One way to quantitatively evaluate power versus probability of
communicating is to use the VOACAP Online tool:
http://www.voacap.com/prediction.html
The tool includes transmitter power at several steps, 1, 5, 10, 50, 100,
etc. Set the transmitter at your location and the receiver about 1300
miles away, optimal first hop for a 20 Degree radiation elevation angle.
Then keeping all parameters constant, run a few prediction at various
power levels and evaluate the area of the 90-100% probability on the
resulting prediction plots.

The resulting plot includes 10 lines, representing the 10% probability
steps.

John KN5L
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