[FairfieldLife] Re: Off topic? : recent trends that signal FF housing bubble

2005-11-16 Thread akasha_108
Best of luck to you off, may you prosper in the current housing market
and may you get your massive hallucinations under control.

under Akasha's scenario, not mine --- hahahaha, good one.


 

 
--- In FairfieldLife@yahoogroups.com, off_world_beings [EMAIL PROTECTED]
wrote:
 
  Can you bring this thread to Fairfield. ?
 
 
 I think that one of the things that would happen if Akasha's 
 scenario takes place would be that people would be out on the street 
 across the country - can't afford rent, can't afford to buy, can't 
 afford to run a car. Any rentals that work would soon turn to slums 
 since landlords would squeeze as many of the now low paying renters 
 into the houses as possible. Unemployment is high under Akasha's 
 scenario also. So milliopns of people would suddenly not be able to 
 live the life they are accustomed to . There would be not enough 
 money from taxes to pay for the police and army, and the black hole 
 of Iraq would suck up any excess. A break-down in law and order 
 would occur and corruption among police and politicians would be 
 rife. Under Akasha's scenario, not mine, The already millions of 
 dirt poor immigrants in US would now have nothing, but would take 
 the opportunity to re-organize themselves and become a volatile and 
 unpredictable force within the breaking down society. If the US 
 pulls out of Iraq before it is a stable dictatorship again, the 
 middle east will meltdown and oil prices will skyrocket. All the 
 people who have been moving to the East and West coasts of the US, 
 raising the population there, would be in a 1930's depression-like 
 situation. While the now depopulating midwest would suffer loss of 
 income from farming and other business. Oil prices would stifle the 
 midwest to some extent.
 Next (under Akasha's scenario, not mine), the Chinese would make 
 their move to start to buy or take over parts of the US based on the 
 massive debt the US owes them. The US military would be in dissarray 
 and corrupt due to lack of funding, and a better organised nation 
 will have to take control someohow (directly or indirectly) of the 
 dangerous US armeries. The greatest superpower on earth would have 
 imploded.
 
 However (under Akasha's scenario, not mine), the midwest would most 
 likely be the least affected area since it is the least populated 
 and those from the West and East coast, who could do so, would move 
 to the Midwest in droves to escape the chaos elswhere. They would 
 also make life-changing decisions and (under Akasha's scenario, not 
 mine),  masses of them would move to Fairfield seeking a better way 
 than before. Thus DIRECTLY impacting Fairfieldin a good way. 
 Fairfielders would welcome them and they would learn the ways of the 
 enlightened and house prices and business across the midwest would 
 take off to be mecca that many east and west coasters would now seek.
 
 This is the relevance to Fairfield that Akasha is trying to convey.
 
 However, how many people here think that this scenario or a version 
 of it will happen? 
 If you think some of it will happen please pinpoint which aspects 
 you think are feasible.
 
 Personally , I am with you, it is not a good place on FFL to discuss 
 in such great swaths of cut and paste articles the hypothetical 
 housing bubble bust, nor the hypothetical bird flu disaster.
 
 Off World







 Yahoo! Groups Sponsor ~-- 
Get fast access to your favorite Yahoo! Groups. Make Yahoo! your home page
http://us.click.yahoo.com/dpRU5A/wUILAA/yQLSAA/JjtolB/TM
~- 

To subscribe, send a message to:
[EMAIL PROTECTED]

Or go to: 
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/FairfieldLife/
and click 'Join This Group!' 
Yahoo! Groups Links

* To visit your group on the web, go to:
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/FairfieldLife/

* To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
[EMAIL PROTECTED]

* Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to:
http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
 




[FairfieldLife] Re: Off topic? : recent trends that signal FF housing bubble

2005-11-16 Thread akasha_108
dhamiltony2k5 [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote:

akasha_108 [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote:udio.

Hi doug,

I sense your broad frustration. That housing discussions is filling up
FFL may be a bit of an exageration. The recent thread has 18 posts.
Hardly competes with Ostrich Meat, and does not far exceed Would
You let Gates be Born or Home Recording Studio

But I agree, relevance to FF, or TMers lives, (here or there, or
anywhere) or spiritual matters are the most sought and appealing
topics on FFL. IMO, the potential housing bubble is relevant to
relevance to FF, and TMers lives. As I posted yesterday, it could have
a sizeable impact on mortgage rates (which will affect the salability
of FF housing), national employment and income (which will affect the
many FF business that have a national clientele) and potenital in and
out migration of FF. 

On the latter, as home prices in hot markets (West Coast, East Coast,
Florida, etc) and quite warm markets (many metro areas) -- people
throughout the country have the option to cash out and with the
proceeds could buy quite nice -- better tan they left, FF properties
in cash. And participate in what you have been nicely pointing out --
an ambiance and community is similar to Boulder, Ashville, etc -- but
in a smaller town context.
 
On the other hand, if the bubble deflates repidly (compared to 15-20
year slow swish) homes in many attractive (beach, mountain etc)
areas may be at 30-50% of current prices. At a percieved bottom. Many
who have cash in FF, may decide to venture out and buy at the bottom
of the market. And get some environmental ammenities they have not had
in FF. 

And a rapid bubble deflation could cause  some degree of disruption
and suffering (nothing of the scale of Off's scenarios). I always
thought compassion and assistance was part of the FF seva ethic --
perhaps not.

But I get your point. For whatever reasons, you and others percieve
the relativly small number of housing posts as filling up FFL. A
good scapegoat for the agreed demise of quality of FFL in the past
year, relative to its golden years.  

The current demise of quality of FFL relative to its golden years has
made me ponder. It may be time to move on. To find a group more in
synch with my interests. I may lurk occaisionally, but for reasons of
interest and time, I think I will moeve on.

FFL has been great. I have learned a lot. Best of Luck.   
 


 Yes, you have succeeded to fill up the FFL list with exacting
'almost  anything', as the FFL home page encourages.  Why is the topic
here?   Out on the street for a while I ask and talk to a lot of
people who do  not read FFL anymore because of the reams of unrelated
stuff like 
 this.  People would be more inclined to come here as a place if it 
 stuck to topic (FFL) a little more, but they tend not to look 
 anymore.  
 
 Can you bring this thread to Fairfield.  Like, is this disparity 
 between rents and mortgage payments why the TMO is converting its 
 properties to cash?  Or that some of the meditating community has
fled to other places and that some of the meditating community is
looking to move here as a place.  
 
 Is it a reason to dump real estate in FF?  Or buy.  What is the
trend in Fairfield?  Is the FF market unrelated local trend or national?







 Yahoo! Groups Sponsor ~-- 
Get fast access to your favorite Yahoo! Groups. Make Yahoo! your home page
http://us.click.yahoo.com/dpRU5A/wUILAA/yQLSAA/JjtolB/TM
~- 

To subscribe, send a message to:
[EMAIL PROTECTED]

Or go to: 
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/FairfieldLife/
and click 'Join This Group!' 
Yahoo! Groups Links

* To visit your group on the web, go to:
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/FairfieldLife/

* To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
[EMAIL PROTECTED]

* Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to:
http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
 




[FairfieldLife] Re: Foreign Investors Lose Appetite for Treasuries

2005-11-15 Thread akasha_108
--- In FairfieldLife@yahoogroups.com, off_world_beings [EMAIL PROTECTED]
wrote:

 --- In FairfieldLife@yahoogroups.com, akasha_108 [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote:
 
  This, if a continuing trend, would signal a trend in the
  (long-anticipated) rise of long term bond rates -- the solution to
  the conundrum Fed Chariman Greenspan has been commenting on for
some time - the flattening of the yield cure -- the rise in short term
rates (that the Fed can highly influence) while long-term rates (upon
-- which fixed mortgage rates are based -- and the periodic 
adjustment in ARMS are pegged) are flat or declining
  
  Steadily rising mortgage rates may be trigger for housing price
  deflation --- (the bursting of the housing bubble) given that it
has contorted itself to such unsustainable levels. 
 
 
 and most have a cap of how much they can rise 
 above the initial rate. So if you have an 8% rate then, under the 
 worst case scenario, your rate would go to 14% and that would be the 
 highest allowed by law. Therefore the mortgage rate increase is not
as dire as people think. It is not like your rate could go up to 20%
or  30% or something. Are you aware of this?

No one is predicting 30% rates. But do you realize what an additional
6 % points would do to the housing market? (btw, my experience with
ARMS is the lifetime cap is higher than 6%, but lets use your figures.)

Current rates are approaching 6%. So lets look at buying a house with
an arm at 6%, and then what happens in 3 years if they rise to 12%.
Both to the buyer, and the whole housing maket.

Lets assume 20% down, and  the buyer maxes out the % of income lenders
wil usually allow for a mortgage, 30%. So a bloke making 96k a year,
could afford a 500,000 house, if he ponied up 100k down. Monthly
payments would be just short of $2400/month. 28,800 annually. Thats
30% of his pre-tax income.

Now if his ARM goes to 12%, his payments become 4,114 a month and  
49,373. per year. Thats now 51% of his income. A pretty big chunk. If
taxes after deductions average about 24%, and he puts 10% in a 401k,
then he has about 15% of his income 1 in 6 dollars to buy food, car,
clothes, vacations, additional health, entertainment, etc. A bit of a
pinch. 

If the ARMS lifetime cap were 9% -- more real world I believe than 6%,
then 63% of income goes to house payments. After taxes and 401k, he
has 3% of gross income to spend on  food, car, clothes, vacations,
additional health, entertainment, etc.

But the news gets much worse . When he bought his house, people in his
income range could afford a 500k house, with 20% down. If interest
rates rose by 6% points, the same range buyers could only afford a
290k house -- a 42% drop. And the same happens to all ranged of buyers. 

Suddenly, buyers can only afford and qualify for 58% of the cost of a
house they could three years before. Thus, they bid at their max.
Sellers begin to lower prices to match demand and in time, prices of
comps for the blokes 500 k house are now in the $290 range. If he
sells, he loses his down payment, plus owes the lender $110k extra.
Well, he could walk away you say. Sure. And ruin his credit. And he
would still lose his 100 k down. And the lender would forgive the
remaining loan of 110k after it forclosed. But the IRS counts that as
income and the guy would pay taxes on that 110k.

And long term rates that new buyers face are not capped. So if they
rose 9 % points over todays  rate, buyers would be able to buy only
about 47% of the price of a house they could when rates were at 6%.
The market corrects, and prices approach 50% of their former recent
value. 

And markets may overcorrect, as people are forced to dump property.
Thus prices could even go down further. And all this just from a jump
in interest rates.

But since the economy has been fueled by spending from home equity
loans based on recent appreciation, and construction spending, this
would halt suddenly if housing prices drop. The economy could go into
a sharp recession. Employment rates would fall. Thus there would be
less buyers than before -- driving prices even lower. 

So the art 





 Yahoo! Groups Sponsor ~-- 
Get fast access to your favorite Yahoo! Groups. Make Yahoo! your home page
http://us.click.yahoo.com/dpRU5A/wUILAA/yQLSAA/JjtolB/TM
~- 

To subscribe, send a message to:
[EMAIL PROTECTED]

Or go to: 
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/FairfieldLife/
and click 'Join This Group!' 
Yahoo! Groups Links

* To visit your group on the web, go to:
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/FairfieldLife/

* To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
[EMAIL PROTECTED]

* Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to:
http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
 




[FairfieldLife] Re: Study cites recent trends that signal housing bubble

2005-11-15 Thread akasha_108
--- In FairfieldLife@yahoogroups.com, off_world_beings [EMAIL PROTECTED]
wrote:

 --- In FairfieldLife@yahoogroups.com, akasha_108 [EMAIL PROTECTED] 
 wrote:
 
  Per recent housing price discussion, a new study highlights three 
 key
  factors that distinguish the current pruce surge and the 
 traditional
  housing price cycle -- indicating a potential bubble.
  
  ---
  Study cites recent trends that signal housing bubble
  
  Washington, DC - Recent trends in the housing market suggest a
  dangerous housing bubble, rather than a run-up caused by 
 fundamental
  factors such as higher incomes and population growth, according to 
 a
  new study by the Center for Economic and Policy Research (CEPR).
  
  The report, Will a Bursting Bubble Trouble Bernanke? The Evidence 
 for
  a Housing Bubble, cites three trends in the housing market that
  suggest an unsustainable increase in house prices: 1) A sharp
  divergence between house sale prices and rents; 
 
 
 No, in the past rents were too close to the cost of buying a house, 
 now it is  more expensive to buy a house than to rent, and this is a 
 normal market correction. Normal.

Huh? It is normal, the market is in equillibrium, when rents =
mortgage payments (after tax, after homeowner costs). The fact that
rents are at or below 50% of mortgage payments in many areas indicates
that the housing market is seriously out of what and a correction is
probably to bring prices in line with rents and to bring affordability
from  15% in many areas back to 50% or more.
 
 
 2) An extraordinary
  jump in the rate of housing construction; 
 
 Only in parts of the country, where there has been an increase in 
 jobs. Normal.


The construction increases have been in areas where housing prices
have risen sharply. Contributing to a potential  emerging over-supply
situation -- that will put downward pressure on prices.
 
 
   3) A sharp decline in
  the savings rate, driven by a housing wealth effect.
 

This means people have been drawing heavily on home equity loans
supported by increased paper profits in the recent rises equity in
their homes. This means people are spending more, as a % of income,
thus savings rates are declining -- a bad thing for future interest
rates and productivity.

 This means people have less savings than they had when they were 
 renting and were pouring $10 to 20,000 a year down the drain in 
 rent. 

People either rent property or rent money to buy property. We are all
renters. 

In initial years of a mortgage, only about 15% of mortgage payments go
towards equity -- the rest is interest.

The primary driver of equity build up for buyers is home appreciation
-- which all the fundamentals in the market point to leveling off or
declining.
 
If one can rent the same property for 1500/mo, rather than buy it with
a mortgage of 3000/month, the renter is saving $1500 / month. The
buyer is pouring money down the drain unless home prices apprciate.
But there are strong indications that that train will not be back in
town for 5-15 years.







 Yahoo! Groups Sponsor ~-- 
Get fast access to your favorite Yahoo! Groups. Make Yahoo! your home page
http://us.click.yahoo.com/dpRU5A/wUILAA/yQLSAA/JjtolB/TM
~- 

To subscribe, send a message to:
[EMAIL PROTECTED]

Or go to: 
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/FairfieldLife/
and click 'Join This Group!' 
Yahoo! Groups Links

* To visit your group on the web, go to:
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/FairfieldLife/

* To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
[EMAIL PROTECTED]

* Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to:
http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
 




[FairfieldLife] Re: Study cites recent trends that signal housing bubble

2005-11-15 Thread akasha_108
--- In FairfieldLife@yahoogroups.com, [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote:
 
 lets leave  the national housing picture to individual writings but
 NOT this form PLEASE , as NOT of general interest.

Perhaps you can simple delete or ignore such if they are not of
personal  interest. Many posts do not appeal to all readers.

Is katrina, the tsunami or bird flu purely a FF issue? Many national
and international issues affect FF -- as well as the large number of
FFL participants who no longer live in FF. 

The potential emerging housing bubble and related drivers, could
strongly affect FF  interest rates, home sales and prices, employment
and income levels, migration in and out of FF, gov debt, social
security reform and tax rates. 









 Yahoo! Groups Sponsor ~-- 
Get fast access to your favorite Yahoo! Groups. Make Yahoo! your home page
http://us.click.yahoo.com/dpRU5A/wUILAA/yQLSAA/JjtolB/TM
~- 

To subscribe, send a message to:
[EMAIL PROTECTED]

Or go to: 
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/FairfieldLife/
and click 'Join This Group!' 
Yahoo! Groups Links

* To visit your group on the web, go to:
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/FairfieldLife/

* To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
[EMAIL PROTECTED]

* Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to:
http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
 




[FairfieldLife] Re: Study cites recent trends that signal housing bubble

2005-11-15 Thread akasha_108
--- In FairfieldLife@yahoogroups.com, jim_flanegin [EMAIL PROTECTED]
wrote:

 --- In FairfieldLife@yahoogroups.com, akasha_108 [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote:
 
 big snip 
 
 If one can rent the same property for 1500/mo, rather than buy it with
  a mortgage of 3000/month, the renter is saving $1500 / month. The
  buyer is pouring money down the drain unless home prices apprciate.
  But there are strong indications that that train will not be back in
  town for 5-15 years.
 
 The one thing overlooked here is a measure of security after the 
 mortgage is substantially paid off- In a rapidly developing area, and 
 I know of people caught in this trap here, rentals may be converted to 
 condos, or demolished for housing, leaving the renters, as seniors no 
 where to go, except leave an area where they have established friends 
 and costs. I understand we are all renters, but there is definitely 
 more control over our assets if we buy, i.e. rent money from the bank.


Sure, home ownership has other non-monetry benefits. I like owning,
and planting a garden, and being able to tear down a inside wall if I
want.

But ownership has some burdens too. Several times I had job offers in
other areas, but moving/ selling my home etc was a big hurdle. Owning
ties you to an area. 

And i currently rent a house now. At about 25% of the cost to buy. The
yard sprung a big leak. I was glad to have the owner deal with it.

And sure, with the condo conversion craze -- soon to end I think as we
sink in a glut of oversupply -- can force renters to move. One has
less control as a renter. But we are in a renters market now. When
rents are so much below mortgages, it gives renters power, -- and
other options. Though, as you point out, it may mean moving out if teh
neighborhood.

So there are tradeoffs. My main point is that the price apprciation
bandwagon may be over for some time -- and that requires rethinking a
lot of conventional wisdom and observed longtime trends. 






 Yahoo! Groups Sponsor ~-- 
Get fast access to your favorite Yahoo! Groups. Make Yahoo! your home page
http://us.click.yahoo.com/dpRU5A/wUILAA/yQLSAA/JjtolB/TM
~- 

To subscribe, send a message to:
[EMAIL PROTECTED]

Or go to: 
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/FairfieldLife/
and click 'Join This Group!' 
Yahoo! Groups Links

* To visit your group on the web, go to:
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/FairfieldLife/

* To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
[EMAIL PROTECTED]

* Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to:
http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
 




[FairfieldLife] Re: Study cites recent trends that signal housing bubble

2005-11-15 Thread akasha_108
--- In FairfieldLife@yahoogroups.com, off_world_beings [EMAIL PROTECTED]
wrote:

 
   No, in the past rents were too close to the cost of buying a 
 house, 
   now it is  more expensive to buy a house than to rent, and this 
 is a  normal market correction. Normal.
  
  Huh? It is normal, the market is in equillibrium, when rents =
  mortgage payments (after tax, after homeowner costs). The fact
that rents are at or below 50% of mortgage payments in many areas 
 indicates  that the housing market is seriously out of what and a
correction
 
 
 No it doesn't. It has always been the case that it is cheaper to 
 rent than to buy. If someone gets a bit better job and perhaps works 
 a bit harder, they may say to themselves it is worth it, so that I 
 can buy my own place and they will go ahead and do it. A lot of 
 people rent because they want quality time and not be workaholics 
 and they are happy that way. Others want to work a bit harder or 
 focus on increasing income, and then buy a house. This is the way it 
 has always been.


We appear to be talking two different things. I am referring to the
disparity of rent and mortgage payments for the SAME property, the
same exact house. 
 
On the other hand, sure, one may live in a multi-family apartment, and
decide to move to an new neighborhood, with a yard, probably better
schools, more square footage, and sure, the mortgage payment will be
more than the rent. But the property is also much more substantial. 
I am NOT referring to this.

I am referring to the disparity of rent and mortgage payments for the
SAME property, the same exact house. That rents and mortgages would
stay sharply diverged in equillibrium defies all economic logic and
experience.  See the following from the article -- echoed in many
other sources:

The Divergence in House Sale Prices and Rents

While house sale prices and rents have occasionally
drifted apart for periods of time, the difference in their
rates of inflation from 1955 to 1995 averaged less than
0.42 percentage points.7 The divergence in these two
series since 1997 is unprecedented. The House Price
Index (HPI) has increased by 51 percentage points more
than the rent index over the last eight years as shown in

7 The ownership price data use the home purchase component of the
consumer price index (CPI) prior to 1975, an average of the inflation
rate in the home purchase component and the House Price Index
from 1975 until 1982, when the home purchase series was
discontinued, and the Home Price Index for years after 1982. The
rental index is the CPI rent index. The CPI rent index includes some
utilities, which complicates the comparison during periods of rapidly
rising or falling energy prices.

This divergence is also readily visible in the metropolitan
area housing price data, as all the areas that have
experienced large increases in house prices have also seen
large divergences between house sale prices and rents.
While it is reasonable to expect that rents and house
sale prices would not rise at exactly the same pace if
there were fundamental factors pushing up prices, rents
should continue to rise until they have come close to
catching up with house sale prices. This has not happened
in the areas with rapid house price increase. In most, the
pace of rental inflation has slowed in recent years, and
in some of these markets rents have actually been falling
in real terms in the last year. For example, in the last
year, real rents have fallen by 2.3 percent, 1.7 percent,
and 0.9 percent in San Francisco, Boston, and Seattle,
respectively.

There have been periods in the past in which local
markets have seen large divergences between house sale
prices and rents. In almost every case these divergences
were followed by a sharp fall in house sale prices. 

As can be seen, of the 20 largest percentage
points gaps between the run-up in house sale
prices and rental prices, 14 have occurred in
the last 8 years. In the 4 of the 6 cases on
this list where there was a large gap in the
years prior to 1997, there was a large
subsequent decline in real house prices. In
the case of Boston home prices fell by 24%.
In the case of New York, prices fell by 22
percent. On the other hand, prices in
Portland continued to rise. However, the
initial eight-year run-up in prices in Portland
ends in 1995, just as the nationwide boom
in housing prices begins. Seattle is the only
city on this list where there was a large gap
developing between house sale prices and
rents, prior to the current run-up, where there
was not a subsequent plunge in house sale
prices.

The evidence in Table 1 suggests that large
gaps between the rate of increase in house
sale prices and rents were relatively rare, prior
to the post 1997 run-up. Furthermore, in
most of the cases where such gaps arose in
the past, they were followed by sharp declines
in real house sale prices. This evidence is
consistent with the view that the sharp runup
in house sale prices in many metropolitan

[FairfieldLife] Re: Study cites recent trends that signal housing bubble

2005-11-15 Thread akasha_108
off_world_beings [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote:

  We appear to be talking two different things. I am referring to
the disparity of rent and mortgage payments for the SAME property, the
  same exact house. 
  
  On the other hand, sure, one may live in a multi-family apartment, 
 and decide to move to an new neighborhood, with a yard, probably
better schools, more square footage, and sure, the mortgage payment
will  be  more than the rent. But the property is also much more 
 substantial. 

 
 Oh, ok. All you are talking about is how one area becomes harder to 
 live in for the working people there. This happens in many places. 


NO. Thats not the phenomenon that I am talking about. I am refering to
most major housing markets across the US where there is a strong
divergence for rents vs mortgages for the same properties. The
divergence is unprecedended. It is is one of the things strongly
signaling a leveling or decline in US housing prices -- at least in
major west coast, east coast and florida markets. 

This  and other factors are:

1) Unprecedented divergence of rent from mortgages (for gpropgaerty)
2) Unprecedented lack of affordibility of housing. In the SF Bay area
only 15% of new buyers qualify for the median priced home.)
3) Unprecedented levels of new construction in major markets which ia
not tied to population growth.
4) Unprecedented holdings of 10 year Treasuries -- the bench mark for
US mortgage rates by foreign investors, the leading one being the
Chinese -- who are begining low reduce holdings, which will result in
higher mortgage rates.
5) Unprecedented use creative financing for home buyers -- which makes
them very vulnerable to interest rate increases.
6) Leveling or declining prices in major housing markets beginning. 


