of
past propagation 

[DX-NEWS] ARLP016 Propagation de K7RA

2011-04-21 Thread jjreisert
SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP016
ARLP016 Propagation de K7RA

ZCZC AP16
QST de W1AW  
Propagation Forecast Bulletin 16  ARLP016
From Tad Cook, K7RA
Seattle, WA  April 21, 2011
To all radio amateurs 

SB PROP ARL ARLP016
ARLP016 Propagation de K7RA

The bulletin is out a day early due to the Good Friday holiday
observed tomorrow.

Average daily sunspot numbers and solar flux for the week were both
higher - sunspot numbers up over three points to 93.1 - and solar
flux up by eight points to 117.2.  Geomagnetic activity was a bit
lower, with April 20 the most active day after a coronal hole on the
Sun spewed a solar wind at high speed.  The Australian government
gave an alert one day prior.  You can subscribe to those emailed
warnings at http://www.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-geo-warning.
If you are in Australia, the same service offers an HF radio
propagation course. See
http://www.ips.gov.au/Products_and_Services/2/2 for details.

The same Australian service has predicted monthly smoothed sunspot
numbers and solar flux at http://www.ips.gov.au/Solar/1/6 and it
looks like they predict the peak of Cycle 24 exactly two years from
now in April 2013.

Currently there are four sunspot groups visible, and today could see
a geo-magnetic disturbance from a slow-moving coronal mass ejection.

The latest forecast from NOAA/USAF shows solar flux at 115 for April
21-24, 110 for April 25-29 and 115 again on April 30 through May 3.
Predicted planetary A index is 10 and 8 for April 21-22 and 5 on
April 23-27.  On April 28-30 the predicted planetary A index is 7,
15 and 12.

The May issue of WorldRadio Online is now available at
http://worldradiomagazine.com. Check out the propagation column by
K9LA on page 22, which this month concerns an unusual divergence
during the recent solar cycle when correlation between solar flux
and sunspot numbers seemed to decrease.

Mark Lunday, WD4ELG of Greensboro, North Carolina is excited about
all the recent solar activity and associated propagation.  Mark
says, I never thought it would happen, but the sunspots are back!

Mark notes that 10 meters is open worldwide during the day and 20
meters is open all day and night to somewhere in the world.  He
sends lists of DX worked from all over, all with simple antennas.
Check his blog at http://wd4elg.blogspot.com.

Richard Kautz, KC2HZW of Pelham, New York is looking forward to a
good sporadic-E and F-layer propagation season on 6 meters.  He
says, Really been enjoying the renewed sunspot activity the last
two months. This week conditions on 15 meters have been excellent.
Friday April 15 I worked HS0ZIN at 1523 with 59+ signals in both
directions. Saturday I worked VU2PAI at 1920 again with 59 signals
in both directions. Also worked JE1LET at 2330. Listened to KL7LF
for a while working a pile-up with a great 59 signal. I modeled many
of the contacts I made the last few days on W6ELPROP and while the
program predicted many of the contacts were possible, in none of the
cases did the predictions show signal strengths anywhere near what I
experienced. I am not complaining -- it been about 8 years since I
worked into South East Asia on the higher bands and it was a real
thrill.

Oleh Kernytskyy, KD7WPJ of Saint George, Utah has been operating QRP
CW from mountain peaks out west.  He writes, On April 16/17, 2011 I
activated Grandeur Peak (SOTA -W7/NU-065) - 2530 m. I was able to
make contacts with JE2RMH and 5N7M on 21 MHz with 10 w and simple
dipole. I also heard a lot of stations from Brazil on 28 MHz, but
they all worked in the contest.

Jeff, N8II of West Virginia writes on April 16, The SFI is 129 and
the K is 1 today and you could tell it. But first back to Monday the
11th when I was lucky enough to be off from work. On 15 meters CW,
between 0018 and 0031Z BA1KW, HS0ZBS, and XV2W were logged, great DX
for us on the East Coast. Then as early as 1249Z IS0GQX was 599 on
12 meters CW. P29NI running a big IOTA EU pile-up was easily worked
on 17 meters at 1236Z and JJ0NCC answered a CQ at 1309.

Then up on 15 meters YB0NFL was worked on SSB 59 at 1325 (quite
early) along with UA0SR, UA9QM, and YB9/DJ7XJ on 15 CW. But the
biggest surprise of the day was E21EJC at 1418, HS0ZBS, and 9M2TO on
12 meters CW! Then, I was treated to more over the pole DX on 15
meters, VU2PAI and V85TL. HS0AC was logged on 17 meters CW at 1525,
and found Kob, E21EJC there 10 minutes later. It doesn't get much
better than that here unless 10 meters opens polar which is rare.
Today the 16th started with 14 Russians from all over Asia answering
my CQ from 0033 thru 0115 along with HB9, EA5, BD0AH, and UN7PBW on
20M CW.

