subject:"Re\: AI and Interest rates"

Re: AI and interest rates

2023-10-05 Thread smitra


On 02-10-2023 19:06, John Clark wrote:

On Mon, Oct 2, 2023 at 9:26 AM smitra  wrote:


_> Productivity increase due to AI has yet to materialize. Systems
like ChatGPT are not all that useful for the economy_


That's because GPT-4 was only introduced a few months ago, and right
now it's as stupid as it's ever going to be.  But it's inevitable that
a machine that is as smart as a man is going to make a huge impact on
the economy.



Yes, I agree. But I do think that making progress in automatizing 
hands-on work is going to prove more difficult than letting an AI do 
purely digital tasks. There is 100% freedom in the virtual environment 
an AI has to operate in, but the real world is what it is.



The reason why there has been no recession so far is because the

Biden Administration has been spending massive amounts of money to
stimulate
the economy:


Then why is the rate of inflation coming down so fast?  And why is the
market telling us it expects inflation to stay low for the next few
years at least?


I do agree with what you wrote below about the way the GOP has an is 
causing trouble. The reason why inflation is coming down fast now is a 
combination of lower energy prices plus also the FED hikes starting to 
have an effect. The stock market and the bond market are telling 
different things about what to expect, and the bond market tends to be 
right most of the time. The stock market has moved into a bubble due to 
the fast FED hikes and the fact that the FED is never going to return to 
the previous policy of zero interest rates (ZIRP) and quantitative 
easing (QE) on a permanent basis outside of a recession.


The fundamental problem was that after the 2008 financial crisis, 
central banks ended up not just temporarily implementing a ZIRP + QE 
policy, but that this became a permanent measure. Many economists had 
warned that this was bound to go wrong Sooner or later a problem would 
occur for which you would normally require a stimulus in the form of 
ZIRP and QE and because we would already be doing that, other measures 
that are much more inflationary would be require. And then curbing the 
inflation that would inevitably crop up would be extremely painful 
because that would require reversing ZRP + QE under more difficult 
conditions.


And that's pretty much what happened in the aftermath of Covid. The 
economy is now in trouble because interest rates are now much higher and 
will be kept high with only moderate rat cuts next year. Particularly 
the smaller cmpanies have lots of debt and many of them need to 
refinance next year.


Doing ZIRP + QE for over a decade has forced many smaller companies to 
take on lots of debt due to competition. A company cannot just decide to 
not take on lots of debt at low interest rates to boosts profits, 
because they would end up outcompeted by competitors who then would do 
that. If ZIRP  + QE would be a short term policy to get the economy out 
of recession then this dynamics would not be in play. But because it was 
done permanently under good economic conditions, this has caused a 
significant part of the economy to be no longer profitable without ZIRP 
+ QE.


This has then caused the stick market to move into a  bubble. The stock 
market reached its peak in late 2021 early 2022. The valuation of stocks 
is basically an extrapolation of where the economy is expected to be in 
the future. And that was the based on the expectation that ZIRP and QE 
would continue to be the FED's policy indefinitely. But the FED hiked 
rates very fast and realistically the FED is never going to return to 
ZIRO + QE. Tis means that the stock market is enormously overvalued. It 
did correct down on 2022 but then later rise sharply to current levels.


Investors don't what to lose their money, the recession didn't come as 
fast as was expected. Many traders who were short became wrong footed, 
the market was pumped up and they had to cover their shorts. But now 
reality is slowly sinking in, companies will not make the sort of 
profits that can justify the current valuation of stocks, and the market 
will end up going down. As long as the market is overvalued, all the 
investors taken together make less money per invested dollar. So, after 
some ups and downs, the market will end up going down to a low enough 
level from which it can generate reasonable returns for investors. But 
the problem is that it has to sink to very low values for that to 
happen:


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j-9yz_1mJME=1085s

This means that either the stock market has to crash, or it will end up 
going sideways for a very long time. I think the latter scenario is more 
likely, but ether way this does have consequences for the real economy, 
because the value of pensions are going to go down if the stock market 
goes down, or doesn't grow as it normally does for a long period of 
time, which then affects spending.



Saibal




By the way, under the Trump administration the
national debt

Re: AI and interest rates

2023-10-04 Thread John Clark

On Tue, Oct 3, 2023 at 5:57 PM 'spudboy...@aol.com' via Everything List <
everything-list@googlegroups.com> wrote:

*> His [Trump's] domestic and foreign policies were better than Joey's have
> been,*
>

Bullshit. Because of Trump's bungling during the Covid crisis at least half
a million Americans died unnecessarily.