 The Lake District in England is pretty much impossible for anyone 
 not on a fairly high income to live there now. They would have to 
 commute. 

So what? This has little or nothing to what I am referring to.

 Nothing new in this phenomena. Happens in US also. But it 
 is not an across the board National phenomena, 

What I am referring to is across the board in major markets.








 Yahoo! Groups Sponsor ~-- 
Get fast access to your favorite Yahoo! Groups. Make Yahoo! your home page
http://us.click.yahoo.com/dpRU5A/wUILAA/yQLSAA/JjtolB/TM
~- 

To subscribe, send a message to:
[EMAIL PROTECTED]

Or go to: 
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/FairfieldLife/
and click 'Join This Group!' 
Yahoo! Groups Links

* To visit your group on the web, go to:
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/FairfieldLife/

* To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
[EMAIL PROTECTED]

* Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to:
http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
 




[FairfieldLife] Re: Fiscal train wreck feared

2005-11-15 Thread akasha_108
--- In FairfieldLife@yahoogroups.com, authfriend [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote:

 --- In FairfieldLife@yahoogroups.com, anonymousff [EMAIL PROTECTED] 
 wrote:
 
  On the cover of my local newspaper today (big city in a big state)
  is the headline, Fiscal train wreck feared: Experts say lurking 
  U.S. crisis may spur market plunge, pension losses, lower standard 
  of living.
 
 Reported on CNN this afternoon as well, very
 gloomily.

Yes.

Following is one of the gloomiest, yet most credibly sourced (the
people cited for comments) on the economy -- the housing bubble being 
the major anchor downward.

--
http://www.signonsandiego.com/news/business/2005-1315-wallmain.html

Housing bubble's burst could cost 1 million jobs and cause a
recession, experts say 

NEW YORK – Much of the nation has had a lovely real estate boom for
the past five years, but the house party is almost over and the
cleanup won't be pretty.

That's the word from economists and investors who have watched housing
prices march ever higher.

The collapse of the housing bubble will throw the economy into a
recession, and quite likely a severe recession, warned a July report
by the Center for Economic and Policy Research.

In recent weeks, many major investment firms have concurred. Said a
Lehman Brothers report, (A) turn in the housing market is central to
our economic forecast. 

The demographic story behind the housing market boom, as we always
thought, was a giant hoax, wrote Merrill Lynch  Co.'s North American
Economist, David Rosenberg, in a recent report.

If housing prices decline sharply, the effects could be broad. Lehman
estimates one-third of the past year's U.S. economic growth was a
consequence of the housing boom. Housing construction is equal to 5
percent of the national economy.

A downturn in housing could mean more than 1.3 million lost jobs,
Goldman Sachs Group Inc. predicts, bumping up the national
unemployment rate by 1 percent and the unemployment rate in house-mad
California by 2 percent. Those numbers don't include likely job cuts
in housing-dependent businesses, such as banking, furniture and
building materials.

The Center for Economic and Policy Research predicts worse, saying a
bubble burst would mean the loss of 5 million to 6.3 million jobs.

The housing run-up has financed consumer spending, creating more than
$5 trillion in bubble wealth, the center estimates. Consumers have
used cash-out mortgages to pay for everything from new kitchens to
college tuition.

A final nightmare scenario: A federal bailout of the mortgage market
is likely if housing crashes, the center predicts. So, if corporate
pension funds continue to falter and this dire prediction does come
true, the Feds could conceivably be holding your mortgage and your
pension.

While there's disagreement on what a downturn will mean, it's widely
held that a number of factors could bring prices down. A decline in
prices will track interest rates: If rates go up sharply, housing
prices will plummet, said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Economy.com,
an independent provider of financial research. If rates increase
slowly, housing prices may ease gradually.

Others point to simple supply and demand. Bubbles have their own
psychology – a neighbor tells you at a party that her house has
tripled in value and you feel like an idiot for renting – but supply
and demand operates on logic, which has to kick in at some point.

The supply and demand picture for housing looks out of whack. For six
straight months, ending in September, builders started work on more
than 2 million new homes. This has only happened three other times in
the postwar period, according to Merrill Lynch: 1971 to 1973, 1977 to
1978 and early 1984.

Those periods were fundamentally different from today in at least one
respect: More people were forming households. Household formation is
the growth rate in the number of households and it's boosted by new
immigration and twenty-somethings leaving their parents' homes. It is
currently half what it was for most of those peak periods.

At no time in the past three decades has the gap between household
formation and housing starts been as wide as it has been over the past
12 to 24 months, Rosenberg wrote. We've become accustomed to hearing
about how housing is in a new paradigm, that the fundamentals are
sound, so on and so forth. But please, just don't tell me that the
sector has managed to divorce itself from supply and demand realities.

He points out that the number of households in the group most likely
to buy a home, 25- to 44-year-olds, fell 2 percent last year, a record
decline.

Another indicator, unsold homes sitting on the market, also points
down. The ratio of inventories to sales has been rising rapidly in
recent months and now stands at its highest level since 1996,
according to Wachovia Corp.

Rents provide more evidence of an imbalance between supply and demand.
Since World War II ended, sale prices for homes have generally kept

[FairfieldLife] Re: Fiscal train wreck feared

2005-11-15 Thread akasha_108
--- In FairfieldLife@yahoogroups.com, jim_flanegin [EMAIL PROTECTED]
wrote:

 --- In FairfieldLife@yahoogroups.com, authfriend [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote:
 
  --- In FairfieldLife@yahoogroups.com, anonymousff [EMAIL PROTECTED] 
  wrote:
  
   On the cover of my local newspaper today (big city in a big state)
   is the headline, Fiscal train wreck feared: Experts say lurking 
   U.S. crisis may spur market plunge, pension losses, lower standard 
   of living.
  
  Reported on CNN this afternoon as well, very
  gloomily.
 
 
 Yes, the news organizations thrive on conflict and failure. All of 
 this; the 'bird flu', and bad this and bad that, and be afraid of
this and be afraid of that, is so *incredibly* selective.
 
,,,
 I'm declaring it a massive conspiracy of muddy consciousness; the 
 hideousness of small minds. 
 
 Not to ignore what is, but to no longer blow it out of proportion,
see ourselves so often as powerless victims, as occupants of a large, 
fearful cesspool, as 90% goners. 

Well, that doesnt mean there are no large global problems. One can
stick their head in the sand of bliss (oh, just feel the bliss) or
attribute them to neo-con conspiracies (the Rumsfeld profit scam from
bird flu is one of the funnier from the aluminum beanie crowd)  OR,
recognize or at least be cognizant of  some real threats.

Bliss can still be maintained with the recognition of national and
gloabal scale the threats.









 Yahoo! Groups Sponsor ~-- 
Get fast access to your favorite Yahoo! Groups. Make Yahoo! your home page
http://us.click.yahoo.com/dpRU5A/wUILAA/yQLSAA/JjtolB/TM
~- 

To subscribe, send a message to:
[EMAIL PROTECTED]

Or go to: 
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/FairfieldLife/
and click 'Join This Group!' 
Yahoo! Groups Links

* To visit your group on the web, go to:
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/FairfieldLife/

* To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
[EMAIL PROTECTED]

* Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to:
http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
 




[FairfieldLife] The Long-Run Relationship between House Prices and Rents

2005-11-15 Thread akasha_108
The Long-Run Relationship between
House Prices and Rents
Joshua Gallin, Federal Reserve Board 
February 2005
Abstract
I show that when house prices are high relative to rents (that is,
when the rent-price ratio is low) changes in real rents tend to be
larger than usual and changes in real prices tend to be smaller than
usual. Standard error-correction models provide inconclusive results
about the predictive power of the rent-price ratio at a quarterly
frequency. I use a long-horizon regression approach to show that the
rent-price ratio helps predict changes in real rents and real prices
over three-year periods. This result withstands the inclusion of a
measure of the user cost of capital. I show that a long-horizon
regression approach can yield biased estimates of the degree of error
correction if prices have a unit root but do not follow a random walk.
I construct bootstrap distributions to conduct appropriate inference
in the presence of this bias. The results lend empirical support to
the view that the rent-price ratio is an indicator of valuation in the
housing market.

http://www.frbatlanta.org/news/conferen/housing2005/gallin.pdf





 Yahoo! Groups Sponsor ~-- 
Get fast access to your favorite Yahoo! Groups. Make Yahoo! your home page
http://us.click.yahoo.com/dpRU5A/wUILAA/yQLSAA/JjtolB/TM
~- 

To subscribe, send a message to:
[EMAIL PROTECTED]

Or go to: 
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/FairfieldLife/
and click 'Join This Group!' 
Yahoo! Groups Links

* To visit your group on the web, go to:
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/FairfieldLife/

* To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
[EMAIL PROTECTED]

* Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to:
http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
 




[FairfieldLife] Re: Earth turns around the sun not the other way: (How MMY sold a diamond (TM) f

2005-11-14 Thread akasha_108
--- In FairfieldLife@yahoogroups.com, L B Shriver [EMAIL PROTECTED]
wrote:

 --- In FairfieldLife@yahoogroups.com, authfriend [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote:
 
 snip
  
  As noted, Shankar had broken with the TMO sometime not
  long prior to 1994, so the sweet poison warning
  would have had to have been issued at some point in
  between then and 1998.
 
 
 
 1993 at the DC course.
 
 L B S


Born in 1956 in Papanasam, India, His Holiness Sri Sri Ravi Shankar
studied with many renowned spiritual masters and became a scholar of
Vedic Literature. By the age of seventeen, he obtained an Advanced
Degree in Modern Physics.

In 1982, His Holiness Sri Sri Ravi Shankar founded the Art of Living
Foundation

http://www.artofliving.org/founder.html


In 1982, he started the Art of Living Foundation, a United Nations NGO
and introduced to the world 'Sudarshan Kriya technique'—a unique
breathing process, which removes stress and negative toxins from the
body by rejuvenating each and every cell. The Foundation aims at
fostering health at every conceivable human level-mental, physical,
emotional as well as spiritual.

http://www.webindia123.com/personal/religious/sriravi.htm



I took his basic course with him in 1994 or 95. By then, it was quite
a mature movement -- in that some friends had been to india with him
4-5 years or more previously, lots of people on courses, including
many former initiators, had been with him for a long time -- 6,7 years +






 Yahoo! Groups Sponsor ~-- 
Get fast access to your favorite Yahoo! Groups. Make Yahoo! your home page
http://us.click.yahoo.com/dpRU5A/wUILAA/yQLSAA/JjtolB/TM
~- 

To subscribe, send a message to:
[EMAIL PROTECTED]

Or go to: 
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/FairfieldLife/
and click 'Join This Group!' 
Yahoo! Groups Links

* To visit your group on the web, go to:
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/FairfieldLife/

* To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
[EMAIL PROTECTED]

* Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to:
http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
 




[FairfieldLife] Re: Sugar-Coated Poison: Earth turns around the sun not the other way: (How MMY

2005-11-14 Thread akasha_108
--- In FairfieldLife@yahoogroups.com, jim_flanegin [EMAIL PROTECTED]
wrote:
 Or were there specifics with regard to 
 the sugar coated poison thing? Hell of a label by the way...


Who does the poison kill? 






 Yahoo! Groups Sponsor ~-- 
Get fast access to your favorite Yahoo! Groups. Make Yahoo! your home page
http://us.click.yahoo.com/dpRU5A/wUILAA/yQLSAA/JjtolB/TM
~- 

To subscribe, send a message to:
[EMAIL PROTECTED]

Or go to: 
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/FairfieldLife/
and click 'Join This Group!' 
Yahoo! Groups Links

* To visit your group on the web, go to:
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/FairfieldLife/

* To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
[EMAIL PROTECTED]

* Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to:
http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
 





[FairfieldLife] Re: Directory of Active Fairfield Spiritual Practice Groups

2005-11-14 Thread akasha_108
--- In FairfieldLife@yahoogroups.com, Rick Archer [EMAIL PROTECTED]
wrote:

 Directory of Active Fairfield Spiritual Practice Groups
  
 Outside of Fairfield, people intently ask, ³What is going on in
Fairfield?²
 The spiritual, utopian side of Fairfield is something they are
wondering about. Fairfield has become recognized as a spiritual Mecca
of sorts,  ranking with Sedona, Arizona, Boulder and Crestone,
Colorado, Ashville,  North Carolina and the like. 

Though, for better or worse, FF is not listed in Hippie Havens, but
all of the above are. 

Regardless, it provides some insight, or at least POVs about the above
places and many more. 

http://www.hippy.com/havens.htm







 Yahoo! Groups Sponsor ~-- 
Get fast access to your favorite Yahoo! Groups. Make Yahoo! your home page
http://us.click.yahoo.com/dpRU5A/wUILAA/yQLSAA/JjtolB/TM
~- 

To subscribe, send a message to:
[EMAIL PROTECTED]

Or go to: 
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/FairfieldLife/
and click 'Join This Group!' 
Yahoo! Groups Links

* To visit your group on the web, go to:
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/FairfieldLife/

* To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
[EMAIL PROTECTED]

* Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to:
http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
 




[FairfieldLife] The Days of Our Lives (Youth)

2005-11-14 Thread akasha_108
http://www.hippy.com/php/article-15.html

I find timelines can be interesting -- jogging memories of what we
were doing when these events occurred --  and can help in
reconstrucing other timelines like the TMO (this course had to be near
these dates because I remember the announcement about ... dying.

A few key years (many more on link)



1967
Jan 14 - Gathering of the Tribes, First Human Be-In, 20,000, S.F.
Jan 27 - US, USSR, UK sign treaty banning nuclear  weapons in space
Feb - 25,000 US troops sent to Cambodian border
Feb - Beatles release Strawberry Fields Forever, Penny Lane, Michelle,
Yesterday
Mar - Scientist report LSD causes chromosome damage (never validated).
Mar - The Berkeley Barb starts the smokable banana rumor (based upon
Donovan's song Mellow Yellow)
Mar 3 - Alice B. Toklas dies
Mar 18 - First U.S. supertanker wreck. Torrey Canyon spills 90,000
tons of oil onto English shores
Mar 26 - Be-In at Central Park in NY. 10,000 attend
Apr 5 - Grayline starts hippie tours of Haight/Ashbury
Apr 10 - Vietnam Week starts.  Draft card burnings and anti-draft
demonstrations
Apr 15 - Anti-Vietnam War protest. 400,000 march from Central Park to
UN. Speeches by Martin Luther King, Stokely Carmichael and Dr.
Benjamin Spock
May - Paul McCartney announces that all the Beatles have dropped acid.
May 19 - First U.S. air strike on Hanoi
May 20 - Flower Power Day in NYC 1967
Jun 2 - Sgt. Pepper's Lonely Hearts Club Band album by the Beatles
released.
Jun 16 - Monterey Pop Festival
Jun 21 - Summer Solstice Party in Golden Gate Park
Jun 25 - Beatles sing All You Need Is Love on TV 1967
Jun 30 - 448,400 US troops now in Vietnam
July - The Summer of Love in San Francisco
July - Summer of Rioting in the US.  Blacks take to the streets in
Chicago, Brooklyn, Cleveland and Baltimore
July 1 - Sgt. Pepper hits #1
July 11 - Newark riots start long hot summer
July 24 - 43 Die in Detroit rioting, worst in U.S. history
July 26 - H. Rap Brown arrested for inciting a riot in Maryland
July 29 - Door's Light My Fire and Procol Harem's Whiter Shade of Pale
vie for #1
Aug 26 - Jimi Hendrix's Are You Experienced hits the charts
Aug 27 - Beatles in India with Maharishi informed of Brian Epstein's death
Sept - Richard Alpert meets Bhagwan Dass at the Blue Tibetan in
Katmandu, stays in India  follows him until he meets his guru.
Sept 15 - Donovan performs at the Hollywood Bowl
Oct 3 - Woody Guthrie dies
Oct 8 - Che Guevarra killed in Bolivia by US-trained troops
Oct 12 - Big Brother and the Holding Company's Cheap Thrills with
Janis Joplin at top of LP charts.
Oct 20 - Seven KKK members convicted of conspiracy in 1964 murders of
three civil rights worker
Oct 21-22 - Anti-war protesters storm the Pentagon
Oct 21 - Diggers exorcise the Pentagon.  35,000 Demonstrate, 647
arrested
Oct 26 - Draft deferments eliminated for those who violate draft laws
or interfere with recruitment
Nov 14 - Air Quality Act provides $428 million to fight air pollution
Nov 20 - National Commission on Product Safety established
Dec - Beatles release Magical Mystery Tour
Dec - 486,000 American troops in Vietnam, of the 15,000 killed to
date, 60% died in 1967.
Dec - Stop the Draft movement organized by 40 antiwar groups,
nationwide protests ensue.
Dec 5 - 1000 antiwar protesters try to close NYC induction center. 
585 arrested including Allen Ginsberg and Dr. Benjamin Spock
Dec 5 - Beatles open Apple Shop in London
Dec 8 - Otis Redding records Dock of the Bay
Dec 10 - Otis Redding dies in plane crash
Dec 22 - Owsley busted, stops making acid
Dec 31 - Abbie Hoffman, Jerry Rubin, Paul Krassner, Dick Gregory, 
friends pronounce themselves Yippies
 

1968
Jan 16 - Youth International Party (Yippies) founded
Jan 18 - Eartha Kitt visiting LBJ at White House speaks out against
the war
Jan 22 - B-52 carrying H-bomb crashes in Greenland
Jan 23 - USS Pueblo seized by Korea
Jan 31 - Viet Cong launch Tet Offensive
Feb - Timothy Leary evicted from Millbrook house
Feb - Beatles go to India to visit Maharishi Mahesh Yogi at Rishikesh
on the Ganges river.  Mia Farrow, Donovan follow.
Feb 8 - George Wallace announce candidacy for President on law and
order platform
Mar 12 - Eugene McCarthy wins 42% of New Hampshire vote in
presidential primary
Mar 16 - My Lai massacre 200 - 500 Vietnamese villagers killed
Mar 16 - Robert F. Kennedy announces candidacy for President
Mar 31 - LBJ announces decision not to run again and offers partial
Vietnam bombing halt
Apr 4 - Martin Luther King shot and killed in Memphis
Apr - The week following Martin Luther King Jr.'s murder sees black
uprisings in 125 cities across the U.S.
Apr 6 - Oakland Police ambush Black Panthers. Eldridge Cleaver
arrested with a bullet-shattered leg. Bobby Hutton shot and killed.
Apr 8 - Bureau of Narcotics and Dangerous Drugs established (DEA)
Apr 11 - LBJ signs civil rights bill banning housing discrimination
Apr 11 - Major call-up of reserves for duty in Vietnam
Apr 14 - Love-in at Malibu Canyon, Calif.
Apr 15 - 

[FairfieldLife] Re: The Days of Our Lives (Youth)

2005-11-14 Thread akasha_108
--- In FairfieldLife@yahoogroups.com, akasha_108 [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote:

 http://www.hippy.com/php/article-15.html
 
 I find timelines can be interesting -- jogging memories of what we
 were doing when these events occurred --  and can help in
 reconstrucing other timelines like the TMO (this course had to be near
 these dates because I remember the announcement about ... dying.
 

Start of a TMO Timeline (TMO stuff preceeded by * -- interspersed
with the rest of counter culture / world. Please feel free to add.




1967

* Early 1967 or Late 1966, MMY announces he will return to India
and go into lifetime silence.

Jan 14 - Gathering of the Tribes, First Human Be-In, 20,000, S.F.
Jan 27 - US, USSR, UK sign treaty banning nuclear weapons in space
Feb - 25,000 US troops sent to Cambodian border
Feb - Beatles release Strawberry Fields Forever, Penny Lane, Michelle,
Yesterday
Mar - Scientist report LSD causes chromosome damage (never validated).
Mar - The Berkeley Barb starts the smokable banana rumor (based upon
Donovan's song Mellow Yellow)
Mar 3 - Alice B. Toklas dies
Mar 18 - First U.S. supertanker wreck. Torrey Canyon spills 90,000
tons of oil onto English shores
Mar 26 - Be-In at Central Park in NY. 10,000 attend

* Spring 1967 TMer Robbie Krieger, part of LA SIMS Gayley Ave 
UCLA wave of initiates writes Lighter My Fire. Other song written by
Krieger or Morrison -- later on first Doors album Take it as It Comes. 

Apr 5 - Grayline starts hippie tours of Haight/Ashbury
Apr 10 - Vietnam Week starts. Draft card burnings and anti-draft
demonstrations
Apr 15 - Anti-Vietnam War protest. 400,000 march from Central Park to
UN. Speeches by Martin Luther King, Stokely Carmichael and Dr.
Benjamin Spock
May - Paul McCartney announces that all the Beatles have dropped acid.
May 19 - First U.S. air strike on Hanoi
May 20 - Flower Power Day in NYC 1967
Jun 2 - Sgt. Pepper's Lonely Hearts Club Band album by the Beatles
released.
Jun 16 - Monterey Pop Festival

 Early Summer 1967 -- Beatles initiated into TM 

Jun 21 - Summer Solstice Party in Golden Gate Park
Jun 25 - Beatles sing All You Need Is Love on TV 1967
Jun 30 - 448,400 US troops now in Vietnam
July - The Summer of Love in San Francisco
July - Summer of Rioting in the US. Blacks take to the streets in
Chicago, Brooklyn, Cleveland and Baltimore
July 1 - Sgt. Pepper hits #1
July 11 - Newark riots start long hot summer
July 24 - 43 Die in Detroit rioting, worst in U.S. history
July 26 - H. Rap Brown arrested for inciting a riot in Maryland


* July 29 - Door's Light My Fire and Procol Harem's Whiter Shade
of Pale vie for #1


Aug 26 - Jimi Hendrix's Are You Experienced hits the charts


Aug 27 - Beatles in India with Maharishi informed of Brian Epstein's death

* Above is in original timeline. I beleive it is partially an
error. the Beattles were with M in London. yes? Rishikesh course was
spring of 1968.


Sept - Richard Alpert meets Bhagwan Dass at the Blue Tibetan in
Katmandu, stays in India  follows him until he meets his guru.
Sept 15 - Donovan performs at the Hollywood Bowl

* Early Oct 1967 MMY lectures on west coast. Two public lectures
at filled  Berkeley Community Theatre. Says no need to give up
anything for cosmic consciousness. Crowd cheers. Flyers handed out
inviting all Students of the World to gain Cosmic Consciousness in
five years. TM 2x day for 20 min and a week residence cours 2x (?) /
year. 

Berekely Channing Ave Center opened. Grand building (former upscale
frat house)

Oct 3 - Woody Guthrie dies
Oct 8 - Che Guevarra killed in Bolivia by US-trained troops
Oct 12 - Big Brother and the Holding Company's Cheap Thrills with
Janis Joplin at top of LP charts.
Oct 20 - Seven KKK members convicted of conspiracy in 1964 murders of
three civil rights worker
Oct 21-22 - Anti-war protesters storm the Pentagon
Oct 21 - Diggers exorcise the Pentagon. 35,000 Demonstrate, 647
arrested
Oct 26 - Draft deferments eliminated for those who violate draft laws
or interfere with recruitment

 Nov 2-7, or so, people lined up around the block to be initiated
into TM. Jerry Jarvis, Carol Hanbie, Pete Ports (I think), Colin
Harrision (?), Terry Gustafson (get back jojo) intiated day and
night for a week. Pauley Ballroom at UC Berkeley filled for
three-nights checking. Awesome group meditations.

* UCB dedicates a large room on campus as meditation room.

