Re: [EVDL] $1.7 Trillion reinvested
$5/W sounds hideously expensive. It's nearer $2.6/W installed here in the UK! But as far as your analysis goes, you haven't factored in the money that hundreds of companies that supply the armed services have made out of the war. That means jobs which keeps the politicians in power and everyone's a winner... except for all those who are killed, wounded, displaced etc etc. Of course, you could still have lots of jobs but in the renewable energy sector instead but try telling that to your average politician or gargantuan ICE SUV driver! MW On 26 Jun 2014, at 12:32, Peter Eckhoff via EV wrote: The purported cost of the Iraqi War so far has been $1.7 trillion (1.7 x 10^12).Whether this is war was worth it is **not** up for discussion here. This is strictly an exercise in examining what effect those funds would have had if applied differently. I would appreciate your vetting the thoughts and numbers below. The question is: What if those funds had been used for installing solar panels for recharging a fleet of electric vehicles? What does a “back of the envelope” set of calculations indicate as to whether such an investment would be viable and possibly pursued further? Assume for discussion purposes: 1)Each panel is rated at 250 watts. (Ref: http://www.suncityenergy.com/solarpanelratings/) This is in a common size (+/- a few watts).The rating assumes a standard irradiance of 1,000 whr /m^2. 2)Each panel costs $1250 installed which is $5/watt for a commercially installed panel. Some will self install and some will have a higher commercially installed array. 3)Each panel receives an average of 2 kwhr/m^2/day.This is doable in almost all parts of the lower 48 States and Hawaii in December, the worse month for solar over all.The Puget Sound - Portland (OR) and Alaska areas are the two exceptions.Most areas referenced below are well above 2 kwhr/m^2/day; some with a factor of 3 or greater. (Ref: http://rredc.nrel.gov/solar/old_data/nsrdb/1961-1990/redbook/atlas) 4)How far will an electric vehicle go using 1 kwhr of electricity.? ·Pickups can travel roughly 2 to 3 miles. ·Sedans can travel roughly 3 to 5 miles. ·A Tesla Model S with an EPA rated range of 265 miles with a 85 kwhr pack onboard produces a calculated average about 3 miles per kwhr. ·A range of 3 miles per kwhr was used below as an average To derive the amount of mileage that can be driven in a day electrically, the above panels and factors were multiplied together like so: _$1.7 x 10^12 _* _250w panel_ * _1 kw _* 1 hr * _2 kwhr sol m^2/day_ * _3 mi_ $1250 panel10^3w 1 kwhr std m^2/daykwhr This produces a result of 2.04 billion miles. How does this equate to miles driven per day using an equivalent gasoline powered sedan? Assume for discussion purposes: 1)The USA uses 20 million Barrels of Oil Per Day (BOPD).In recent years, this figure has decreased to about 18 million BOPD. 2)Each barrel of oil can be refined to produce 18 gallons of gasoline.This is close to the actual production figure. To derive the amount of average car miles that can be driven in a day using gasoline, the above factors were multiplied together like so: 20 million BOPD * 18 gallons of gasoline/BOPD * 20 Miles/Gallon = 7.2 billion miles/day We drive roughly 7.200 billion miles per day. 21 million BOPD over 7.2 billion miles driven per day produces a rough factor of 3 (x10^-3).If we multiply 2.04 billion electric only miles driven times this factor, we would equate this to using about 6 million BOPD.This is roughly the amount of our oil imports. While a $1.7 trillion dollar investment in solar panels will not be a substitute for all the oil we use, it would likely reduce our energy consumption by 6 million BOPD; enough for us to be ‘energy independent’ with maybe a little conservation added. How long would it take to pay this investment off? If electricity, through net metering, is $1.00 per 10 kwhr and gasoline is $4 per gallon, and a vehicle can be driven the same amount of miles on either 10 kwhr of electricity or 1 gallon of gasoline, the difference is $3.00 which would be allocated to paying off the $1.7 trillion dollar investment. We use 360 million gallons of gasoline a day, (20 million BOPD * 18 gallons/Barrel).