From: David Orme-Johnson [mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED] Sent: Friday, October 05, 2007 2:32 PM To: David Orme-Johnson Subject:
Dear All, Here is a reply to the allegation found on a website that Fairfield crime increased in the 1990s, and that Fairfield is a high crime area. I will be putting this on TruthAboutTM.com. All the best, David ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- ------------------------------------------------------ Fairfield/Jefferson County 1991-1998 Crime Statistics David W. Orme-Johnson, PhD No Increase in Crime Rate in Fairfield in the 1990s. An anti-TM website presents crime data for Jefferson County Iowa for 1991-1998, claiming that the data show “an overall increase in crime,” which the website presents as evidence that the Maharishi Effect does not work. But the data do not show an increase in crime rate. Here is the data presented on the website.* Year 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 Jefferson Co. Population** 16515 16515 16513 16600 16933 16933 16992 17080 Number Group A crimes 1008 1071 1154 1081 1091 1041 994 1067 Group A crimes/100,000 6104 6485 6988 6512 6443 6148 5850 6247 * HYPERLINK "http://www.behind-the-tm-facade.org/maharishi_effect-mdefect-fairfield.htm"; http://www.behind-the-tm-facade.org/maharishi_effect-mdefect-fairfield.htm ** Note: The data is for Jefferson County, not for Fairfield, as presented on the website. Fairfield’s population is about 60% of Jefferson County. Here is graph of the same data. It does not show an “overall crime increase for the period”, as the website proclaims. Instead, it shows a basically flat crime rate trend from 1991 to 1998. Formal regression analysis supports this perception. If anything there is a negative slope of decreasing crime (beta = -.40) from 1991 to 1998. This, however, is not statistically significant (F1,6 = 1.18, p < .32), and the non-significant slope just indicates that the crime trend over the period is essentially flat, showing that there was not an increase in crime in Jefferson County in the 1990s. The “evidence” for “increasing crime rate” presented by the website is completely misleading. The website says that the average crime rate from 1991-1991 (6347.1) was higher than the rate in 1991 (6103.5). But it can be seen from the graph above, and from the regression analysis that this does not indicate an increase in crime trend. In fact, the crime rate in 1997 (5850) was lower than in 1991. Fairfield is one of the safest towns in the USA. The website further alleges that Fairfield is place with a lot of crime. On the contrary, a comparison of the violent crime rate in Fairfield from 1991-1998 shows that Fairfield’s crime rate was 34% lower than other comparable small US towns under 10,000 population. Moreover, the rate of violent crime in Fairfield is dramatically less than larger US cities-- 38% to 85% less. In fact, before 1974 when Maharishi University of Management was established in Fairfield, Fairfield’s rate of violent crime was similar to the mean of small US towns under 10,000. However, in the 30 years from 1975 to 2005 since M.U.M has been in Fairfield, the city’s violent crime rate has been lower than the mean of other small towns 90% of the time, indicating a consistent record of being one of the safest cities in America. Data for US cities are from the FBI Uniform Crime Reports, HYPERLINK "http://www.fbi.gov/ucr/ucr.htm"http://www.fbi.gov/ucr/ucr.htm. Data for Fairfield are courtesy of the Uniform Crime Reports Communications Unit staff, Washington D.C. The error bars are standard errors of the mean. David W. Orme-Johnson, Ph.D. HYPERLINK "mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED]"[EMAIL PROTECTED] HYPERLINK "http://www.truthabouttm.com/"www.TruthAboutTM.com HYPERLINK "http://www.seagroveartist.com/"www.SeagroveArtist.com 191 Dalton Dr. Seagrove Beach, FL 32459 850-231-2866 850-231-5012 Fax No virus found in this outgoing message. Checked by AVG Free Edition. Version: 7.5.488 / Virus Database: 269.14.1/1050 - Release Date: 10/4/2007 5:03 PM
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