Nov 14 - Air Quality Act provides $428 million to fight air pollution
Nov 20 - National Commission on Product Safety established
Dec - Beatles release Magical Mystery Tour
Dec - 486,000 American troops in Vietnam, of the 15,000 killed to
date, 60% died in 1967.
Dec - Stop the Draft movement organized by 40 antiwar groups,
nationwide protests ensue.
Dec 5 - 1000 antiwar protesters try to close NYC induction center.
585 arrested including Allen Ginsberg and Dr. Benjamin Spock
Dec 5 - Beatles open Apple Shop in London
Dec 8 - Otis Redding records Dock of the Bay
Dec 10 - Otis

[FairfieldLife] Buy a Home, and Drag Society Down

2005-11-14 Thread akasha_108
Interesting article relevant to points discussed in various posts
yesterday.


THE recent proposals by President Bush's panel on tax reform led to a
debate on whether the mortgage interest deduction was unfair,
providing a huge subsidy for the rich while doing little for
low-income Americans. But that debate poses a more fundamental
question: Is homeownership a social good?

...

For instance, according to the 1998 study, homeowners are older,
richer, more likely to vote Republican, and more than half of them own
guns, while only a quarter of renters do.

...

Homeowners have spearheaded the movement to limit new housing supply
that has artificially inflated housing throughout the U.S., Mr.
Glaeser wrote. This is the downside to having individuals who have
incentives to keep price up.

The tax incentives might even be hurting America's inner cities,
increasing the segregation of rich and poor.

--

Buy a Home, and Drag Society Down

By EDUARDO PORTER, NYTimes
Published: November 13, 2005

THE recent proposals by President Bush's panel on tax reform led to a
debate on whether the mortgage interest deduction was unfair,
providing a huge subsidy for the rich while doing little for
low-income Americans. But that debate poses a more fundamental
question: Is homeownership a social good?

It has long been an article of faith among policymakers that
homeownership produces a big beneficial spillover to society at large.
In the 1920's, Herbert Hoover said a family that owned a home had a
more wholesome, healthful and happy atmosphere in which to bring up
children. Franklin Delano Roosevelt said that a nation of homeowners
is unconquerable.

The government's use of tax incentives to encourage homeownership has
a cost, however. The mortgage interest deduction and other subsidies
will cost the government roughly $716 billion in lost taxes over the
next five years, the president's tax panel said. And the subsidy
distorts incentives to invest, pulling money into housing from other
parts of the economy. So, are Americans getting value for their money?

Theory suggests there are social benefits to homeownership, but we
don't know whether they are large enough to justify the size of the
subsidy, said Joseph Gyourko, professor of real estate and finance at
the University of Pennsylvania's Wharton School. My gut feeling is
that we are oversubsidizing.

Arguments for the positive effects from a society of homeowners - what
economists call positive externalities - stem mainly from the fact
that homeowners have a bigger financial stake in their homes than
renters do. This motivates them, so the theory goes, to take better
care of their houses and communities. In short, it will make them
better Americans.

The argument seems to be supported by compelling evidence. In a 1998
study, Edward Glaeser, an economics professor at Harvard, and Denise
DiPasquale, then a social scientist at the University of Chicago who
now heads the housing research firm City Research, analyzed data from
the General Social Survey, a big national study carried out annually
since 1972, and concluded that homeownership did relate to heightened
civic activity.

For instance, they found that 77 percent of homeowners said they had
at some point voted in local elections, while only 52 percent of
renters said they had. About 20 percent of renters knew the name of
their representative on the school board; 38 percent of homeowners
did. Homeowners went to church more, and invested more in the upkeep
of their homes.

But as alluring as the data may be, economists and social scientists
haven't been able to determine whether homeownership is actually
generating all the positive statistics or whether, instead, it's just
that people who vote more are more likely to buy homes.

Owning a home relates to a bunch of other things, too, and it doesn't
necessarily mean that homeownership causes or encourages them. For
instance, according to the 1998 study, homeowners are older, richer,
more likely to vote Republican, and more than half of them own guns,
while only a quarter of renters do.

There's a pervasive problem in trying to sort out whether there is
something intrinsic about homeownership that causes these
externalities or whether the people that become homeowners are the
kind of people that generate these externalities, said James Poterba,
an economics professor at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.

A study in 1996 by two economists, Richard K. Green at the University
of Wisconsin and Michelle J. White at the University of Michigan,
found that children of homeowners had a better chance of finishing
high school than the children of renters, especially among low-income
populations. And the daughters of homeowners were less likely to
become pregnant before turning 18. But social scientists are
hard-pressed to explain why homeownership would have this effect.

Beyond the difficulty of proving that owning a home generates positive
social 

[FairfieldLife] Re: Sugar-Coated Poison: Earth turns around the sun not the other way: (How MMY

2005-11-14 Thread akasha_108
 jim_flanegin [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote:

 Sounds like a great guy. Thanks for clearing that up!

http://www.webindia123.com/personal/religious/sriravi.htm

Some more bio stuff







 Yahoo! Groups Sponsor ~-- 
Get fast access to your favorite Yahoo! Groups. Make Yahoo! your home page
http://us.click.yahoo.com/dpRU5A/wUILAA/yQLSAA/JjtolB/TM
~- 

To subscribe, send a message to:
[EMAIL PROTECTED]

Or go to: 
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/FairfieldLife/
and click 'Join This Group!' 
Yahoo! Groups Links

* To visit your group on the web, go to:
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/FairfieldLife/

* To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
[EMAIL PROTECTED]

* Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to:
http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
 




[FairfieldLife] Re: San Francisco Invites Terrorists to Attack O'Reily

2005-11-14 Thread akasha_108
--- In FairfieldLife@yahoogroups.com, gullible fool [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote:

  
 Akasha, can you tell me where in the article it says
 San Francisco Invites Terrorists to Attack O'Reily,
 because I could not find it. 



That was the header on the source compilation the Drudge Retort (a
take off on the Drudge Report).
http://www.drudge.com/







 Yahoo! Groups Sponsor ~-- 
Get fast access to your favorite Yahoo! Groups. Make Yahoo! your home page
http://us.click.yahoo.com/dpRU5A/wUILAA/yQLSAA/JjtolB/TM
~- 

To subscribe, send a message to:
[EMAIL PROTECTED]

Or go to: 
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/FairfieldLife/
and click 'Join This Group!' 
Yahoo! Groups Links

* To visit your group on the web, go to:
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/FairfieldLife/

* To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
[EMAIL PROTECTED]

* Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to:
http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
 




[FairfieldLife] Darshan (was: Sugar-Coated Poison: )

2005-11-14 Thread akasha_108
 Peter [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote:
 In my direct
 experience with MMY and SSRS, their darshan is vast
 and powerful...infinite Shiva. 


An honest question and sincere point:

I am wondering what you feel from your wife's darshan? Or attention
on the love you have for her?

The point I am trying to get at is distinguishing what comes from
inside us, but we attribute to others, and what really comes from
outside.

Which is sort of silly when we ae discussing infinite Shiva -- its
all inside and outside.

But that sort of gets to the point. I find, that when focussing on a
loved one, love fills you up, and all sorts of energy dynamics can
unfold, lots of powerful stuff can happen. And one attributes it to
the other, but its really just love within oneself unfolding.

So thats the case with ordinary folks (not to imply your wife is
ordinary). 

Is it (any) different with saints? I know that sounds like a silly
question and makes it seems I have never been in the presence of
saints and felt powerful and wonderful things. I have. But still, it
begs the question, how much is coming from them, how much is just real
inner stuff bubbleing up because we are focussed on something that
invokes love and surrender?

MMY has wonderful lectures on you think its all coming from the
teacher, but the teahcer does nothing, it all comes from the student.
Like a resevoir does nothing, its the pipe that makes the conection.
Like a golden chain  

And love comes from you, not from the one you love

Both quote streams are related to what i am trying to get at with the
darshan experience -- but are not 100% dead-on.

And many devotees make the (non) distinction that here or there, in
their physiccal presence, 10,000 miles away, the guru is aways there,
full as full can be.

Has anyone figured out this distinction of wholeness and its
source in saint darshan? How much is coming from the Saint?









 Yahoo! Groups Sponsor ~-- 
Get fast access to your favorite Yahoo! Groups. Make Yahoo! your home page
http://us.click.yahoo.com/dpRU5A/wUILAA/yQLSAA/JjtolB/TM
~- 

To subscribe, send a message to:
[EMAIL PROTECTED]

Or go to: 
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/FairfieldLife/
and click 'Join This Group!' 
Yahoo! Groups Links

* To visit your group on the web, go to:
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/FairfieldLife/

* To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
[EMAIL PROTECTED]

* Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to:
http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
 




[FairfieldLife] Foreign Investors Lose Appetite for Treasuries

2005-11-14 Thread akasha_108
This, if a continuing trend, would signal a trend in the
(long-anticipated) rise of long term bond rates -- the solution to
the conundrum Fed Chariman Greenspan has been commenting on for some
time - the flattening of the yield cure -- the rise in short term
rates (that the Fed can highly influence) while long-term rates (upon
-- which fixed mortgage rates are based -- and the periodic adjustment
in ARMS are pegged) are flat or declining

Steadily rising mortgage rates may be trigger for housing price
deflation --- (the bursting of the housing bubble) given that it has
contorted itself to such unsustainable levels. 


===

Foreign Investors Lose Appetite for Treasuries as Deficit Rises  
ListenListen

Nov. 14 (Bloomberg) -- The U.S. government is growing more dependent
on investors from abroad just as their appetite for Treasury
securities is waning.

Overseas investors, who own half of all U.S. government debt, bought
14 percent of the $79 billion in benchmark 10-year notes auctioned
this year, down from 21 percent in 2004, Treasury Department data
show. Bidders including foreign central banks purchased a smaller
percentage of the $44 billion in three-, five- and 10-year notes the
Treasury sold last week than they did a year ago.

A drop in demand may extend the slump that pushed Treasury yields to
the highest this year, raising the government's borrowing costs to
finance a $319 billion deficit. The U.S. will borrow a record $171
billion from January to March, about double the amount this quarter,
to help pay for relief efforts after Hurricanes Katrina and Rita.

``I'd wait before buying because there is still more upside for
yields,'' said Masayuki Yoshihara, a Tokyo-based investor who helps
manage the equivalent of $25 billion at Sumitomo Life Insurance Co.,
Japan's fourth-largest life insurer. Investors ``are cautious about
buying too aggressively right now with yields rising so quickly,'' he
said in a Nov. 10 interview.

The yield on the benchmark 10-year note rose to 4.68 percent on Nov. 4
from 3.98 percent on Sept. 1, just after Katrina struck the Gulf
Coast. The yield, which moves inversely to the note's price and is
used to help determine corporate and consumer borrowing costs, ended
last week at 4.57 percent.

Foreign Participation

Foreign investors bought about 21 percent of the $218 billion of
two-year notes auctioned this year, down from 31 percent in 2004,
according to Treasury data. They also purchased about 21 percent of
the $154 billion of five-year notes sold by the Treasury, compared
with 30 percent last year.

The figures don't include the results of last week's sales, which will
be released in December. Indirect bidders, a larger group that
includes U.S. institutional investors, foreign central banks and
overseas investors, bought 34.9 percent of the debt sold. The
percentage is down from 47.4 percent at the quarterly auction of
three-, five-and 10-year notes a year earlier.

``Foreign buying is a very important source of demand for Treasuries
and the market is concerned by evidence that it is waning,'' Joseph Di
Censo, a bond strategist at Lehman Brothers Inc. in New York, said
Nov. 11. ``This would obviously put upward pressure on yields. The
Treasury will always be able to finance the budget deficit. The real
question is at what cost.''

Foreign investors increased Treasury holdings by 9 percent this year,
compared with more than 23 percent in each of the past two years. The
current pace is the lowest since 2001, when net purchases rose 2.45
percent.

`Haunting' Deficit

Overseas investors owned $2.06 trillion, or half the $4.11 trillion in
tradable Treasuries as of August, up from less than 40 percent three
years ago and 34 percent in 2000.

Debt strategists have credited foreign investors with keeping U.S.
yields in check as the budget deficit ballooned to a record $412.8
billion in fiscal 2004 ending Sept. 30 and the Federal Reserve raised
interest rates 12 times. Since 2002, foreign purchases have reduced
10-year Treasury yields by 19 basis points, according to Banc of
America Securities LLC. A basis point is 0.01 percentage point.

``You can't build in these constant deficits without having them come
back to haunt you,'' said Richard Fisher, president of the Federal
Reserve Bank of Dallas, on Nov. 3 at Harvard University in Cambridge,
Massachusetts.

Japan, the largest foreign owner of Treasuries, cut its holdings of
the securities this year to $684.5 billion in August from last year's
peak of $699.4 billion in August, according to the latest Treasury data.

An update on international demand comes in two days with the Treasury
International Capital report for September. The median forecast of
three economists surveyed by Bloomberg is that net purchases of
stocks, bonds and other financial assets slowed to $70 billion from
$91.3 billion in August.

`Better Places'

There's little incentive to invest in U.S. debt with inflation
accelerating and the Fed forecast by 

[FairfieldLife] Re: Darshan (was: Sugar-Coated Poison: )

2005-11-14 Thread akasha_108
--- In FairfieldLife@yahoogroups.com, jim_flanegin [EMAIL PROTECTED]
wrote:

 --- In FairfieldLife@yahoogroups.com, akasha_108 [EMAIL PROTECTED] 
 wrote:
 
   Peter [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote:
   In my direct
   experience with MMY and SSRS, their darshan is vast
   and powerful...infinite Shiva. 
  
  
  An honest question and sincere point:
  
  I am wondering what you feel from your wife's darshan? Or 
 attention
  on the love you have for her?
  
  The point I am trying to get at is distinguishing what comes from
  inside us, but we attribute to others, and what really comes from
  outside.
  
  Which is sort of silly when we ae discussing infinite Shiva -- 
 its
  all inside and outside.
  
  But that sort of gets to the point. I find, that when focussing on 
 a
  loved one, love fills you up, and all sorts of energy dynamics can
  unfold, lots of powerful stuff can happen. And one attributes it to
  the other, but its really just love within oneself unfolding.
  
  So thats the case with ordinary folks (not to imply your wife is
  ordinary). 
  
  Is it (any) different with saints? I know that sounds like a 
 silly
  question and makes it seems I have never been in the presence of
  saints and felt powerful and wonderful things. I have. But still, 
 it
  begs the question, how much is coming from them, how much is just 
 real
  inner stuff bubbleing up because we are focussed on something that
  invokes love and surrender?
  
  MMY has wonderful lectures on you think its all coming from the
  teacher, but the teahcer does nothing, it all comes from the 
 student.
  Like a resevoir does nothing, its the pipe that makes the 
 conection.
  Like a golden chain  
  
  And love comes from you, not from the one you love
  
  Both quote streams are related to what i am trying to get at with 
 the
  darshan experience -- but are not 100% dead-on.
  
  And many devotees make the (non) distinction that here or there, 
 in
  their physiccal presence, 10,000 miles away, the guru is aways 
 there,
  full as full can be.
  
  Has anyone figured out this distinction of wholeness and its
  source in saint darshan? How much is coming from the Saint?
 
 Its a resonance thing. The saint is awake. When we awaken in the 
 same way, we think it is the saint. But it isn't. Its both. Same 
 with a loved one. Its both. Which is why as we develop, it doesn't 
 much matter if it is a tree or a saint or a piece of gum or a dog or 
 the morning breeze, same effect.
 
 What originally made us go Wow! is pretty much everywhere. Not a 
 whole lot of difference. More oneness, less otherness, less wowness, 
 more isness...


But in the case of a tree, its not really both, the tree is not
awake like a saint, it does not resonate in the same way as awakened
saint. 

But I agree, experientially, that inanimate things, like a tree, 
can serve as a catalyst. I used to literally have a tree temple in a
large park -- that I figured, vowed , decided, intuited that
through devotion I could make the divine manifest in that very spot.
Like a murti in a temple. 

My above question has to do with the question of if its our image
and expectations of the saints purity that invokes that within us,
starting the energy chain and inner dynamics. 

For example, I view SBS as pure as refined glass or a diamond -- an
almost tranlucent body that lights up like a blazing diamond from
inner light. But I realize that may be from inner and personal
expectation and imagining. And thus, really could be transferred
to anything - and that anything could serve as a similar catalyst.
Like my tree.






 Yahoo! Groups Sponsor ~-- 
Get fast access to your favorite Yahoo! Groups. Make Yahoo! your home page
http://us.click.yahoo.com/dpRU5A/wUILAA/yQLSAA/JjtolB/TM
~- 

To subscribe, send a message to:
[EMAIL PROTECTED]

Or go to: 
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/FairfieldLife/
and click 'Join This Group!' 
Yahoo! Groups Links

* To visit your group on the web, go to:
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/FairfieldLife/

* To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
[EMAIL PROTECTED]

* Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to:
http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
 




[FairfieldLife] Study cites recent trends that signal housing bubble

2005-11-14 Thread akasha_108
Per recent housing price discussion, a new study highlights three key
factors that distinguish the current pruce surge and the traditional
housing price cycle -- indicating a potential bubble.

---
Study cites recent trends that signal housing bubble

Washington, DC - Recent trends in the housing market suggest a
dangerous housing bubble, rather than a run-up caused by fundamental
factors such as higher incomes and population growth, according to a
new study by the Center for Economic and Policy Research (CEPR).

The report, Will a Bursting Bubble Trouble Bernanke? The Evidence for
a Housing Bubble, cites three trends in the housing market that
suggest an unsustainable increase in house prices: 1) A sharp
divergence between house sale prices and rents; 2) An extraordinary
jump in the rate of housing construction; and 3) A sharp decline in
the savings rate, driven by a housing wealth effect.

Federal Reserve Board chairman nominee, Benjamin Bernanke, has argued
that there is no housing bubble and, therefore, no reason for the Fed
to take action to address the bubble. Bernanke's approach raises grave
risks, since the impact of a bursting housing bubble is likely to be
even greater than the collapse of the stock bubble. The collapse of
the housing bubble will throw the economy into a recession, and quite
likely a severe recession, according to economist Dean Baker,
co-author of the report.

If the Fed chooses to let a housing bubble expand unchecked, the
eventual cost to the economy and millions of American families could
be enormous, said Baker.

The report, by Dean Baker and David Rosnick, found three housing
patterns that are tell-tale signs of a housing bubble:

*

  A sharp divergence between house sale prices and rents. If house
sale prices were pushed up by fundamentals in the housing market, it
would be expected that rents and house sale prices would rise together
-- but they are not. The house price index has increased by an
unprecedented 51 percentage points more than the rent index since 1997.
*

  A high rate of housing construction. The rate of housing
construction over the last three years is more than 40 percent higher
than it was in the 17 years prior to the run-up in house prices. This
is not caused by the increase in the U.S. population, since the most
rapid growth in the number of new households actually took place in
the 1970s and early 1980s, when the huge baby boom cohort was first
forming their own households.
*

  A sharp decline in the savings rate. If house prices move at
approximately the same pace as the overall inflation rate, as was the
case prior to 1997, then housing wealth will have little effect on the
savings rate. However, in the last eight years, house prices have
outpaced the overall rate of inflation. The resulting wealth effect
has depressed the savings rate, which has actually turned negative in
recent months. 

For the full report see: Will a Bursting Bubble Trouble Bernanke?:
The Evidence for a Housing Bubble.


 The Center for Economic and Policy Research is an independent,
nonpartisan think tank that was established to promote democratic
debate on the most important economic and social issues that affect
people's lives.

1611 Connecticut Ave., NW Suite 400 Washington, DC 20009
Tel: 202-293-5380 | Fax: 202-588-1356 | www.cepr.net

 





 Yahoo! Groups Sponsor ~-- 
Get fast access to your favorite Yahoo! Groups. Make Yahoo! your home page
http://us.click.yahoo.com/dpRU5A/wUILAA/yQLSAA/JjtolB/TM
~- 

To subscribe, send a message to:
[EMAIL PROTECTED]

Or go to: 
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/FairfieldLife/
and click 'Join This Group!' 
Yahoo! Groups Links

* To visit your group on the web, go to:
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/FairfieldLife/

* To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
[EMAIL PROTECTED]

* Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to:
http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
 




[FairfieldLife] Re: The Mahesh Kozlowski Effect

2005-11-13 Thread akasha_108
--- In FairfieldLife@yahoogroups.com, authfriend [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote:

 --- In FairfieldLife@yahoogroups.com, akasha_108 [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote:
 
  authfriend [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote:
   why you refuse to do such a simple
   thing as supply some URLs that you claim
   already to have found.
  
  And this is important, or even interesting, because ?
 
 Oh, if blatant dishonesty and hypocrisy are of
 no concern to you, I guess it wouldn't be.

Thats a pretty big disconnect. If blatant dishonesty and hypocrisy
were manfiestly core issues here, it might be of interest. Though
labeling people, just for the sake of labeling, can get to be quite
boring and IMO non-productive. 

In my view I don't see blatant dishonesty and hypocrisy -- but
oddly, I do see some petty obsessions. I remember when Vaj first 
made the statement. It was not exactly earth shattering. A quick
observation of some momentary interest. Not the kind of thing that
would affect ones world view.

Then I remember your correction: it wasn't a bunch of quick rich
schemes after all, it was Fred G.s book. Curious, I did a search
myself. The first page was filled with what looked like get rich quick
schemes based on do less accomplish more (or do nothing accomplish
everything). Upon closer examination, I saw they all related to Fred's
book. So my take away was, you were both correct in reporting your
perceptions. You, Judy, were technically correct. Vaj, it was clear to
me, made a perceptual or cognitive error, as I initially did, and
reported what he thought he saw. Not a big deal. 

I don't see blatant dishonesty and hypocrisy. And its not a matter
of much important to begin with. I mean its not like Vaj was
testifying before the nation about intelligence on WMD. 

So to go on and on and on about this, over a three month period,
appears a bit curious to me. IMO, to me, it reveals quite a bit more
about you than about Vaj.
 








 Yahoo! Groups Sponsor ~-- 
Get fast access to your favorite Yahoo! Groups. Make Yahoo! your home page
http://us.click.yahoo.com/dpRU5A/wUILAA/yQLSAA/JjtolB/TM
~- 

To subscribe, send a message to:
[EMAIL PROTECTED]

Or go to: 
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/FairfieldLife/
and click 'Join This Group!' 
Yahoo! Groups Links

* To visit your group on the web, go to:
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/FairfieldLife/

* To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
[EMAIL PROTECTED]

* Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to:
http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
 




[FairfieldLife] Re: Earth turns around the sun not the other way: (How MMY sold a diamond (TM) f

2005-11-13 Thread akasha_108
--- In FairfieldLife@yahoogroups.com, Jason Spock [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote:

  
 The Himalayan masters have outdated ideas.
  
 Just a single guy manages to float in the air,..  John Hagelin
will be the next president of United States of America.

And if just one monkey flies out my ass, I'll be on Letterman. 

John and I both are s close.






 Yahoo! Groups Sponsor ~-- 
Get fast access to your favorite Yahoo! Groups. Make Yahoo! your home page
http://us.click.yahoo.com/dpRU5A/wUILAA/yQLSAA/JjtolB/TM
~- 

To subscribe, send a message to:
[EMAIL PROTECTED]

Or go to: 
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/FairfieldLife/
and click 'Join This Group!' 
Yahoo! Groups Links

* To visit your group on the web, go to:
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/FairfieldLife/

* To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
[EMAIL PROTECTED]

* Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to:
http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
 




[FairfieldLife] Re: The Mahesh Kozlowski Effect

2005-11-13 Thread akasha_108
--- In FairfieldLife@yahoogroups.com, authfriend [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote:

 --- In FairfieldLife@yahoogroups.com, akasha_108 [EMAIL PROTECTED] 
 wrote:
authfriend [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote:
 why you refuse to do such a simple
 thing as supply some URLs that you claim
 already to have found.

And this is important, or even interesting, because ?
   