Trump reneged on the Iran nuclear deal, even though he admitted they were
still in full compliance, because he said it did not permanently prevent
Iran from developing nuclear weapons and they might still do so in 10 to 25
years. But as a result of that idiotic decision we don't have to wait for
10 to 25 years, for about a year now Iran has had all the parts necessary
to build several nuclear bombs,  and if they haven't already done so (and
they probably have) they could assemble all those parts into working
devices in about two weeks.

> *> With Joey? High Inflation, *
>

For the last three months inflation has been running at  2.2%, about as low
as inflation ever gets, or ever should get.

> * > Functionally Open Borders,*
>

Trump's only suggestion on how to improve things is military airstrikes on
Mexico, just the sort of stupid thing you'd expect from Trump.

*> Threat of War with Russia*
>

Except for a couple of years in the 1990s when Russia seemed to be heading
towards democracy, there has been a constant threat of war with Russia
since 1946, today thanks to the Republican hero and Trump's best friend
Vladimir Putin, Russia is now more totalitarian than it ever was under
Khrushchev or Brezhnev, you'd have to go all the way back to Stalin to find
something comparable. Oh and by the way,  Putin's Russia started the
largest war in Europe since World War II by invading one of its neighbors .
You keep talking about China being the big baddie and long-term you may be
right, but right now Russia is the larger threat.

> *> Now John, give me your summary of Joey's triumphs? *
>

The Trump administration kept talking about "Infrastructure Week" but it
became a running joke because it was all talk, he never actually got
anything done, but Biden managed to pass a $1 trillion bill to repair
decaying roads and bridges, and improve the nations broadband Internet
service because it is currently a disgrace, the slowest of any major
industrial nation.

Biden passed the $280 billion CHIPS and Science Act to fund Basic research
and development to aid semiconductor manufacturing. And Biden is trying to
overcome intense Republican opposition to a bill that would lower
prescription drug costs and raise taxes on the super ultra mega rich.

Biden rejoined the Paris agreement on climate change on his first day in
office. Biden ended the war in Afghanistan, something that Trump had been
saying we should do for at least a decade but didn't actually do because he
was too cowardly to face the political heat that he knew it would generate.

Biden has restored America's global leadership. Trump nearly destroyed NATO
and if he had been reelected I have no doubt he would have succeeded in
doing so, but today NATO is stronger and more united than it's been in 50
years. And Biden has refused the rollover and play dead as Trump did
whenever he was confronted with Vladimir Putin, instead he is taking the
lead on imposing sanctions on Russia for its aggressive war on Ukraine.

John K ClarkSee what's on my new list at  Extropolis

ylo

>
> On progress, because of who Joey and Don are, I am not confident that
> either could give us a conversation about LLM's, QC's, and the lot? For,
> me, a wee peasant, this is the only way to fly!
>
> On Tuesday, October 3, 2023 at 07:44:34 AM EDT, John Clark <
> johnkcl...@gmail.com> wrote:
>
>
> On Mon, Oct 2, 2023 at 6:11 PM 'spudboy...@aol.com' via Everything List <
> everything-list@googlegroups.com> wrote:
>
> *> Shouldn't simply be AI, but 3D printing and perhaps, the arrival of
> Drexler's nanofabricators?*
>
>
> I agree, AI will accelerate everything.
>
> *> If it's just AI, it'll will be harnessed for the super rich alone **and
> the difference between the rich and the rest of humanity will vastly
> expand.*
>
>
> That would certainly please people like Donald Trump, but it's not going
> to happen because the super rich are irrelevant, in fact the entire human
> race is irrelevant. Like it or not it's only a matter of time before AI
> will be harnessed by AI alone. There is simply no way you can permanently
> enslave something that is much smarter than you are and who keeps getting
> smarter every day.
>
>
>
> kgs
>
>

-- 
You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups 
"Everything List" group.
To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email 
to everything-list+unsubscr...@googlegroups.com.
To view this discussion on the web visit 
https://groups.google.com/d/msgid/everything-list/CAJPayv2oPOJbB%2Bgq1TUy%2BFGGPbmDC%3DTuFPezBiAACRG-Na-u3Q%40mail.gmail.com.

