[DX-NEWS] ARLP043 Propagation de K7RA
SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP043 ARLP043 Propagation de K7RA ZCZC AP43 QST de W1AW Propagation Forecast Bulletin 43 ARLP043 >From Tad Cook, K7RA Seattle, WA October 25, 2013 To all radio amateurs SB PROP ARL ARLP043 ARLP043 Propagation de K7RA Solar activity is increasing, suggesting that perhaps now in Fall 2013 we are in the midst of a second peak in Cycle 24. We hope it sustains. Sunspot numbers this week ran up all the way to 228, a level not seen in the past decade since October 27 through November 1, 2003 when the daily sunspot numbers were 238, 230, 330, 293, 266 and 277. Prior to that, on January 11, 2003 the daily sunspot number was 238. Average daily sunspot numbers increased over 35 points to 162 (when compared to the previous seven day period, October 10-16). Average daily solar flux increased over 13 points to 139.6. Geomagnetic indices indicate a quiet geomagnetic field. Predicted solar flux this week is 165 on October 25-27, then 160, 155, 145, 135, 130, and 115 on October 28 through November 2, 120 on November 3-5, 125 on November 6-10, 130 on November 11, 135 on November 12-13, then 130, 120, 115 and 120 on November 14-17, and 115 on November 18-20. Based on recurrence due to solar rotation, in 45 days flux values are predicted at 130. Predicted planetary A index is 16, 12, 8 and 20 on October 25-28, 8 on October 29-30, 5 on October 31 through November 9, then 12, 15, 10 and 8 on November 10-13, 5 on November 14-16, then 10 and 8 on November 17-18. After November 18 everything looks very quiet (A index of 5) until 44-45 days out, when the prediction shows A index values of 12 and 15 on December 7-8. Those predictions come from the United States Air Force Space Weather Squadron, and are made available to the public via NOAA. See http://www.afweather.af.mil/units/spaceweatheroperations.asp. This set of PDF slides gives a hint at some of the tools they use: http://ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/RoR_WWW/workshops/2012/Thursday_pdf/smithro_ccmc2012.pdf. As usual, OK1HH gives us his own predictions for geomagnetic activity. He sees quiet to active geomagnetic conditions on October 25, quiet to unsettled October 26, mostly quiet October 27, quiet to active October 28-29, mostly quiet October 30, quiet October 31 through November 3, mostly quiet November 4, quiet to active November 5, quiet to unsettled November 6, mostly quiet November 7, quiet to active November 8-12, quiet to unsettled November 13, quiet on November 14-19, and mostly quiet November 20. He does not expect any days with active to disturbed conditions. Pete Markavage, WA2CWA of Sayreville, New Jersey reports great conditions on 10 meters this week, but using AM and FM instead of CW or SSB. Pete wrote, "Ten meters has been hot all week. During the late morning hours of October 22 I worked about 25 stations, all on AM, in a number of Eastern and Western European countries. AM power was about 90 watts into a 4 element tri-bander. In the late afternoon I worked a Japanese station on 10 FM direct with a 40 watt rig. On October 24 around 6:45 PM EDT, finally worked my first Japanese station on 10 AM. 6 meters has been dismal for openings here in the East, but 10 meter activity is making up for it." A week ago we got this from Jeff Hartley, N8II in West Virginia, but not in time for last week's bulletin: "10 meter and 12 meter propagation has been up and down with the degree of disturbed conditions, but almost every day the Middle East and Southern EU are booming in on 10 meters here. "I listened Wednesday October 16 until 1430Z and 10 never opened well to Europe, but that evening about 75 minutes past sunset I was able to work a weak JA on 10 meter CW, heard one more and worked another on 12 meter CW around 2400Z when the band seemed to be closing rapidly. Jimmy BX5AA (Taiwan) was S7 on 15 phone about 0010Z and easily logged, so it seemed the K index lowered as the day progressed. A day or two before 10 was wide open to Scandinavia around 1300-1400Z as well as several southern UA3 area stations worked on CW. Paths to Africa have been open very late into the day with TN2NS (Congo) loud at 2130Z on 10 phone and even later on 12 CW." Chip Margelli, K7JA wrote (also last week): "From what I was able to hear in a brief tune around 10 meters this morning (October 18), it is widely open to Europe, the Middle East, and Africa. Nice signals were observed from OD5ZZ and OD5NJ, several 4X/4Z stations, SU8JOTA (Boy Scout Jamboree On The Air in Egypt!), and generally signals from all of Europe were excellent. F6KHM (0.5 W) and MM3FYA (5 Watts to an attic dipole) were nice copy this morning (October 18) around 1600 UTC. "Last night, 18 October at 0158 UTC, I worked FK8CP on 50.110.6 MHz. Remi peaked about 579 and was in for at least a half hour. QSB was very heavy, almost like meteor scatter at times, but he also became steady, solid copy at times, too. "It's nice to have some prop! "I run 200 Watts to a 7-element LFA Yagi on 6 meters, and the same
[DX-NEWS] ARLP043 Propagation de K7RA
SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP043 ARLP043 Propagation de K7RA ZCZC AP44 QST de W1AW Propagation Forecast Bulletin 43 ARLP043 >From Tad Cook, K7RA Seattle, WA October 26, 2012 To all radio amateurs SB PROP ARL ARLP043 ARLP043 Propagation de K7RA Good conditions should prevail for the CQ World Wide SSB DX Contest this weekend. A chance of solar flares has greatly diminished in the past few days, and the latest forecast has planetary A index at a steady and quiet 5 for this weekend and beyond, through the first week in November. The average of the daily sunspot number for October 18 through 24 was 95.3, down 1.7 points from the previous seven days. Average daily solar flux rose 14.7 points to 143.9. Geomagnetic activity was quieter, with all daily planetary A index measures in the single-digits. The current prediction (from October 25) from NOAA and the U.S. Air Force shows solar flux at 125 on October 26, 120 on October 27, 115 on October 28-29, 110 on October 30-31, 105 on November 1-2, 100 on November 3, then 105 and 110 on October 4-5, 115 on October 6-7, 120 on November 8-11, 125 on November 12-13, then peaking at 145 on November 18 and dropping back to 100 on November 29-30. It then rises to 120 on December 5-8. This is a substantial downward revision from the previous day's forecast, (presented in the October 