   Oh, if blatant dishonesty and hypocrisy are of
   no concern to you, I guess it wouldn't be.
  
  Thats a pretty big disconnect. If blatant dishonesty and hypocrisy
  were manfiestly core issues here, it might be of interest. Though
  labeling people, just for the sake of labeling, can get to be quite
  boring and IMO non-productive. 
  
  In my view I don't see blatant dishonesty and hypocrisy -- but
  oddly, I do see some petty obsessions. I remember when Vaj first 
  made the statement. It was not exactly earth shattering. A quick
  observation of some momentary interest. Not the kind of thing that
  would affect ones world view.
  
  Then I remember your correction: it wasn't a bunch of quick rich
  schemes after all, it was Fred G.s book. Curious, I did a search
  myself. The first page was filled with what looked like get rich 
  quick schemes based on do less accomplish more (or do nothing 
  accomplish everything). Upon closer examination, I saw they all 
  related to Fred's book. So my take away was, you were both correct 
  in reporting your perceptions. You, Judy, were technically correct. 
  Vaj, it was clear to me, made a perceptual or cognitive error, as
I initially did, and reported what he thought he saw. Not a big deal.

 
 Mm-hm.  And yet, had it been just a mistake, after
 I made my post reporting on Gratzon's book, you'd
 think Vaj would have double-checked and then retracted
 his claim.  *Then* it would not have been a big deal;
 anybody can make a careless mistake like that.
 
 But he didn't.  Instead he came up with all kinds of
 crap, 

I took it as Vaj playing with you. Knowing that if he obsuficated a
bit, you would tend towards imploding in obsession. Barry enjoys such
toying also. Perhaps not the noblest of traits, but maybe they are
students of the behavioral sciences and love to see small pieces of
bait repeatedly taken and watch the predictable drama unfold.

...

 (The point of the exercise,
 of course, having been to suggest that TMers are
 greedily preoccupied with making money and thus
 vulnerable to get-rich-quick schemes, especially if
 they're advertised using TM slogans.)

From I have seen in 35+ years,in and around the movement:

1) TM teachers and govs are often preoccupied with making money quickly.

2) TM teachers and govs are often open to magical thinking, often 
lack much critical evaluation, logic and analytical skills,  and
therefore are vulnerable to get-rich-quick schemes.  

3) TM teachers and govs are often have talked the talk of incredible
undemonstrated stuff for so long, using TM slogans and lingo, that BS
 can often make great sense to them hey its just like . They do
draw parallels and analogies as if this were a proof. And worse yet,
often the analogies are to nebulous, abstract unproven stuff to begin
with from TMO-world.

 What we know *for sure* is that having been informed
 of his error, Vaj first threw down a red herring of
 Fairfield get-rich-quick schemes, then when that   
 didn't work, attempted to stonewall and pretend that
 there indeed were such sites but that somehow I was
 too incompetent to find them.

Or he was playing with you. Lots of possible interpretations here. You
may know it for sure -- just as we all claim to believe our
interpreation of things, becasue they so clearly makes sense, it
obviously (to us) is correct.
 
 Now, I don't know what your standards are for blatant
 dishonesty, but the above more than meets mine, even
 if Vaj's original claim was just a dumb mistake.

Yes, your threshold is way way lower than mine.

 
 It's not like anybody here is testifying on such
 important matters.  But Vaj *does* testify about
 matters that are important to many here, quite a 
 few of whom seem to consider him to be a font of
 authoritative information.

And we all take what he says, as with what anyone else says, with some
grains of salt, based on OUR own appraisal of their tendency towards
veracity. How you evealuate Vaj's tendency towards veracity is really
of little consequence and interest to me. And I would guess most. We 
can and do make our own appraisals. 

 So it appears to me to be important to know that he
 is willing to lie in the service of his agenda, 

Or he sometimes plays with people, throws out some bait to see if the
age old patterns emerge.


 and
 accordingly take other pronouncements that he makes
 about MMY and TM and the TMO --and quite possibly
 other things as well--with a good-sized salt shaker
 handy.

We all have our salt shakers. But if anything, your focus on this
incident gives Vaj more credibiliy not less, in my view

[FairfieldLife] Re: Earth turns around the sun not the other way:

2005-11-13 Thread akasha_108
--- In FairfieldLife@yahoogroups.com, Rick Archer [EMAIL PROTECTED]
wrote:

 on 11/13/05 11:23 AM, akasha_108 at [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote:
 
  --- In FairfieldLife@yahoogroups.com, Jason Spock
[EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote:
  
   
  The Himalayan masters have outdated ideas.
   
  Just a single guy manages to float in the air,..  John Hagelin
  will be the next president of United States of America.
  
  And if just one monkey flies out my ass, I'll be on Letterman.
 
 I don't know. Do you think they'd let you demonstrate that on
network TV?


With Dave? Sure. He'd probably stage on the roof of the Ed Sullivan
Theatre (as he does a number of things) and have me aim at windows in
buildings across the street to see if I could hit them.

And just think of the ratings if I am also the one guy who levitates.
A twofer. John Haiglin would be there for running commentary. The
levitation is predicted by my 13d virtual loop, tunneling of quantum
worlds string theory. The monkey thing, we are still running some
ARIMA models to try to correctly predict that sort of thing. The fact
that the monkey is also flying, similtaneously with the emittor, 
shows the self referral, infinite looping parallelism of the universe.
But we need more research dollars. Here is my 800 number. 





 Yahoo! Groups Sponsor ~-- 
Get fast access to your favorite Yahoo! Groups. Make Yahoo! your home page
http://us.click.yahoo.com/dpRU5A/wUILAA/yQLSAA/JjtolB/TM
~- 

To subscribe, send a message to:
[EMAIL PROTECTED]

Or go to: 
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/FairfieldLife/
and click 'Join This Group!' 
Yahoo! Groups Links

* To visit your group on the web, go to:
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/FairfieldLife/

* To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
[EMAIL PROTECTED]

* Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to:
http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
 




[FairfieldLife] Re: Earth turns around the sun not the other way: (How MMY sold a diamond (TM) f

2005-11-13 Thread akasha_108
Kenny H [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote:

 *also trying to rewrite the tax code and screw people out of their
 mortgage deduction

And who is getting screwed out of thier mortgage deduction? Under the
proposal, the average home owner will maintian their full
deductiblity. And those who are unable to deduct it now, because they
 dont save enough by itemizing will be able to deduct it. 

Who will lose part of their deduction? The upper third or so on the
wealth scale. You seem overly concerned for these poor souls. First,
they will retain dudutability up to about the average price home
regionally. Thus in California, those with a million dollar home,
would, under the proposal, be only be able deduct the mortgage
interest equivalent to about a $400-500,000 home. And yet, in balance,
a lot of these taax payers are not currently able to deduct for such,
because at their incomes the Alternative Minimum Tax (AMT) kicks in.
But under  the proposal, AMT will be killed, thus the upper third or
tax payers trade part of their mortgage deduction for elimination of
the onerous AMT. 

So don't cry too hard for these upper 1/3 of taxpayers who will be
affected. (Which seems odd for you -- to cry for such (mostly
Republicans), but I guess its just compassion bubbling out for all of
God's creatures.) Their taxes  will be pretty much uneffected as the
AMT gains will balance out the partial mortgage deducability loss. 

And the lower 2/3s of tax payers will be generally uneffected -- or
will actually gain -- by being able to deduct mortgage interest when
they can't now. 

And the overall effect will be to make housing more affordable. A good
thing, yes?

What is interesting is your implication that mortgage interest
deductions is an entitlement. It is a poor policy economically, having
been a huge bonanza of a tax shelter for the rich and has contributed
to current housing being out of reach for 85% of potential buyers.

An effect will be that less money will be sunk into fancy show-off
houses and more into capital investments which will raise productivity
and wage rates for all. A good thing, yes?









 Yahoo! Groups Sponsor ~-- 
Get fast access to your favorite Yahoo! Groups. Make Yahoo! your home page
http://us.click.yahoo.com/dpRU5A/wUILAA/yQLSAA/JjtolB/TM
~- 

To subscribe, send a message to:
[EMAIL PROTECTED]

Or go to: 
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/FairfieldLife/
and click 'Join This Group!' 
Yahoo! Groups Links

* To visit your group on the web, go to:
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/FairfieldLife/

* To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
[EMAIL PROTECTED]

* Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to:
http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
 





[FairfieldLife] Re: The Mahesh Kozlowski Effect

2005-11-13 Thread akasha_108
You are correct in that in rereading what I wrote, I should have said
something like a visible minority of TM teachers and govs are often
preoccupied 

I didn't mean to say all TM teachers are like that -- I wrote it too
hastily. I agree with you A lot of TM teachers and governors are not
preoccupied with making money at all, whether quickly or slowly. The
majority. 

My point is that I have seen a lot of others who reflect the
characteristics of my points. And it appears to me a higher proportion
than found in society as a whole, though maybe I tend to hang with
maintstream career types and my vision is skewed. There certainly is a
lot of mojo in the lottery. Though I don't personally know many people
who buy such lousy odds gambles.

And my personal experience with easy money teachers  was in the 70's
and then looking a bit at a distance in the 80's and 90's -- with
periodic personal encounters that appeared to confirm what I was
seeing and hearing from afar. 

And FF appears to have had its share, actually a higher share than
mainstream society from what I can tell, of scam artists, easy money
schemes etc. Along with a lot of hard working people in intelligently
concieved businesses. 

So sorry if my observations were overgeneralized, but for a segment of
teachers, I still believe its a fair characterization.

 
--- In FairfieldLife@yahoogroups.com, feste37 [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote:

 From my 35+ years in and around the movement, I've not observed
this. I think you could argue that the reverse is true, at least as
far as your first point is  concerned. A lot of TM teachers and
governors are not preoccupied with  making money at all, whether
quickly or slowly. They have a more spiritual  orientation to life and
are not so concerned with the accumulation of material 
 things. The gullibility and stupidity you ascribe to them seems
unfair, to say  the least. 
 
 --- In FairfieldLife@yahoogroups.com, akasha_108 [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote:
 
 
 
  From I have seen in 35+ years,in and around the movement:
  
  1) TM teachers and govs are often preoccupied with making money
quickly.
  
  2) TM teachers and govs are often open to magical thinking,
often lack much critical evaluation, logic and analytical skills,  and
therefore are vulnerable to get-rich-quick schemes.  
  
  3) TM teachers and govs are often have talked the talk of
incredible undemonstrated stuff for so long, using TM slogans and
lingo, that BS can often make great sense to them hey its just like
. They do draw parallels and analogies as if this were a proof.
And worse yet, often the analogies are to nebulous, abstract unproven
stuff to begin with from TMO-world.






 Yahoo! Groups Sponsor ~-- 
Get fast access to your favorite Yahoo! Groups. Make Yahoo! your home page
http://us.click.yahoo.com/dpRU5A/wUILAA/yQLSAA/JjtolB/TM
~- 

To subscribe, send a message to:
[EMAIL PROTECTED]

Or go to: 
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/FairfieldLife/
and click 'Join This Group!' 
Yahoo! Groups Links

* To visit your group on the web, go to:
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/FairfieldLife/

* To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
[EMAIL PROTECTED]

* Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to:
http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
 





[FairfieldLife] Re: Earth turns around the sun not the other way: (How MMY sold a diamond (TM) f

2005-11-13 Thread akasha_108
I know, California real estate is unreal (literally IMO and is not
stable at current levels.) Thats one reason I left the state, having
been born, raised, educated and careered there. Housing prices are
just in fairyland compared to many other nice areas. And with
broadband internet being most everywhere (and soon to be wireless, and
literally EVERYWHERE, location is less and less important IMO,
particularly if you can make a living not tied physically to a large
hub business center.)

Compare a $500,000 or million dollar home in SF, San Diego or Sac to
one in FF. Its a joke.

But the mortgage deduction still applies to the 350k bungalow. The
proposals are for it to be partially taken away for the kind of basic
$million middle class home close to it.

And long run, thats a good thing, it will help bring housing and
affordability back into synch. 15% affordibility rates are crazy and
unsustainable.



--- In FairfieldLife@yahoogroups.com, Kenny H [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote:

 Maybe to most of what you have written
 However, I don't consider $350,000+ for an 800-1000 sq. foot 2 br/1
 bath bungalow  (here in Sacramento) in a lousy neighborhood
 affordable. Go a few blocks over and the same houses are already at
 half a million. Go a bit further south towards the Bay Area or east
 towards Tahoe and you start getting to the $500,000+ range for a
 small-normal size home, not the estate one would have imagined for
 this kind of money.  
 
 
 
 
  Do you know that the cost of --- In FairfieldLife@yahoogroups.com,
 akasha_108 [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote:
 
  Kenny H [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote:
  
   *also trying to rewrite the tax code and screw people out of their
   mortgage deduction
  
  And who is getting screwed out of thier mortgage deduction? Under the
  proposal, the average home owner will maintian their full
  deductiblity. And those who are unable to deduct it now, because they
   dont save enough by itemizing will be able to deduct it. 
  
  Who will lose part of their deduction? The upper third or so on the
  wealth scale. You seem overly concerned for these poor souls. First,
  they will retain dudutability up to about the average price home
  regionally. Thus in California, those with a million dollar home,
  would, under the proposal, be only be able deduct the mortgage
  interest equivalent to about a $400-500,000 home. And yet, in balance,
  a lot of these taax payers are not currently able to deduct for such,
  because at their incomes the Alternative Minimum Tax (AMT) kicks in.
  But under  the proposal, AMT will be killed, thus the upper third or
  tax payers trade part of their mortgage deduction for elimination of
  the onerous AMT. 
  
  So don't cry too hard for these upper 1/3 of taxpayers who will be
  affected. (Which seems odd for you -- to cry for such (mostly
  Republicans), but I guess its just compassion bubbling out for all of
  God's creatures.) Their taxes  will be pretty much uneffected as the
  AMT gains will balance out the partial mortgage deducability loss. 
  
  And the lower 2/3s of tax payers will be generally uneffected -- or
  will actually gain -- by being able to deduct mortgage interest when
  they can't now. 
  
  And the overall effect will be to make housing more affordable. A good
  thing, yes?
  
  What is interesting is your implication that mortgage interest
  deductions is an entitlement. It is a poor policy economically, having
  been a huge bonanza of a tax shelter for the rich and has contributed
  to current housing being out of reach for 85% of potential buyers.
  
  An effect will be that less money will be sunk into fancy show-off
  houses and more into capital investments which will raise productivity
  and wage rates for all. A good thing, yes?
 








 Yahoo! Groups Sponsor ~-- 
Get fast access to your favorite Yahoo! Groups. Make Yahoo! your home page
http://us.click.yahoo.com/dpRU5A/wUILAA/yQLSAA/JjtolB/TM
~- 

To subscribe, send a message to:
[EMAIL PROTECTED]

Or go to: 
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/FairfieldLife/
and click 'Join This Group!' 
Yahoo! Groups Links

* To visit your group on the web, go to:
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/FairfieldLife/

* To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
[EMAIL PROTECTED]

* Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to:
http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
 




[FairfieldLife] Re: The Mahesh Kozlowski Effect

2005-11-13 Thread akasha_108
authfriend [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote:

akasha_108 [EMAIL PROTECTED] 

 but maybe they 
  are students of the behavioral sciences and love to see small 
  pieces of bait repeatedly taken and watch the predictable drama 
  unfold.
 

...
 But it's clearly not what Vaj was doing, if you
 go back and actually read his posts.

And yet you have taken the bait (non-existant as you seem to think it is).

 
 Yeah, but we know this for sure.  I'm reporting
 what he actually *said*, you see.

No, you are reporting your interpretation of what he said. 

 
   Now, I don't know what your standards are for blatant
   dishonesty, but the above more than meets mine, even
   if Vaj's original claim was just a dumb mistake.
  
  Yes, your threshold is way way lower than mine.
 
 I'm sorry to hear that.  Now we know you can't
 be trusted either.

Wow, I am now thrown in to pit with all the other liars and total
scoundrels, just because I have a different standard than you for
trivial vs substantial things to worry about. Oh, please don't report
me to the Thought Police oh kind and worthy Commissaress.


 
 As it happens, though, as I just pointed out, 
 many people here seem to take everything Vaj
 says as gospel.

HAHAHA. I don't think even Vaj takes everthing hes says as Gospel.
 
Any hands? Who among us takes everything Vaj says as Gospel? (And if
you do, I have a wonderful little seminar on making millions in 3
weeks, that I invite you to attend.)

 
   So it appears to me to be important to know that he
   is willing to lie in the service of his agenda, 

And  what is his agenda?



 
   I'm happy to have it revealed that I am intolerant
   of deliberate falsehood.  
  
  Or your perception of deliberate falsehood. Belief doesn't
  neessarily make it (deliberate falsehood) so.
 
 Yeah, this isn't belief; we have the evidence of
 his own words, you see.


Thats what is so fascinating. You actually beleive you can absolutely
impute his motive from words words. We have words that he uttered
(trivial, IMO) falsehoods. We do not have words that PROVE his
motives. His motives are  your interpretation of what he said. 

 
 *Even if* he were just trying to get a rise out of me--
 which there are excellent reasons to think was not the
 case--he was still perpetrating a deliberate falsehood.
 
 The first time around, it *could* have been a mistake--
 not likely, but possible.  His *defense* was obviously
 intentionally false, on its face.

No, you are reporting your interpretation of what he said. 
  


 Of course, he could easily come forward now, claim
 he was just baiting me in his defense, and explain
 that he had initially made an error--that is, if he
 wanted to set the record straight.
 
 I'm guessing he doesn't, but we'll see.


Come on down Vaj! 









 Yahoo! Groups Sponsor ~-- 
Get fast access to your favorite Yahoo! Groups. Make Yahoo! your home page
http://us.click.yahoo.com/dpRU5A/wUILAA/yQLSAA/JjtolB/TM
~- 

To subscribe, send a message to:
[EMAIL PROTECTED]

Or go to: 
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/FairfieldLife/
and click 'Join This Group!' 
Yahoo! Groups Links

* To visit your group on the web, go to:
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/FairfieldLife/

* To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
[EMAIL PROTECTED]

* Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to:
http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
 




[FairfieldLife] Re: The Mahesh Kozlowski Effect

2005-11-13 Thread akasha_108
--- In FairfieldLife@yahoogroups.com, Vaj [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote:

 
 On Nov 13, 2005, at 4:23 PM, akasha_108 wrote:
 
  HAHAHA. I don't think even Vaj takes everthing hes says as Gospel.
 
 
 Only the stuff the Burning Bush tells me to. But that book won't be  
 released until 2012.


Only George I presume. Or are you burning the whole family at the stake?







 Yahoo! Groups Sponsor ~-- 
Get fast access to your favorite Yahoo! Groups. Make Yahoo! your home page
http://us.click.yahoo.com/dpRU5A/wUILAA/yQLSAA/JjtolB/TM
~- 

To subscribe, send a message to:
[EMAIL PROTECTED]

Or go to: 
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/FairfieldLife/
and click 'Join This Group!' 
Yahoo! Groups Links

* To visit your group on the web, go to:
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/FairfieldLife/

* To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
[EMAIL PROTECTED]

* Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to:
http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
 




[FairfieldLife] Re: The Mahesh Kozlowski Effect

2005-11-13 Thread akasha_108
--- In FairfieldLife@yahoogroups.com, Vaj [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote:

 
 On Nov 13, 2005, at 4:23 PM, akasha_108 wrote:
 
  HAHAHA. I don't think even Vaj takes everthing hes says as Gospel.
 
 
 Only the stuff the Burning Bush tells me to. But that book won't be  
 released until 2012.


I saw the movie, wide screen version of the 10 commandments at a
tender impressionable age. The scene I most remember was the burning
bush. It was like, yeah, thats worth finding

What is your take on the burning bush? Most interpretations I have
heard are kundalini rising and illuminating the web of channels and
energy pathways, particularly the crown chakra, which is said to
resemble a burning bush. And it is from this illumined state, the word
of god is heard. 








 Yahoo! Groups Sponsor ~-- 
Get fast access to your favorite Yahoo! Groups. Make Yahoo! your home page
http://us.click.yahoo.com/dpRU5A/wUILAA/yQLSAA/JjtolB/TM
~- 

To subscribe, send a message to:
[EMAIL PROTECTED]

Or go to: 
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/FairfieldLife/
and click 'Join This Group!' 
Yahoo! Groups Links

* To visit your group on the web, go to:
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/FairfieldLife/

* To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
[EMAIL PROTECTED]

* Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to:
http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
 




[FairfieldLife] Re: The Mahesh Kozlowski Effect

2005-11-13 Thread akasha_108
--- In FairfieldLife@yahoogroups.com, Vaj [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote:

 
 On Nov 13, 2005, at 4:28 PM, akasha_108 wrote:
 
  --- In FairfieldLife@yahoogroups.com, Vaj [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote:
 
 
  On Nov 13, 2005, at 4:23 PM, akasha_108 wrote:
 
  HAHAHA. I don't think even Vaj takes everthing hes says as Gospel.
 
 
  Only the stuff the Burning Bush tells me to. But that book won't be
  released until 2012.
 
 
  Only George I presume. Or are you burning the whole family at the  
  stake?
 
 We threw in Ann Coulter for good measure.


Ah, I thought I heard something cackling in the fire.

(its funny though. She hangs with Bill Maher sometimes. On his show,
she laughs at his pot jokes -- and smiles at strong indendos about the
two of them getting it on. Does she take a somewhat different view
from her conservative brethen on personal freedom issues?
Fornication? Drugs? 







 Yahoo! Groups Sponsor ~-- 
Get fast access to your favorite Yahoo! Groups. Make Yahoo! your home page
http://us.click.yahoo.com/dpRU5A/wUILAA/yQLSAA/JjtolB/TM
~- 

To subscribe, send a message to:
[EMAIL PROTECTED]

Or go to: 
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/FairfieldLife/
and click 'Join This Group!' 
Yahoo! Groups Links

* To visit your group on the web, go to:
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/FairfieldLife/

* To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
[EMAIL PROTECTED]

* Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to:
http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
 





[FairfieldLife] Re: The Mahesh Kozlowski Effect

2005-11-13 Thread akasha_108
--- In FairfieldLife@yahoogroups.com, akasha_108 [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote:

 --- In FairfieldLife@yahoogroups.com, Vaj [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote:
 
  
  On Nov 13, 2005, at 4:23 PM, akasha_108 wrote:
  
   HAHAHA. I don't think even Vaj takes everthing hes says as Gospel.
  
  
  Only the stuff the Burning Bush tells me to. But that book won't be  
  released until 2012.
 
 
 I saw the movie, wide screen version of the 10 commandments at a
 tender impressionable age. The scene I most remember was the burning
 bush. It was like, yeah, thats worth finding
 
 What is your take on the burning bush? Most interpretations I have
 heard are kundalini rising and illuminating the web of channels and
 energy pathways, particularly the crown chakra, which is said to
 resemble a burning bush. And it is from this illumined state, the word
 of god is heard.

Charlston Heston saw the burning bush, heard the word of god, and
became president of the NRA. Go figure.









 Yahoo! Groups Sponsor ~-- 
Get fast access to your favorite Yahoo! Groups. Make Yahoo! your home page
http://us.click.yahoo.com/dpRU5A/wUILAA/yQLSAA/JjtolB/TM
~- 

To subscribe, send a message to:
[EMAIL PROTECTED]

Or go to: 
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/FairfieldLife/
and click 'Join This Group!' 
Yahoo! Groups Links

* To visit your group on the web, go to:
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/FairfieldLife/

* To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
[EMAIL PROTECTED]

* Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to:
http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
 




[FairfieldLife] Re: The Mahesh Kozlowski Effect

2005-11-13 Thread akasha_108
--- In FairfieldLife@yahoogroups.com, Vaj [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote:

 
 On Nov 13, 2005, at 4:37 PM, akasha_108 wrote:
 
  Ah, I thought I heard something cackling in the fire.
 
