rmiller wrote:
At 11:08 PM 6/8/2005, Jesse Mazer wrote:
(snip)
You should instead calculate the probability that a story would contain
*any* combination of meaningful words associated with the Manhattan
project. This is exactly analogous to the fact that in my example, you
should have been
At 11:08 PM 6/8/2005, Jesse Mazer wrote:
(snip)
You should instead calculate the probability that a story would contain
*any* combination of meaningful words associated with the Manhattan
project. This is exactly analogous to the fact that in my example, you
should have been calculating the pr
rmiller wrote:
At 05:22 PM 6/8/2005, Jesse Mazer wrote:
rmiller wrote:
At 02:45 PM 6/7/2005, Jesse Mazer wrote:
(snip)
Of course in this example Feynman did not anticipate in advance what
licence plate he'd see, but the kind of "hindsight bias" you are
engaging in can be shown with anot
At 05:22 PM 6/8/2005, Jesse Mazer wrote:
rmiller wrote:
At 02:45 PM 6/7/2005, Jesse Mazer wrote:
(snip)
Of course in this example Feynman did not anticipate in advance what
licence plate he'd see, but the kind of "hindsight bias" you are
engaging in can be shown with another example. Suppo
rmiller wrote:
At 02:45 PM 6/7/2005, Jesse Mazer wrote:
(snip)
Of course in this example Feynman did not anticipate in advance what
licence plate he'd see, but the kind of "hindsight bias" you are engaging
in can be shown with another example. Suppose you pick 100 random words
out of a dic
At 02:45 PM 6/7/2005, Jesse Mazer wrote:
(snip)
Of course in this example Feynman did not anticipate in advance what
licence plate he'd see, but the kind of "hindsight bias" you are engaging
in can be shown with another example. Suppose you pick 100 random words
out of a dictionary, and then
rmiller wrote:
At 03:58 PM 6/6/2005, you wrote:
rmiller wrote:
At 03:01 PM 6/6/2005, Pete Carlton wrote:
(snip)
The point is, there are enough stories published in any year that it
would be a trivial matter to find a few superficial resemblances between
any event and a story that came bef
Pete Carlton wrote:
Jesse has it right on here, and one can go even further in this vein. You
are impressed by the relationship between one particular story and one
particular event - but you hand-picked both the story and the event for
discussion here because of their superficial similar
At 06:56 PM 6/6/2005, you wrote:
Jesse has it right on here, and
one can go even further in this vein. You are impressed by the
relationship between one particular story and one particular event - but
you hand-picked both the story and the event for discussion here
because of their superficial s
At 03:58 PM 6/6/2005, you wrote:
rmiller wrote:
At 03:01 PM 6/6/2005, Pete Carlton wrote:
(snip)
The point is, there are enough stories published in any year that it
would be a trivial matter to find a few superficial resemblances between
any event and a story that came before it.
Let's
Jesse has it right on here, and one can go even further in this vein. You are impressed by the relationship between one particular story and one particular event - but you hand-picked both the story and the event for discussion here because of their superficial similarities. You challenged me to
At 03:01 PM 6/6/2005, Pete Carlton wrote:
(snip)
The point is, there are enough stories published in any year that it would
be a trivial matter to find a few superficial resemblances between any
event and a story that came before it.
my second comment. . .if it's such a trivial matter, then per
rmiller wrote:
At 03:01 PM 6/6/2005, Pete Carlton wrote:
(snip)
The point is, there are enough stories published in any year that it would
be a trivial matter to find a few superficial resemblances between any
event and a story that came before it.
Let's look a little closer at the story
At 03:01 PM 6/6/2005, Pete Carlton wrote:
(snip)
The point is, there are enough stories published in any year that it would
be a trivial matter to find a few superficial resemblances between any
event and a story that came before it.
Let's look a little closer at the story in terms of gesta
On Jun 5, 2005, at 11:14 PM, Bruno Marchal wrote:I would say 0: 0. All a Coincidence (I don't see *big* coincidences) and then 5.I'm agnostic about what you talk about. I love the book by Suzanne Blackmore "In search of the light" because it shows parapsychology can be done seriously, but then the
It sounds like an incredible coincidence, but you also have to take into
account all the *other* stories which did not turn out to be anywhere near
the truth. A long enough sequence of random data will always produce
apparently non-random results. In fact, this seems counterintuitive to most
pe
I would say 0:
0. All a Coincidence (I don't see *big* coincidences)
and then 5.
I'm agnostic about what you talk about. I love the book by Suzanne
Blackmore "In search of the light" because it shows parapsychology can
be done seriously, but then the evidence are until today rather
negati
At 03:40 PM 6/5/2005, you wrote:
RM writes
(snip)
>
> Now, pick one:
> 1. All a Big Coincidence Proving Nothing (ABCPN)
> 2. The writer obviously was privy to state secrets
and should have been arrested.
> 3. Suggests precognition of a very strange and weird sort.
> 4. Might fit a QM many w
At 09:01 PM 6/5/2005, Stathis Papaioannou wrote:
In order: 2,1,5,3,4.
--Stathis Papaioannou
Thanks to Lee and Stathis--
Anyone else?
R.
In order: 2,1,5,3,4.
--Stathis Papaioannou
All,
Another hypothetical. In 1939, let's say, a writer comes up with a sci-fi
story, which is published the next year. It involves (let's say) a uranium
bomb and a "beryllium target" in the Arizona desert that might blow up and
cause problems for
Rich writes
> Another hypothetical. In 1939, let's say, a writer comes up with a sci-fi
> story, which is published the next year. It involves (let's say) a uranium
> bomb and a "beryllium target" in the Arizona desert that might blow up and
> cause problems for everyone. His main character
At 12:31 PM 6/5/2005, rmiller wrote:
A correction---the first nuclear test, was named, of course, Trinity, not
"The Manhattan Project." And the core of the device, which Oppenheimer
called "the gadget" was about the size of a grapefruit.
RM
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