25 ARRL Letter) which showed solar flux at 135 on October 25-26, 130 on October 27-29, 125 on October 30 through November 1, and 100 on November 2-3. Now that I use the spreadsheet I prepared last week for tracking the USAF/NOAA flux forecast changes, I can see a history of the changing flux forecast for today. Until October 1 a flux value of 150 was predicted for October 26, then it changed to 135 on October 1-14, 130 on October 15-17, 125 on October 18-19, 120 on October 20, 130 on October 21, back to 150 this week on Monday, October 22, then 140 on Tuesday, 135 on Wednesday, and yesterday 125 on October 25. You can check the actual solar flux directly from the Penticton, British Columbia observatory today some time after 2000 UTC at ftp://ftp.geolab.nrcan.gc.ca/data/solar_flux/daily_flux_values/fluxtable.txt. Three readings per day are shown at 1700, 2000 and 2300 UTC, and the local noon (2000 UTC) value becomes the official one for the day. The way to read it is to scroll all the way to the bottom of the page, then in the first column is the date (expressed as 20121026) and the second is the time, 20 for 2000 UTC. Then for the observed solar flux, skip over to the fifth column to the right. You can see that yesterday the three values were 132.2, 130.0 and 129.2, and so 130 became the official flux value for October 25, as reported by NOAA at http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/ftpdir/indices/DSD.txt. Note the Penticton observatory resolves the number to one more decimal place than the report from NOAA, which rounds it to the nearest whole number. Predicted planetary A index is 5 on October 26 through November 7, 10, 20 and 15 on November 8-10, 5 on November 11-17, 10 on November 18-19, and 5 on November 20 through December 4. Our regular weekly geomagnetic forecast from F.K. Janda, OK1HH of the Czech Propagation Interest Group shows quiet conditions today, October 26, active to disturbed on October 27-28, quiet on October 29, mostly quiet October 30, quiet October 31 and November 1, mostly quiet November 2-3, quiet to active November 4, active to disturbed November 5, quiet to active November 6, mostly quiet November 7, quiet to unsettled November 8-9, quiet to active November 10, active to disturbed November 11, quiet to unsettled November 12-13, mostly quiet November 14, and quiet November 15-17. I received OK1HH's forecast at 1618 UTC on October 25, and I don't know how long prior to that it was created. Based on the fact that the likelihood of solar flares dropped dramatically in the past few days, I think we can discount the dire prediction (active to disturbed on October 27-28) for the contest weekend. I received an email from him at 1132 UTC today (October 26) and he thinks there still could be a disturbance, because a coronal hole is position right in the center of our view of the Sun. Sunspot group 1598 emitted a powerful X1 class solar flare on October 23, and it is rotating into the center of the solar disc today. But it shrunk in the past couple of days, and now the chance of flares has declined to just 5%, according to NOAA forecasters quoted at http://www.spaceweather.com. The shrinking of the formerly giant sunspot led to declining solar flux predictions and should ease any worries from the OK1HH prediction about this weekend. Check this video at http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kRagLBBqAYM showing sunspot group 1598 and the recent flare. Note the position of the sunspot projected the flare away from Earth. Also please ignore the videos previewed on the right side of the screen, which on my display show nonsense about the end of the world, grand planetary alignments, phantom ro
[DX-NEWS] ARLP043 Propagation de K7RA
SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP043 ARLP043 Propagation de K7RA ZCZC AP43 QST de W1AW Propagation Forecast Bulletin 43 ARLP043 >From Tad Cook, K7RA Seattle, WA October 28, 2011 To all radio amateurs SB PROP ARL ARLP043 ARLP043 Propagation de K7RA The day last week's Propagation Forecast Bulletin ARLP042 was released - Friday, October 21 - the daily sunspot number broke another record for cycle 24, when it rose to 207. You have to look back to November 26, 2003 when it was two points higher, 209, to find a number at least as high. But average daily sunspot number for the week was off by two points to 156.6, and average daily solar flux rose nearly 8 points to 151.8. How much higher will it go? Latest prediction shows sunspot activity peaking between February and July 2013, so there would seem to be plenty of opportunity for more daily sunspot readings of 207 and higher. Propagation on HF is quite exciting right now, with 10 meters opening up world wide daily. Based on recent conditions, working the CQ World Wide SSB DX Contest this weekend should offer plenty of fun. The latest predicted solar flux is 130 on October 28-31, 125 on November 1, 120 on November 2-5, then 125 and 130 for November 6-7 and 135 on November 8-10. Flux values for the near term are expected to peak at 165 on November 17-18. Predicted planetary A index is 7, 8, 10 and 10 on October 28-31 and 5 on October 31 through November 3, 8 on November 4-5, 5 on November 6-10 and 8 on November 11-13. Geophysical Institute Prague predicts quiet to unsettled conditions October 28, unsettled October 29, quiet to unsettled October 30 and quiet October 31 through November 3. A week ago (October 21) we received this update from Jeff Hartley, N8II of Shepherdstown, West Virginia, and in the first part he was referring to the sunspot number reaching 195 the day before: "Whoo hoo! Actually, things sounded a bit better the 2 days prior to last night. It's fairly commonplace at 2100Z to hear JAs and western EU at the same time on 12 meters! I had a solid QSO (S5) with BG4AEC (China) running 100 watts and a vertical on 10 meters SSB around 0015Z on Oct 19, past the peak of propagation. It's hard to get much done because the radio is too much of a draw! Unfortunately, the flooding in SE Asia seems to be keeping the rare countries (XV, XU, XZ) off the air. K3ZO is in Thailand but unable to operate much because HS0AC is being used for emergency communications. Cars are being parked on bridges and upper levels of garages to avoid the flooding! I hear 9M6XRO almost daily on either 12 or 10 meters." Speaking about the Draconids meteor shower, Jon Jones, N0JK of Wichita, Kansas wrote: "The Dracs would have been big news a year ago on VHF, but with all the F2 and TEP being worked on 6M this fall, it kind of puts the Draconids meteor shower on the back burner. One important 'lesson' from it is the astronomer's predictions of meteor shower outbursts are much better now and more accurate." Check this video of some solar events a few days ago: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vspRCZ8ISBI. If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers, email the author at, k...