  (its funny though. She hangs with Bill Maher sometimes. On his show,
  she laughs at his pot jokes -- and smiles at strong indendos about the
  two of them getting it on. Does she take a somewhat different view
  from her conservative brethen on personal freedom issues?
  Fornication? Drugs?
 
 Not sure but I always found her very refreshing on that show.


Yea, its almost like she is human. Shes funny, bright, witty. Laughs a
lot. 

Then you see her on a cable news show appearance and she is spitting
venom and fire. 








 Yahoo! Groups Sponsor ~-- 
Get fast access to your favorite Yahoo! Groups. Make Yahoo! your home page
http://us.click.yahoo.com/dpRU5A/wUILAA/yQLSAA/JjtolB/TM
~- 

To subscribe, send a message to:
[EMAIL PROTECTED]

Or go to: 
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/FairfieldLife/
and click 'Join This Group!' 
Yahoo! Groups Links

* To visit your group on the web, go to:
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/FairfieldLife/

* To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
[EMAIL PROTECTED]

* Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to:
http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
 




[FairfieldLife] Re: Earth turns around the sun not the other way: (How MMY sold a diamond (TM) f

2005-11-13 Thread akasha_108
jim_flanegin [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote:


 I was just looking at housing prices in my neighborhood in Santa 
 Clara, Cal. which is a middle-class neighborhood, but nothing ritzy- 
 Many retired folks, some families and couples. Houses are typically 
 single story, about 50 years old, 1200 to 1500 square feet. Selling 
 prices are 750 to 900K. You won't find a house for less, although I 
 did see a 2/1, 900 square feet, for 720K...
 
 The proposed mortgage deduction would hurt a lot of people here, 
 even if prices softened somewhat. 

Well the rent to mortgage cost (after tax) in many parts of the bay
area, and other high price areas are quite low, like 50% and less.
They are hurt only if they feel the need to buy. Pay 2000 in rent or
4000 in a mortgage. Rentals in sme areas a great deals -- and a great
way to ride out the bubble.

Some will say, but I don't want to throw my money away in rent. At
least with a house I amd building equity. False on so many levels.
First, everyone is a renter. They either rent property, or the rent
money to to buy housing. A million dollar home costs a lot of rent on
money. Just as wasted as property rent. 

Second, the only thing that makes owning more attractive, financially,
than renting when the rent to mortgage ratios are so low, is the
expectation of appreciation. But that train has left. Prices
everywhere are leveling off or beginning to fall. And when the
expectations for apprecation are no longer there, it becomes a double
whammy: no appreciation, and demand for housing falls thus bringing
pressure for lower prices -- starting a depreciation expectation
cycle. Thats when everyone tries to unload and prices plummet. 

Third, if you are paying 2000 in rent instead of 4000 in mortgage for
the same property, you are saving 2000 a month which can be saved,
invested etc. Thats your rent equity building up and if there is no or
little price appreciation, it will far outstrip any equity build up in
property. 

Fourth, if one is paying interest only, they are not building up any 
equity -- nothing is going to repay principal. And they may actually
be building up negative equity, which gets tacked onto the loan in
later years. The only equity build up is if prices keep appreciating
-- it becomes a game of the greater fool. Hold risky properties now
with the hope someone will be foolish enough to buy at an appreciated
price in a flat or declining market in years hence.

Fifth, international investors may be holding up the market now, and
maybe suffering from information lags -- being sold on price trends of
past years and not understanding the dynamics of the local market. But
after a year or two of flat and declining prices, the bloom will be
off the rose, and hot international money could flood out of the area.
By definition, international investors are renting their properties.
50% rent to mortgage ratios may be bearable when prices are
appreciating 20-40% a year. But when that stops, for a couple of
years, bam, many investors will try to unload. Thus putting more
pressure on downward prices. 

 The trend here, just to buy a 
 house, is to take out an interest-only loan. So many homeowners are 
 counting on that large mortgage interest deduction to be able to 
 afford the house.

And in 2-5 years they may count their blessings the loss of mortgage
deductions prevented them from buying at the peak of the market.
 
 For the last twenty years at least, through good times and bad, 
 people have been predicting housing prices to go down here. There is 
 about a 15% affordability rate in this area, with lots and lots of 
 overseas investor money mostly from Asia keeping prices high, even 
 through recessions. 

But there has never been sustained 15% affordability and 50% rent to
mortgage ratios. So the past is not a good predictor.

And many parts of california had definite flattening and declines
1985-95 or so. Certainly in San Diego and parts of LA/OC. 
I thought the bay area had such too -- maybe not.

 
 So the SF Bay Area is not purely a domestic real estate market.
 If the mortgage deduction is adjusted to the 350K range, all that 
 will happen here is that local people will be forced to sell, 

Well, many owners have morgages in the 500 or less range, having
obtained them 5-20 years ago. Who will be initially hurt are new
buyers. But they can rent for half the price. I can't feel too sorry
for them.

 the 
 properties will be snatched up by investors and we'll have more 
 renters.

Not for too much longer, IMO.






 Yahoo! Groups Sponsor ~-- 
Get fast access to your favorite Yahoo! Groups. Make Yahoo! your home page
http://us.click.yahoo.com/dpRU5A/wUILAA/yQLSAA/JjtolB/TM
~- 

To subscribe, send a message to:
[EMAIL PROTECTED]

Or go to: 
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/FairfieldLife/
and click 'Join This Group!' 
Yahoo! Groups Links

* To visit your group on the 

[FairfieldLife] Re: Samadhi meditation rare...in any discipline!

2005-11-13 Thread akasha_108
Peter [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote:
 Bliss is, actually, quite stupid.

Well, I was talking to Bliss the other day and it said Peter was
stupid. :)







 Yahoo! Groups Sponsor ~-- 
Get fast access to your favorite Yahoo! Groups. Make Yahoo! your home page
http://us.click.yahoo.com/dpRU5A/wUILAA/yQLSAA/JjtolB/TM
~- 

To subscribe, send a message to:
[EMAIL PROTECTED]

Or go to: 
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/FairfieldLife/
and click 'Join This Group!' 
Yahoo! Groups Links

* To visit your group on the web, go to:
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/FairfieldLife/

* To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
[EMAIL PROTECTED]

* Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to:
http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
 




[FairfieldLife] California Housing Prices (was: Earth turns around the sun )

2005-11-13 Thread akasha_108
akasha_108 [EMAIL PROTECTED]wrote:

 jim_flanegin [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote:

 Well the rent to mortgage cost (after tax) in many parts of the bay
 area, and other high price areas are quite low, like 50% and less.
 They are hurt only if they feel the need to buy. Pay 2000 in rent
or 4000 in a mortgage. Rentals in sme areas a great deals -- and a
great way to ride out the bubble.

 Some will say, but I don't want to throw my money away in rent. At
 least with a house I amd building equity. False on so many levels.
 First, everyone is a renter. They either rent property, or the rent
 money to to buy housing. A million dollar home costs a lot of rent
on money. Just as wasted as property rent.

 Second, the only thing that makes owning more attractive,
financially, than renting when the rent to mortgage ratios are so low,
is the expectation of appreciation. But that train has left. Prices
 everywhere are leveling off or beginning to fall. And when the
 expectations for apprecation are no longer there, it becomes a
double whammy: no appreciation, and demand for housing falls thus bringing
 pressure for lower prices -- starting a depreciation expectation
 cycle. Thats when everyone tries to unload and prices plummet.

 Third, if you are paying 2000 in rent instead of 4000 in mortgage
for the same property, you are saving 2000 a month which can be saved,
 invested etc. Thats your rent equity building up and if there is
no or little price appreciation, it will far outstrip any equity build
up in property.

 Fourth, if one is paying interest only, they are not building up
any equity -- nothing is going to repay principal. And they may
actually be building up negative equity, which gets tacked onto the
loan in later years. The only equity build up is if prices keep
appreciating
 -- it becomes a game of the greater fool. Hold risky properties now
 with the hope someone will be foolish enough to buy at an
appreciated
 price in a flat or declining market in years hence.

 Fifth, international investors may be holding up the market now,
and maybe suffering from information lags -- being sold on price
trends of past years and not understanding the dynamics of the local
market. But after a year or two of flat and declining prices, the
bloom will be off the rose, and hot international money could flood
out of the area.

 By definition, international investors are renting their
properties. 50% rent to mortgage ratios may be bearable when prices
are appreciating 20-40% a year. But when that stops, for a couple of
 years, bam, many investors will try to unload. Thus putting more
 pressure on downward prices.


  For the last twenty years at least, through good times and bad,
  people have been predicting housing prices to go down here.
There is  about a 15% affordability rate in this area, with lots and
lots of overseas investor money mostly from Asia keeping prices high,
even through recessions.

 But there has never been sustained 15% affordability and 50% rent
to mortgage ratios. So the past is not a good predictor.
 
 And many parts of california had definite flattening and declines
 1985-95 or so. Certainly in San Diego and parts of LA/OC.
 I thought the bay area had such too -- maybe not.


...

 Actually per your above, an interest-only mortgage is actually
cheaper many times than renting is, 

The interest only phase payments can be near current rents. But the IO
phase only lasts 3-5 years. 10 Max.
And interest rates are rising. So payments could rise substantially --
particularly if we get into the 8% range.
And once regular ARM payments start in 3-5 years, the payments will
jump up again. I have seen reports where a 2k payment now could ballon
into a 5k + payment within a few years. If someone is just barely
qualifying for a IO loan now, at 30% of income, they might be faced
with payments in a few years of 60-70% of income. Its a disaster
waiting to happen.


 and you have the possibnable. lity of
building equity. 

Not during the interest only phase. Except for appreciation which is
becoming non-existant or negative.

Also, I don't know of anyone with a $500 per month
mortgage who has purchased here in the last 20 years.

Of course not. The point was a 500k total mortgage -- which a lot of
people who got mortgages in the past 5-15 years have mortgages under
this level and thus will not be hit by the proposed mortgage deduction
in the bay area -- (I think the proposed cap there is 450k.)

 And you make
the assumption that if one is renting, there are investments that
deliver equal returns over time to real estate. What are they?


Well you are making the huge assumtion, that RE will continue
appreciating in the Bay Area. The main point of my prior post is that
there are strong reasons in the fundamentals to beleive that the days
of appreciation are over for a long time. But in addition to that,
look at the current markets in california. San Diego. OC and LA are
seeing decling prices. IN Norcal, Sacramento

[FairfieldLife] Re: The Mahesh Kozlowski Effect, was Lynch - Now Crime, Abortion the DC study

2005-11-12 Thread akasha_108
authfriend [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote:
 why you refuse to do such a simple
 thing as supply some URLs that you claim
 already to have found.
 

And this is important, or even interesting, because ?





 Yahoo! Groups Sponsor ~-- 
Get fast access to your favorite Yahoo! Groups. Make Yahoo! your home page
http://us.click.yahoo.com/dpRU5A/wUILAA/yQLSAA/JjtolB/TM
~- 

To subscribe, send a message to:
[EMAIL PROTECTED]

Or go to: 
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/FairfieldLife/
and click 'Join This Group!' 
Yahoo! Groups Links

* To visit your group on the web, go to:
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/FairfieldLife/

* To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
[EMAIL PROTECTED]

* Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to:
http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
 




[FairfieldLife] Re: eating meat/ostrich anyone?

2005-11-11 Thread akasha_108
--- In FairfieldLife@yahoogroups.com, markmeredith2002
[EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote:

 --- In FairfieldLife@yahoogroups.com, akasha_108 [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote:
 
  Just a quick adder on the quality of protein in veg diets. Some people
  think you can't get enough quality protein from veg sources. Its just
  not true.
 snip
  
 There's the question of the body's ability to assimilate the
nutrients in foods.  

Agreed. Though a veg diet seems much more digestible to me. Tofu --
its gotta be more easily broken down than chicken, and certainly beef. 
 

 I tried for a long time to go veg. and be careful about getting
enough protein but felt low energy the whole time.  Maybe it was lack
of iron or B-vits, not protein.  Proper cooking (and or chopping), and
chewing is important. I often use a food processor to finely chop
veggies  -- for salads, or light low heat cooking -- to improve
absorbsion.  

Yes, one needs to supplement a veg diet with plenty of with b12. And
iron -- which can be obtained by good vegetables --- kale and chard in
particular. Its a myth that one needs beef for sufficient iron.


 Anyway, my body felt totally  different after eating meat compared
to a high-protein veg meal.  


Some times its the high carbs in a high protein veg meal. One can get
adequate protein from rice and beans -- but the carb load is so high,
it can have bad effects on the body, particularly energy levels -- and
on how one feels.
 
 I'm not discouraging people from veg. diets, just to say always go
by how your body/mind is feeling, not just the theory.

Yes, ultimately diet needs to make you feel good. But good research is
good too, so one is clear on what the body needs, and what foods
provide it. There are a lot of misinformation and mythhs out there
that a bit of research can dispell.






 Yahoo! Groups Sponsor ~-- 
Get fast access to your favorite Yahoo! Groups. Make Yahoo! your home page
http://us.click.yahoo.com/dpRU5A/wUILAA/yQLSAA/JjtolB/TM
~- 

To subscribe, send a message to:
[EMAIL PROTECTED]

Or go to: 
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/FairfieldLife/
and click 'Join This Group!' 
Yahoo! Groups Links

* To visit your group on the web, go to:
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/FairfieldLife/

* To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
[EMAIL PROTECTED]

* Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to:
http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
 




[FairfieldLife] Re: Would you have allowed Bill Gates to be born?

2005-11-11 Thread akasha_108
--- In FairfieldLife@yahoogroups.com, uns_tressor [EMAIL PROTECTED]
wrote:

 --- In FairfieldLife@yahoogroups.com, Rick Archer 
 [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote:
 
  on 11/10/05 8:30 PM, uns_tressor at [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote:
  
   --- In FairfieldLife@yahoogroups.com, shempmcgurk 
 [EMAIL PROTECTED]
   wrote: 
   Would you have allowed Bill Gates to be born?
   Advances in prenatal genetic testing pose tough questions 
   http://msnbc.msn.com/id/7899821/  
   Who needs Bill Gates? No, I don't mean who needs a gazillionaire
   corporate titan, a man whose company, Microsoft, took in 
 billions of
   dollars last year by controlling nearly all the software used to 
 run
   nearly every computer on the planet.
   
   No, I mean, literally, who needs him?  If you could go back in 
 time
   and stop the birth of the world's most famous nerd, would you?
   
   You probably answered my question with a no. Whatever Gates' 
 sins
   may be, he is the father of a computer revolution...
   
   He might have earned that moniker if it hadn't
   been for Charles Babbage 150 years ago, or
   Alan Turing or Clive Sinclair who created the concept
   of home computer. History will see Gates as someone
   who used the chance for bare faced profit, making
   £75,000,000,000 selling faulty goods. No car manufacturer
   could get away with it. And we put up with it.
  
  He's leaving comparatively little to his children. Donating 
  billions to AIDS research and other worthy causes...
 
 ...which tend to be glamorous causes rather than assisting
 those who spend hours stripping and re-rigging his products
 because they are faulty.
 Uns.


I am pretty happy with XP Pro. Maybe your needs are much more demanding. 






 Yahoo! Groups Sponsor ~-- 
Get fast access to your favorite Yahoo! Groups. Make Yahoo! your home page
http://us.click.yahoo.com/dpRU5A/wUILAA/yQLSAA/JjtolB/TM
~- 

To subscribe, send a message to:
[EMAIL PROTECTED]

Or go to: 
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/FairfieldLife/
and click 'Join This Group!' 
Yahoo! Groups Links

* To visit your group on the web, go to:
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/FairfieldLife/

* To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
[EMAIL PROTECTED]

* Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to:
http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
 




[FairfieldLife] Re: eating meat/ostrich anyone?

2005-11-11 Thread akasha_108
--- In FairfieldLife@yahoogroups.com, markmeredith2002
[EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote:

 --- In FairfieldLife@yahoogroups.com, akasha_108 [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote:
 
  Just a quick adder on the quality of protein in veg diets. Some
people think you can't get enough quality protein from veg sources.
Its just not true.

 snip

 There's the question of the body's ability to assimilate the
nutrients in foods.

Agreed. Though a veg diet seems much more digestible to me. Tofu --
its gotta be more easily broken down than chicken, and certainly beef.


 I tried for a long time to go veg. and be careful about getting
enough protein but felt low energy the whole time. 

Maybe it was lack of iron or B-vits, not protein. Proper cooking (and
or chopping), and chewing is important. I often use a food processor
to finely chop veggies -- for salads, or light low heat cooking -- to
improve absorbsion.

And yes, one needs to supplement a veg diet with plenty of with b12.
And iron -- which can be obtained by good vegetables --- kale and
chard in particular. Its a myth that one needs beef for sufficient iron.


 Anyway, my body felt totally different after eating meat compared
to a high-protein veg meal.


Some times its the high carbs in a high protein veg meal. One can get
adequate protein from rice and beans -- but the carb load is so high,
it can have bad effects on the body, particularly energy levels -- and
on how one feels.


 I'm not discouraging people from veg. diets, just to say always go
by how your body/mind is feeling, not just the theory.

Yes, ultimately diet needs to make you feel good. But good research is
good too, so one is clear on what the body needs, and what foods
provide it. There are a lot of misinformation and mythhs out there
that a bit of research can dispel.










 Yahoo! Groups Sponsor ~-- 
Get fast access to your favorite Yahoo! Groups. Make Yahoo! your home page
http://us.click.yahoo.com/dpRU5A/wUILAA/yQLSAA/JjtolB/TM
~- 

To subscribe, send a message to:
[EMAIL PROTECTED]

Or go to: 
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/FairfieldLife/
and click 'Join This Group!' 
Yahoo! Groups Links

* To visit your group on the web, go to:
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/FairfieldLife/

* To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
[EMAIL PROTECTED]

* Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to:
http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
 




[FairfieldLife] DC Abortion Rates

2005-11-11 Thread akasha_108
http://www.guttmacher.org/pubs/state_ab_pt/district_of_columbia.pdf

Drawing on the work of economist Steven Levitt, U of Chicago, showing
a causal relationship between abortions and crime rates 16-22 years
later, the aborion rates in DC during the 70s are an important factor
in understanding crime rate trends in DC. The rate for violent crimes
was cut in half from the mid 90's to the present. 

Looking at abortion rates per 1000 women in DC in the 70's the rate
was about 10 times the national average 250 in 1973 and around 200 for
most of the 70's compared to a national rate of around 25- 30. Thus,
lagged abortion it would appear, is part quite an important factor to
control  for when evaluating the impact of other crime reduction
factors. Ignoring lagged abortion rates will tend to overstamake any
crime reduction measure being evaluated in the 1990-2000 time frame.

I will add abortion rates in DC broken down by age cohort, as control
variables in the previous discussed ME regression model and see how
this affects ME impacts.






 Yahoo! Groups Sponsor ~-- 
Get fast access to your favorite Yahoo! Groups. Make Yahoo! your home page
http://us.click.yahoo.com/dpRU5A/wUILAA/yQLSAA/JjtolB/TM
~- 

To subscribe, send a message to:
[EMAIL PROTECTED]

Or go to: 
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/FairfieldLife/
and click 'Join This Group!' 
Yahoo! Groups Links

* To visit your group on the web, go to:
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/FairfieldLife/

* To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
[EMAIL PROTECTED]

* Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to:
http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
 




[FairfieldLife] Re: Was Lynch - Now Crime, Abortion the DC study

2005-11-11 Thread akasha_108
--- In FairfieldLife@yahoogroups.com, Peter [EMAIL PROTECTED] 
 Perhaps MMY has Cosmic ADHD? ;-)
 

Like a stick through water, perhaps. A minute later, what stick?







 Yahoo! Groups Sponsor ~-- 
Get fast access to your favorite Yahoo! Groups. Make Yahoo! your home page
http://us.click.yahoo.com/dpRU5A/wUILAA/yQLSAA/JjtolB/TM
~- 

To subscribe, send a message to:
[EMAIL PROTECTED]

Or go to: 
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/FairfieldLife/
and click 'Join This Group!' 
Yahoo! Groups Links

* To visit your group on the web, go to:
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/FairfieldLife/

* To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
[EMAIL PROTECTED]

* Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to:
http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
 




[FairfieldLife] Re: 'Ali Stings Bush'

2005-11-11 Thread akasha_108
He's good for a pep rally, but the actually nitty-gritty of
 sound policy development seems to be beyond him. 


Though I am in the minority, I cringe at his pep rally attempts. I was
embarrassed as he spoke from the bullhorn in the pile of rubble, his
arm around the fireman. It just seemed unreal and shallow. Ditto for
the flightsuit affair -- Mission accomplished. It all seems
manufactured to me. I get the feeling of nails scractching a chalk
board when I see him at these affairs.





 Yahoo! Groups Sponsor ~-- 
Get fast access to your favorite Yahoo! Groups. Make Yahoo! your home page
http://us.click.yahoo.com/dpRU5A/wUILAA/yQLSAA/JjtolB/TM
~- 

To subscribe, send a message to:
[EMAIL PROTECTED]

Or go to: 
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/FairfieldLife/
and click 'Join This Group!' 
Yahoo! Groups Links

* To visit your group on the web, go to:
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/FairfieldLife/

* To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
[EMAIL PROTECTED]

* Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to:
http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
 




[FairfieldLife] Re: Was Lynch - Now Crime, Abortion the DC study

2005-11-11 Thread akasha_108
--- In FairfieldLife@yahoogroups.com, Peter [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote:

 
 
 --- akasha_108 [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote:
 
  --- In FairfieldLife@yahoogroups.com, Peter
  [EMAIL PROTECTED] 
   Perhaps MMY has Cosmic ADHD? ;-)
   
  
  Like a stick through water, perhaps. A minute later,
  what stick?
 
 Exactly! Who told you to use the stick? At least it's
 not Alzheimers where you forget what a stick is. With
 ADD you struggle to organize the parts across time.
 With Alzheimers you forget what the parts are.

yes -- in general.

But I took care of my mom with advanced Alzhiemers for 3 years before
it did her in. Its interesting to watch the disease progress. It
wasn't that she forgot the stick in many cases -- but she could not
verbalize it. For example, she may have forgotten her dogs names, but
she knew them and was loving towards them. She couldn't tell you who
Cary Grant was, but she loved watching his movies on a big screen TV.
And sometimes, she was stuck in the past as a girl or teen with very
clear memories of such times. And they dominated at times. For
periods, she was insistant that she had to go home because her
mother was waiting for her. She could talk in detail about her
(childhood) house and mother -- but had no recognition of her
present house of 20 years. It was very clear to her that her home
(childhood) was just down the road a bit, and she would strike out,
walking down the road to go home. (under watchful eye -- trying to
dissuade her was next to impossible, a la I HAVE to get home. Mother
is waiting!)


 





 Yahoo! Groups Sponsor ~-- 
Get fast access to your favorite Yahoo! Groups. Make Yahoo! your home page
http://us.click.yahoo.com/dpRU5A/wUILAA/yQLSAA/JjtolB/TM
~- 

To subscribe, send a message to:
[EMAIL PROTECTED]

Or go to: 
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/FairfieldLife/
and click 'Join This Group!' 
Yahoo! Groups Links

* To visit your group on the web, go to:
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/FairfieldLife/

* To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
[EMAIL PROTECTED]

* Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to:
http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
 





[FairfieldLife] Re: Was Lynch - Now Crime, Abortion the DC study

2005-11-11 Thread akasha_108
--- In FairfieldLife@yahoogroups.com, Peter [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote:

 
 
 --- L B Shriver [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote:
 
 LB, your last post in this thread was truncated, so I
 couldn't include it, but I wanted to compliment you on
 your observations. As you note, science is, at its
 best, an international, public discourse. I can
 understand MIU's reluctance to hand over the raw data
 for reasons that have nothing to do with this
 discourse. All movement research is for one purpose
 only: to promote the teaching of TM/TM-Siddhis. It's
 for PR only. Those in charge, MMY, aren't interested
 in developing a coherent theory of the field effects
 of consciousness. They just want to sell TM. The MIU
 researchers won't hand over the raw data because the
 ME is very weak, almost noise, not pattern. It can
 easily be shown not to exist using alternative, and
 more traditional, statistical methods used in this
 type of research.