Re: AI and interest rates

2023-10-03 Thread 'spudboy...@aol.com' via Everything List

His domestic and foreign policies were better than Joey's have been, that you
are giving further evidence of the non-rationality of the Dem voter-Which is
Fine! Because we are now that way also!With Joey? High Inflation, Functionally
Open Borders, Higher Crime. Threat of War with Russia.
Now John, give me your summary of Joey's triumphs?
On progress, because of who Joey and Don are, I am not confident that either
could give us a conversation about LLM's, QC's, and the lot? For, me, a wee
peasant, this is the only way to fly!
On Tuesday, October 3, 2023 at 07:44:34 AM EDT, John Clark
wrote:

On Mon, Oct 2, 2023 at 6:11 PM 'spudboy...@aol.com' via Everything List
wrote:

> Shouldn't simply be AI, but 3D printing and perhaps, the arrival of Drexler's
>nanofabricators?

I agree, AI will accelerate everything.

> If it's just AI, it'll will be harnessed for the super rich alone and the
>difference between the rich and the rest of humanity will vastly expand.

That would certainly please people like Donald Trump, but it's not going to
happen because the super rich are irrelevant, in fact the entire human race is
irrelevant. Like it or not it's only a matter of time before AI will be
harnessed by AI alone. There is simply no way you can permanently enslave
something that is much smarter than you are and who keeps getting smarter every
day.

John K Clark See what's on my new list at Extropolis
kgs

--
You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups
"Everything List" group.
To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email
to everything-list+unsubscr...@googlegroups.com.
To view this discussion on the web visit
https://groups.google.com/d/msgid/everything-list/CAJPayv0-PjxyLT5%3D2s1qNfuAgfq7xW46C31FGLa9igYsRX9SLA%40mail.gmail.com.

Re: AI and interest rates

2023-10-03 Thread John Clark

On Mon, Oct 2, 2023 at 6:11 PM 'spudboy...@aol.com' via Everything List <
everything-list@googlegroups.com> wrote:

*> Shouldn't simply be AI, but 3D printing and perhaps, the arrival of
> Drexler's nanofabricators?*

I agree, AI will accelerate everything.

*> If it's just AI, it'll will be harnessed for the super rich alone **and
> the difference between the rich and the rest of humanity will vastly
> expand.*

That would certainly please people like Donald Trump, but it's not going to
happen because the super rich are irrelevant, in fact the entire human race
is irrelevant. Like it or not it's only a matter of time before AI will be
harnessed by AI alone. There is simply no way you can permanently enslave
something that is much smarter than you are and who keeps getting smarter
every day.

John K ClarkSee what's on my new list at  Extropolis

kgs

-- 
You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups 
"Everything List" group.
To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email 
to everything-list+unsubscr...@googlegroups.com.
To view this discussion on the web visit 
https://groups.google.com/d/msgid/everything-list/CAJPayv0-PjxyLT5%3D2s1qNfuAgfq7xW46C31FGLa9igYsRX9SLA%40mail.gmail.com.

Re: AI and interest rates

2023-10-02 Thread 'spudboy...@aol.com' via Everything List

Shouldn't simply be AI, but 3D printing and perhaps, the arrival of Drexler's
nanofabricators? If it's just AI, it'll will be harnessed for the super rich
alone, and the difference between the rich and the rest of humanity will vastly
expand. An Elysium Eath.
On Monday, October 2, 2023 at 07:47:06 AM EDT, John Clark
wrote:

Events of the last year have not turned out as economists thought they would,
they thought the US was heading for a recession but that hasn't happened, and
they all thought inflation would remain stubbornly high but for the last 3
months it is only been at 2.2 %, and the Federal Reserve considers 2% to be the
perfect amount of inflation. But there's something that has surprised
economists even more, they expected interest rates to remain low but instead
they are higher than they've been in over 20 years, even higher than they were
during the 2008 global financial meltdown. What's really unprecedented is that
by analyzing the spread between the price of ordinary bonds and bonds indexed
to changes in the Consumer Price Index the market is telling us that for the
last six months investors believed inflation is under control; in the past this
has always led to long term interest rates going down, but that is not
happening. So what is different this time?

I think the difference is AI. I think the market, that is to say the collective
wisdom of investors, is telling us that in 10 years it will take far fewer
dollars to remain alive or even to achieve a middle-class lifestyle than it
takes today to do the same thing, and perhaps it won't take any dollars at all.
So a dollar today will be far more valuable to you than it will be 10 years
from now. So if I'm gonna loan you a dollar today I will demand a very high
interest rate to make it worth my while, and if you're not willing to pay it
I'll just spend that dollar on myself today.
John K Clark See what's on my new list at Extropolisicp

--
You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups
"Everything List" group.
To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email
to everything-list+unsubscr...@googlegroups.com.
To view this discussion on the web visit
https://groups.google.com/d/msgid/everything-list/CAJPayv3KUJ2A2Cyw7OjCCr1mvfM2ZG1Bwz-sv0NxZMbre89K2Q%40mail.gmail.com.

