Re: odds vs probabilities
Odds are multiplicative in the following sense, useful in some types of betting arrangements. If the odds of one bet are 4 to 3 and of the next bet 3 to 2 then the odds of both bets are the product 4*3 to 3*2 or 2 to 1. This is useful in some horse racing bets where the second (and even more) bets are made sequentially provided the earlier bets are winners for the gambler (placed with the bookmaker). Odds have a cultural history that seems to be lost. They were the common form of gambling until quite recently, when even odds bets with point spreads became common for such sports as basketball and football. Odds require a strong facility with arithmetic when there are multiple results, such as in a horse race. There, as always, the odds are constrained by the usual requirement that the corresponding probabilities must still add to one, at least for fair bets. Imposing this requirement on the fly when a bookmaker changes the odds on a horse seems difficult unless there were some quick simple rules of thumb that were part of bookmakers' lore. Those rules of thumb would have included the profit margin for the bookie automatically, making all the bets slightly, but fairly evenly, unfair for the bettor. If anyone knows of such rules I would appreciate hearing them. Regards, David David W. Smith, Ph.D., M.P.H. (518) 439-6421 45 The Crosway Delmar, NY 12054 [EMAIL PROTECTED] - Original Message - From: Brad Branford [EMAIL PROTECTED] To: [EMAIL PROTECTED] Sent: Saturday, February 23, 2002 9:49 AM Subject: Re: odds vs probabilities probabilities. I know that probs have a problem in that they don't make multiplicative sense: = Instructions for joining and leaving this list, remarks about the problem of INAPPROPRIATE MESSAGES, and archives are available at http://jse.stat.ncsu.edu/ =
Expected value problem...
Hi,
I am trying to work out the expected value of a RV z. After some
manipulation, I end up with the following integral to
solve:
\int{zsin{P(z)]^{2}cos(P(z))^{2}}dz
(I think I got that right: integral z*sin2(P(z))*cos2(P(z))dz,
where
sin2 and cos2 mean square of sin and cos, respectively). P(z) is the PDF
of z, and as such is just a Gaussian PDF.
So I am trying to solve this integral, but so far without much success.
My thoughts went as follows:
1.- sin2(P(z))*cos2(P(z)) = (1/4)*sin2(2*P(z))
2.- 2*sin2(2*P(z)) = 1-cos(4*P(z))
So I arrive at the sum of two integrals. One is immediate, and
the other is
\int z
cos(\frac{4}{\sqrt{2\pi}\sigma}exp(\frac{-z^{2]}{2\sigma}})dz,
which I
guessed I could solve by parts (letting z=u and cos(...)=dv). The
problem is I can't integrate something that looks like cos(exp(-z^2)),
and if I reverse the choice of the parts transformation, I don't benefit
at all from the new z^{2] term!
So I thought about a substitution. The only one that made sense to me
was e^{-z^2}=t, but working out the dz/dt bit is problematic (just try
to get the z out of the exponential...).
I guess that my question is... has anyone dealt with this before? I
can't find it in any of the tables at hand, and I suppose that this sort
of thing _must_ have occurred before!!
Thanks
Xose
--
Xose
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Cauchy PDF + Parameter Estimate
Hi! Does anyone come across some Matlab code to estimate the parameters for the Cauchy PDF?? Or some other sources about the method to estimate their parameters?? Thanks.. CCC = Instructions for joining and leaving this list, remarks about the problem of INAPPROPRIATE MESSAGES, and archives are available at http://jse.stat.ncsu.edu/ =
Demand forecast
Can anyone recommend a good text on demand forecasting? in particular I would like to have information about forecats models for newspapers sales. thanks, simone = Instructions for joining and leaving this list, remarks about the problem of INAPPROPRIATE MESSAGES, and archives are available at http://jse.stat.ncsu.edu/ =
Re: Question on Conditional PDF
Chia C Chong [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote in message a5d38d$63e$[EMAIL PROTECTED]">news:a5d38d$63e$[EMAIL PROTECTED]... Glen [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote in message [EMAIL PROTECTED]">news:[EMAIL PROTECTED]... Do you want to make any assumptions about the form of the conditional, or the joint, or any of the marginals? Well, the X Y are dependent and hence there are being descibed by a joint PDF. This much is clear. I am not sure what other assumption I can make though.. I merely though you may have domain specific knowledge of the variables and their likely relationships which might inform the choice a bit (cut down the space of possibilities). Can you at least indicate whether any of them are restricted to be positive? Glen = Instructions for joining and leaving this list, remarks about the problem of INAPPROPRIATE MESSAGES, and archives are available at http://jse.stat.ncsu.edu/ =
Re: regression of non-normal data ?