Yes. 

And in statistical methods such as multi-variate regression (and ARIMA
which they used -- which can be thought of as a specialized subset of
of regression methods), a large number of model specifications can
be developed and tested. 

(A model specification being the articulation of dependent variable
with various control and explanatory variables aka independent
variables. Such as: crime is a function of weather, LE funding and
unemployment. OR, crime = f(weather, lagged abortion rates, education
levels) OR, crime = f(severity of punisment levels, conviction rates
(agressive prossecution), police on the street. OR crime = f(lagged
head start programs, lagged pre-natal care, lagged school lunch
programs, and lagged classroom size).

Many, many model specifications can be tested. A good analyst and
research team will look to at least half a dozen key parameters to
evaluate how well each model explains the variations in the dependent
variable: i) overall model fit via R^2 and global F test, ii) the
significance of each independent (control) variable, aka t-tests,
i.e., was it a random effect?, iii) were the independent variables
correlated with each other (a bad thing, called multi-collinearity),
iv) are the variables correlated with past values of themselves aka
autocorrelation (a bad thing), v) are the residuals random or skewed
relative to the dependent variable aka hetroscadisity, (a bad thing),
is the model specification consistent with theory, aka does it tell
a reasonable and plausible story -- or were a million independent
variables tested, and chosen ONLY due to good fit (aka, which chan
happen via 'spurious corrleation but really are just randome effects,
vii) is the data good, viii, were the number of independent
varibales less than 10-20x the number of observations, etc.  

Either by inexperience, or via intent to manipulate and arrive at a
pre-selected result, a researcher can shoose model specifications that
show a particular effect, via one paramenter, but are weak in other
parameters. But these parameters or diagnostics (like the eight above)
 can be swept under the carpet and not cited in the research results,
or worded in a best-spin sort of way (characteristic of some TMO
reseaarchers, IMO). 
 
Thus, its critical to make the full original dataset available to
other researchers to test the hypothesis via their approach to model
specification and selection. If a suboptimal specification were chosen
by the original researchers, because one or two paramenters shined,
but others sucked, this illusion can be uncovered by indepedendent
analysis and comparision of the results of different model
specifications -- and the full spectrum of the relevant parameters and
diagnostics associated with them. Or it may be found that alternative
model specifications, strong on all levels, produces a different
conclusion than the original research. This may indicates something
important is missing in one or both models, and more analysis is
necessary.










 Yahoo! Groups Sponsor ~-- 
Get fast access to your favorite Yahoo! Groups. Make Yahoo! your home page
http://us.click.yahoo.com/dpRU5A/wUILAA/yQLSAA/JjtolB/TM
~- 

To subscribe, send a message to:
[EMAIL PROTECTED]

Or go to: 
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/FairfieldLife/
and click 'Join This Group!' 
Yahoo! Groups Links

* To visit your group on the web, go to:
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/FairfieldLife/

* To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
[EMAIL PROTECTED]

* Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to:
http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
 




[FairfieldLife] Re: Was Lynch - Now Crime, Abortion the DC study

2005-11-11 Thread akasha_108
--- In FairfieldLife@yahoogroups.com, Peter [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote:

 
 
 --- akasha_108 [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote:
 
 snip
 
   
  Thus, its critical to make the full original dataset
  available to
  other researchers to test the hypothesis via their
  approach to model
  specification and selection. If a suboptimal
  specification were chosen
  by the original researchers, because one or two
  paramenters shined,
  but others sucked, this illusion can be uncovered
  by indepedendent
  analysis and comparision of the results of different
  model
  specifications -- and the full spectrum of the
  relevant parameters and
  diagnostics associated with them. Or it may be found
  that alternative
  model specifications, strong on all levels, produces
  a different
  conclusion than the original research. This may
  indicates something
  important is missing in one or both models, and more
  analysis is
  necessary.
 
 And in good science this discourse goes back and forth
 with re-analysis of data, arguments for and against
 stated conclusions and out of this seeming mess really
 good, scientific advances come about. (On a side note,
 if you follow the topics in scientific journal
 articles  it is amusing how rival camps all but call
 each other assholes in their publcations)
 Unfortunately the TMO is not interersted in having its
 ME research looked at because they know it is not
 robust. It's a very faint whisper of pattern in a sea
 of random noise that can only be seen if you look at
 it in a very particular way.
 

Yes. 

Its amusing how some hold that publication in a peer-reviewed journal
is the end-all and be-all of research. Its really an initial screening
for obvious errors. And depending on the status of the journal, the
degree and depth of review by peers may vary substantially from
journal to journal. Regardless, publication is the beginning of the
process, not the end. Its when the real peer review happens: a wider
audience reads the paper, sends comments and issues to letters to the
editor, and often quite a tossle of view proceeds. Which strengthens
subsequent analysis. 

A second level of substantiation of a pulished article is does it
generate enough interest so that more original research is conducted
in the topic area. And is the analysis and methodology strong enough
in the original publication to generate funding for the additional
research.

Since the publication of ME research, it has not, to my knowledge,
generated any non-TMO reasreach or funding. That speaks to the
strength and credibility of the original research.






 Yahoo! Groups Sponsor ~-- 
Get fast access to your favorite Yahoo! Groups. Make Yahoo! your home page
http://us.click.yahoo.com/dpRU5A/wUILAA/yQLSAA/JjtolB/TM
~- 

To subscribe, send a message to:
[EMAIL PROTECTED]

Or go to: 
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/FairfieldLife/
and click 'Join This Group!' 
Yahoo! Groups Links

* To visit your group on the web, go to:
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/FairfieldLife/

* To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
[EMAIL PROTECTED]

* Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to:
http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
 





[FairfieldLife] Re: Was Lynch - Now Crime, Abortion the DC study

2005-11-11 Thread akasha_108
--- In FairfieldLife@yahoogroups.com, authfriend [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote:

 --- In FairfieldLife@yahoogroups.com, akasha_108 [EMAIL PROTECTED] 
 wrote:
 snip
  Thus, its critical to make the full original dataset available to
  other researchers to test the hypothesis via their approach to 
  model specification and selection.
 
 Just to make sure several different things don't
 get conflated here (again):
 
 
 The raw data--the crime and other stats--used in *both*
 studies, however, were publicly available.


Well, just to make sure several different things don't
get conflated here (again):


You seem to equate public availabilty of FBI crime stats with all the
raw data .. were publically available. First, there is a differnece
between publically available and easily accessable. As I have stated
in prior posts, the weekly FBI stats are not available on line prior
to 1995. While they are probably is some library, finding them copying
them, and keyboard entering them into a research data set is time
consuming and restricive -- and not what is meant by make the full
original dataset available to other researchers.

Second the research data set includes much more than crime stats. It
includes weather data (again hard to find 12-20 years later in a
weekly form) and the socio-economic and LE data used as control
variables. Locating such data is more difficult than obtaining the
crime statistics which are per your words, publically available.

When a data set from a study is made available it is either put on
line, or sent in digital form, on CD for example. At a minimum, a hard
copy of the data is provided -- though this is a bit of a
constsraining option -- a hurdle placed on new researchers wishing to
duplicate or extend the analysis.

As far as computer output from the modeling, its standard to at least
provide a detailed summary of key diognastics and paramters for the
final model specificatation, and for key rejected specifications, and
the reasoning for rejection (e.g, high multi-colineearity or
hetroscadasity.) Full sets of computer output are not required, though
in this age of easy mass archiving -- on-line or CDs, there is no good
reason not to. Regardless, an independent researcher, if they have the
dataset, can rerun the analysis, and obtain all the intermediate steps
and diagnostics they care to analyze.

I hope this clears up this issue so we don't have to keep repeating it.







 Yahoo! Groups Sponsor ~-- 
Get fast access to your favorite Yahoo! Groups. Make Yahoo! your home page
http://us.click.yahoo.com/dpRU5A/wUILAA/yQLSAA/JjtolB/TM
~- 

To subscribe, send a message to:
[EMAIL PROTECTED]

Or go to: 
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/FairfieldLife/
and click 'Join This Group!' 
Yahoo! Groups Links

* To visit your group on the web, go to:
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/FairfieldLife/

* To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
[EMAIL PROTECTED]

* Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to:
http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
 





[FairfieldLife] Re: Was Lynch - Now Crime, Abortion the DC study

2005-11-11 Thread akasha_108
--- In FairfieldLife@yahoogroups.com, Rick Archer [EMAIL PROTECTED]
wrote:

 on 11/11/05 11:44 AM, Peter at [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote:
  
  And in good science this discourse goes back and forth
  with re-analysis of data, arguments for and against
  stated conclusions and out of this seeming mess really
  good, scientific advances come about. (On a side note,
  if you follow the topics in scientific journal
  articles  it is amusing how rival camps all but call
  each other assholes in their publcations)
  Unfortunately the TMO is not interersted in having its
  ME research looked at because they know it is not
  robust. It's a very faint whisper of pattern in a sea
  of random noise that can only be seen if you look at
  it in a very particular way.
 
 And yet Hagelin brags repeatedly that the ME is the most verified
thing in the history of science. Only one in a gazillion odds that it
could be chance. P values to 25 decimal places or some such thing.

Which crappy model spcifications and bad out of whack parameters in
other areas can create. See my adjacent post on this. Thats why you
need to look at the full range of relevant parameters and makes sure
they are witnin acceptable bounds.









 Yahoo! Groups Sponsor ~-- 
Get fast access to your favorite Yahoo! Groups. Make Yahoo! your home page
http://us.click.yahoo.com/dpRU5A/wUILAA/yQLSAA/JjtolB/TM
~- 

To subscribe, send a message to:
[EMAIL PROTECTED]

Or go to: 
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/FairfieldLife/
and click 'Join This Group!' 
Yahoo! Groups Links

* To visit your group on the web, go to:
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/FairfieldLife/

* To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
[EMAIL PROTECTED]

* Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to:
http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
 




[FairfieldLife] Re: Was Lynch - Now Crime, Abortion the DC study

2005-11-11 Thread akasha_108
--- In FairfieldLife@yahoogroups.com, authfriend [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote:

 --- In FairfieldLife@yahoogroups.com, akasha_108 [EMAIL PROTECTED] 
 wrote:
 
  --- In FairfieldLife@yahoogroups.com, Rick Archer 
 [EMAIL PROTECTED]
  wrote:
  
   on 11/11/05 11:44 AM, Peter at [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote:

And in good science this discourse goes back and forth
with re-analysis of data, arguments for and against
stated conclusions and out of this seeming mess really
good, scientific advances come about. (On a side note,
if you follow the topics in scientific journal
articles  it is amusing how rival camps all but call
each other assholes in their publcations)
Unfortunately the TMO is not interersted in having its
ME research looked at because they know it is not
robust. It's a very faint whisper of pattern in a sea
of random noise that can only be seen if you look at
it in a very particular way.
   
   And yet Hagelin brags repeatedly that the ME is the most
verified  thing in the history of science. Only one in a gazillion
odds that it  could be chance. P values to 25 decimal places or some
such thing.
  
  Which crappy model spcifications and bad out of whack parameters
in other areas can create. See my adjacent post on this. Thats why you
need to look at the full range of relevant parameters and makes sure
they are witnin acceptable bounds.
 
 Bear in mind that there's nobody on this forum in a
 position to defend the ME studies.  It's easy to make
 folks think you've debunked something when they aren't
 able to see a response to the debunking.


I simply made  a general statement, not support or debunking any
particular study. The operative word is can. 

General statement: A crappy model specification can create the false
appearance of high t values (e.g., p.0xx). 

Specific statment about a specific model: none

The general statement may or may not apply to the ME study or any
other study. One would have to look at the specifics of the study. 

The point being, a p .xxx is not necessary golden. One
needs to look at all the parameters coming out of the analysis.








 Yahoo! Groups Sponsor ~-- 
Get fast access to your favorite Yahoo! Groups. Make Yahoo! your home page
http://us.click.yahoo.com/dpRU5A/wUILAA/yQLSAA/JjtolB/TM
~- 

To subscribe, send a message to:
[EMAIL PROTECTED]

Or go to: 
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/FairfieldLife/
and click 'Join This Group!' 
Yahoo! Groups Links

* To visit your group on the web, go to:
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/FairfieldLife/

* To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
[EMAIL PROTECTED]

* Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to:
http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
 




[FairfieldLife] Re: Was Lynch - Now Crime, Abortion the DC study

2005-11-10 Thread akasha_108
authfriend [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote:
 In other words, I don't believe akasha is in a
 position even to guess at flaws in the study or to
 say the results didn't reflect the reality unless he
 knows *exactly* what methodology the researchers
 used.  He has to be able to see the published study
 before he can make a relevant evaluation.

The summary appears quite clear -- they did not use the control
variables in the primary analysis. I don't need to read the full
study, which I seek to, to raise concerns about that and other things
stated in the summary. And I can speculate as to the data issues they
faced, having climbed that hill many times in various analysis
projects, and why they did what they did (as outlined in the summary).
 Speculation is not exactly a searing critique.

On the same token, I suppose its hard for you to defend the study
without having it at hand. 

(Just curious, did you read the full study in the past? But no longer
have a copy?)
 
 I'm not at all sure he can come up with his own
 method, run all the numbers, get different results,
 and on that basis, without knowing what methodology
 they were using, say there was something wrong with
 their results.

I guess, if thats what i were doing, above. Which I am not. Nice
strawman. First I am using the most standard and conventional methods
for this type of study -- multi-variate regression. I did not suddenly
invent regression for this analysis. Second, who knows if I will get
the same or a different result than them. Its a work in progress. I
shared some preliminary exploratory results, based on a surprising
strong little initial model. As I get better data, I will undoubtedly
be able to develop better models. Third, I am approaching the analysis
from different angles, more angles perhaps, than they did. Thats a
good thing. For example, looking at personal crimes, using a unified
model for the complete analysis, etc. Fourth, I am not using my
analysis as a basis to critique the oringinal study. I am doing it to
understand the ME and verify or reject it based on the actual numbers.
For now, I would rather debate my own analysis than some analysis done
12 years ago in which the data used is not apparently readily
available, nor the study itself. 







 Yahoo! Groups Sponsor ~-- 
Get fast access to your favorite Yahoo! Groups. Make Yahoo! your home page
http://us.click.yahoo.com/dpRU5A/wUILAA/yQLSAA/JjtolB/TM
~- 

To subscribe, send a message to:
[EMAIL PROTECTED]

Or go to: 
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/FairfieldLife/
and click 'Join This Group!' 
Yahoo! Groups Links

* To visit your group on the web, go to:
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/FairfieldLife/

* To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
[EMAIL PROTECTED]

* Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to:
http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
 




[FairfieldLife] Re: Other Earth-like worlds?

2005-11-10 Thread akasha_108
--- In FairfieldLife@yahoogroups.com, Rory Goff [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote:

 --- In FairfieldLife@yahoogroups.com, akasha_108 [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote:
 
  
  Can you chant all 1008 names from memory
 
 
 *lol* I haven't even finished chanting them all *from the book* yet!

I was just curious. Some folks do chant from memory. I have always
thought would be nice.





 Yahoo! Groups Sponsor ~-- 
Get fast access to your favorite Yahoo! Groups. Make Yahoo! your home page
http://us.click.yahoo.com/dpRU5A/wUILAA/yQLSAA/JjtolB/TM
~- 

To subscribe, send a message to:
[EMAIL PROTECTED]

Or go to: 
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/FairfieldLife/
and click 'Join This Group!' 
Yahoo! Groups Links

* To visit your group on the web, go to:
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/FairfieldLife/

* To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
[EMAIL PROTECTED]

* Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to:
http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
 




[FairfieldLife] Re: Was Lynch - Now Crime, Abortion the DC study

2005-11-10 Thread akasha_108
--- In FairfieldLife@yahoogroups.com, Peter [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote:

 Akasha, did they use an interupted time series
 analysis? I'm assuming with my baby stats background
 that this would have been appropriate.  

Yes, it appears they used an ARIMA / Box-Jenkins model. Which is
efficient for impact anlysis with highly seasonal and autocorrelated
data -- typically financial data. The crime data may have seasonality
but does not appear to be that strongly autocorrelated. And
traditioanlly, it requires 5-6 seasons of data to be reliable. Since
one of their models was only for 1993 data (from the summary) it
raises some questions. 

IMO, its too bad they did not use a more generalized regression
approach. Anything that can be done in ARIMA can be done in a
regression model specification -- by using differening and lagging of
variables, and use of dummy variables for impacts and seasonality.
ARIMA, IMO, is a bit of a black box, regression models are much more
transparent. And regression allows, at least is easier for, testing a
large number of independent control variables in a unified model. 

The summary states that temperature was the only control variable used
in the primary analysis for the 1 year and 5 year analysis. Then,
later, they tested a range of social / LE control variables to show,
per their satisfaction, that the contol variables were insignificant
in effecting the results of the 1 and 5 year models. Aside from being
methodologically weak, of not using  variables in the primary models,
 this findng is counter intuitive and contradicts many crime studies
where factors beyond temperature have a clear impact on crime levels. 

I suspect, they were forced to test the control variables outside the
primary analysis because of different time intervals for the relevant
data. Often the socio-economic / LE data is available in annual form,
and the impact analysis -- crime and temp data was weekly. When we
locate a copy of the study, we will have a better idea.







 Yahoo! Groups Sponsor ~-- 
Get fast access to your favorite Yahoo! Groups. Make Yahoo! your home page
http://us.click.yahoo.com/dpRU5A/wUILAA/yQLSAA/JjtolB/TM
~- 

To subscribe, send a message to:
[EMAIL PROTECTED]

Or go to: 
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/FairfieldLife/
and click 'Join This Group!' 
Yahoo! Groups Links

* To visit your group on the web, go to:
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/FairfieldLife/

* To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
[EMAIL PROTECTED]

* Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to:
http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
 




[FairfieldLife] Re: Was Lynch - Now Crime, Abortion the DC study

2005-11-10 Thread akasha_108
authfriend [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote:
 
   I'm not at all sure he can come up with his own
   method, run all the numbers, get different results,
   and on that basis, without knowing what methodology
   they were using, say there was something wrong with
   their results.
  
  I guess, if thats what i were doing, above. Which I am not. Nice
  strawman. First I am using the most standard and conventional 
  methods for this type of study -- multi-variate regression. I did 
  not suddenly invent regression for this analysis.
 
 I suspect you're well aware that isn't what I meant.

Ok. What did you mean by I'm not at all sure he can come up with his
own method? 

I assume you agree that the rest of your statement, I'm not at all
sure he can run all the numbers, get different results,  and on
that basis, without knowing what methodology they were using, say
there was something wrong with their results was misguided, per the
repsonse below.

-
Akasha full prior response:
I guess, if thats what i were doing, above. Which I am not. Nice
strawman. First I am using the most standard and conventional methods
for this type of study -- multi-variate regression. I did not suddenly
invent regression for this analysis. Second, who knows if I will get
the same or a different result than them. Its a work in progress. I
shared some preliminary exploratory results, based on a surprising
strong little initial model. As I get better data, I will undoubtedly
be able to develop better models. Third, I am approaching the analysis
from different angles, more angles perhaps, than they did. Thats a
good thing. For example, looking at personal crimes, using a unified
model for the complete analysis, etc. Fourth, I am not using my
analysis as a basis to critique the oringinal study. I am doing it to
understand the ME and verify or reject it based on the actual numbers.
For now, I would rather debate my own analysis than some analysis done
12 years ago in which the data used is not apparently readily
available, nor the study itself.






 Yahoo! Groups Sponsor ~-- 
Get fast access to your favorite Yahoo! Groups. Make Yahoo! your home page
http://us.click.yahoo.com/dpRU5A/wUILAA/yQLSAA/JjtolB/TM
~- 

To subscribe, send a message to:
[EMAIL PROTECTED]

Or go to: 
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/FairfieldLife/
and click 'Join This Group!' 
Yahoo! Groups Links

* To visit your group on the web, go to:
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/FairfieldLife/

* To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
[EMAIL PROTECTED]

* Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to:
http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
 




[FairfieldLife] Re: Was Lynch - Now Crime, Abortion the DC study

2005-11-10 Thread akasha_108
akasha_108 [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote:

 authfriend [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote:
  
I'm not at all sure he can come up with his own
method, run all the numbers, get different results,
and on that basis, without knowing what methodology
they were using, say there was something wrong with
their results.
   
   I guess, if thats what i were doing, above. Which I am not. Nice
   strawman. First I am using the most standard and conventional 
   methods for this type of study -- multi-variate regression. I
did not suddenly invent regression for this analysis.

J:
  I suspect you're well aware that isn't what I meant.

A:
 Ok. What did you mean by I'm not at all sure he can come up with
his  own method? 

J:
 And I also suspect you know what I *did* mean.
 
A:
 I assume you agree that the rest of your statement, I'm not at all
 sure he can run all the numbers, get different results,  and on
 that basis, without knowing what methodology they were using, say
 there was something wrong with their results was misguided, per the
 repsonse below.


J:  Nope, don't agree.


A: 
 -
 Akasha full prior response:
I guess, if thats what i were doing, above. Which I am not. Nice
strawman. First I am using the most standard and conventional methods
for this type of study -- multi-variate regression. I did not suddenly
invent regression for this analysis. Second, who knows if I will get
the same or a different result than them. Its a work in progress. I
shared some preliminary exploratory results, based on a surprising
strong little initial model. As I get better data, I will undoubtedly
be able to develop better models. Third, I am approaching the analysis
from different angles, more angles perhaps, than they did. Thats a
good thing. For example, looking at personal crimes, using a unified
model for the complete analysis, etc. Fourth, I am not using my
analysis as a basis to critique the oringinal study. I am doing it to
understand the ME and verify or reject it based on the actual numbers.
For now, I would rather debate my own analysis than some analysis done
12 years ago in which the data used is not apparently readily
available, nor the study itself.


===
Akasha:

OK. aside from non-answers and short statements of disageements, you
you care to share why? You make strong accusations and then waffle
when asked to clarify.

1) What did you mean by I'm not at all sure he can come up with his 
own method?  It was not clear to me, thus I asked

2)Do you agree that multi-variate regression is a most standard and
conventional methods for this type of study? Or do  you have no basis
for knowing?

3) Do you realize that I don't know if I will get the same or a
different result than them, that its a work in progress? 


4) Do you understand that I am approaching the analysis from different
angles, more angles perhaps, than they did?


5) Do you understand that I am not using my analysis as a basis to
critique the oringinal study. I am doing it to understand the ME and
verify or reject it based on the actual numbers?

If you do understand any or all of the above, how can you say I'm not
at all sure he can run all the numbers, get different results, 
and on that basis, without knowing what methodology they were using,
say there was something wrong with their results? It appears to be
contradictory. Again I am curious as to your logic chain here. It
appears flawed. Enlighten me.