Re: AI and interest rates

2023-10-02 Thread 'spudboy...@aol.com' via Everything List

Side issue on economics. Inflation only occurs when there is no Return On
Investment, ROI. In Technology, and I will use Medical, if successful at all,
there is an immediate, intrinsic, ROI. In this manner both Keynes and Friedman
are correct! We can also achieve this via printed money aka electrons to bank's
servers, via energy, transportation, space, ad materials sciences.
In other words, cash Back! Vote up or down as you like it, but give your
reasoning if you feel it?
On Monday, October 2, 2023 at 01:06:48 PM EDT, John Clark
wrote:

On Mon, Oct 2, 2023 at 9:26 AM smitra wrote:

> Productivity increase due to AI has yet to materialize. Systems like ChatGPT
>are not all that useful for the economy

That's because GPT-4 was only introduced a few months ago, and right now it's
as stupid as it's ever going to be. But it's inevitable that a machine that is
as smart as a man is going to make a huge impact on the economy.

> The reason why there has been no recession so far is because the Biden
>Administration has been spending massive amounts of money to stimulate
the economy:

Then why is the rate of inflation coming down so fast? And why is the market
telling us it expects inflation to stay low for the next few years at least? By
the way, under the Trump administration the national debt increased by $7.8
trillion, so far the Biden administration has increased it by 4.7 trillion. And
the recent ridiculous stunt about extending the debt limit and shutting down
the government is proof that Republicans like buying expensive things just as
much as the Democrats do, the only difference is the Democrats are willing to
pay for the things they buy but the Republicans refuse to pay when the bill
comes due and then they call that fiscal responsibility. The USA is the only
country in the world where the legislature has the vote twice, first they have
to vote if they wanna buy something, and then if they decide to buy it they
have to vote again about if they're going to pay for it when they get the bill.
That's nuts.

> the hammer will still come down, it will only take a bit longer.

Economists have predicted 15 of the last 5 recessions, and the record
politicians have about predicting recessions caused by the economic policies of
the other political party is not any better.

> ChatGPT s not replacing people at the factory floor, at least not yet.

I agree, but it's only a matter of time, and I'm not talking about centuries or
even decades.
John K Clark See what's on my new list at Extropolis
h6g

--
You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups
"Everything List" group.
To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email
to everything-list+unsubscr...@googlegroups.com.
To view this discussion on the web visit
https://groups.google.com/d/msgid/everything-list/CAJPayv3Af6LogNsiQBG%3Dtv0pV%3Dg51WxoNrgq_Bg5-dmeFUgCQA%40mail.gmail.com.

Re: AI and interest rates

2023-10-02 Thread John Clark

On Mon, Oct 2, 2023 at 9:26 AM smitra  wrote:

*> Productivity increase due to AI has yet to materialize. Systems
> like ChatGPT are not all that useful for the economy*

That's because GPT-4 was only introduced a few months ago, and right now
it's as stupid as it's ever going to be.  But it's inevitable that a
machine that is as smart as a man is going to make a huge impact on the
economy.

> *> The reason why there has been no recession so far is because the
> Biden Administration has been spending massive amounts of money to
> stimulatethe economy:*

Then why is the rate of inflation coming down so fast?  And why is the
market telling us it expects inflation to stay low for the next few years
at least? By the way, under the Trump administration the national debt
increased by $7.8 trillion, so far the Biden administration has increased
it by 4.7 trillion. And the recent ridiculous stunt about extending the
debt limit and shutting down the government is proof that  Republicans like
buying expensive things just as much as the Democrats do, the only
difference is the Democrats are willing to pay for the things they buy but
the Republicans refuse to pay when the bill comes due and then they call
that fiscal responsibility. The USA is the only country in the world where
the legislature has the vote twice, first they have to vote if they wanna
buy something, and then if they decide to buy it they have to vote again
about if they're going to pay for it when they get the bill. That's nuts.

*>  the hammer will still come down, it will only take a bit longer.*

Economists have predicted 15 of the last 5 recessions, and the record
politicians have about predicting recessions caused by the economic
policies of the other political party is not any better.