@arrl.net. For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL Technical Information Service web page at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals. For an explanation of the numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere. An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation. Find more good information and tutorials on propagation at http://myplace.frontier.com/~k9la/. Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve overseas locations are at http://arrl.org/propagation. Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins. Sunspot numbers for October 20 through 26 were 195, 207, 164, 128, 151, 147, and 104, with a mean of 156.6. 10.7 cm flux was 159.1, 167.8, 164.1, 155.5, 145.3, 138.8, and 132.2, with a mean of 151.8. Estimated planetary A indices were 5, 5, 3, 3, 23, 33, and 3, with a mean of 10.7. Estimated mid-latitude A indices were 3, 5, 2, 2, 16, 27, and 4 with a mean of 8.4. /EX --- To unsubscribe or subscribe to this list. Please send a message to imail...@njdxa.org In the message body put either unsubscribe dx-news or subscribe dx-news This is the DX-NEWS reflector sponsored by the NJDXA http://njdxa.org ---
[DX-NEWS] ARLP043 Propagation de K7RA
SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP043 ARLP043 Propagation de K7RA ZCZC AP43 QST de W1AW Propagation Forecast Bulletin 43 ARLP043 >From Tad Cook, K7RA Seattle, WA October 29, 2010 To all radio amateurs SB PROP ARL ARLP043 ARLP043 Propagation de K7RA The daily sunspot number went all the way to 74 this week (on Tuesday, October 26), but the average sunspot number was down over five points from the previous week, to 50.3. Several sunspot groups contributed this week. 1113 first appeared October 13, and was visible through October 26. 1115 emerged on October 15, and ran through October 27, its last day. 1117 emerged October 19, and was still growing yesterday, October 28. But 1117 is now approaching the western horizon, and is less and less geoeffective. The latest prediction is for solar flux of 85 through October 31, 82 on November 1 and 78 on November 2-5, then 80 on November 6-11, and rising after that. Predicted planetary A index for October 29 through November 1 is 5, 8, 5 and 7, then back to 5 on November 2-17. Geophysical Institute Prague sees quiet to unsettled conditions October 29-30, quiet October 31 through November 1, November 2-3 unsettled, and November 4 quiet to unsettled. Conditions shouldn't be bad this weekend for the CQ World Wide SSB DX Contest. Geomagnetic conditions should be relatively quiet, and we've had a little sunspot activity of late. But with sunspot group 1117 disappearing, unless a new one emerges, the sunspot number could drop back to zero. A look at the STEREO mission at http://stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov/ shows some possible activity just over the eastern horizon. There is also a very bright area, indicating magnetic activity straddling the unseen sector, which keeps getting smaller. Coverage should reach 96% around 1014 UTC on November 1, 97% at 0014 UTC on November 22, 98% coverage at 0014 UTC on December 14, and 99% at 1700 UTC on January 7, 2011. Check http://snipurl.com/1dauya for a dramatic Sun photo taken on October 20 by amateur astronomer Alan Friedman with a small telescope. Thanks to "Phil Plait's Bad Astronomy Blog" at http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/badastronomy/ for this. Rich Dowty, W7EET reminds us of the DX Sherlock maps for propagation on 28 MHz and higher. See http://www.vhfdx.info/spots/map.php and dial in your favorite band and region. Stu Phillips, K6TU had some comments regarding remarks I had in last week's Propagation Forecast Bulletin ARLP042 regarding WSPR real time data and how it might be used for evaluating propagation paths for other modes, such as SSB and CW. He writes, "For every WSPR spot (which you can see in the database at the WSPRnet.org website), there is a power level in dBm and a signal to noise ratio reported by the receiving station. "Although the antenna used by the transmitting station isn't known, you can get a pretty good idea of the path and what it would take in terms of increased ERP to successfully conclude either a CW or a SSB contact. I've also found pretty good correlation between propagation predictions using VOACAP that when adjusted for bandwidth (WSPR calculates SNR assuming a 2.5 kHz effective bandwidth) and power levels, correspond pretty closely with the SNR levels reported by WSPR. "So pick you reference point - for example, if you need 12 dB SNR in a 200 Hz bandwidth to complete a CW contact, you can scale the WSPR report by adding 10 dB for the bandwidth delta and then scale appropriately for power/ERP delta. Most WSPR transmissions on the HF bands are 5 watts or less - so even a "standard" ham transmitter at the 100 watt level is a further uplift of 13 dB even without ERP boost from a decent antenna." We'll have more information next week from K6TU regarding WSPR and propagation. If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers, email the author at, k...@arrl.net. For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL Technical Information Service web page at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals. For an explanation of the numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere. An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation. Find more good information and tutorials on propagation at http://mysite.ncnetwork.net/k9la/index.html. Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve overseas locations are at http://arrl.org/propagation. Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins. Sunspot numbers for October 21 through 27 were 34, 34, 43, 57, 57, 74, and 53, with a mean of 50.3. 10.7 cm flux was 83.5, 82.2, 84.3, 82.1, 86.2, 86.1 and 87.6 with a mean of 84.6. Estimated planetary A indices were 3, 6, 23, 14, 6, 8 and 4 with a mean of 9.1. Estimated mid-latitude A indices were 1, 4, 16, 10, 4, 6 and 3 with a mean of 6.3. /EX --- To unsubscribe or subscribe