John Ziker wrote: This research deals with the classical anthropological question of food sharing among hunters and gatherers. There are a number of hypotheses being discussed within the field. This study is relevant for two models, namely kinship cooperation and reciprocity. The kinship model predicts greater assymetry in sharing with increasing proximity of relatedness between the partners. The reciprocity model predicts that sharing is contigent on returned acts of sharing. I have a small sample of meals I observed and documented among Dolgan and Nganasan hunter-gatherers in a remote community in the Siberian Arctic. I documented approximately 800 meals in 1995 and 1996. Of these, 145 meals included members of more than one household. I am including the raw data in this message. These raw data are: the number of times household x hosted household y, the number of times household y hosted household x, and the average household relatedness of household x and y. The relatedness figure was calculated as the average relatedness (r) of each pair of individuals in each household. [The variable 'r'is used in biology to represent the likelihood that two individuals share a gene at a given locus.] The main question I have is: with these data is it possible to determine statistically whether or not average household r predicts x to y sharing better than y to x reciprocity, or vice versa. The sample is highly skewed because of the fact that, even though the households represented are the ones in my sample that had the highest number of sharing partners, not every household hosted each other. ... I have run Spearmans rho and the correlation is highly significant for all comparisons. The data are not normal though, and I am questioning multiple regression results (X to Y dependent variable). A college of mine suggests that the standardized beta result may be a valid indicator of some significant difference however. I'd greatly appreciate any suggestions. Regression does NOT require normally distributed data. Neither the independent nor the dependent variable needs to be normally distributed. It is a common misconception that normality is required. However, it is required that the errors from the prediction are normally distribution. Generally, this is tested after you fit the regression by seeing if your residuals are normally distributed. Now, having said this, how does it apply to your sitaution? You need to examine your data and see if the assumption holds. It may not, but I won't presume to do the work for you. Your question about using standardized betas is confusing to me, this is just a different scaling of the betas, it doesn't affect significance. -- Paige Miller Eastman Kodak Company [EMAIL PROTECTED] It's nothing until I call it! -- Bill Klem, NL Umpire When you get the choice to sit it out or dance, I hope you dance -- Lee Ann Womack . . . . . . . . . . . . . = Instructions for joining and leaving this list, remarks about the problem of INAPPROPRIATE MESSAGES, and archives are available at http://jse.stat.ncsu.edu/ =
Re: REQ: Appendix A. of Radford Neal thesis: Bayesian Learning for
Mark wrote:
Hi,
I'm CS student interested in Radford Neal thesis called Bayesian
Learning for Neural Networks. I know that some years ago this thesis
was available for download from author's site, but nowadays there
isn't possible. I have searched it on Intenet so I have not known to
find it.
I should be grateful if anyone could tell me where I can find it, or
could send it to me via e-mail.
I specially interested in Appendix A. of this thesis.
As the other poster suggested, it has been published:
@Book{neal-bayesian-nn,
author = R.M. Neal,
title =Bayesian Learning for Neural Networks,
publisher =Springer Verlag,
year = 1996
}
From the preface: This book, a revision of my PhD thesis [Bayesian
Learning for Neural Networks] ...
Appendix A: Details of the Implementation.
Best regards,
Jon C.