> * > ChatGPT s not replacing people at the factory floor, at least not yet.*

I agree, but it's only a matter of time, and I'm not talking about
centuries or even decades.

 John K ClarkSee what's on my new list at  Extropolis

h6g

>
>

-- 
You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups 
"Everything List" group.
To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email 
to everything-list+unsubscr...@googlegroups.com.
To view this discussion on the web visit 
https://groups.google.com/d/msgid/everything-list/CAJPayv3Af6LogNsiQBG%3Dtv0pV%3Dg51WxoNrgq_Bg5-dmeFUgCQA%40mail.gmail.com.

Re: AI and interest rates

2023-10-02 Thread smitra

Productivity increase due to AI has yet to materialize. Systems like
ChatGPT are not all that useful for the economy as a whole, because if
you are a manager or programmer and you earn $300,000 per year and you
can now do more work per hour, you are not going to work less hours and
take a pay cut for working less. You are just going to do more things,
so the costs of having you employed stays the same. Productivity
measured by the rate of production of goods will not go up, because
ChatGPT s not replacing people at the factory floor, at least not yet.

For ChatGPT to boost productivity would require that the managers take a
pay cut and work less. They could then perhaps supplement their income
by doing hands-on work that's difficult to automatize on the factor
floor. But that's obviously not going to happen.

The reason why there has been no recession so far is because the Biden
Administration has been spending massive amounts of money to stimulate
the economy:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-08-06/bidenomics-boosts-the-us-economy-fanning-soft-landing-hopes-inflation-fears#xj4y7vzkg

And this in combination with the fact that many companies used the
opportunity to refinance their debts and home owners refinanced their
mortgages at low rates before the FED started to raise rates. This has
increased the lag effect of the FED hikes. But the hammer will still
come down, it will only take a bit longer. There will be companies that
get into difficulties who previously could ahve been easily saved by a a
cheap loan who now cannot get a cheap loan. So, even if refinancing is
not an issue right now, the higher rates can still bite.

The refinancing wall is, however, still going to hit hard next year and
in 2025. The FED will not have cut rates all that much unless the
economy would already have tanked. The situation looks quite bad:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0vkGjSybTLg=728s

And with bond yields having increased recently, this situation has only
gotten worse.

Saibal

On 02-10-2023 13:46, John Clark wrote:

Events of the last year have not turned out as economists thought they
would, they thought the US was heading for a recession but that hasn't
happened, and they all thought inflation would remain stubbornly high
but for the last 3 months it is only been at 2.2 %, and the Federal
Reserve considers 2% to be the perfect amount of inflation. But
there's something that has surprised economists even more, they
expected interest rates to remain low but instead they are higher than
they've been in over 20 years, even higher than they were during the
2008 global financial meltdown. What's really unprecedented is that by
analyzing the spread between the price of ordinary bonds and bonds
indexed to changes in the Consumer Price Index the market is telling
us that for the last six months investors believed inflation is under
control; in the past this has always led to long term interest rates
going down, but that is not happening. So what is different this time?

I think the difference is AI. I think the market, that is to say the
collective wisdom of investors, is telling us that in 10 years it will
take far fewer dollars to remain alive or even to achieve a
middle-class lifestyle than it takes today to do the same thing, and
perhaps it won't take any dollars at all. So a dollar today will be
far more valuable to you than it will be 10 years from now. So if I'm
gonna loan you a dollar today I will demand a very high interest rate
to make it worth my while, and if you're not willing to pay it I'll
just spend that dollar on myself today.

John K ClarkSee what's on my new list at Extropolis [1]

icp

--
You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google
Groups "Everything List" group.
To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send
an email to everything-list+unsubscr...@googlegroups.com.
To view this discussion on the web visit
https://groups.google.com/d/msgid/everything-list/CAJPayv3KUJ2A2Cyw7OjCCr1mvfM2ZG1Bwz-sv0NxZMbre89K2Q%40mail.gmail.com
[2].

Links:
--
[1] https://groups.google.com/g/extropolis
[2]
https://groups.google.com/d/msgid/everything-list/CAJPayv3KUJ2A2Cyw7OjCCr1mvfM2ZG1Bwz-sv0NxZMbre89K2Q%40mail.gmail.com?utm_medium=email_source=footer

Re: AI and Interest rates

2023-06-04 Thread John Clark

On Sun, Jun 4, 2023 at 1:51 PM Brent Meeker  wrote:

*> You need land for the solar panel power farms.*


As Freeman Dyson pointed out, you don't need land or even the Earth in
order to get useful work out of the sun.
John K ClarkSee what's on my new list at  Extropolis

dff

-- 
You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups 
"Everything List" group.
To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email 
to everything-list+unsubscr...@googlegroups.com.
To view this discussion on the web visit 
https://groups.google.com/d/msgid/everything-list/CAJPayv2prazsgsMtWq1iGSZcsNQBdZ4RosECCS%2B87QawwoPu-Q%40mail.gmail.com.

