Re: [EM] Thoughts on a nomination simulation

2010-06-18 Thread James Gilmour
Kristofer Munsterhjelm Sent: Thursday, June 17, 2010 9:58 AM In a parliamentary system, I imagine it would be possible for the party leadership to decide (in the manner that they decide a list under party list PR). How do parties in actual single-winner district parliamentary countries

Re: [EM] Thoughts on a nomination simulation

2010-06-17 Thread Kristofer Munsterhjelm
Dave Ketchum wrote: On Jun 16, 2010, at 9:57 PM, Kevin Venzke wrote: Hi Kristofer, --- En date de : Mer 16.6.10, Kristofer Munsterhjelm km-el...@broadpark.no a écrit : That is possible. Would primaries encourage that effect? If so, would we expect parties in two-party states without voter

[EM] Thoughts on a nomination simulation

2010-06-16 Thread Kevin Venzke
Hello, The last thing I did with my simulation is check whether on average a candidate would prefer to have withdrawn (considering the results of thousands of trials of one position) than stand, with the assumption that they care what happens when they lose. (I'm not sure that's actually a good

Re: [EM] Thoughts on a nomination simulation

2010-06-16 Thread Kristofer Munsterhjelm
Kevin Venzke wrote: Hello, The last thing I did with my simulation is check whether on average a candidate would prefer to have withdrawn (considering the results of thousands of trials of one position) than stand, with the assumption that they care what happens when they lose. (I'm not sure

Re: [EM] Thoughts on a nomination simulation

2010-06-16 Thread Kristofer Munsterhjelm
Kevin Venzke wrote: Hi Kristofer, --- En date de : Mer 16.6.10, Kristofer Munsterhjelm km-el...@broadpark.no a écrit : I think that a nomination simulation would have to be more complex, to take feedback into account. Candidates would position themselves somewhere in opinion space, then move

Re: [EM] Thoughts on a nomination simulation

2010-06-16 Thread Dave Ketchum
On Jun 16, 2010, at 9:57 PM, Kevin Venzke wrote: Hi Kristofer, --- En date de : Mer 16.6.10, Kristofer Munsterhjelm km-el...@broadpark.no a écrit : Even so, the simulation would fail to catch certain aspects of the election cycle itself. Consider a two party state under FPTP. In a pure

Re: [EM] Thoughts on a nomination simulation

2010-06-16 Thread Dave Ketchum
On Jun 16, 2010, at 11:11 PM, Kevin Venzke wrote: Hi Dave, --- En date de : Mer 16.6.10, Dave Ketchum da...@clarityconnect.com a écrit : That is possible. Would primaries encourage that effect? If so, would we expect parties in two-party states without voter primaries to be closer to each