$1.7 x 10^12/(0.360 gallons x 10^9 * 3) = 1.574 x 10^3 days or 4.31 years.Not too shabby. This is a very simplistic scenario where a lot of details and other costs that have to be worked out such as the cost of a pack; electrical storage, production, and transmission issues; (in)efficiency issues; weather related issues (the sun does not always shine); and utility regulatory/business issues.The bottom line is that this looks like it is doable financially with potentially solvable issues. ___ UNSUBSCRIBE: http://www.evdl.org/help/index.html#usub
Re: [EVDL] $1.7 Trillion reinvested
Peter, You are very generous with install cost of $5 per Watt and I think that cost level is old. Today's solar panels are all under $1 per Watt with few exceptions and installation typically doubles or triples that with the man-hours and the inverter installation material costs. What I have heard is closer to $2 per installed Watt for standard residential systems. You flip twice (cancelling the error) between 7.2 and 7,200 Most EVs are better than 3 miles per kWh, a few are less. It is a safe (relatively low) number since the majority of EVs get closer to 4 miles/kWh. Just some quick feedback. Good thought-provoking issue. Cor van de Water Chief Scientist Proxim Wireless Corporation http://www.proxim.com Email: cwa...@proxim.com Private: http://www.cvandewater.info Skype: cor_van_de_water Tel: +1 408 383 7626 -Original Message- From: EV [mailto:ev-boun...@lists.evdl.org] On Behalf Of Peter Eckhoff via EV Sent: Thursday, June 26, 2014 4:32 AM To: Electric Vehicle Discussion List Subject: [EVDL] $1.7 Trillion reinvested The purported cost of the Iraqi War so far has been $1.7 trillion (1.7 x 10^12).Whether this is war was worth it is **not** up for discussion here. This is strictly an exercise in examining what effect those funds would have had if applied differently. I would appreciate your vetting the thoughts and numbers below. The question is: What if those funds had been used for installing solar panels for recharging a fleet of electric vehicles? What does a back of the envelope set of calculations indicate as to whether such an investment would be viable and possibly pursued further? Assume for discussion purposes: 1)Each panel is rated at 250 watts. (Ref: http://www.suncityenergy.com/solarpanelratings/) This is in a common size (+/- a few watts).The rating assumes a standard irradiance of 1,000 whr /m^2. 2)Each panel costs $1250 installed which is $5/watt for a commercially installed panel. Some will self install and some will have a higher commercially installed array. 3)Each panel receives an average of 2 kwhr/m^2/day.This is doable in almost all parts of the lower 48 States and Hawaii in December, the worse month for solar over all.The Puget Sound - Portland (OR) and Alaska areas are the two exceptions.Most areas referenced below are well above 2 kwhr/m^2/day; some with a factor of 3 or greater. (Ref: http://rredc.nrel.gov/solar/old_data/nsrdb/1961-1990/redbook/atlas) 4)How far will an electric vehicle go using 1 kwhr of electricity.? *Pickups can travel roughly 2 to 3 miles. *Sedans can travel roughly 3 to 5 miles. *A Tesla Model S with an EPA rated range of 265 miles with a 85 kwhr pack onboard produces a calculated average about 3 miles per kwhr. *A range of 3 miles per kwhr was used below as an average To derive the amount of mileage that can be driven in a day electrically, the above panels and factors were multiplied together like so: _$1.7 x 10^12 _* _250w panel_ * _1 kw _* 1 hr * _2 kwhr sol m^2/day_ * _3 mi_ $1250 panel10^3w 1 kwhr std m^2/daykwhr This produces a result of 2.04 billion miles. How does this equate to miles driven per day using an equivalent gasoline powered sedan? Assume for discussion purposes: 1)The USA uses 20 million Barrels of Oil Per Day (BOPD).In recent years, this figure has decreased to about 18 million BOPD. 2)Each barrel of oil can be refined to produce 18 gallons of gasoline.This is close to the actual production figure. To derive the amount of average car miles that can be driven in a day using gasoline, the