Re: AI and Interest rates

2023-06-04 Thread Brent Meeker

On 6/4/2023 3:30 AM, John Clark wrote:
On Sat, Jun 3, 2023 at 7:47 PM Stathis Papaioannou
wrote:

/> Higher productivity puts downward pressure on inflation or
causes deflation. If you believe you can buy more goods in the
future that you can today for your money, you will not spend it
today./

But you've left survival out of your thinking. Even today it would be
possible to survive on just a few hundred dollars a year, you might be
living on the streets but you'd survive, and in the future it would
only cost you a few pennies to do the same. So if you don't survive
the singularity it won't be because you don't have enough money. And
if you don't survive then money in the future will be worthless to you
so you might as well spend it today and have some fun with it.

/> you will leave it in the bank, even if they offer low interest
rates./

But that just kicks the problem upstairs. Forget a "/low interest
rate/", what will the bank invest the money you give it in that allows
it to give you even a zero interest rate and not a negative one?
Brent mentioned land being a good investment but if you could
manufacture food directly from the elements then you wouldn't need
vast amounts of land for farming and ranching, and with virtual
reality getting better and better there will be no need for sports
stadiums or movie theaters or office buildings or shopping malls or
golf courses. And Mark Twain will be proven wrong,we will be able to
make more land, they're called space settlements.

You need land for the solar panel power farms.

Brent

Re: AI and Interest rates

2023-06-03 Thread Stathis Papaioannou

On Sat, 3 Jun 2023 at 16:53, John Clark  wrote:

> I have a theory about interest rates and I'd like to know what those who
> know more about economics than I do think about it.
>
> When it comes to economic forecasting the generally accepted beliefs that
> an economy's population has is all important, and it doesn't even matter if
> that belief is true. So on the day it becomes generally accepted that the
>  AI singularity is near and a very drastic increase in productivity is
> imminent I believe there will be a BIG increase in interest rates, because
> a dollar in your pocket right now will be more important to you than a
> million dollars will be in 20 years, even if you manage to survive the
> singularity which you very will might not. And if you don't survive then
> the value of a dollar to you will be precisely zero, so you might as well
> spend it today and have a little fun and not loan it out. So regardless of
> if you believe you will survive the singularity or not, for you to be
> willing to loan me a dollar today if you were a logical you would demand
> that I give you many many more dollars tomorrow as repayment. Put it
> another way, in a few years a dollar will enable you to buy far more stuff
> than it can today, so you'd want to save your money and not lend it out
> unless you were given a very big reason to do so, such as an astronomically
> high interest-rate.
>
> If I'm right about this then that would mean those who think they are
> being conservative and safe by investing in low interest government or
> corporate bonds will be disappointed because the value of all low interest
> investments that are supposed to be safe will crash. But that leads to
> another question that I don't have a clear answer to, even if I decide to
> save my money and not loan it out, how am I supposed to safely do that?
> I'm sure some will immediately say "gold" but I have no reason to believe
> that in a post singularity world that particular metal will be
> significantly more valuable than iron. Iron is much more common than gold
> but iron is also much more useful than gold.
>

Higher productivity puts downward pressure on inflation or causes
deflation. If you believe you can buy more goods in the future that you can
today for your money, you will not spend it today. Instead, you will leave
it in the bank, even if they offer low interest rates. Central banks also
tend to lower interest rates in times if low inflation.

> --
Stathis Papaioannou

-- 
You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups 
"Everything List" group.
To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email 
to everything-list+unsubscr...@googlegroups.com.
To view this discussion on the web visit 
https://groups.google.com/d/msgid/everything-list/CAH%3D2ypUhKwgHhobeO_f1CZYsBXHuzM%2BrAJBG-vLMyWPV5gT%3DMg%40mail.gmail.com.

Re: AI and Interest rates

2023-06-03 Thread Jason Resch

Interest rates have the function of marshalling the productive resources of
an economy towards pursuit of the most economically productive ends.
Anything with an economic return less then prevailing interest rates isn't
worth taking out a loan to invest in putting resources towards that
endeavor.