--
Jonathan G Campbell BT48 7PG [EMAIL PROTECTED] 028 7126 6125
http://homepage.ntlworld.com/jg.campbell/
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Re: Question on Conditional PDF
Glen Barnett [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote in message a5dev7$8jn$[EMAIL PROTECTED]">news:a5dev7$8jn$[EMAIL PROTECTED]... Chia C Chong [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote in message a5d38d$63e$[EMAIL PROTECTED]">news:a5d38d$63e$[EMAIL PROTECTED]... Glen [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote in message [EMAIL PROTECTED]">news:[EMAIL PROTECTED]... Do you want to make any assumptions about the form of the conditional, or the joint, or any of the marginals? Well, the X Y are dependent and hence there are being descibed by a joint PDF. This much is clear. I am not sure what other assumption I can make though.. I merely though you may have domain specific knowledge of the variables and their likely relationships which might inform the choice a bit (cut down the space of possibilities). Can you at least indicate whether any of them are restricted to be positive? All values of X and Z are positive while Y can have both positive and negative values. In fact, X has the range span from 0 to 250 (time) and Y has values that span from -60 to +60 (angle) and Z has some positive values. Note that, the joint PDF of X Y was defined as f(X,Y)=f(Y|X)f(X) in which f(Y|X) is a conditional Gaussian PDF and f(X) is an exponential PDF. The plot of the 3rd variable, Z (Power) i.e. Z vs X and Z vs.Y, respectively shows that Z has some kind of dependency on X and Y, hence, my original post was asking the possible method of finding the conditional PDF of Z on both X and Y. I hope this makes things a little bit clearer or more complicated??? Thanks.. CCC Glen = Instructions for joining and leaving this list, remarks about the problem of INAPPROPRIATE MESSAGES, and archives are available at http://jse.stat.ncsu.edu/ =
What is an outlier ?
Hi, My doubt isan outlier can be a LOW data value in the sample (and not just the highest) ? Several text boks dont make this clear !!! Thanks V. = Instructions for joining and leaving this list, remarks about the problem of INAPPROPRIATE MESSAGES, and archives are available at http://jse.stat.ncsu.edu/ =
Re: Cauchy PDF + Parameter Estimate
On 25 Feb 2002 07:56:56 -0800, [EMAIL PROTECTED] (kjetil halvorsen) wrote: It isstraightforward tlo write down the loglikelihood, and then whatever optimization routine (there must be one in Matlab) will help you! Just be careful when searching, because Cauchy likelihoods are frequently multi-modal. Duncan Murdoch = Instructions for joining and leaving this list, remarks about the problem of INAPPROPRIATE MESSAGES, and archives are available at http://jse.stat.ncsu.edu/ =
Reviewers Needed for Progress in Transplantation
The editor of Progress in Transplantation is needing biostatisticians for reviewers. If you are interested, see below. Mark Eakin Associate Professor Information Systems and Management Sciences Department University of Texas at Arlington [EMAIL PROTECTED] or [EMAIL PROTECTED] -Original Message- From: [EMAIL PROTECTED] [mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED]] Sent: Saturday, February 09, 2002 10:53 AM [EMAIL PROTECTED]; [EMAIL PROTECTED]; [EMAIL PROTECTED] deleted addresses Subject: Editorial Board Needs Progress in Transplantation has had an increase in the number of manuscript submissions in the following areas: 1. living liver transplantation (donors, recipients) 2. pediatric transplantation 3. qualitative research I am looking for PhD qualitative researchers to review manuscripts for our journal and published clinicians in living liver donation as well as clinicians in pediatrics. We are also in need of PhD prepared biostatisticians with a focus in transplant related issues and at least one additional transplant pharmacist (pharmD) (published). If you know of any colleagues with these qualifications or interests, please have them contact me at [EMAIL PROTECTED] or 703-534-0293 or send their CVs to me at Linda Ohler, Editor Progress in Transplantation 4013 N. Stuart Street Arlington, VA 22207 = Instructions for joining and leaving this list, remarks about the problem of INAPPROPRIATE MESSAGES, and archives are available at http://jse.stat.ncsu.edu/ =