At 1305Z XV2RZ was worked on 17 meters CW and P29VLR was running a
large EU pile-up and was about S3-4 here. At 1325, 12 meters was
open well to EU at 1325Z with OL2011VP 599 on 12 CW, but despite a
good EU opening with lots of Germans logged, the band never opened
to the Far East as on Monday. 10 meters started to open to EU at
1423Z with 4O3A logged 599+ 15dB, but 

[DX-NEWS] ARLP016 Propagation de K7RA

2010-04-23 Thread jjreisert
SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP016
ARLP016 Propagation de K7RA

ZCZC AP16
QST de W1AW  
Propagation Forecast Bulletin 16  ARLP016
From Tad Cook, K7RA
Seattle, WA  April 23, 2010
To all radio amateurs 

SB PROP ARL ARLP016
ARLP016 Propagation de K7RA

A Sun with no sunspots!  The quiet Sun returned -- and through
Thursday, April 22 there have been eight days straight with no
sunspots.

A new spot began to emerge on Wednesday, but it quickly faded.  For
the next ten days NOAA/USAF predict solar flux at 78, 78, 80, 80,
80, 78, 76, 80, 80 and 80.  Solar flux values above 80 aren't
predicted until May 20-23, with a value of 85, but that is too far
into the future to predict accurately.  They also predict the return
of sunspot group 1061 on April 23-25.  That sunspot group was
previously visible on April 5-10.

Planetary A index for April 23 through May 2 is predicted to be 8,
6, 5, 5, 5, 8, 8, 5, 5 and 5.  Geophysical Institute Prague predicts
quiet to unsettled conditions for April 23, then quiet April 24-26,
quiet to unsettled April 27, and back to quiet for April 28-29.

Carl Luetzelschwab, K9LA has a new propagation column about sunspot
Cycle 24 in the current issue of WorldRadio online at
http://www.worldradiomagazine.com.  Carl's columns are always
worthwhile, and a new issue of WorldRadio appears on the twentieth
day of each month.

We've seen some reports of 10 meter activity over the past couple of
weeks.  Julio Medina, NP3CW of Puerto Rico reports that on April 9
he saw an opening to the Pacific on 10 meters.  He writes, H44MS at
2122z SSB, KH6CE Henry, ZL4IV Rick at 2159z, HR1RJF, KC5JAR from TX,
and LU5FCI at 2255z.  Around the start of the month he had 6 meter
openings to South America.

Pat Dyer, WA5IYX sent in a report generated by DX Sherlock, which
automatically collects propagation data from a network of WSPR
stations.  WSPR stands for Weak Signal Propagation Reporter.  Pat
said that on April 12, 10 meters opened up to the Pacific, which is
normal after a geomagnetic storm.  You can go to
http://www.vhfdx.net/spots/index.php to generate your own
propagation snapshots, including maps.

Peter Sils, KD0AA of Nixa, Missouri wrote that there was a
wonderful 10 Meter opening on Wednesday, April 14 at 8:30 PM CDT. I
was alerted by Mark, K0ABC via Nixa ARC email that there was a
Tahiti station on. I proceeded to work FO8RZ, ZL1BYZ and VK7ZE on a
NB6ZEP antenna up 30' with 100 watts. What a wonderful opening it
was!

Bill Alsup, N6XMW of San Francisco wrote, I read years ago that
there was a correlation between how closely the planets aligned and
the sunspot cycle, the idea being that the more intense the
gravitational pull on the Sun, the more sunspots would appear.
Evidently, they more or less align every 11 yrs. I have never seen
any other reference to that concept.

That was by J.H. Nelson, a forecaster at RCA who wrote about it in
the 1950s.  The reason you never heard of it since the 1970s
(although astrologers like it) is that it didn't work, and it proved
to be no better than chance at predicting anything.

What Nelson worked out was a system in which certain planetary
alignments were thought to put some sort of tidal influence on the
Sun, and that there were more solar flares at those times, causing
HF radio disruption.  He kept records for many years, and worked out
a system that when these alignments occurred, there was a three-day
period in which these events were likely to occur.  So if the
alignment is on Wednesday, the disruption could occur Tuesday
through Thursday.

In the early 1980s the Skeptical Inquirer published an article in
which they went over his records, and counted the number of
occurrences per year.  Then they randomly distributed the same
number of dates over each calendar year, and used the three-day
rule.  The correlation was no worse than Nelson's predictions.

So it had zero prediction value, because you could just as easily
toss dice.  A stopped clock is correct twice per day.  Check this
article at http://www.rudolfhsmit.nl/d-arti2.htm which mentions
Nelson's work.  It also talks about false correlations.  I dug up an
interesting thread on Nelson at http://www.eham.net/articles/8828,
and the best comments are by N3AIU, who also is a reader of our
propagation bulletin.

Several people wrote in to comment about volcano ash and
propagation, and this is from Tom Segalstad, LA4LN of Oslo, Norway.

Some countries have allowed radio amateurs to use the 70 MHz (4 m)
band. A number of contacts are being made every day on this band
between radio amateurs in some European countries via meteor scatter
using the K1JT digital modes JT6M and FSK441.  On 14 April this year
the Icelandic volcano Eyjafjallajokull started an explosive
eruption, which produced a high column of volcanic ash. With
westerly winds, the ash cloud was blown towards Europe in the
stratosphere.