[DX-NEWS] ARLP043 Propagation de K7RA
SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP043 ARLP043 Propagation de K7RA ZCZC AP43 QST de W1AW Propagation Forecast Bulletin 43 ARLP043 >From Tad Cook, K7RA Seattle, WA October 23, 2009 To all radio amateurs SB PROP ARL ARLP043 ARLP043 Propagation de K7RA A tiny cycle 24 sunspot group numbered 1028 emerged briefly on Tuesday, October 20, then was gone. This is another brief phantom sunspot, teasing us with hints of the expected increase in activity that never seems to manifest. Of course the silver lining in the low solar activity is low geomagnetic activity. While folks in Alaska miss dramatic aurora, HF hams in the northern latitudes can enjoy the bands without all the disruption that comes with geomagnetic storms. A couple of coronal holes are spewing enough plasma to activate some aurora, but remember that most of the photos you see of beautiful displays in the sky are actually very long exposures taken from a rock-steady tripod mount. Many times the unaided eye cannot perceive the more dramatic details. As a result of solar wind from coronal holes, geomagnetic indices rose yesterday, on Thursday, with planetary A index at 14, mid-latitude A index as measured in Virginia at 12, and the College A index at Fairbanks, Alaska way up to 25. The College A index has been quiet for a long time, and the last time the index was nearly this high was on August 30, 2009 at 24. Prior College A index readings higher than Thursday's were July 22, 2009 at 27, February 4, 2009 at 36, December 6, 2008 at 26, and November 8, 2008 at 30. You can look back at daily geomagnetic and solar indices from 1994 to the present at http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/ftpmenu/indices/old_indices.html. In fact, it is instructive when bemoaning the present lack of solar activity to reflect on times when there was so much geomagnetic activity, that HF propagation was difficult. At http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/ftpdir/indices/old_indices/1994_DGD.txt see 1994 College and Planetary A index numbers, and how there were extended periods of heightened activity. In fact, you can see stretches for weeks at a time when there are only spotty records of the College A and K index, and I seem to recall that during these times their instruments were knocked out of service by energy from geomagnetic storms concentrated in polar regions. The activity on Thursday was not predicted by USAF and NOAA in their daily 45-day forecast at http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/ftpmenu/forecasts/45DF.html. In the days prior to Thursday (check October 20 and 21) they were still expecting a Planetary A index of 5 for Thursday. Then in the October 22 prediction they show a Planetary A index of 8 for October 23-25, the weekend for the CQ World Wide SSB DX Contest. Geophysical Institute Prague has a little more detailed forecast for the contest weekend. They expect quiet conditions for October 23, quiet to unsettled October 24, unsettled on October 25, and back to quiet for October 26-29. OK1HH of the Czech Propagation Interest Group expects a bit higher activity, with quiet conditions for October 23, and unsettled to active geomagnetic conditions for October 24-25. Scott Craig, WA4TTK has an updated data file for his Solar Data Plotting Utility. This is useful if you are not yet running the program and collecting the data. The data can be updated semi-automatically each week from this bulletin, and manually as well. The new data file has daily solar flux and sunspot numbers from January 1, 1989 through October 7, 2009. Download it for free at http://www.craigcentral.com/sol.asp. This is a good way to visually realize the difference between the previous solar minimum and this extended quiet period we are in. Brian Webb, KD6NRP of Ventura County, California notes that even with no sunspot activity, using low power and a simple antenna he hears and works many stations overseas on 17 meters. On October 19 at 1556z he worked PA3HP on PSK on 17 meters, after answering his CQ. Brian's antenna was a horizontal delta loop, about 50 feet on each side, and fed with 300 ohm twinlead and 100 watts. I noted that between his location and the Netherlands on that date there was a good chance of an opening from 1600-1730z, according to W6ELprop. Ed Stokes, W1KOK of Randolph Center, Vermont asks if there is a W6ELprop version for Macintosh. No, there isn't, although Ed says he would like to port it to Mac. In the 2008 ARLP049 (http://www.arrl.org/w1aw/prop/2008-arlp049.html) we answered a similar question, and were pointed toward DX Toolbox at http://www.blackcatsystems.com/software/dxtoolbox.html, and also a site at http://www.machamradio.com/software/software.html for Macintosh ham radio software. This week an interesting piece about sluggish flow inside the sun appeared, authored by two scientists on the GONG project. Read it at http://spie.org/x37587.xml?highlight=x2418&ArticleID=x37587. Carl Luetzelschwab, K9LA, has another monthly column on propagation in the latest November issue of the now on
[DX-NEWS] ARLP043 Propagation de K7RA
SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP043 ARLP043 Propagation de K7RA ZCZC AP43 QST de W1AW Propagation Forecast Bulletin 43 ARLP043 >From Tad Cook, K7RA Seattle, WA October 17, 2008 To all radio amateurs SB PROP ARL ARLP043 ARLP043 Propagation de K7RA Finally, we are seeing Cycle 24 sunspots that don't emerge one day, and evaporate the next. That's right -- sunspots, as in two or more. On Friday, October 10 sunspot 1005 emerged at high latitude over our Sun's eastern limb, and that day's sunspot number was 12. On the following day the sunspot number rose to 16, and a solar wind emerging from a coronal hole caused a geomagnetic storm. Planetary A index rose from a quiet 3 on Friday to 37, and the mid-latitude A index was 20. The 3-hour planetary K index reached a maximum of 7 that day, a high value for that scale. Since then conditions have quieted again. On Sunday, Monday and Tuesday -- as the spot progressed toward the center-north of the solar disk -- sunspot numbers were 16, 15 and 14 as the dark spot began to fade. On Wednesday the sunspot number faded another point to 13, but on Thursday, October 16, sunspot 1006 emerged, but this time in the southwest corner, about to