above factors were multiplied together like so: 20 million BOPD * 18 gallons of gasoline/BOPD * 20 Miles/Gallon = 7.2 billion miles/day We drive roughly 7.200 billion miles per day. 21 million BOPD over 7.2 billion miles driven per day produces a rough factor of 3 (x10^-3).If we multiply 2.04 billion electric only miles driven times this factor, we would equate this to using about 6 million BOPD.This is roughly the amount of our oil imports. While a $1.7 trillion dollar investment in solar panels will not be a substitute for all the oil we use, it would likely reduce our energy consumption by 6 million BOPD; enough for us to be 'energy independent' with maybe a little conservation added. How long would it take to pay this investment off? If electricity, through net metering, is $1.00 per 10 kwhr and gasoline is $4 per gallon, and a vehicle can be driven the same amount of miles on either 10 kwhr of electricity or 1 gallon of gasoline, the difference is $3.00 which would be allocated to paying off the $1.7 trillion dollar investment. We use 360 million gallons of gasoline a day, (20 million BOPD * 18 gallons/Barrel).$1.7 x 10^12/(0.360 gallons x 10^9 * 3) = 1.574 x 10^3 days or 4.31 years.Not too shabby. This is a very simplistic scenario where a lot of details and other costs that have to be worked out such as the cost of a pack; electrical storage, production, and
Re: [EVDL] $1.7 Trillion reinvested
Here's a parallel way to look at it, except with wind generation: According to the US DOE, in table 1: http://www.eia.gov/forecasts/capitalcost/pdf/updated_capcost.pdf the cost to build a wind farm is $2213/kW to build + $40/kW-yr to operate. Add to that pumped storage of the same capacity: $5288/kW to build + $14.13/kW-yr to operate and you would have about $7500/kW to build + about $54/kW-yr to operate. $1.7T would build 226,000,000kW or The US used about 1000MW peak during summer of 2012 - see table 4.2.B in http://www.eia.gov/electricity/annual/html/epa_01_02.html To build out with 100% wind, that would cost: wind generation = $7500/kW to build or $7500k / MW to build 1000MW would cost 1000 * $7500k = $7,500,000k = $7,500M = $7.5B That's about 0.4% of the $1.7T. In other words, we could completely replace our existing power generation with zero-carbon production and have plenty of money left over for operations, hyper-quick chargers everywhere, and just about every other government expense conceivable! By the way, you can do the math, but wind is substantially cheaper than building nukes if you include the operating costs of nukes. (ok, now who wants to vet my math? I make lots of mistakes :) Peri -- Original Message -- From: Peter Eckhoff via EV ev@lists.evdl.org To: Electric Vehicle Discussion List ev@lists.evdl.org Sent: 26-Jun-14 4:32:21 AM Subject: [EVDL] $1.7 Trillion reinvested The purported cost of the Iraqi War so far has been $1.7 trillion (1.7 x 10^12).Whether this is war was worth it is **not** up for discussion here. This is strictly an exercise in examining what effect those funds would have had if applied differently. I would appreciate your vetting the thoughts and numbers below. The question is: What if those funds had been used for installing solar panels for recharging a fleet of electric vehicles? What does a “back of the envelope” set of calculations indicate as to whether such an investment would be viable and possibly pursued further? Assume for discussion purposes: 1)Each panel is rated at 250 watts. (Ref: http://www.suncityenergy.com/solarpanelratings/) This is in a common size (+/- a few watts).The rating assumes a standard irradiance of 1,000 whr /m^2. 2)Each panel costs $1250 installed which is $5/watt for a commercially installed panel. Some will self install and some will have a higher commercially installed array. 