 Yahoo! Groups Sponsor ~-- 
Get fast access to your favorite Yahoo! Groups. Make Yahoo! your home page
http://us.click.yahoo.com/dpRU5A/wUILAA/yQLSAA/JjtolB/TM
~- 

To subscribe, send a message to:
[EMAIL PROTECTED]

Or go to: 
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/FairfieldLife/
and click 'Join This Group!' 
Yahoo! Groups Links

* To visit your group on the web, go to:
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/FairfieldLife/

* To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
[EMAIL PROTECTED]

* Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to:
http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
 




[FairfieldLife] Re: A book you might enjoy

2005-11-10 Thread akasha_108
Peter [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote:
  That's exactly what the people who drank the
  kool-aid in Guyana did.
  
  Scary.
 
 Yes, but you bring it to an absurd extreme. I think
 few would follow a master's directive to kill
 themselves. I wouldn't care if it was a test or not,
 I wouldn't do it. The dance with a master is as
 complex as one's attachments. MMY in these examples is
 just honing in for a specific attachment kill.

 
But dude, oh yea of little faith. Like, dude, don't you remember that
master-dude who told the disciple-dude to jump off the cliff, and he
did without hesitation, and the master climbed down, picked up all the
scattered gory pieces of the student-dude, and brought the dude back
to life. Way kewl! I'm up for that man. Totally!






 Yahoo! Groups Sponsor ~-- 
Get fast access to your favorite Yahoo! Groups. Make Yahoo! your home page
http://us.click.yahoo.com/dpRU5A/wUILAA/yQLSAA/JjtolB/TM
~- 

To subscribe, send a message to:
[EMAIL PROTECTED]

Or go to: 
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/FairfieldLife/
and click 'Join This Group!' 
Yahoo! Groups Links

* To visit your group on the web, go to:
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/FairfieldLife/

* To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
[EMAIL PROTECTED]

* Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to:
http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
 




[FairfieldLife] Re: MUM no FFL

2005-11-10 Thread akasha_108
--- In FairfieldLife@yahoogroups.com, Peter [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote:
 
 and John was told to have
 sex with no more than 12 different women in one month.

All at the same time? Did he get that Krishna/gopi siddhi? Lucky dude.

(he may not be a big dick, but he has a lot of them, apparently.)











 Yahoo! Groups Sponsor ~-- 
Get fast access to your favorite Yahoo! Groups. Make Yahoo! your home page
http://us.click.yahoo.com/dpRU5A/wUILAA/yQLSAA/JjtolB/TM
~- 

To subscribe, send a message to:
[EMAIL PROTECTED]

Or go to: 
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/FairfieldLife/
and click 'Join This Group!' 
Yahoo! Groups Links

* To visit your group on the web, go to:
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/FairfieldLife/

* To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
[EMAIL PROTECTED]

* Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to:
http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
 




[FairfieldLife] Re: MUM no FFL

2005-11-10 Thread akasha_108
 Peter [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote:
 It was the same meeting in which Bevan was directed to
 stop screwing married women and John was told to have
 sex with no more than 12 different women in one month.

Was that the same meeting where the faculty senate voted to damn
democracy?







 Yahoo! Groups Sponsor ~-- 
Get fast access to your favorite Yahoo! Groups. Make Yahoo! your home page
http://us.click.yahoo.com/dpRU5A/wUILAA/yQLSAA/JjtolB/TM
~- 

To subscribe, send a message to:
[EMAIL PROTECTED]

Or go to: 
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/FairfieldLife/
and click 'Join This Group!' 
Yahoo! Groups Links

* To visit your group on the web, go to:
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/FairfieldLife/

* To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
[EMAIL PROTECTED]

* Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to:
http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
 





[FairfieldLife] Re: A book you might enjoy

2005-11-10 Thread akasha_108
--- In FairfieldLife@yahoogroups.com, Peter [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote:

 
 
 --- akasha_108 [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote:
 
  Peter [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote:
That's exactly what the people who drank the
kool-aid in Guyana did.

Scary.
   
   Yes, but you bring it to an absurd extreme. I
  think
   few would follow a master's directive to kill
   themselves. I wouldn't care if it was a test or
  not,
   I wouldn't do it. The dance with a master is as
   complex as one's attachments. MMY in these
  examples is
   just honing in for a specific attachment kill.
  
   
  But dude, oh yea of little faith. Like, dude, don't
  you remember that
  master-dude who told the disciple-dude to jump off
  the cliff, and he
  did without hesitation, and the master climbed down,
  picked up all the
  scattered gory pieces of the student-dude, and
  brought the dude back
  to life. Way kewl! I'm up for that man. Totally!
 
 What a rush, dude, on the way down. Killer!
 

And I heard man, that the student-dude's bad knee, that he blew out on
those steep and deep bumps at Telluride, fully blazed, was like
totally gone when he got revived. I mean the knee wasn't gone dude,
that would be like so funny, but  that the badness in his knee was
gone. I gotta get me one of them swami-ogga-booga-dudes.








 Yahoo! Groups Sponsor ~-- 
Get fast access to your favorite Yahoo! Groups. Make Yahoo! your home page
http://us.click.yahoo.com/dpRU5A/wUILAA/yQLSAA/JjtolB/TM
~- 

To subscribe, send a message to:
[EMAIL PROTECTED]

Or go to: 
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/FairfieldLife/
and click 'Join This Group!' 
Yahoo! Groups Links

* To visit your group on the web, go to:
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/FairfieldLife/

* To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
[EMAIL PROTECTED]

* Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to:
http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
 




[FairfieldLife] Re: MUM no FFL

2005-11-10 Thread akasha_108
--- In FairfieldLife@yahoogroups.com, Peter [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote:

 
 
 --- akasha_108 [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote:
 
   Peter [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote:
   It was the same meeting in which Bevan was
  directed to
   stop screwing married women and John was told to
  have
   sex with no more than 12 different women in one
  month.
  
  Was that the same meeting where the faculty senate
  voted to damn
  democracy?
 
 Yes. It was a Thursday, I believe.
 

I wonder if john would jump off a cliff, while doing it with 12 women
at once, if M. told him too.





 Yahoo! Groups Sponsor ~-- 
Get fast access to your favorite Yahoo! Groups. Make Yahoo! your home page
http://us.click.yahoo.com/dpRU5A/wUILAA/yQLSAA/JjtolB/TM
~- 

To subscribe, send a message to:
[EMAIL PROTECTED]

Or go to: 
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/FairfieldLife/
and click 'Join This Group!' 
Yahoo! Groups Links

* To visit your group on the web, go to:
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/FairfieldLife/

* To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
[EMAIL PROTECTED]

* Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to:
http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
 





[FairfieldLife] Re: A book you might enjoy

2005-11-10 Thread akasha_108
jim_flanegin [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote:
  
  That's exactly what the people who drank the kool-aid in Guyana 
 did.
  
  Scary.
 
 And those folks in Beverly Hills wanting to hitch a ride on that 
 comet...Hopefully that leasson has been learned.

Well, they all castrated themselves sometime before that. I would have
thought that might have been a tell-tale sign too.

I mean the TMO only suggests tight wet loin-cloths and all. I mean
thats like normal and ok.







 Yahoo! Groups Sponsor ~-- 
Get fast access to your favorite Yahoo! Groups. Make Yahoo! your home page
http://us.click.yahoo.com/dpRU5A/wUILAA/yQLSAA/JjtolB/TM
~- 

To subscribe, send a message to:
[EMAIL PROTECTED]

Or go to: 
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/FairfieldLife/
and click 'Join This Group!' 
Yahoo! Groups Links

* To visit your group on the web, go to:
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/FairfieldLife/

* To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
[EMAIL PROTECTED]

* Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to:
http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
 




[FairfieldLife] Re: Prisoner Sues God

2005-11-10 Thread akasha_108
--- In FairfieldLife@yahoogroups.com, Rick Archer [EMAIL PROTECTED]
wrote:

 http://www.ananova.com/news/story/sm_1576068.html


But prosecutors said it would probably be dropped and they were unable
to subpoena God to court.

But God IS in the court already! Jeez






 Yahoo! Groups Sponsor ~-- 
Get fast access to your favorite Yahoo! Groups. Make Yahoo! your home page
http://us.click.yahoo.com/dpRU5A/wUILAA/yQLSAA/JjtolB/TM
~- 

To subscribe, send a message to:
[EMAIL PROTECTED]

Or go to: 
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/FairfieldLife/
and click 'Join This Group!' 
Yahoo! Groups Links

* To visit your group on the web, go to:
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/FairfieldLife/

* To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
[EMAIL PROTECTED]

* Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to:
http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
 




[FairfieldLife] Re: eating meat/ostrich anyone?

2005-11-10 Thread akasha_108
--- In FairfieldLife@yahoogroups.com, Rick Archer [EMAIL PROTECTED]
wrote:

 on 11/10/05 3:11 PM, anonymousff at [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote:
 
  After many years of following a primarily vegetarian diet I have
  blimped out with no end in sight.
 
 Have you tried using a mirror?

I found them kind of crunchy, but if you bake them well, and add some
salt and spices, they are ok.








 Yahoo! Groups Sponsor ~-- 
Get fast access to your favorite Yahoo! Groups. Make Yahoo! your home page
http://us.click.yahoo.com/dpRU5A/wUILAA/yQLSAA/JjtolB/TM
~- 

To subscribe, send a message to:
[EMAIL PROTECTED]

Or go to: 
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/FairfieldLife/
and click 'Join This Group!' 
Yahoo! Groups Links

* To visit your group on the web, go to:
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/FairfieldLife/

* To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
[EMAIL PROTECTED]

* Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to:
http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
 





[FairfieldLife] Re: eating meat/ostrich anyone?

2005-11-10 Thread akasha_108
anonymousff [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote:

 After many years of following a primarily vegetarian diet I have
 blimped out with no end in sight. It's clear that the grains, startchy
 veggies, beans will keep packing the pounds on my already not small
frame.
 
 So, after much research I am now adding some form of meat to my diet
 twice daily, 3-4 ounces each time. 
...
 I'd really be interested in hearing from others who gave up their
 vegetarian diet and added meat back in their diet.

I went through the same thing some years ago -- figuring out that rice
and beans and veggies were not an ideal diet -- though the doctor,
Rothenberg?, at the LA av place told me, excellent diet, thats all
you need 

I read a lot, got into the theory behind zone and atkins, tried a lot 
of high protein and protein adequate (a zone phrase) food
combinations. And researched food compostions pretty deeply --created
a large spreadsheet dumping data from dept ag data base (excellent
food composition source). 

One thing I was able to confirm is that you can get all the protein,
of the right type, from a veg diet. There are 8 amino acids that your
body can't produce, and things like tofu and milk -- combined with
healthy servings of vegetables ( vegs have protein too, just fairly
diluted relative to their mass) gives an amino acid mix similar to meat. 

After 30 years or so, I played with eating eggs, chicken, fish, but no
red meat.  One issue with fish is the surprisingly high mercury
levels, so I abandoned eating that regularly. Though all animal
products have their curse (perhaps literally) -- hormones in chickens etc.

And I cut way down on carbs -- I gave up, for the most part, grains
and beans. And things like honey (I have not used sugar since my teens
-- except in specialty things once in a while). And I cut way down on
fruit. 

I think the problem with a ru diet is not the lack of protein but the
high level of carbs which do lots of damage to your system over time.
People switch to meat thinking their problem is low protein when its
really high carbs.

You need about 50-60 grams of protein /day  if you lead a  normal
life - athletes in training need 100 or so. And need varies by sex,
size etc. Actually protein need is not a settled area. The UN I think
sets levels at 30-40. The tests for protein deficiency are bsed on
testing nitrogen levels -- and some studies have shown a total rice
diet did not bring subjects into protein deficiency. 
 
Lots of people eat more protein than they need, which is just then
used as calories. Eating adequate protein is a good target. 

If you have acess to good firm fresh tofu, i find it a good source.
Some tofu in supermarkets is horrible stuff. But most healthfood
stores carry reasonable to good stuff. I bake mine at low heat -- 200
or so, until it turns a light golden brown. It becomes delicious this
way -- IMO, can then be easily slice -- very thin if you want, add to
stir fry, etc, and keeps a very long time. 

Good firm tofu provides about 5 grams of protein / oz. (Look at
pacakge, it varies by producer and desnity). So 8 oz of tofu divided
between meals (2-3 oz / meal) plus a couple of cups for milk (9g
prot/cup) gives you 58 grams / day. And if you eat healthy servings of
vegetables (not beans or squashes, but greens, broccoli, asparagus,
carrots, celery, etc) you can pick up an extra 10 grams of p. / day --
plus all the other benefits of fresh vegetables.

So even 6 oz of tofu, one cup of milk, and lots of fresh veggies will
give you 50 grams of good quality protein. No need for meat if you
have ethical, ecological or other misgivings about it. 

I tend to mix it up -- I have added 1 free-range no-hormone eggs to my
diet per day (6g) (or so), 4-8 oz firm tofu (20-40 g), a bit of low
fat cheese (5-10g), a couple of cups of skim milk (in coffee and tea
mostly) (18 g) , a skinless chicken breast once in a while (20-30 g).
A few nuts now and then -- not regualrly -- too heavy for me. And lots
of fresh vegies (10 g), and fruit only as an occasional treat. The
protein to carb ratio of such exceeds the zone, but is not as drastic
as atkins.

And protion size is critical. I generally eaten good foods - but too
much of anything is bad. Try eating half the portion size as normal
for a week and see if you feel ok.

And fasting once a week -- i did that regualry on thursday in my TMO
days, i have found to be a great habit. And extending the fast the
second (even thrid day) if I feel good. 

hope this helps.



 



 







 Yahoo! Groups Sponsor ~-- 
Get fast access to your favorite Yahoo! Groups. Make Yahoo! your home page
http://us.click.yahoo.com/dpRU5A/wUILAA/yQLSAA/JjtolB/TM
~- 

To subscribe, send a message to:
[EMAIL PROTECTED]

Or go to: 
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/FairfieldLife/
and click 'Join This Group!' 
Yahoo! Groups Links

* To visit your group on the web, go to:

[FairfieldLife] Re: eating meat/ostrich anyone?

2005-11-10 Thread akasha_108
Just a quick adder on the quality of protein in veg diets. Some people
think you can't get enough quality protein from veg sources. Its just
not true.

Following are the 8 necessary amino acids for humans, and their
percentages in composition compared to milk. The only one really out
of whack  is methionine at 55%. But by eating some foods richer in
methionine can help balance this out. Brazil nuts are way high -- 250
% higher than milk. And seseme seeds, avacados, eggs, brussel sprouts
all exceed the methionine compostion of milk (relative to other amino
acids.) Even with balancing, a veg diet might end up at 80% or so
methionine of the compositition of milk. 

But there are no studies that milk has the deal balance of methionine
relative to other amino acids. Its probably a good mix for calves, but
not necessarily needed by adult humans. I can't find any studies on it. 

Regardless, by increasing protein intake by 20% over your target
(which is pretty nebulous figure to start with, anywhere from 30-80
grams) one would achieve the same amount of methionine as in a dairy
diet. Meat has about 15% more methionine per gram of protien than
milk, so a 25-30 % or so greater load of veggie protien compared to a
meat diet would give a similar level of methionine (its not all meat
it would not have to be 30-40% which would be needed for equal
methionine levels for a pure meat diet).

So still, 8 oz firm tofu, 2 glasses of milk, a brazil nut, a slice of
avocado, an oz of cheese and lots of veggies gives you 65-75 grams of
protein -- 25-30%% over a target of 50 grams. Thus such a diet would
be eqivalent in methionine levels (and higher in other essential amino
acids) compared to a meat diet.



Tryptophan__119.70%
Threonine__ 98.30%
Isoleucine__89.10%
Leucine_84.30%
Lysine__90.20%
Methionine__55.00%
Phenylalanine___109.20%
Valine__81.90%




--- In FairfieldLife@yahoogroups.com, anonymousff [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote:

 Hey thanks (and to everyone who responded). That is a well-thought out
 response based on your first-hand experience. I have been reading
 about diet for years and would not have been able to synthesize all
 I've learned that succinctly.
 
 I'm going to give buffalo meat, very low in fat and low in saturated
 fat, wild alaskan salmon and free range chicken, twice per day, for a
 month and see how it all goes. 
 
 Again, thanks
 
  --- In FairfieldLife@yahoogroups.com, akasha_108 [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote:
 
  anonymousff [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote:
  
   After many years of following a primarily vegetarian diet I have
   blimped out with no end in sight. It's clear that the grains,
startchy
   veggies, beans will keep packing the pounds on my already not small
  frame.
   
   So, after much research I am now adding some form of meat to my diet
   twice daily, 3-4 ounces each time. 
  ...
   I'd really be interested in hearing from others who gave up their
   vegetarian diet and added meat back in their diet.
  
  I went through the same thing some years ago -- figuring out that rice
  and beans and veggies were not an ideal diet -- though the doctor,
  Rothenberg?, at the LA av place told me, excellent diet, thats all
  you need 
  
  I read a lot, got into the theory behind zone and atkins, tried a lot 
  of high protein and protein adequate (a zone phrase) food
  combinations. And researched food compostions pretty deeply --created
  a large spreadsheet dumping data from dept ag data base (excellent
  food composition source). 
  
  One thing I was able to confirm is that you can get all the protein,
  of the right type, from a veg diet. There are 8 amino acids that your
  body can't produce, and things like tofu and milk -- combined with
  healthy servings of vegetables ( vegs have protein too, just fairly
  diluted relative to their mass) gives an amino acid mix similar to
 meat. 
  
  After 30 years or so, I played with eating eggs, chicken, fish, but no
  red meat.  One issue with fish is the surprisingly high mercury
  levels, so I abandoned eating that regularly. Though all animal
  products have their curse (perhaps literally) -- hormones in
 chickens etc.
  
  And I cut way down on carbs -- I gave up, for the most part, grains
  and beans. And things like honey (I have not used sugar since my teens
  -- except in specialty things once in a while). And I cut way down on
  fruit. 
  
  I think the problem with a ru diet is not the lack of protein but the
  high level of carbs which do lots of damage to your system over time.
  People switch to meat thinking their problem is low protein when its
  really high carbs.
  
  You need about 50-60 grams of protein /day  if you lead a  normal
  life - athletes in training need 100 or so. And need varies by sex,
  size etc. Actually protein need is not a settled area. The UN I think
  sets levels at 30-40. The tests for protein deficiency are bsed on
  testing nitrogen levels -- and some studies have shown a total rice

[FairfieldLife] Re: eating meat/ostrich anyone?

2005-11-10 Thread akasha_108
Yea, no dairy makes it more difficult. But tofu, veggies and some
brazil nuts can give you all the high quality protein you need. And if
you can tolerate eggs, 1-2 a day helps.



--- In FairfieldLife@yahoogroups.com, anonymousff [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote:

 my quick adder onner---I'm totally allergic to milk and dont even
 bother trying any of the guaranteed ways to overcome the allergy, none
 of them are worth the month it takes me to get rid of the aftereffects.
 
 
 --- In FairfieldLife@yahoogroups.com, akasha_108 [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote:
 
  Just a quick adder on the quality of protein in veg diets. Some people
  think you can't get enough quality protein from veg sources. Its just
  not true.
  
  Following are the 8 necessary amino acids for humans, and their
  percentages in composition compared to milk. The only one really out
  of whack  is methionine at 55%. But by eating some foods richer in
  methionine can help balance this out. Brazil nuts are way high -- 250
  % higher than milk. And seseme seeds, avacados, eggs, brussel sprouts
  all exceed the methionine compostion of milk (relative to other amino
  acids.) Even with balancing, a veg diet might end up at 80% or so
  methionine of the compositition of milk. 
  
  But there are no studies that milk has the deal balance of methionine
  relative to other amino acids. Its probably a good mix for calves, but
  not necessarily needed by adult humans. I can't find any studies
on it. 
  
  Regardless, by increasing protein intake by 20% over your target
  (which is pretty nebulous figure to start with, anywhere from 30-80
  grams) one would achieve the same amount of methionine as in a dairy
  diet. Meat has about 15% more methionine per gram of protien than
  milk, so a 25-30 % or so greater load of veggie protien compared to a
  meat diet would give a similar level of methionine (its not all meat
  it would not have to be 30-40% which would be needed for equal
  methionine levels for a pure meat diet).
  
  So still, 8 oz firm tofu, 2 glasses of milk, a brazil nut, a slice of
  avocado, an oz of cheese and lots of veggies gives you 65-75 grams of
  protein -- 25-30%% over a target of 50 grams. Thus such a diet would
  be eqivalent in methionine levels (and higher in other essential amino
  acids) compared to a meat diet.
  
  
  
  Tryptophan__119.70%
  Threonine__ 98.30%
  Isoleucine__89.10%
  Leucine_84.30%
  Lysine__90.20%
  Methionine__55.00%
  Phenylalanine___109.20%
  Valine__81.90%
  
  
  
  
  --- In FairfieldLife@yahoogroups.com, anonymousff [EMAIL PROTECTED]
wrote:
  
   Hey thanks (and to everyone who responded). That is a
well-thought out
   response based on your first-hand experience. I have been reading
   about diet for years and would not have been able to synthesize all
   I've learned that succinctly.
   
   I'm going to give buffalo meat, very low in fat and low in saturated
   fat, wild alaskan salmon and free range chicken, twice per day,
for a
   month and see how it all goes. 
   
   Again, thanks
   
--- In FairfieldLife@yahoogroups.com, akasha_108 [EMAIL PROTECTED]
 wrote:
   
anonymousff [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote:

 After many years of following a primarily vegetarian diet I have
 blimped out with no end in sight. It's clear that the grains,
  startchy
 veggies, beans will keep packing the pounds on my already not
 small
frame.
 
 So, after much research I am now adding some form of meat to
 my diet
 twice daily, 3-4 ounces each time. 
...
 I'd really be interested in hearing from others who gave up
their
 vegetarian diet and added meat back in their diet.

I went through the same thing some years ago -- figuring out
 that rice
and beans and veggies were not an ideal diet -- though the doctor,
Rothenberg?, at the LA av place told me, excellent diet,
thats all
you need 

I read a lot, got into the theory behind zone and atkins, tried
 a lot 
of high protein and protein adequate (a zone phrase) food
combinations. And researched food compostions pretty deeply
 --created
a large spreadsheet dumping data from dept ag data base (excellent
food composition source). 

One thing I was able to confirm is that you can get all the
protein,
of the right type, from a veg diet. There are 8 amino acids that
 your
body can't produce, and things like tofu and milk -- combined with
healthy servings of vegetables ( vegs have protein too, just
fairly
diluted relative to their mass) gives an amino acid mix
similar to
   meat. 

After 30 years or so, I played with eating eggs, chicken, fish,
 but no
red meat.  One issue with fish is the surprisingly high mercury
levels, so I abandoned eating that regularly. Though all animal
products have their curse (perhaps literally) -- hormones in
   chickens etc.

And I cut way down on carbs -- I gave up

[FairfieldLife] AMD Sales Surpass Intel

2005-11-10 Thread akasha_108
AMD Sales Surpass Intel
 
Retail PCs powered by AMD outsold Intel in October, says Current
Analysis study.

Stacy Cowley, IDG News Service
Wednesday, November 09, 2005

Chip-making underdog Advanced Micro Devices edged past Intel in
October in supplying processors for the U.S. retail PC market,
according to a study by research firm Current Analysis.


Intel has a firm hold on the overall number-one chip supplier spot for
all U.S. consumer PCs, thanks in part to its exclusive deal with
direct-selling powerhouse Dell. Still, AMD's October milestone
illustrates the progress it has made in eating away at Intel's dominance.

Current Analysis, with headquarters in Washington, D.C., collects its
data by surveying major U.S. consumer-electronics retailers. In
October, AMD processors were in 49.8 percent of the PCs those
retailers sold, compared with a 48.5 percent share for Intel.

Competitive Market

AMD brushed past Intel in desktop sales in September. An uptick in its
notebook sales as well in October gave it the overall edge over Intel
for that month, according to the Current Analysis report.