rotate out of view. The sunspot number for Thursday jumped to 24. On Wednesday of this week a reading of activity on the side of the Sun facing away from Earth found another possible sunspot. This was detected using a method called helioseismic holography, which depends on pressure waves bouncing around our Sun's interior. For more detail, take a look at, http://solarscience.msfc.nasa.gov/Helioseismology.shtml. Also the site, http://solarphysics.livingreviews.org/open?pubNo=lrsp-2005-6&key=Hagedoorn19 54. Mike Donnelly, KG9M of Woodstock, Illinois wrote to ask, "What does 'unsettled conditions' really mean? Good for DX or not??? Same question for 'quiet,' too." Unsettled, active, and quiet refer to geomagnetic indices, the K index and the A index. We generally want those numbers to be low, or quiet, as absorption is lower and polar propagation paths work better. An exception would be VHF aurora propagation, when the numbers are high. The effects of geomagnetic activity are much greater when operating from the far north. Sam Vigil, WA6NGH of San Luis Obispo, California says that during the summer of 2005 he and his wife Eve, KF6NEV paddled 720 miles down the Teslin and Yukon rivers from near Whitehorse in Yukon Territory to Circle, Alaska. They brought a 40 meter QRP transceiver and a general coverage shortwave receiver on the trip, which ran from July 25 to August 28. Sam notes there were long stretches when he heard nothing at all on either radio. The latitude ranged from 60.7 degrees north to 65.8 degrees north. He is searching for archives of A and K index data for northern latitudes, and noticed that our bulletin -- which is archived at the ARRL web site -- only gives a mid-latitude and a planetary number. He is giving a talk about his trip at Pacificon (http://www.pacificon.org/) this weekend and is looking for historical data. I found it on http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/ftpdir/indices/old_indices/2005_DGD.txt, and noted that periods of high geomagnetic activity corresponded to periods when he heard no signals. The index to watch for far northern latitudes is the college A and K index, which is from a magnetometer at University of Alaska, which is at 68.68 degrees north. The observatory has a web page at, http://geomag.usgs.gov/observatories/college/. Peter Thulesen, OX3XR of Nuuk, Greenland (64 deg N, 51 deg W) wanted geomagnetic data that is appropriate for his high latitude, and I suggested recent data updated daily from, http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/ftpdir/indices/DGD.txt. This is the same source we use for the indexes at the end of our bulletin, but we don't list the Alaska college index here. If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers, email the author at, [EMAIL PROTECTED] For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL Technical Information Service web page at, http://www.arrl.org/tis/info/propagation.html. For a detailed explanation of the numbers used in this bulletin, see http://www.arrl.org/tis/info/k9la-prop.html. An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://www.arrl.org/w1aw/prop/. Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve overseas locations are at http://www.arrl.org/qst/propcharts/. Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of this bulletin are at http://www.arrl.org/w1aw.html#email. Sunspot numbers for October 9 through 15 were 0, 12, 16, 16, 15, 14, and 13 with a mean of 12.3. 10.7 cm flux was 68.7, 68.9, 70.8, 70.1, 70.9, 70.4, and 70.9 with a mean of 70.1. Estimated planetary A indices were 2, 3, 37, 13, 9, 4 and 8 with a mean of 10.9. Estimated mid-latitude A indices were 1, 2, 20, 10, 7, 3 and 7 with a mean of 7.1. /EX --- To unsubscribe or subscri
[DX-NEWS] ARLP043 Propagation de K7RA
SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP043 ARLP043 Propagation de K7RA ZCZC AP43 QST de W1AW Propagation Forecast Bulletin 43 ARLP043 >From Tad Cook, K7RA Seattle, WA October 19, 2007 To all radio amateurs SB PROP ARL ARLP043 ARLP043 Propagation de K7RA Our Sun is still blank. The past week has shown no sunspots, and we will probably see more of nothing. Geomagnetic conditions have been very quiet, which means lower absorption of HF radio signals and lower noise. But this will become more active in the near future due to a returning solar wind. The planetary A index for October 19-26 is predicted to be 15, 12, 8, 5, 8, 18, 20 and 25. Things should settle down during the CQ World Wide DX Phone Contest next weekend. Geophysical Institute Prague predicts unsettled conditions for October 19-21, quiet to unsettled October 22, quiet conditions October 23, and unsettled to active October 24-25. We continue to receive reports from surprised hams that are getting 15 and 10 meter propagation that they don't expect at the bottom of the solar cycle. Brian Edward, N2MF of Jamesville, New York worked 3B7C at 1218z on 10 meter CW on September 22. Brian wrote, "This strikes me as unusual because I'm quite north, in Syracuse NY. I haven't heard much on 10 meters in years. It was relatively early in our morning, 0818 am. Although Europe was posting them on the DX internet spots, no other stateside was in there. They were quite strong at this location, I worked them first call. I believe this was a single day occurrence, heard them shortly after on 12 meters, but unfortunately I'm lacking a good antenna on that band." One thing that definitely helped Brian were his antennas, which you can see on http://www.qrz.com/n2mf. He has two 7-element 10 meter Yagis, one aimed on Europe and the top one at 80 feet is rotatable. Rodney Vorndam, K9ROD of Rye, Colorado mentioned he hasn't heard any 15 meter openings in a while, but on October 13-14 he worked Spain, Honduras, Haiti and Virgin Islands on that band. Steve Doty, KA9OKH of Evansville, Indiana said over the past week, October 11-18, he has had strong signals from East Asia on the low end of 20 meter CW. Steve hasn't heard Asia in a long time, but even with this extended period of no sunspots the signals out of Japan and Korea were as high as 20 db over S9. Last week's Propagation Forecast Bulletin ARLP042 mentioned a problem a reader had running W6ELprop under Microsoft's Vista operating system. There is an easy fix. Our reader's problem was probably with a security feature in Vista, and the solution is to right-click the W6ELprop installation file W6ELPropInst270.exe from Windows Explorer, then