Postdoctoral Position Climate Change and Bird Distribution Modeler Audubon's mission is to conserve and restore natural ecosystems, focusing on birds, other wildlife, and their habitats for the benefit of humanity and the earth's biological diversity.
Position Summary: The Climate Change Modeling postdoc, in collaboration with the Fish and Wildlife Service and the Landscape Conservation Cooperatives, will model the effects of future climate change on bird distribution and status in the 48-contiguous states and provide the results to the conservation planning processes for all the Landscape Conservation Cooperatives. This information is critical to the design and implementation of management and conservation strategies that will help ecosystems and species adapt to current and future climate change. Birds are a useful means to study the current and potential effects of climate change on ecosystems, because they are excellent environmental indicators, are easy to study, and respond predictably to changes in the environment. At landscape scales, birds can provide useful insights into how ecosystems are and will be affected by climate change. Measures taken to conserve bird habitats and populations will result in the conservation of many other species, habitats, and ecosystems. Project Description: To deal with the uncertainty inherent in all models, we will use a series of models to explore both climate change and how birds may respond to those changes. We will focus our analysis on the more than 600 species of birds that regularly occur in continental United States and for which bird distribution data are easily obtained from Audubons Christmas Bird Count (CBC) and the North American Breeding Bird Survey (BBS). Contemporary climate interpolation will be derived from PRISM: Parameter-elevation Regression on Independent Slope Model. In phase I, we will develop historic time series models using observed climatic associations of each species and undertake a rigorous validation process. In phase II, we will develop contemporary models that can be projected to the future using 112 different climate models and scenarios. Phase I will be completed in the first 6 months and Phase II will be completed in 12 months. The final 6 months will be devoted to publishing results in peer-reviewed journals. This effort will produce more than 100 predictive scenarios for each species, resulting in more than 600,000 data layers for birds. We will use an ensemble modeling technique to combine scenarios for individual species and provide a composite understanding of how a species might respond under different emission futures. We then will look for areas in each species range that show agreement across models. In addition to the project work, 1-3 publications, led by the postdoc, are expected. This is an 18-month position based in Emeryville or Sacramento, California. Essential Functions: Climate Change model of bird distribution for 600 bird species in lower 48-states Data layers for 600 species and more than 100 modeling runs creating data layers of approximately 600,000. Results for each LCC region: all layers, and summary layers by key species and habitat. Interactions with every LCC to answer questions and provide technical support Develop and analyze large datasets and results related to climate change Use BBS and CBC data in the Western United States to examine changes in bird populations since 1960 Write conservation briefs and factsheets based on analyses Create fine-scale distribution maps of bird species in support of policy initiatives Develop publication quality figures for education and outreach Publish original research and present results at conferences Assist staff with reports and newsletter articles Additional technical duties as requested Qualifications: PhD in spatial or quantitative statistics required or advanced degree in related field with at least five years experience as a quantitative analyst. Demonstrated expertise in R and GIS required. Past modeling experience with Maxent, Domain, BRTs, and other programs strongly preferred. Timeline: Please submit a cover letter and resume to Gary Langham at glang...@audubon.org by March 31st.