Statistical Resources Site
The University of Michigan Documents Center has a Web site with links to statistical resources that might prove invaluable to those interested in a wide variety of data sources. Check it out. http://www.lib.umich.edu/govdocs/stats.html = Instructions for joining and leaving this list, remarks about the problem of INAPPROPRIATE MESSAGES, and archives are available at http://jse.stat.ncsu.edu/ =
Re: What is an outlier ? cont'd
--A59A95727DA65C2AB2F9EBF5 Content-Type: text/plain; charset=us-ascii Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7bit That being said, occasions can arise where there are outliers other than from measurement or data entry error. Different disciplines have different approaches. What discipline are you studying? What is the variable you are concerned about? How is it measured? some examples of low values: 10 pounds would be a suspicious value for an adult's weight. Few college students are under 16. 37degrees F would be unreasonable for a body temperature of a li --A59A95727DA65C2AB2F9EBF5 Content-Type: text/html; charset=us-ascii Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7bit !doctype html public -//w3c//dtd html 4.0 transitional//en html That being said, occasions bcan /barise where there are outliers other than from measurement or data entry error. Different disciplines have different approaches. brWhat discipline are you studying? What is the variable you are concerned about?nbsp; How is it measured? psome examples of low values: br10 pounds would be a suspicious value for an adult's weight. brFew college students are under 16. br37degrees F would be unreasonable for a body temperature of a li brnbsp;/html --A59A95727DA65C2AB2F9EBF5-- = Instructions for joining and leaving this list, remarks about the problem of INAPPROPRIATE MESSAGES, and archives are available at http://jse.stat.ncsu.edu/ =
What is an outlier ?
--6F47CB3D3B10A10A3E9B064C Content-Type: text/plain; charset=us-ascii Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7bit An outlier is any value for a variable that is suspect given the measurement system, common sense, other values for the variable in the data set, or the values a case has on other variables. Yes, an outlier can be low given the measurement system and the values for the other cases in the data set. BUT In my experience an outlier usually means that proper quality assurance has not been done on the data set. Before doing anything else, QA procedures should be redone before doing the actual analysis on a data set. Go back and look at the measurement situation. Consider redoing the data entry. ve person. some examples of out of defined range values a ranking of 11 would be impossible if there are 10 stimuli to be ranked. An average of 3 judges on a 1 to 5 response scale cannot be 3.5. 169 would be an unreasonable number of hours to claim to work in a week. --6F47CB3D3B10A10A3E9B064C Content-Type: text/html; charset=us-ascii Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7bit !doctype html public -//w3c//dtd html 4.0 transitional//en html An outlier is any value for a variable that is suspect given the measurement system, common sense,nbsp; other values for the variable in the data set, ornbsp; the values a case has on other variables. pYes, an outlier can be low given the measurement system and the values for the other cases in the data set. pBUT In my experience an outlier busually/b means that proper quality assurance has not been done on the data set.nbsp;nbsp; Before doing anything else, QA procedures should be redone before doing the actual analysis on a data set.nbsp; Go back and look at the measurement situation. Consider redoing the data entry. pve person. psome examples of out of defined range values bra ranking of 11 would be impossible if there are 10 stimuli to be ranked. brAn average of 3 judges on a 1 to 5 response scale cannot be 3.5. br169 would be an unreasonable number of hours to claim to work in a week./html --6F47CB3D3B10A10A3E9B064C-- = Instructions for joining and leaving this list, remarks about the problem of INAPPROPRIATE MESSAGES, and archives are available at http://jse.stat.ncsu.edu/ =
Re: What is an outlier ?