3)Each panel receives an average of 2 kwhr/m^2/day.This is doable in almost all parts of the lower 48 States and Hawaii in December, the worse month for solar over all.The Puget Sound - Portland (OR) and Alaska areas are the two exceptions.Most areas referenced below are well above 2 kwhr/m^2/day; some with a factor of 3 or greater. (Ref: http://rredc.nrel.gov/solar/old_data/nsrdb/1961-1990/redbook/atlas) 4)How far will an electric vehicle go using 1 kwhr of electricity.? ·Pickups can travel roughly 2 to 3 miles. ·Sedans can travel roughly 3 to 5 miles. ·A Tesla Model S with an EPA rated range of 265 miles with a 85 kwhr pack onboard produces a calculated average about 3 miles per kwhr. ·A range of 3 miles per kwhr was used below as an average To derive the amount of mileage that can be driven in a day electrically, the above panels and factors were multiplied together like so: _$1.7 x 10^12 _* _250w panel_ * _1 kw _* 1 hr * _2 kwhr sol m^2/day_ * _3 mi_ $1250 panel10^3w 1 kwhr std m^2/daykwhr This produces a result of 2.04 billion miles. How does this equate to miles driven per day using an equivalent gasoline powered sedan? Assume for discussion purposes: 1)The USA uses 20 million Barrels of Oil Per Day (BOPD).In recent years, this figure has decreased to about 18 million BOPD. 2)Each barrel of oil can be refined to produce 18 gallons of gasoline.This is close to the actual production figure. To derive the amount of average car miles that can be driven in a day using gasoline, the above factors were multiplied together like so: 20 million BOPD * 18 gallons of gasoline/BOPD * 20 Miles/Gallon = 7.2 billion miles/day We drive roughly 7.200 billion miles per day. 21 million BOPD over 7.2 billion miles driven per day produces a rough factor of 3 (x10^-3).If we multiply 2.04 billion electric only miles driven times this factor, we would equate this to using about 6 million BOPD.This is roughly the amount of our oil imports. While a $1.7 trillion dollar investment in solar panels will not be a substitute for all the oil we use, it would likely reduce our energy consumption by 6 million BOPD; enough for us to be ‘energy independent’ with maybe a little conservation added. How long would it take to pay this investment off? If electricity, through net metering, is $1.00 per 10 kwhr and gasoline is $4 per gallon, and a vehicle can be driven the same amount of miles on either 10 kwhr of electricity or 1 gallon of gasoline, the difference is $3.00 which
Re: [EVDL] $1.7 Trillion reinvested (emissions free travel forever-corrected)
[corrected! And results are 10 times better!] Remember this solar investment is the upfront cost. From then on, it has paid for free transportation energy for emissions free EV's forever... Lets try this $1.7T divided by $3.30/Watt cost of solar = 500 BWatts of capacity. In Maryland each kW of solar capacity delivers about 1200 kWh of energy per year. So the result is $1.7M generates 600 B kWh per year forever. An average EV drives say 10k mi/yr at 3miles per kWh or 3,000 kWh per car (corrected) But remember this investment buys continuous FREE power from the sun FOREVER (25-to-50 yrs anyway) So the $1.7T investment would power 200 million EV's FOREVER and, we'd be 70% transportation emission free by now. BUT we didn’t. BUT, we ALSO spend over $1B per DAY for foreign oil, that is another 40 million EVs PER YEAR that can be added to the list of continuously powered (forever) emission free transportation from the sun. If we just started NOW investing the $1B per day we spend on foreign oil and spent it on solar for EV's we'd get to the same drive-forever on solar for 70% of our transportation in 5 y ears. Why aren't we doing this? Bob, WB4APR -Original Message- From: EV [mailto:ev-boun...@lists.evdl.org] On Behalf Of Peter Eckhoff via EV Sent: Thursday, June 26, 2014 7:32 AM To: Electric Vehicle Discussion List Subject: [EVDL] $1.7 Trillion reinvested The purported cost of the Iraqi War so far has been $1.7 trillion (1.7 x 10^12).Whether this is war was worth it is **not** up for discussion here. This is strictly an exercise in examining what effect those funds would have had if applied differently. I would appreciate your vetting the thoughts and numbers below. The question is: What if those funds had been used for installing solar panels for recharging a fleet of electric vehicles? What does a “back of the envelope” set of calculations indicate as to whether such an investment would be viable and possibly pursued further? Assume for discussion purposes: 1)Each panel is rated at 250 watts. (Ref: http://www.suncityenergy.com/solarpanelratings/) This is in a common size (+/- a few watts).The rating assumes a standard irradiance of 1,000 whr /m^2. 