When there is super intelligent AI, the AI will have an understanding of
its available resources as well as models of which endeavors to prioritize
as having the best risk adjusted rates of return, and can choose to
prioritize accordingly, and perhaps it could do so entirely freed from our
present constraints money, borrowing, or interest rates.

Jason

On Sat, Jun 3, 2023, 6:53 PM John Clark  wrote:

> I have a theory about interest rates and I'd like to know what those who
> know more about economics than I do think about it.
>
> When it comes to economic forecasting the generally accepted beliefs that
> an economy's population has is all important, and it doesn't even matter if
> that belief is true. So on the day it becomes generally accepted that the
>  AI singularity is near and a very drastic increase in productivity is
> imminent I believe there will be a BIG increase in interest rates, because
> a dollar in your pocket right now will be more important to you than a
> million dollars will be in 20 years, even if you manage to survive the
> singularity which you very will might not. And if you don't survive then
> the value of a dollar to you will be precisely zero, so you might as well
> spend it today and have a little fun and not loan it out. So regardless of
> if you believe you will survive the singularity or not, for you to be
> willing to loan me a dollar today if you were a logical you would demand
> that I give you many many more dollars tomorrow as repayment. Put it
> another way, in a few years a dollar will enable you to buy far more stuff
> than it can today, so you'd want to save your money and not lend it out
> unless you were given a very big reason to do so, such as an astronomically
> high interest-rate.
>
> If I'm right about this then that would mean those who think they are
> being conservative and safe by investing in low interest government or
> corporate bonds will be disappointed because the value of all low interest
> investments that are supposed to be safe will crash. But that leads to
> another question that I don't have a clear answer to, even if I decide to
> save my money and not loan it out, how am I supposed to safely do that?
> I'm sure some will immediately say "gold" but I have no reason to believe
> that in a post singularity world that particular metal will be
> significantly more valuable than iron. Iron is much more common than gold
> but iron is also much more useful than gold.
>
> John K Clark See what's on my new list at  Extropolis
> 
> 6bx
>
> --
> You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups
> "Everything List" group.
> To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an
> email to everything-list+unsubscr...@googlegroups.com.
> To view this discussion on the web visit
> https://groups.google.com/d/msgid/everything-list/CAJPayv0koN_ZNCan_FCo4MzyA_MtNnmpXc_6_yKjdcu94dB6kw%40mail.gmail.com
> 
> .
>

-- 
You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups 
"Everything List" group.
To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email 
to everything-list+unsubscr...@googlegroups.com.
To view this discussion on the web visit 
https://groups.google.com/d/msgid/everything-list/CA%2BBCJUgTmemgj87szwf7QQ8h8ee2jJYCi%3D_8uDLc7W42oB7eCQ%40mail.gmail.com.

Re: AI and Interest rates

2023-06-03 Thread Jason Resch

On Sun, Jun 4, 2023, 12:48 AM Brent Meeker  wrote:

> "Buy land.  They aren't making any more of it."
> --- Mark Twain
>

But perhaps the utility and scarcity of land will diminish after the
development of superhuman AI or the singularity, for any of the following
reasons:

- The potential to create more space, land, and places in virtual reality

- The diminishment of importance of location given telepresence
technologies and online transactions

- The replacement of agriculture with food synthesis, lab grown meat,
underground hydroponics, etc., or the elimination of the necessity of food
for robotic or virtual bodies which may replace our existing ones.

- The replacement of solar energy as a significant or the cheapest source
of energy as new reactor designs are created.