select the Run as Administrator option. We also received a helpful tip from Rex Lint, K1HI of Merrimack, New Hampshire. Vista isn't compatible with the Help file in W6ELprop, which has an .hlp extension. To fix this, there is a free patch from Microsoft, described at, http://support.microsoft.com/kb/917607. We should mention Kangaroo Tabor Software, which produces several very useful propagation tools. These are shareware which is not totally free, but the trial versions don't cost anything, and are fully functional. Check their web site at, http://www.taborsoft.com. Jim Tabor, KU5S is the author, and he has several distinctive and quite useful propagation software tools available. If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers, email the author at, [EMAIL PROTECTED] For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL Technical Information Service web page at, http://www.arrl.org/tis/info/propagation.html. For a detailed explanation of the numbers used in this bulletin see, http://www.arrl.org/tis/info/k9la-prop.html. An archive of past propagation bulletins is at, http://www.arrl.org/w1aw/prop/. Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve overseas locations are at, http://www.arrl.org/qst/propcharts/. Sunspot numbers for October 11 through 17 were 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0 and 0 with a mean of 0. 10.7 cm flux was 68.8, 68.6, 67.6, 67.1, 67.2, 67.1, and 67.4 with a mean of 67.7. Estimated planetary A indices were 1, 4, 2, 5, 2, 2 and 1 with a mean of 2.4. Estimated mid-latitude A indices were 0, 3, 2, 3, 1, 1 and 0, with a mean of 1.4. /EX -- Archives http://www.mail-archive.com/dx-news@njdxa.org THE DXR is sponsored by the North Jersey DX Association. Please visit our website: http://www.njdxa.org/index.php scroll to bottom for subscribe/unsubscribe options --
[DX-NEWS] ARLP043 Propagation de K7RA
SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP043 ARLP043 Propagation de K7RA ZCZC AP43 QST de W1AW Propagation Forecast Bulletin 43 ARLP043 >From Tad Cook, K7RA Seattle, WA October 20, 2006 To all radio amateurs SB PROP ARL ARLP043 ARLP043 Propagation de K7RA Sunspot numbers this week were 0 on every day. In fact, 0 was the sunspot number for eight days in a row, from October 11 through 18. On October 19 a single sunspot appeared, sunspot 917, in the center of the solar disc as seen from Earth, and this resulted in a sunspot number of 14. Due to the way sunspot numbers are calculated, there are no sunspot numbers from 1 through 10, only 0 for the minimum and then 11 for the next number. Judging from numbers ten years ago at the last solar minimum, we should observe longer periods of no sunspots, several weeks in a row, or perhaps over a month. In late 1995 we began to see short stretches of time with no spots. Then there were 12 days in a row, February 3-14, 1996 that were spotless. We began to observe one to two week stretches with 0 spots, except for one or two days in the middle. May 18-21, 1996 had no spots, then the next two days recorded 11 and 12, then May 24-31 had no spots. In fall 1996 we saw a really long stretch, September 9 through October 24 1996, with only two days in that period with recorded sunspots. September 13 through October 20 had no spots at all. After this, the spotless days were less and less common, with some strings of 7-10 spotless days in early 1997. By the fall of 1997, things were jumping again. October 1996 had an average daily sunspot number of only 2.3, October 1997 was 33.5, October 1998 was 77, October 1999 was 167.7, October 2000 was 138.9, and the average daily sunspot number in October 2001 was 197.4. So far October 2006 has an average daily sunspot number of 13.1, so we have a bit to go before we see the typical bottom-of-the-cycle month of no sunspots. The predicted sunspot minimum is still about 6 months away. Just because there are no sunspots, does that mean HF radio is dead? No, in fact it is better for 160 and 80 meters. But even higher frequencies will have openings to somewhere, although not as frequently as during periods of higher sunspot activity. John Plenderleith, 9M6XRO of Eastern Malaysia wrote to say that last Friday October 13, the third day in a row with 0 sunspots, he worked OM3EY in the Slovak Republic on 12 meter CW, and they moved the QSO to 10 meters. Conditions weren't very good, but signals were copyable, and then, in John's own words, "Suddenly - bam - the band was wide open and in the next 2-1/2 hours I worked 283 stations from all over Europe, a few in the Middle East, J28JA and a solitary JA. For much of the time I had 18db attenuation in on my FT-1000MP and signals were still S9 on the meter - a solid wall of stations! The opening ended at 8:35 PM local time - whereas local sunset was at 6pm. It brought back memories of 1957/58 when I was an SWL and 10 meters was wide open every day!" 8:30 PM local time was 1235z. Local sunset was around 1000z. John continues, "Just goes to show, even at this point in the cycle, it pays to go on the bands and fill up those empty frequencies - you never know what might happen!" Rick Fleeter, K8VK of Reston, Virginia has been a ham since he was 9 years old, in 1963. He likes the quiet conditions that come with lower sunspot activity. He writes, "I've been a ham since the mid '60s so have survived several cycles now. I find low sunspot cycles the best times for radio work in HF. I'm not just talking about the top bands. There is not much difference between sunspot activity and simple every daytime solar excitation of the ionosphere. Except that at near 0 sunspots, the progression of propagation during the day is completely rhythmic with the daily clock, and predictable." Rick continues, "The longer wavelength bands are much quieter at night when the sun is quiet, and even with no sunspots, 20, 15, even 10 meter openings are quite regular during the day. Plus it seems like a less opaque ionosphere eliminates QRM from nearer stations (QRN as well does not propagate so well from nearby sources, which is most of it), so the DX which is there, is easier to hear." This weekend we could have more days with 0 sunspots, or at a maximum, sunspot numbers from 11-15. A solar wind stream is expected to cause active geomagnetic conditions today, October 20, with the October 20-23 planetary A index predicted at 20, 13, 8 and 5. Geophysical Institute Prague predicts declining geomagnetic activity, with active conditions on October 20, unsettled to active on October 21, unsettled October 22, quiet to unsettled October 23, unsettled October 24, and quiet conditions on October 25-26. Eric Hall, K9GY of Lansing, Illinois wrote to ask readers to participate in the Illinois QSO party and the Worked All Germany contest this weekend. Details are at http://www.darc.de/referate/dx/xedcgr.htm for the German activity and http://www.w9awe.org/