2)Each panel costs $1250 installed which is $5/watt for a commercially installed panel. Some will self install and some will have a higher commercially installed array. 3)Each panel receives an average of 2 kwhr/m^2/day.This is doable in almost all parts of the lower 48 States and Hawaii in December, the worse month for solar over all.The Puget Sound - Portland (OR) and Alaska areas are the two exceptions.Most areas referenced below are well above 2 kwhr/m^2/day; some with a factor of 3 or greater. (Ref: http://rredc.nrel.gov/solar/old_data/nsrdb/1961-1990/redbook/atlas) 4)How far will an electric vehicle go using 1 kwhr of electricity.? ·Pickups can travel roughly 2 to 3 miles. ·Sedans can travel roughly 3 to 5 miles. ·A Tesla Model S with an EPA rated range of 265 miles with a 85 kwhr pack onboard produces a calculated average about 3 miles per kwhr. ·A range of 3 miles per kwhr was used below as an average To derive the amount of mileage that can be driven in a day electrically, the above panels and factors were multiplied together like so: _$1.7 x 10^12 _* _250w panel_ * _1 kw _* 1 hr * _2 kwhr sol m^2/day_ * _3 mi_ $1250 panel10^3w 1 kwhr std m^2/daykwhr This produces a result of 2.04 billion miles. How does this equate to miles driven per day using an equivalent gasoline powered sedan? Assume for discussion purposes: 1)The USA uses 20 million Barrels of Oil Per Day (BOPD).In recent years, this figure has decreased to about 18 million BOPD. 2)Each barrel of oil can be refined to produce 18 gallons of gasoline.This is close to the actual production figure. To derive the amount of average car miles that can be driven in a day using gasoline, the above factors were multiplied together like so: 20 million BOPD * 18 gallons of gasoline/BOPD * 20 Miles/Gallon = 7.2 billion miles/day We drive roughly 7.200 billion miles per day. 21 million BOPD over 7.2 billion miles driven per day produces a rough factor of 3 (x10^-3).If we multiply 2.04 billion electric only miles driven times this factor, we would equate this to using about 6 million BOPD.This is roughly the amount of our oil imports. While a $1.7 trillion dollar investment in solar panels will not be a substitute for all the oil we use, it would likely reduce our energy consumption by 6 million BOPD; enough for us to be ‘energy independent’ with maybe a little conservation added. How long would it take to pay this investment off? If electricity, through net metering, is $1.00 per 10 kwhr and gasoline is $4 per gallon, and a vehicle can be driven the same amount of miles on either 10 kwhr of electricity or 1 gallon of gasoline, the difference is $3.00 which would
Re: [EVDL] $1.7 Trillion reinvested (emissions free travel forever-corrected)
On 06/26/2014 02:02 PM, Robert Bruninga via EV wrote: $1.7T divided by $3.30/Watt cost of solar = 500 BWatts of capacity. Around here, we are getting roof top turn key installations of around 5kw for about $2.25/watt before the income tax credit and without any local incentives. I've heard of DIY panels below $.50/watt. ___ UNSUBSCRIBE: http://www.evdl.org/help/index.html#usub http://lists.evdl.org/listinfo.cgi/ev-evdl.org For EV drag racing discussion, please use NEDRA (http://groups.yahoo.com/group/NEDRA)
Re: [EVDL] $1.7 Trillion reinvested
Big mistake! (I knew something was wrong). US peak in 2012 was 1,000,000MW (not 1000MW). So, total build-out cost would be $7.5T. Ok, that exceeds the challenge. How about just looking at coal? US peak in 2012 (same table) was about 300,000MW. The build-out to replace coal would be: 300,000MW * ($7,500M/1000MW) = 300 * $7,500M = $2,250,000M = $2.25T. That's not so far off the challenge. So we could replace 75% of US coal power plants! Who-hoo! That would pretty much eliminate the pundits' claim that EVs simply displace the CO2 output. Peri -- Original Message -- From: Peri Hartman pe...