Jason


>
> On 6/3/2023 8:52 AM, John Clark wrote:
>
> I have a theory about interest rates and I'd like to know what those who
> know more about economics than I do think about it.
>
> When it comes to economic forecasting the generally accepted beliefs that
> an economy's population has is all important, and it doesn't even matter if
> that belief is true. So on the day it becomes generally accepted that the
>  AI singularity is near and a very drastic increase in productivity is
> imminent I believe there will be a BIG increase in interest rates, because
> a dollar in your pocket right now will be more important to you than a
> million dollars will be in 20 years, even if you manage to survive the
> singularity which you very will might not. And if you don't survive then
> the value of a dollar to you will be precisely zero, so you might as well
> spend it today and have a little fun and not loan it out. So regardless of
> if you believe you will survive the singularity or not, for you to be
> willing to loan me a dollar today if you were a logical you would demand
> that I give you many many more dollars tomorrow as repayment. Put it
> another way, in a few years a dollar will enable you to buy far more stuff
> than it can today, so you'd want to save your money and not lend it out
> unless you were given a very big reason to do so, such as an astronomically
> high interest-rate.
>
> If I'm right about this then that would mean those who think they are
> being conservative and safe by investing in low interest government or
> corporate bonds will be disappointed because the value of all low interest
> investments that are supposed to be safe will crash. But that leads to
> another question that I don't have a clear answer to, even if I decide to
> save my money and not loan it out, how am I supposed to safely do that?
> I'm sure some will immediately say "gold" but I have no reason to believe
> that in a post singularity world that particular metal will be
> significantly more valuable than iron. Iron is much more common than gold
> but iron is also much more useful than gold.
>
> John K Clark See what's on my new list at  Extropolis
> 
> 6bx
> --
> You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups
> "Everything List" group.
> To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an
> email to everything-list+unsubscr...@googlegroups.com.
> To view this discussion on the web visit
> https://groups.google.com/d/msgid/everything-list/CAJPayv0koN_ZNCan_FCo4MzyA_MtNnmpXc_6_yKjdcu94dB6kw%40mail.gmail.com
> 
> .
>
>
> --
> You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups
> "Everything List" group.
> To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an
> email to everything-list+unsubscr...@googlegroups.com.
> To view this discussion on the web visit
> https://groups.google.com/d/msgid/everything-list/890bf057-3bfe-505f-5368-6e4de8b84ffe%40gmail.com
> 
> .
>

-- 
You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups 
"Everything List" group.
To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email 
to everything-list+unsubscr...@googlegroups.com.
To view this discussion on the web visit 
https://groups.google.com/d/msgid/everything-list/CA%2BBCJUgToKtfpmQ2-9M0nvkygM1gYmTy1JROUj3Tg4LT6LbxzA%40mail.gmail.com.

Re: AI and Interest rates

2023-06-03 Thread Brent Meeker

"Buy land. They aren't making any more of it."
--- Mark Twain

On 6/3/2023 8:52 AM, John Clark wrote:
I have a theory about interest rates and I'd like to know what those
who know more about economics than I do think about it.

When it comes to economic forecasting the generally accepted beliefs
that an economy's population has is all important, and it doesn't even
matter if that belief is true. So on the day it becomes generally
accepted that the AI singularity is near and a very drastic increase
in productivity is imminent I believe there will be a BIG increase in
interest rates, because a dollar in your pocket right now will be more
important to you than a million dollars will be in 20 years, even if
you manage to survive the singularity which you very will might not.
And if you don't survive then the value of a dollar to you will be
precisely zero, so you might as well spend it today and have a little
fun and not loan it out. So regardless of if you believe you will
survive the singularity or not, for you to be willing to loan me a
dollar today if you were a logical you would demand that I give you
many many more dollars tomorrow as repayment. Put it another way, in a
few years a dollar will enable you to buy far more stuff than it can
today, so you'd want to save your money and not lend it out unless you
were given a very big reason to do so, such as an astronomically high
interest-rate.

If I'm right about this then that would mean those who think they are
being conservative and safe by investing in low interest government or
corporate bonds will be disappointed because the value of all low
interest investments that are supposed to be safe will crash. But that
leads to another question that I don't have a clear answer to, even if
I decide to save my money and not loan it out, how am I supposed to
safely do that? I'm sure some will immediately say "gold" but I have
no reason to believe that in a post singularity world that particular
metal will be significantly more valuable than iron. Iron is much more
common than gold but iron is also much more useful than gold.

John K Clark See what's on my new list at Extropolis

6bx
--
You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google
Groups "Everything List" group.
To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send
an email to everything-list+unsubscr...@googlegroups.com.
To view this discussion on the web visit
https://groups.google.com/d/msgid/everything-list/CAJPayv0koN_ZNCan_FCo4MzyA_MtNnmpXc_6_yKjdcu94dB6kw%40mail.gmail.com
.

Re: AI and interest rates

Re: AI and interest rates

Re: AI and interest rates

Re: AI and interest rates

Re: AI and interest rates

Re: AI and interest rates

Re: AI and interest rates

Re: AI and interest rates

Re: AI and Interest rates

Re: AI and Interest rates

Re: AI and Interest rates

Re: AI and Interest rates

Re: AI and Interest rates

Re: AI and Interest rates

14 matches

Site Navigation

Mail list logo

Footer information