[DX-NEWS] ARLP043 Propagation de K7RA
SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP043 ARLP043 Propagation de K7RA ZCZC AP43 QST de W1AW Propagation Forecast Bulletin 43 ARLP043 >From Tad Cook, K7RA Seattle, WA October 14, 2005 To all radio amateurs SB PROP ARL ARLP043 ARLP043 Propagation de K7RA The fourth quarter of 2005 began nearly two weeks ago on October 1, but last week's bulletin failed to mention the average sunspot numbers for the quarter just ended. This is a normal quarterly exercise, as we hope to spot trends in the solar cycle. Looking at the past two weeks, the average daily sunspot numbers over the past week were up over 10 points to 21.7. Average daily solar flux rose, but also by a slight degree, only two and a half points to 78.4. >From the first quarter of 2003 through the third quarter of 2005, the average daily sunspot number was 120.3, 107.3, 110.2, 99.2, 72.9, 71.3, 69.3, 61, 46.1, 55.7 and 58. The average daily solar flux for the same period was 134.3, 124.2, 120.8, 137.4, 111.1, 99.5, 111, 104.8, 96.4, 93.1 and 93.6. We could almost convince ourselves that the cycle has already bottomed out if we look at quarterly sunspot numbers this year. Last year's quarterly sunspot numbers dropped steadily from 72.9 at the first quarter of 2004, to 71.3, 69.3 and 61. 2005 began with a big drop, to 46.1 in the first quarter, then rose to 55.7 and 58. Could this cycle really have hit bottom during the first quarter of 2005? The NOAA Space Environment Center Preliminary Report and Forecast for October 4 (on the web in PDF format at, http://www.sec.noaa.gov/weekly/pdf/prf1570.pdf) shows the same smoothed sunspot number history and prediction table on page 10 that it has shown for quite some time now. In this table, the sunspot cycle appears to reach minimum around December 2006 to January 2007. But could it have reached minimum two years earlier? Maybe we should compare the quarterly numbers from the last sunspot cycle bottom, which according to the graph above the page 10 table was in 1996. The quarterly average sunspot numbers from the fourth quarter of 1995 through the third quarter of 1997 were 21.3, 13.1, 13, 12.4, 14.2, 11.3, 25.4 and 37.2. We can see that the previous sunspot minimum was when the quarterly average numbers were between 11 and 13. This included some long periods of no sunspots at all, such as the five weeks in September and October 1996 when every day the sunspot number was 0. The average daily sunspot number from September 1 through October 31 1996 was only 2.6. So far this year the quarterly averages were between 46 and 58, a rather high bottom if it is one. We should probably just chalk this up to the normal variations throughout the solar cycle, which never looks like a smooth, predictable moving line unless data from many days is averaged. I think we should be very surprised if the fourth quarter of 2005 has an average daily sunspot number above 60. For the upcoming week, solar flux and sunspot values should remain about the same, which is low. The predicted planetary A index for Friday through Monday, October 14-17 is 10, 12, 10 and 5. According to Geophysical Institute Prague, October 18, 19 and 20 should be quiet, October 17 quiet to unsettled, unsettled conditions on October 14 and 16, and unsettled to active conditions this Saturday, October 15. Ever wonder why the planetary geomagnetic numbers are higher than the mid-latitude numbers? It turns out the planetary numbers are all measured at fairly high latitudes. Check the latitudes of the observatories that supply the data for the planetary K index (which is used to calculate the daily planetary A index) on the web at, http://www.spenvis.oma.be/spenvis/help/background/indices.html. The average latitude for observatories in the Northern Hemisphere is 55 degrees. For comparison, note that the United States/Canadian border is at 49 degrees from Manitoba to points west, and 55 degrees latitude is where Hudson Bay turns into James Bay at the northern edge of Ontario. Since geomagnetic disturbances are generally higher at high latitudes, no wonder the planetary geomagnetic indices read so high when activity is up. If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers, email the author at, [EMAIL PROTECTED] For more information concerning radio propagation and an explanation of the numbers used in this bulletin see the ARRL Technical Information Service propagation page at, http://www.arrl.org/tis/info/propagation.html. An archive of past bulletins is found at, http://www.arrl.org/w1aw/prop/. Sunspot numbers for October 6 through October 12 were 28, 31, 24, 16, 11, 25 and 17 with a mean of 21.7. 10.7 cm flux was 79.5, 78.8, 78.1, 78.9, 79.1, 77.6, and 76.8, with a mean of 78.4. Estimated planetary A indices were 4, 11, 22, 9, 10, 6 and 1 with a mean of 9. Estimated mid-latitude A indices were 2, 11, 16, 7, 7, 5 and 1, with a mean of 7. /EX -- Archives http://www.mail-archive.com/dx-news@nj
[DX-NEWS] ARLP043 Propagation de K7RA
SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP043 ARLP043 Propagation de K7RA ZCZC AP43 QST de W1AW Propagation Forecast Bulletin 43 ARLP043 >From Tad Cook, K7RA Seattle, WA October 22, 2004 To all radio amateurs SB PROP ARL ARLP043 ARLP043 Propagation de K7RA Solar activity made a comeback this week. Today's sun shows a string of spots all across the solar disk. Average daily sunspot numbers from last week to this week rose nearly 45 points, and solar flux was up over 6. This bulletin was written late Thursday night West Coast time (around 0700z) and the solar flux Wednesday (October 20) was 111, Thursday it was 112 and later today (Friday) through Sunday it is predicted to be 115, 120 and 115. Funny how less than two weeks ago the sunspot count was 0 for two days running, and on October 20 the sunspot number was 129. Doug Bender, WW6D of Santa Rosa, California sent an interesting article from NASA outlining the significance of the sun's two spotless days. Like our bulletin last week (ARLP042), it reports that