In the NRAU (Nordic Radio Amateur Union) Nordic Activity Contest on
70 MHz Thursday 15 April we experienced fairly poor 

[DX-NEWS] ARLP016 Propagation de K7RA

2008-04-11 Thread jjreisert
SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP016
ARLP016 Propagation de K7RA

ZCZC AP16
QST de W1AW  
Propagation Forecast Bulletin 16  ARLP016
From Tad Cook, K7RA
Seattle, WA  April 11, 2008
To all radio amateurs 

SB PROP ARL ARLP016
ARLP016 Propagation de K7RA

No sunspots for seven days, as of Thursday, April 10.  We may see
sunspots return around April 21-28.  This is based on recent
activity rotating out of view around the Sun and (we hope)
reappearing later this month.

If you look at,
http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/ftpdir/forecasts/45DF/041045DF.txt, which
was Thursday's forecast, you see predicted solar flux remaining at
70 until April 20, when it reaches 75, then 80 on April 21.  The
predicted higher solar flux should correlate with the return of
sunspots.  This prediction is updated daily after 2100z.  After
2100z April 11 you can see the new prediction by changing
041045DF.txt at the end of the URL to 041145DF.txt.  You can also go
to, http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/ftpmenu/forecasts/45DF.html to select a
daily forecast from the list, but frequently there is a delay before
the latest forecast is listed, and you can see it much sooner by
changing the date in the URL as shown above.

From that same forecast you can see quiet geomagnetic conditions
predicted until April 22-24.  Geophysical Institute Prague predicts
quiet to unsettled conditions April 11, quiet April 12-13, quiet to
unsettled April 14, unsettled April 15, quiet to unsettled April 16,
and back to quiet on April 17.

Rob Steenburgh, KA8JBY sent some links useful for detecting sunspots
on the Sun's far side, using helioseismography.  See,
http://gong.nso.edu/data/farside/ and,
http://soi.stanford.edu/data/full_farside/ for images.  Note that
you can also animate these to see recent activity in motion.  The
technique is described at,
http://soi.stanford.edu/press/farside_Feb2006/web/index.html.

In Propagation Forecast Bulletin ARLP007 (see
http://www.arrl.org/w1aw/prop/2008-arlp007.html) in mid-February, we
mentioned an article in a daily business publication which spoke of
an upcoming Maunder Minimum.  In the article were fabricated quotes
from Dr. Kenneth Tapping, who works at the observatory in British
Columbia where we get our daily solar flux data.

I was surprised to see this same article in the monthly VHF column
in CQ Magazine recently.  But I saw it on March 31, and it was the
April issue.  I understand that this was really supposed to be some
sort of April Fools' jest, but it went awry, probably due to
miscommunication with the editor, who was already running a
traditional whimsical April item.  Once edited, it lost the April 1
flavor.

Of course there is a long tradition in amateur radio publishing
regarding strange and fantastic articles in the April issue.
Sometimes it is difficult to tell.  For instance, as a 12-year old
Novice I was unaware of this tradition, and was very interested to
read in an April QST about some new paint that could be applied to
towers.  It was supposed to shift reflected light outside the
visible spectrum, and therefore render the structure invisible.
Well, nearly so.  It should still block light from passing through
it, but the article claimed the effect was some kind of fuzzy
non-image, a sort of visual void of uncertain nature.

I didn't realize that this was a joke until reading the Letters
section in the May issue.  Imaginative readers had a lot of fun with
this, and one woman wrote that her ham husband was trying out the
paint on a recent Saturday, and she hadn't seen him since.

Mike Schatzberg, W2AJI of Tryon, North Carolina wrote to report
conditions during the recent period when we actually had daily
sunspot activity.  He was mentioned previously in this bulletin, in
2006 in Propagation Forecast Bulletin ARLP047 (see
http://www.arrl.org/w1aw/prop/2006-arlp047.html).  He wrote again
about excellent conditions on 20 meters.

On April 4 Mike wrote, I had to let you know about the unusual and
steady strong signals I have been working on 20 meters the past 3
days.  East coast propagation to the Far East and Indonesia have
been extraordinary.  Low power stations, less than 100 watts, and
with wire antennas abound, and I am able to read them with S5 to S9
signal strengths on my Orion II transceiver.

He continues, Two Americans, HS0ZCX, Chuck, with only 100 watts,
and a wire beam antenna, and XU7ACY (NO2R), Peter, have been booming
into the East Coast with S9 signals.  They are heard during the
morning hours at about 13:00 Zulu, along with Ralph, HS0ZSC who is
also very strong.  YB0BCU, Yan, is always S9 from Jakarta during the
same time period.

Mike goes on to say, The evening hours have also been a delight
into the Orient.  Propagation remains good into Japan for much of
the night.  But many lower power stations can also be worked on SSB,
from both China and Taiwan.  Last night, between 01:00 and 03:00
Zulu, once you steer around the many calling Asian Siberian
stations, Japan, China, and Taiwan were extremely active.  BD2QAF,