Re: Another tedious hypothetical

2005-06-09 Thread Jesse Mazer
rmiller wrote: At 11:08 PM 6/8/2005, Jesse Mazer wrote: (snip) You should instead calculate the probability that a story would contain *any* combination of meaningful words associated with the Manhattan project. This is exactly analogous to the fact that in my example, you should have been

Re: Another tedious hypothetical

2005-06-08 Thread Jesse Mazer
rmiller wrote: At 05:22 PM 6/8/2005, Jesse Mazer wrote: rmiller wrote: At 02:45 PM 6/7/2005, Jesse Mazer wrote: (snip) Of course in this example Feynman did not anticipate in advance what licence plate he'd see, but the kind of hindsight bias you are engaging in can be shown with

Re: Another tedious hypothetical

2005-06-08 Thread rmiller
At 11:08 PM 6/8/2005, Jesse Mazer wrote: (snip) You should instead calculate the probability that a story would contain *any* combination of meaningful words associated with the Manhattan project. This is exactly analogous to the fact that in my example, you should have been calculating the

Re: Another tedious hypothetical

2005-06-07 Thread Jesse Mazer
rmiller wrote: At 03:58 PM 6/6/2005, you wrote: rmiller wrote: At 03:01 PM 6/6/2005, Pete Carlton wrote: (snip) The point is, there are enough stories published in any year that it would be a trivial matter to find a few superficial resemblances between any event and a story that came

Re: Another tedious hypothetical

2005-06-07 Thread rmiller
At 02:45 PM 6/7/2005, Jesse Mazer wrote: (snip) Of course in this example Feynman did not anticipate in advance what licence plate he'd see, but the kind of hindsight bias you are engaging in can be shown with another example. Suppose you pick 100 random words out of a dictionary, and then

Re: Another tedious hypothetical

2005-06-06 Thread Bruno Marchal
I would say 0: 0. All a Coincidence (I don't see *big* coincidences) and then 5. I'm agnostic about what you talk about. I love the book by Suzanne Blackmore In search of the light because it shows parapsychology can be done seriously, but then the evidence are until today rather

RE: Another tedious hypothetical

2005-06-06 Thread Stathis Papaioannou
It sounds like an incredible coincidence, but you also have to take into account all the *other* stories which did not turn out to be anywhere near the truth. A long enough sequence of random data will always produce apparently non-random results. In fact, this seems counterintuitive to most

Re: Another tedious hypothetical

2005-06-06 Thread Pete Carlton
On Jun 5, 2005, at 11:14 PM, Bruno Marchal wrote:I would say 0: 0. All a  Coincidence (I don't see *big* coincidences) and then 5.I'm agnostic about what you talk about. I love the book by Suzanne Blackmore "In search of the light" because it shows parapsychology can be done seriously, but then

Re: Another tedious hypothetical

2005-06-06 Thread rmiller
At 03:01 PM 6/6/2005, Pete Carlton wrote: (snip) The point is, there are enough stories published in any year that it would be a trivial matter to find a few superficial resemblances between any event and a story that came before it. my second comment. . .if it's such a trivial matter, then

Re: Another tedious hypothetical

2005-06-06 Thread Pete Carlton
Jesse has it right on here, and one can go even further in this vein.  You are impressed by the relationship between one particular story and one particular event - but you hand-picked both the story and the event for discussion here because of their superficial similarities.  You challenged me to

Re: Another tedious hypothetical

2005-06-06 Thread rmiller
At 03:58 PM 6/6/2005, you wrote: rmiller wrote: At 03:01 PM 6/6/2005, Pete Carlton wrote: (snip) The point is, there are enough stories published in any year that it would be a trivial matter to find a few superficial resemblances between any event and a story that came before it. Let's

Re: Another tedious hypothetical

2005-06-06 Thread rmiller
At 06:56 PM 6/6/2005, you wrote: Jesse has it right on here, and one can go even further in this vein. You are impressed by the relationship between one particular story and one particular event - but you hand-picked both the story and the event for discussion here because of their superficial

Re: Another tedious hypothetical

2005-06-06 Thread Stathis Papaioannou
Pete Carlton wrote: Jesse has it right on here, and one can go even further in this vein. You are impressed by the relationship between one particular story and one particular event - but you hand-picked both the story and the event for discussion here because of their superficial

Another Tedious Hypothetical

2005-06-05 Thread rmiller
All, Another hypothetical. In 1939, let's say, a writer comes up with a sci-fi story, which is published the next year. It involves (let's say) a uranium bomb and a beryllium target in the Arizona desert that might blow up and cause problems for everyone. His main character is a fellow he

Another tedious hypothetical

2005-06-05 Thread rmiller
All, Another hypothetical. In 1939, let's say, a writer comes up with a sci-fi story, which is published the next year. It involves (let's say) a uranium bomb and a beryllium target in the Arizona desert that might blow up and cause problems for everyone. His main character is a fellow he

Re: Another Tedious Hypothetical

2005-06-05 Thread rmiller
At 12:31 PM 6/5/2005, rmiller wrote: A correction---the first nuclear test, was named, of course, Trinity, not The Manhattan Project. And the core of the device, which Oppenheimer called the gadget was about the size of a grapefruit. RM

RE: Another tedious hypothetical

2005-06-05 Thread Lee Corbin
Rich writes Another hypothetical. In 1939, let's say, a writer comes up with a sci-fi story, which is published the next year. It involves (let's say) a uranium bomb and a beryllium target in the Arizona desert that might blow up and cause problems for everyone. His main character is a

RE: Another Tedious Hypothetical

2005-06-05 Thread Stathis Papaioannou
In order: 2,1,5,3,4. --Stathis Papaioannou All, Another hypothetical. In 1939, let's say, a writer comes up with a sci-fi story, which is published the next year. It involves (let's say) a uranium bomb and a beryllium target in the Arizona desert that might blow up and cause problems for

RE: Another Tedious Hypothetical

2005-06-05 Thread rmiller
At 09:01 PM 6/5/2005, Stathis Papaioannou wrote: In order: 2,1,5,3,4. --Stathis Papaioannou Thanks to Lee and Stathis-- Anyone else? R.

RE: Another tedious hypothetical

2005-06-05 Thread rmiller
At 03:40 PM 6/5/2005, you wrote: RM writes (snip) Now, pick one: 1. All a Big Coincidence Proving Nothing (ABCPN) 2. The writer obviously was privy to state secrets and should have been arrested. 3. Suggests precognition of a very strange and weird sort. 4. Might fit a QM many worlds