one has to look back to early 1998 to find a day with no sunspots prior to January of this year. The article quotes a solar physicist who says that this behavior is a sign that the solar minimum is coming. He notes that solar cycles are not exactly 11 years long, but have been as short as 9 years, with the longest running 14 years. Of course we don't know the length of the cycle until some time after it is over, because there is enough daily variation that nobody can tell for sure when the maximum or the minimum occurred until a smoothed running average can be observed. As we've mentioned in previous bulletins, this article places the next solar minimum in late 2006. The article describes a theory that places a prediction for solar minimum about 34 months after the first spotless day following the peak of a solar cycle. David Hathaway, the scientist quoted in the article thinks the solar maximum will come about four years after the minimum, so expect that in 2010. This is important to hams, of course, because averaging over a decade each, one doesn't get to experience many solar cycles in one's lifetime, unless you start young. In my case, I started out as WN7CSK, a 12 year old Novice almost 40 years ago near the minimum between Cycle 19 and Cycle 20. But at 52, how many more will I see? Cycle 19, the best sunspot cycle ever, peaked when I was about six years old and hadn't been introduced to ham radio, and it is unlikely I will ever see one as fantastic as Cycle 19. Check out the article yourself at, http://science.nasa.gov/headlines/y2004/18oct_solarminimum.htm?list69769 5. You can read some articles on solar cycle prediction at, http://science.nasa.gov/ssl/pad/solar/predict.htm and http://www.sec.noaa.gov/info/Cycle23.html. Wes Wysocki, SP2DX wrote to comment on the recent bulletins, which mentioned the need to activate bands which are actually open, but seem dead due to lack of activity. He said for over a quarter century he has made it a habit to call on empty bands, and he usually gets some kind of reply. Recently he has been doing this on 17 and 12 meters, and half the time he scares up something at a considerable distance. If you would like to comment or have a tip, email the author at, [EMAIL PROTECTED] For more information concerning propagation and an explanation of the numbers used in this bulletin see the ARRL Technical Information Service propagation page at, http://www.arrl.org/tis/info/propagation.html. Sunspot numbers for October 14 through 20 were 38, 26, 43, 51, 86, 86 and 129 with a mean of 65.6. 10.7 cm flux was 90.7, 89.2, 91.7, 91.9, 96.2, 99.1 and 111.3, with a mean of 95.7. Estimated planetary A indices were 27, 9, 5, 3, 4, 4 and 12, with a mean of 9.1. Estimated mid-latitude A indices were 12, 6, 3, 0, 4, 3 and 9, with a mean of 5.3. /EX -- Archives http://www.mail-archive.com/[EMAIL PROTECTED] --
[DX-News] ARLP043 Propagation de K7RA
SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP043 ARLP043 Propagation de K7RA ZCZC AP43 QST de W1AW Propagation Forecast Bulletin 43 ARLP043 >From Tad Cook, K7RA Seattle, WA October 24, 2003 To all radio amateurs SB PROP ARL ARLP043 ARLP043 Propagation de K7RA Big news this week is a colossal sunspot that appeared on Sunday, October 19. It first emerged at about seven times the earth's diameter, but two days later on Tuesday, it had grown to around the size of Jupiter, which is equivalent to eleven earth diameters. This is one of the largest sunspot groups to appear during the current cycle 23. Along with this large spot have been coronal mass ejections, keeping the earth's magnetic field upset, and an additional spot by mid-week. An ejection caused a radio blackout on Sunday around 1650z. This is a big change from the recently spotless sun. Now a large coronal mass ejection threatens, and the predicted arrival time is Friday, October 24. This is not good news for contesters who hoped to work the CQ Worldwide DX SSB Contest this weekend. Currently on Thursday evening, the forecast is for a planetary A index of 50 for Friday through Sunday, October 24-26, but this could be a modest projection. Solar flux has risen since October 14 when it was only 92, and should top 200 by the middle of the coming week. The growing solar activity is dramatic enough that it is now national news. Check the following sites for articles. http://www.msnbc.com/news/984388.asp?cp1=1 http://seattlepi.nwsource.com/national/144998_solar23.html http://www.al.com/news/huntsvilletimes/index.ssf?/base/news/10669311701761 40.xml http://the.honoluluadvertiser.com/article/2003/Oct/23/ln/ln14a.html http://rockymountainnews.com/drmn/state/article/0,1299,DRMN_21_2369006,00. html The solar flux value of 191 shown below for October 22 is the value measured at the Penticton observatory. The number from the NOAA Space Environment Center was lowered to 154, probably because of a flare enhancement to the Penticton reading. Those who keep records may want to lower the value for that day to 154 from 191, which would make the week's average for the daily solar flux 123.4 rather than 128.7. Not shown here is the following day, October 23, when the observatory at Penticton measured 209.3 and the SEC reported it as 183. These seem to be estimates based upon the morning measurements made three hours before local noon, which were both around 154 and 183 for the two days. Sean Blackburn, KB7OOH of Everett, Washington wrote to inquire about a source for sunspot numbers to use with the W6ELprop software for propagation prediction. The numbers are at, http://www.sec.noaa.gov/ftpdir/indices/DSD.txt. It is probably best to average several days of sunspot numbers to use with this program. As always, it is available free at. http://www.qsl.net/w6elprop/. For more information about propagation and an explanation of the numbers used in this bulletin see the Propagation page on the ARRL Web site at http://www.arrl.org/tis/info/propagation.html. Sunspot numbers for October 16 through 22 were 28, 66, 91, 89, 113, 144 and 117, with a mean of 92.6. 10.7 cm flux was 95.2, 98.8, 108.6, 120.4, 135.1, 151.5 and 191, with a mean of 128.7. Estimated planetary A indices were 26, 31, 27, 32, 30, 39 and 33, with a mean of 31.1. /EX -- Subscribe/unsubscribe, feedback, FAQ, problems, etc DX-NEWS http://njdxa.org/dx-news DX-CHAT: http://njdxa.org/dx-chat To post a message, DX NEWS items only, [EMAIL PROTECTED] Archives http://www.mail-archive.com/dx-news%40njdxa.org --