of course, if one has control over the data, checking the coding and making sure it is correct is a good thing to do if you do not have control over that, then there may be very little you can do with it and in fact, you may be totally UNaware of an outlier problem i see as a potentially MUCH larger problem when ONLY certain summary statistics are shown without any basic tallies/graphs displayed so, IF there are some really strange outlier values, it usually will go undetected ... correlations are ONE good case in point ... have a look at the following scatterplot ... height in inches and weight in pounds ... from the pulse data set in minitab - * - 300+ - Weight - - 2 - 2 224 32 150+ ** 3458*454322* -*53*3*535 2 - ** --+-+-+-+-+-+Height 32.0 40.0 48.0 56.0 64.0 72.0 now, the actual r between the X and Y is -.075 ... and of course, this seems strange but, IF you had only seen this in a matrix of r values ... you might say that perhaps there was serious range restriction that more or less wiped out the r in this case ... but even the desc. stats might not adequately tell you of this problem IF you had the scatterplot, you probably would figure out REAL quick that there is a PROBLEM with one of the data points ... in fact, without that one weird data point, the r is about .8 ... which makes a lot better sense when correlating heights and weights of college students At 09:06 PM 2/25/02 +, Art Kendall wrote: --6F47CB3D3B10A10A3E9B064C Content-Type: text/plain; charset=us-ascii Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7bit An outlier is any value for a variable that is suspect given the measurement system, common sense, other values for the variable in the data set, or the values a case has on other variables. = Dennis Roberts, 208 Cedar Bldg., University Park PA 16802 Emailto: [EMAIL PROTECTED] WWW: http://roberts.ed.psu.edu/users/droberts/drober~1.htm AC 8148632401 = Instructions for joining and leaving this list, remarks about the problem of INAPPROPRIATE MESSAGES, and archives are available at http://jse.stat.ncsu.edu/ =
STATA Constrained Regression
Does anybody know how to run this constrained regression in STATA? The model is Y=b1X1 + b2X2 + b3X3, where b1+b2+b3=1 and 0bi1 for each i. Thanks. Emmanuel Salta [EMAIL PROTECTED] = Instructions for joining and leaving this list, remarks about the problem of INAPPROPRIATE MESSAGES, and archives are available at http://jse.stat.ncsu.edu/ =
Re: detecting outliers in NON normal data ?
Voltolini wrote: Hi, I would like to know if methods for detecting outliers using interquartil ranges are indicated for data with NON normal distribution. The software Statistica presents this method: data point value UBV + o.c.*(UBV - LBV) data point value LBV - o.c.*(UBV - LBV) where: UBV is the 75th percentile) and LBV is the 25th percentile). o.c. is the outlier coefficient. The values of the outlier coefficient are traditionally chosen by reference to some percentile of the normal distribution. (If anyone didn't recognise it, this is just the outliers on a boxplot.) If you choose that coefficient in some appropriate way, then it may be reasonable for non-normal data. Glen = Instructions for joining and leaving this list, remarks about the problem of INAPPROPRIATE MESSAGES, and archives are available at http://jse.stat.ncsu.edu/ =
Re: Cauchy PDF + Parameter Estimate
Herman Rubin wrote: In article a5daqb$72k$[EMAIL PROTECTED], Chia C Chong [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote: Hi! Does anyone come across some Matlab code to estimate the parameters for the Cauchy PDF?? Or some other sources about the method to estimate their parameters?? What is so difficult about maximum likelihood? Start with a reasonable estimator, and use Newton's method. There are difficulties with Newton's method (and many other hill-climbing techniques) because the cauchy likelihood function is generally multimodal. You can end up somewhere other than the MLE unless you use a somewhat more sophisticated starting point than a reasonable estimator. There are good estimators that can start you off very close to the true maximum, but it's a long time since I've seen that literature, so I can't name names right now. Glen = Instructions for joining and leaving this list, remarks about the problem of INAPPROPRIATE MESSAGES, and archives are available at http://jse.stat.ncsu.edu/ =
Re: What is an outlier ?