@kotatko.com To: Electric Vehicle Discussion List ev@lists.evdl.org Sent: 26-Jun-14 8:20:44 AM Subject: Re: [EVDL] $1.7 Trillion reinvested Here's a parallel way to look at it, except with wind generation: According to the US DOE, in table 1: http://www.eia.gov/forecasts/capitalcost/pdf/updated_capcost.pdf the cost to build a wind farm is $2213/kW to build + $40/kW-yr to operate. Add to that pumped storage of the same capacity: $5288/kW to build + $14.13/kW-yr to operate and you would have about $7500/kW to build + about $54/kW-yr to operate. $1.7T would build 226,000,000kW or The US used about 1000MW peak during summer of 2012 - see table 4.2.B in http://www.eia.gov/electricity/annual/html/epa_01_02.html To build out with 100% wind, that would cost: wind generation = $7500/kW to build or $7500k / MW to build 1000MW would cost 1000 * $7500k = $7,500,000k = $7,500M = $7.5B That's about 0.4% of the $1.7T. In other words, we could completely replace our existing power generation with zero-carbon production and have plenty of money left over for operations, hyper-quick chargers everywhere, and just about every other government expense conceivable! By the way, you can do the math, but wind is substantially cheaper than building nukes if you include the operating costs of nukes. (ok, now who wants to vet my math? I make lots of mistakes :) Peri -- Original Message -- From: Peter Eckhoff via EV ev@lists.evdl.org To: Electric Vehicle Discussion List ev@lists.evdl.org Sent: 26-Jun-14 4:32:21 AM Subject: [EVDL] $1.7 Trillion reinvested The purported cost of the Iraqi War so far has been $1.7 trillion (1.7 x 10^12).Whether this is war was worth it is **not** up for discussion here. This is strictly an exercise in examining what effect those funds would have had if applied differently. I would appreciate your vetting the thoughts and numbers below. The question is: What if those funds had been used for installing solar panels for recharging a fleet of electric vehicles? What does a “back of the envelope” set of calculations indicate as to whether such an investment would be viable and possibly pursued further? Assume for discussion purposes: 1)Each panel is rated at 250 watts. (Ref: http://www.suncityenergy.com/solarpanelratings/) This is in a common size (+/- a few watts).The rating assumes a standard irradiance of 1,000 whr /m^2. 2)Each panel costs $1250 installed which is $5/watt for a commercially installed panel. Some will self install and some will have a higher commercially installed array. 3)Each panel receives an average of 2 kwhr/m^2/day.This is doable in almost all parts of the lower 48 States and Hawaii in December, the worse month for solar over all.The Puget Sound - Portland (OR) and Alaska areas are the two exceptions.Most areas referenced below are well above 2 kwhr/m^2/day; some with a factor of 3 or greater. (Ref: http://rredc.nrel.gov/solar/old_data/nsrdb/1961-1990/redbook/atlas) 4)How far will an electric vehicle go using 1 kwhr of electricity.? ·Pickups can travel roughly 2 to 3 miles. ·Sedans can travel roughly 3 to 5 miles. ·A Tesla Model S with an EPA rated range of 265 miles with a 85 kwhr pack onboard produces a calculated average about 3 miles per kwhr. ·A range of 3 miles per kwhr was used below as an average To derive the amount of mileage that can be driven in a day electrically, the above panels and factors were multiplied together like so: _$1.7 x 10^12 _* _250w panel_ * _1 kw _* 1 hr * _2 kwhr sol m^2/day_ * _3 mi_ $1250 panel10^3w 1 kwhr std m^2/daykwhr This produces a result of 2.04 billion miles. How does this equate to miles driven per day using an equivalent gasoline powered sedan? Assume for discussion purposes: 1)The USA uses 20 million Barrels of Oil Per Day (BOPD).In recent years, this figure has decreased to about 18 million BOPD. 2)Each barrel of oil can be refined to produce 18 gallons of gasoline.This is close to the actual production figure. To derive the amount of average car miles that can be driven in a day using gasoline, the above factors were multiplied together like so: 20 million BOPD * 18 gallons of gasoline/BOPD * 20 Miles/Gallon = 7.2 billion miles/day We drive roughly 7.200 billion miles per day. 21 million BOPD over 7.2 billion miles