Voltolini wrote: Hi, My doubt isan outlier can be a LOW data value in the sample (and not just the highest) ? Several text boks dont make this clear !!! What makes an outlier an outlier is your model. If your model accounts for all the observations, you can't really call any of them an outlier. If your model adequately accounts for all but one or two unusual observations, you might regard them as coming from some process other than that which generated the data you model accounts for, and call them outliers. Such not adequately accounted for observations may be low observations, or high observations, or they may actually turn out be somewhere in the middle of the range of your data - as I have seen with time series for example, where in some applications an autoregressive models was a very good desctiption of a long series, apart from a few outliers in the first quarter or so of the time period (which did in the end turn out to have come from a different process, because the protocol wasn't always being properly followed early on). Two of those outliers - in the sense that the model didn't adequately account for them - turn out to be neither particularly high or low observations - but they were substantially higher or lower than expected from the model. Another case where you might have outliers in the middle of your data is in a regression context, where a generally increasing relationship shows a tight, gaussian-looking random scatter about the relationship, but with a couple of relatively low y-values at some of the higher x-values. The observations themselves may actually be very close to the mean of the y's, but the model of the relationship makes them unusual. A different model - for example, one where the observations come from a distribution which has the same expectation as a function of x, but which has a heavier tail to the left around that - might account for all the data and not find any outliers. Glen = Instructions for joining and leaving this list, remarks about the problem of INAPPROPRIATE MESSAGES, and archives are available at http://jse.stat.ncsu.edu/ =
Re: Means of semantic differential scales
Jay Tanzman wrote: I just got chewed out by my boss for modelling the means of some 7-point semantic differential scales. The scales were part of a written, self-administered questionnaire, and were laid out like this: Not stressful 1__ 2__ 3__ 4__ 5__ 6__ 7__ Very stressful So, why or why not is it kosher to model the means of scales like this? -Jay 1)Why do you think the scale is interval data, and not ordinal or categorical? If interval, the increments between the levels are more or less equal. If ordinal we know they are sequential, but have no idea how far apart each pair is. Categorical means there is no relationship between them - 4 is not greater than 3 - it's only different. Some people use a response of 4 to mean 'no response' as well as 'no opinion' and 'neutral opinion.' sorry, these are not intervals. 2)Is it possible for a respondent to come back with 2.5? If so, they think it is interval data, regardless of your opinion. Would you throw out a response of 2.5, or would you enter it in your dataset as 2.5? If the latter, you think it is interval, also. 3)What makes you think the scale is linear (equal intervals)? It ain't - since respondents can't go below 1 or above 7 . Well, maybe 0 and 8, but the point is the same. If you must, make a transformation (arc-sine for starters) to make it more 'linear' and more likely to contain Normal dist. data. 4)Why might the respondents use the same increments that you think exist, or the same as other respondents? If there is some way you can 'anchor' at end points or mid point, you will get much more informative data. I mean, what is 'very stressful' to you? To me? to anyone? Perhaps you are evaluating how people respond to specific scenarios with their impression of anticipated stress. In which case, the strength of 'very' is at issue, and perhaps you can argue that it is what you are measuring. (remember the old maps: there be dragons). When I sit down with a client to work out an experimental design for a project, one might call this highly stressful. I am in full control of the alternatives and options, so to me it is great fun, and very invigorating. the situation is far from 'Not stressful' - it is not opposite of 'stressful.' I know my muscles have been stressed, because it is also very tiring. so what might be 'stressful'? Is that worked out with your respondents beforehand? 5)In cases where I have been able to anchor firmly, and in some where I haven't, I find that treating the scale as incremental data work just fine, thank you. As soon as you compute an average of responses on this scale, you have done just that. If you restrict yourself to categorical analysis for frequencies between categories, you have avoided that assumption. And you have far less to say about the data, as well. Cheers, Jay -- Jay Warner Principal Scientist Warner Consulting, Inc. North Green Bay Road Racine, WI 53404-1216 USA Ph: (262) 634-9100 FAX: (262) 681-1133 email: [EMAIL PROTECTED] web: http://www.a2q.com The A2Q Method (tm) -- What do you want to improve today? = Instructions for joining and leaving this list, remarks about the problem of INAPPROPRIATE MESSAGES, and archives are available at http://jse.stat.ncsu.edu/ =
WSCH : A Revolutionary Acne Treatment and More HZ
Title: SPECIAL ALERT Special Alert : WASATCH PHARMACEUTICALS (OTCBB: WSCH)TOP4 REASONS TO BUY WSCH1.The products and medical therapies developed by WSCH represent possibly the most important breakthrough in the field of Dermatology in the last fifty years.2.WSCH anticipates FDA approval on seven over-the-counter products within the next year, which will provide significant revenue in the retail drug market.3.WSCH has experienced a success rate of 90% during clinical studies, completely eliminating skin disease from 90% of all patients treated.4.By year five, WSCH plans to have annualized revenue over $525 million and over $125 million in EBIT. This does not take into account income from OTC products which will be substantial. PROJECTIONS, OBJECTIVES AND STATISTICS Over a five year period, AISC (WSCH's subsidiary) plans to establish 350 clinics in over 100 major population areas.The company plans to hire over 150 medical doctors for these clinics, train over 1,000 medical assistants and treat over 2,000,000 patients. Also by year five, WSCH plans to have annualized over $525 million in revenue and over $125 million in EBIT. This does not take into account income from OTC products which will be substantial.As of 1991, there were approximately 14 million chronic acne and eczema patients annually in the United States,with the highest percentage between 18 to 44 years ofage. The actual number of patients with any type of acneIs significantly higher.Seven billion dollars is spentannually on dermatological pharmaceutical products forthese disorders.In 1994, the teen population reached 25 million. Duringthe next decade, it will grow at nearly twice the rate ofthe overall population (according to U.S. Census Bureauprojections).Acne patients are primarily teenagers,whereas eczema patients range from infants to theelderly. SYMBOL: WSCH CURRENT PRICE: $0.059 52 WEEK HIGH: $27.50 52 WEEK LOW: $0.056COMPANY BACKGROUNDWasatch Pharmaceutical, Inc. is a fourteen year old company with a record of outstanding achievements in the field of Dermatology. Dermatology.Under the name of its subsidiary, American Institute of Skin Care (AISC), Wasatch has operated two prototype clinics for the last five years where the products and medical therapies have been tested and proven on hundreds of patients. The Company's activities have been centered on research in the area of serious skin diseases.A concurrent discovery and benefit is WSCH's dramatic success in the area of skin rejuvenation.Seeing the high growth potential from major funding, WSCH elected to become a public company less than two years ago.Wasatch's major successes in the area of skin diseases include:Cystic Acne, Eczema, Seborrhea, Contact Dermatitis, Molluscum, Folliculitis, Acne Rosacea and less prevalent skin diseases.Interestingly, these skin disorders account for more than 70% of all business in the field of dermatology for which there are very few (if any) safe, effective therapies like those developed by Wasatch.Because the therapies developed by Wasatch dominate this area of medicine, WSCH has elected to market its products via company-owned clinics throughout the United States.This decision has resulted in the establishment of two research clinics in Utah for the purpose of implementing procedures within the clinics pursuant to testing and confirming the results that were achieved in past clinical trials. Due to its success rate of 90% on hundreds of patients over a five year period, WSCH's clinics are now on line with insurance providers independent of HMOs. Efforts to establish Preferred Providership status with HMOs are presently being pursued.THIS JUST IN : WSCH BREAKING NEWSWasatch Pharmaceutical Inc. Announces a New Physician Marketing Campaign and Listing On German Stock Exchanges MURRAY, Utah--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Nov. 27, 2001--Wasatch Pharmaceutical Inc. (OTCBB:WSCH - news) CEO Gary Heesch announced today a marketing campaign directed to physicians. A direct link has been established on a physician recruiting Web site making available therapies for the treatment of cystic acne, acne, folliculitis and skin rejuvenation. Physicians will find the benefits of these treatment therapies by logging on to the X Acne link at the Physician Search website. This physician search Web site typically receives over 200,000 hits per month. Mr. Heesch reminded, Our treatment therapy products are also available via the AISC Online Store.These skin treatment products come in kit form providing a 90-day supply to patients for the full treatment program. Included in the kit is an instructional video on the treatment therapy allowing the patient to use these products in their home. The therapies, when used as instructed, achieve a success rate of eradication in excess of 90% with no side effects of any consequence. Previously, these therapies and associated products were only available through the two prototype clinics in Utah. The availability of these products will open the