AMD did the unthinkable by surpassing Intel in October. Continuing to
hold this lead in the holiday season would be a colossal win for the
company, Current Analysis Director of Research Matt Sargent said in a
written statement accompanying the firm's report.

While AMD gained a slight upper hand on market share, Intel is still
the clear revenue winner, thanks to the higher average selling price
of Intel-based PCs. Intel's revenue share of retail PC sales in
October was 57.6 percent to AMD's 40.1 percent, according to AMD's
research.







 Yahoo! Groups Sponsor ~-- 
Get fast access to your favorite Yahoo! Groups. Make Yahoo! your home page
http://us.click.yahoo.com/dpRU5A/wUILAA/yQLSAA/JjtolB/TM
~- 

To subscribe, send a message to:
[EMAIL PROTECTED]

Or go to: 
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/FairfieldLife/
and click 'Join This Group!' 
Yahoo! Groups Links

* To visit your group on the web, go to:
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/FairfieldLife/

* To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
[EMAIL PROTECTED]

* Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to:
http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
 




[FairfieldLife] Re: eating meat/ostrich anyone?

2005-11-10 Thread akasha_108
Bhairitu [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote:
 Also your diet sounds a little too narrow.  Most all nutritionists
now agree (even in Ayurveda) that rotation is a good idea and to eat a
lot of variety appropriate to your dietary type.  Without rotation
allergies may occur.



Yes, variety is good. 

Tofu, milk, cheese, some nuts, eggs, an occaional chcken breast, lots
of many typed of vegetables, some avacado, some olive oil is my core
diet. It meets most or all nutritional requirements, including high
quality digestable protein. 

And vegegtables are so varied. Lots of variety there.

But living in the world, I venture off on many other things occcasion,
including grains, legumes/beans and fruits, and seafood. The only
thing missing between my core diet, and the periodic ventures to the
outer ring, is red meat and refined carbs (except ON some special
occasions for the latter).  Not a requirement as far as I can see, and
in my experience.

And I take good supplements. Including b12, which is essential for
veggers, and pharmacutectal grade omega-3s. 


 
 - Bhairitu
 
 
 akasha_108 wrote:
 
 Just a quick adder on the quality of protein in veg diets. Some people
 think you can't get enough quality protein from veg sources. Its just
 not true.
 
 Following are the 8 necessary amino acids for humans, and their
 percentages in composition compared to milk. The only one really out
 of whack  is methionine at 55%. But by eating some foods richer in
 methionine can help balance this out. Brazil nuts are way high -- 250
 % higher than milk. And seseme seeds, avacados, eggs, brussel sprouts
 all exceed the methionine compostion of milk (relative to other amino
 acids.) Even with balancing, a veg diet might end up at 80% or so
 methionine of the compositition of milk. 
 
 But there are no studies that milk has the deal balance of methionine
 relative to other amino acids. Its probably a good mix for calves, but
 not necessarily needed by adult humans. I can't find any studies on
it. 
 
 Regardless, by increasing protein intake by 20% over your target
 (which is pretty nebulous figure to start with, anywhere from 30-80
 grams) one would achieve the same amount of methionine as in a dairy
 diet. Meat has about 15% more methionine per gram of protien than
 milk, so a 25-30 % or so greater load of veggie protien compared to a
 meat diet would give a similar level of methionine (its not all meat
 it would not have to be 30-40% which would be needed for equal
 methionine levels for a pure meat diet).
 
 So still, 8 oz firm tofu, 2 glasses of milk, a brazil nut, a slice of
 avocado, an oz of cheese and lots of veggies gives you 65-75 grams of
 protein -- 25-30%% over a target of 50 grams. Thus such a diet would
 be eqivalent in methionine levels (and higher in other essential amino
 acids) compared to a meat diet.
 
 
 
 Tryptophan__119.70%
 Threonine__  98.30%
 Isoleucine__89.10%
 Leucine_84.30%
 Lysine__90.20%
 Methionine__55.00%
 Phenylalanine___109.20%
 Valine__81.90%
 
 
 
 
 --- In FairfieldLife@yahoogroups.com, anonymousff [EMAIL PROTECTED]
wrote:
   
 
 Hey thanks (and to everyone who responded). That is a well-thought out
 response based on your first-hand experience. I have been reading
 about diet for years and would not have been able to synthesize all
 I've learned that succinctly.
 
 I'm going to give buffalo meat, very low in fat and low in saturated
 fat, wild alaskan salmon and free range chicken, twice per day, for a
 month and see how it all goes. 
 
 Again, thanks
 
  --- In FairfieldLife@yahoogroups.com, akasha_108 [EMAIL PROTECTED]
wrote:
 
 
 anonymousff [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote:
   
 
 After many years of following a primarily vegetarian diet I have
 blimped out with no end in sight. It's clear that the grains,
 
 
 startchy
   
 
 veggies, beans will keep packing the pounds on my already not small
 frame.
 
 So, after much research I am now adding some form of meat to my diet
 twice daily, 3-4 ounces each time. 
 
 
 ...
   
 
 I'd really be interested in hearing from others who gave up their
 vegetarian diet and added meat back in their diet.
 
 
 I went through the same thing some years ago -- figuring out that
rice
 and beans and veggies were not an ideal diet -- though the doctor,
 Rothenberg?, at the LA av place told me, excellent diet, thats all
 you need 
 
 I read a lot, got into the theory behind zone and atkins, tried a
lot 
 of high protein and protein adequate (a zone phrase) food
 combinations. And researched food compostions pretty deeply --created
 a large spreadsheet dumping data from dept ag data base (excellent
 food composition source). 
 
 One thing I was able to confirm is that you can get all the protein,
 of the right type, from a veg diet. There are 8 amino acids that your
 body can't produce, and things like tofu and milk -- combined with
 healthy servings of vegetables ( vegs have protein too, just fairly

[FairfieldLife] Methionine deficiency

2005-11-10 Thread akasha_108
Since Methionine is the one essential amino acid often at lowest
levels in veg, particularly soy/tofu based diet, symtoms of Methionine
deficiency are good to know. 

Methionine deficiency
Methionine deficiency is caused by an abundance of the ß-chain of
ß-conglycinin, a seed storage protein that lacks methionine.
Methionine deficiency is associated with a deficiency of
S-adenosylmethionine which acts as an endogenous anti-depressant. Most
people consume plenty of methionine through a typical diet. Lower
intakes during pregnancy have been associated with neural tube defects
in newborns. Methionine deficiency (primarily in salmonids) leads to
reduced growth rate with the development of bilateral cataracts.
(Zinc, and cystine deficiencies can also cause cataracts) It is felt
that deficiencies of vitamin A and riboflavin also play a role in this
lesion. Methionine deficiency causes the liver to metabolize only
histidine to form, resulting in an incomplete form of folic acid.
Methionine deficiency can cause apathy, loss of pigmentation in hair,
edema, lethargy, liver damage, muscle loss, fat loss, skin lesions,
weakness, and slowed growth in children.


---

More on Methionine 

Methionine, organic compound, one of the 20 amino acids commonly found
in animal proteins. Methionine is one of the several essential amino
acids needed in the diet; the human body cannot synthesize it from
simpler metabolites. Methionine supplies sulfur and other compounds
required by the body for normal metabolism and growth. It is an
important source of dietary sulfur. Methionine also belongs to a group
of compounds called lipotropics; others in this group include choline,
inositol, and betaine. Methionine is one of only two amino acids
encoded by just one codon (AUG) in the standard genetic code
(tryptophan, encoded by UGG, is the other). L-methionine is a
sulfur-containing amino acid that is minimally soluble in water. Its
sulfur is non reactive.
 
Methionine functions, uses, and health benefits
Methionine reacts with adenosine triphosphate to form S-adenosyl
methionine. S-adenosyl methionine is the principal methyl donor in the
body and contributes to the synthesis of many important substances,
including epinephrine and choline. SAMe is
involved in the synthesis of creatine, epinephrine, melatonin and the
polyamines spermine and spermidine, among several other substances.
Since methionine is the only essential amino acid not present in
significant amounts of soybeans, it is produced commercially as an
additive for soybean meal. Methionine is incorporated into the
N-terminal position of all proteins in eukaryotes and archaea.
Methionine plays a role in cysteine, carnitine and taurine synthesis
by the transsulfuration pathway, lecithin production, the synthesis of
phosphatidylcholine and other phospholipids.

Methionine in lipotropic combinations has been proposed for treating
endometriosis, a condition in which patches of endometrial tissue from
the uterine lining grow outside the uterus. Methionine is an
especially important nutrient beneficial for those suffering from
estrogen dominance, where the amount of estrogen in the body is
excessively high when compared to its opposing hormone called
progesterone. The nutrient is believed to help by expediting the
removal of excess estrogen from the liver.

Methionine is both an antioxidant and lipotrope, meaning it helps
remove fat from the liver. Methionine contributes to the
hydrophobicity of a protein. Methionine controls the level of
beneficial sulfur-containing compounds in the body. These
sulfur-containing compounds are in turn vital for defending against
toxic compounds like heavy metals in the liver. Methionine helps
reduce histamine levels, which are amino acids that control dilation
of blood vessels and influence brain function.
 
Dietary sources of methionine

Meat, fish, and dairy products are all excellent sources of
methionine. L-methionine is also found in fruits and vegetables, but
not as abundantly. Small amounts of free L-methionine occur in
vegetables, vegetable juices and fermented foods. Vegetarians can
obtain methionine from whole grains.
 
Methionine dosage, intake

Amino acid requirements vary according to body weight. L-methionine
supplements should only be taken with a physician's recommendation.
According to the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United
Nations (FAO) and World Health Organization (WHO), recommended daily
L-methionine intake is 13 mg per kg or about one gram daily for
adults. During methionine supplementation, intake of taurine,
cysteine, and other sulfur containing amino acids, as well as B6 and
folic acid should also be included.
 
 
Toxicity, side effects, interactions, and contraindications
Excessive methionine intake, together with inadequate intake of folic
acid, vitamin B6, and vitamin B12, can increase the conversion of
methionine to homocysteine. Homocysteine is a potentially harmful
blood fat that has been linked to 

[FairfieldLife] Re: Methionine deficiency

2005-11-10 Thread akasha_108
More interesting methionine and deficiency info


METHIONINE is an essential amino acid that cannot be synthesized in
the body, but must be obtained from food sources or from dietary
supplements. Methionine is a precursor for the other sulfur amino
acids, cystine, taurine, and glutathione. It has the ability to be a
methyl donor to other molecules, which is essential in formulating RNA
and DNA. Methionine is necessary for the absorption, transportation,
and bioavailability of selenium. In order to be properly utilized,
methionine requires the help of its cofactors -- Vitamins B6, B12, Bc,
choline, folic acid, and magnesium.

Methionine is an antioxidant and, because it has a methyl group, it
can combine with active free radicals. However, its derivative,
homocysteine, is a powerful oxidant. Adequate levels of B6 are
required to allow this harmful compound to be reconverted into an
antioxidant substance called cystathione. A high meat intake with an
inadequate supply of B6 would produce this type of situation, as would
high methionine supplementation without additional B6. The result is
cardiovascular disease. Methionine is important in the formation of
blood proteins, globulins, and albumins. It also assists in the
breakdown of fats, preventing their buildup in the liver and arteries,
which can obstruct blood flow to the brain, heart, and kidneys.

Methionine is important in the treatment of rheumatic fever and
pregnancy-induced toxemia. With the help of choline and folic acid,
methionine is a chelator for heavy metals and helps remove them from
the body. Methionine is also used as an antidote in paracetamol
poisoning -- a pain killer available by prescription and in
over-the-counter analgesics -- and to lower urinary pH, making it more
acidic.

The body uses methionine to derive a brain food called choline.
Therefore, choline or lecithin (which is high in choline) should be
added to the diet so that the supply of methionine is not depleted.
Beans are low in methionine but rich in lysine; and, since most grains
are low in lysine and rich in methionine, combining beans and grains
will give a full complement of amino acids.

Methionine deficiency causes the liver to metabolize only histidine to
form, resulting in an incomplete form of folic acid. From this,
researchers conclude that methionine is a key factor in regulating the
availability of folate. When methionine levels are low, folate becomes
trapped in the liver as 5-methyl-tetrahydrofolate, causing a temporary
folic acid deficiency since this form cannot be used. This is also
seen in Vitamin B12 deficiencies and may be an important factor in all
allergy and some anemia patients.

Since 1970, methionine deficiencies have been attributed to such
ailments as toxemia, childhood rheumatic fever, muscle paralysis, hair
loss, depression, schizophrenia, Parkinson's, liver deterioration, and
impaired growth.
Food sources include beans, eggs, fish, garlic, lentils, meat, onions,
soybeans, seeds, yogurt.
Other names for Methionine include: MET, amino acid M, and
2-amino-4(methylthio)-buanoic acid.
 

 



--- In FairfieldLife@yahoogroups.com, akasha_108 [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote:

 Since Methionine is the one essential amino acid often at lowest
 levels in veg, particularly soy/tofu based diet, symtoms of Methionine
 deficiency are good to know. 
 
 Methionine deficiency
 Methionine deficiency is caused by an abundance of the ß-chain of
 ß-conglycinin, a seed storage protein that lacks methionine.
 Methionine deficiency is associated with a deficiency of
 S-adenosylmethionine which acts as an endogenous anti-depressant. Most
 people consume plenty of methionine through a typical diet. Lower
 intakes during pregnancy have been associated with neural tube defects
 in newborns. Methionine deficiency (primarily in salmonids) leads to
 reduced growth rate with the development of bilateral cataracts.
 (Zinc, and cystine deficiencies can also cause cataracts) It is felt
 that deficiencies of vitamin A and riboflavin also play a role in this
 lesion. Methionine deficiency causes the liver to metabolize only
 histidine to form, resulting in an incomplete form of folic acid.
 Methionine deficiency can cause apathy, loss of pigmentation in hair,
 edema, lethargy, liver damage, muscle loss, fat loss, skin lesions,
 weakness, and slowed growth in children.
 
 
 ---
 
 More on Methionine 
 
 Methionine, organic compound, one of the 20 amino acids commonly found
 in animal proteins. Methionine is one of the several essential amino
 acids needed in the diet; the human body cannot synthesize it from
 simpler metabolites. Methionine supplies sulfur and other compounds
 required by the body for normal metabolism and growth. It is an
 important source of dietary sulfur. Methionine also belongs to a group
 of compounds called lipotropics; others in this group include choline,
 inositol, and betaine. Methionine is one of only two amino acids
 encoded by just one codon (AUG

[FairfieldLife] Re: From an ex-member of the Kalki cult

2005-11-10 Thread akasha_108
This post (may) put the recent steve klayman post in perspective.
It would be interesting to hear his reaction to this new 'scam post.


http://groups.yahoo.com/group/FairfieldLife/message/78765


--- In FairfieldLife@yahoogroups.com, Peter [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote:

 I thought there was something a little stinky about
 these guys. Their pics have a certain type of darshan,
 but all this emphasis on celestial experiences is a
 little unusual.
 
 --- Rick Archer [EMAIL PROTECTED]
 wrote:
 
  (This was from a private letter that was posted on a
  website, with personal
  details omitted):
  
  I have been associated with the cult of Sri Kalki
  Bhagavan (and his wife
  Padmavathi Amma), who positions himself as the
  Vishnu Avatar, and a God -
  although in recent years he has made his claims a
  little indirect, perhaps
  due to media criticism, and fear of ridicule.
  
  I have served this cult for 2 year, attended their
  Deekshas, and done a lot
  of promotion for them. I would like to bring to your
  notice that this cult
  is pressurizing its INDIAN devotees to donate large
  sums of wealth, if they
  want to remain in the good books of the disciples
  (dasas) who run the show,
  and progress further. We have even been asked to
  take loans (the last case
  was Rs 100,000 which is a large amount), and donate,
  if we don't have the
  money. We have been told that we can repay the loans
  over a few years!
  
  From the day we join we are pressurized to bring in
  new people and send them
  for the initial 3-day deeksha (costing Rs 5000).
  This is because to qualify
  for the higher level we must send 60 (now 30) people
  for the program. First
  we are told that the 3-day program will enlighten us
  (for only Rs 5000!),
  then we are told - sorry the higher process will
  enlighten you. So we have
  no option but to talk others (family, friends etc)
  into joining and going
  for the 3-day program.
  
  Once we have sent so many people, and we find no
  change in us, it is very
  difficult to step out. I have still not told my
  family that I have left, for
  loss of face. In order to convince 60 people to go,
  we have to exaggerate
  and make tall claims. We have to create a miracle
  out of each little
  incident that happened to us (such as getting a
  green light on the way to
  work) etc. We have to keep talking of unending
  grace, and say things like
  our whole life has changed. We are all basically
  sincere people, but we
  start telling lies without realizing it, and a time
  comes when we are stuck.
  
  New people are lured in by promises of unending
  grace, and then after we
  tell them lots of stories (most of them are just
  heard from others, no one
  has any evidence of them actually happening.), then
  the disciples ask them
  to make donations, or go for paid darshans in order
  to get that unending
  grace. These darshans are expensive and the latest
  one is that we can touch
  Amma's feet for Rs 100,000. Prior to going for the
  higher process we were
  all told that in order for the higher process to be
  a great success we
  should make this donation. Many of us are very
  ordinary people, some have
  left our jobs to pursue a spiritual goal, so the
  amount is no small order.
  
  Even the higher process(two weeks) has made no
  difference to anyone.
  Although it does seem to us, that the program for
  foreigners (21 days, USD
  5500) has resulted in some enlightened people (such
  as Freddie Nielsen and
  Kiara Windrider - we have heard they are
  enlightened), however in India
  there is not even an attempt at spiritual growth of
  devotees. It is only
  talk of great celestial miracles, and
  enlightenment is always round the
  next corner, after the next darshan (donation).
  
  Because of all the stories we perpetuate, the number
  of devotees has really
  gone up dramatically, each wondering when his turn
  for endless grace will
  come. They claim over 30 million devotees, although
  I don't know how this
  figure has been computed.
  
  Sarlo, I write this to you primarily because I am
  concerned that large
  numbers of poor and low-income people in India are
  being fleeced by this
  cult, each hoping that his string of problems will
  magically vanish after a
  darshan or deeksha. When nothing happens their
  suffering increases.
  
  We actually convince ourselves that we are happier
  than even before for a
  while after the deeksha. In that short period we are
  pushed to recruit more
  people and share our great experiences with others.
  
  The experiences we narrate are always the tales we
  were told by the
  disciples about others who got great grace.
  
  Please keep my name under wraps. It is not safe for
  me, since I have been
  working very actively promoting this cult, and they
  know that I can
  negatively affect them through the internet.
  
  
  
  
   Yahoo! Groups Sponsor
  ~-- 
  Get fast access to 

[FairfieldLife] Re: eating meat/ostrich anyone?

2005-11-10 Thread akasha_108
--- In FairfieldLife@yahoogroups.com, authfriend [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote:

 --- In FairfieldLife@yahoogroups.com, akasha_108 [EMAIL PROTECTED] 
 wrote:
 snip
  I tend to mix it up -- I have added 1 free-range no-hormone eggs to 
  my diet per day (6g) (or so), 4-8 oz firm tofu (20-40 g), a bit   
  low fat cheese (5-10g), a couple of cups of skim milk (in coffee 
  and tea mostly) (18 g) , a skinless chicken breast once in a while 
  (20-30 g). A few nuts now and then -- not regualrly -- too heavy 
  for me. And lots of fresh vegies (10 g), and fruit only as an
  occasional treat. The protein to carb ratio of such exceeds the 
  zone, but is not as drastic as atkins.
 
 10 grams of vegetables?  That isn't very much.  Is that
 a typo?

The numbers in parens are the grams of protein. Previously I had
stated the grams of protein in each specifically. The parens numbers
here were summary to show these foods as a group gave adequate
protein. Sorry if that context was not clear. But how could two
glasses of milk wight 18 grams? Or lots of vegetables weigh 10 g --
thats a third of an oz)

 You should also be getting a healthy amount of a good
 monounsaturated oil, like olive oil, 30 percent of your
 calories.  Nuts have it too; you don't have to eat many
 of 'em.  Are almonds really too heavy for you?

The above was just a summary of my main protein sources.
See adjacent post -- I get plenty of olive oil, and other fats from
avacados (high in monos and methionine) and nuts -- particularly
brazil -- higest food source of methionine, and walnuts -- high in
omega-3s.  And I love cashews, so I indulge at bit. Ground sesseme
too, semi-high in methionine. Almonds are hard to digest for me.
Roasting on low heat helps.  And most importantly, IMO, lots of high
quality omega-3 supplements. Nordic Naturals is a good brand --
amazing story on how they produce their oils.)
 
 According to the Zone diet, there's nothing wrong wth
 fruit as long as it's low glycemic--like berries, apples,
 peaches, and so on.  

Cherries are the lowest actually. And luckly are my favorite fuit.

Everyone needs to find what works for them. I find grains, beans and
fruits, in the quantities I used to eat were way too much for me. You
may differ. I find a diet with adequate protein, from veg sourses
mostly, low carbs and adequate high grade oils work best for me.

 







 Yahoo! Groups Sponsor ~-- 
Get fast access to your favorite Yahoo! Groups. Make Yahoo! your home page
http://us.click.yahoo.com/dpRU5A/wUILAA/yQLSAA/JjtolB/TM
~- 

To subscribe, send a message to:
[EMAIL PROTECTED]

Or go to: 
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/FairfieldLife/
and click 'Join This Group!' 
Yahoo! Groups Links

* To visit your group on the web, go to:
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/FairfieldLife/

* To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
[EMAIL PROTECTED]

* Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to:
http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
 





[FairfieldLife] Washington DC Violent Crimes: 1993 highest rate per capita 1960-2003

2005-11-09 Thread akasha_108
http://bjsdata.ojp.usdoj.gov/dataonline/Search/Crime/State/statebystaterun.cfm?stateid=9

I have not yet located the weekly crime figures for 1993, but here are
annual ones.

Washington DC Violent Crimes: 1993 highest rate per capita 1960-2003

Many other crime categories were highest in 1993 or near highest --
1960 -2003

Its odd that 4000 yogic flyers were present in the city forabout 15%
of 1993. Particularly given the alleged cumulative nature of ME, its
odd that there was not more of an impact in the annual figures.

Could there be a reverse ME triggering the peak numbers?

Or perhaps is the almost 50% drop in v.crime since 1993 due to the
structural changes in consciousness created by the ME techs?



Washington DC Violent Crimes Total per 100,000 pop.
1960553.697
1961587.861
1962605.867
1963593.985
1964632.673
1965722.790
1966885.520
19671143.634
19681505.562
19692135.088
19702226.805
19712170.580
19721685.428
19731558.445
19741603.043
19751774.302
19761481.339
19771426.522
19781411.721
19791608.689
19802010.601
19812274.843
19822123.138
19831915.409
19841721.509
19851624.760
19861505.272
19871610.289
19881921.613
19892141.887
19902458.230
19912453.344
19922832.767
19932921.799
19942662.632
19952661.372
19962469.797
19972024.197
19981718.547
19991627.746
20001507.886
20011736.729
20021637.861
20031608.139


You can verify for yourself from this link's data. You can download to
a spreadsheet. Divide crimes by population in each yar to normalize to
per capita. (Multiply all by 100,000 if you want easier to read
figures, and this is the standard form for reporting per capita
figures/ per 100,000 population)
 





 Yahoo! Groups Sponsor ~-- 
Get fast access to your favorite Yahoo! Groups. Make Yahoo! your home page
http://us.click.yahoo.com/dpRU5A/wUILAA/yQLSAA/JjtolB/TM
~- 

To subscribe, send a message to:
[EMAIL PROTECTED]

Or go to: 
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/FairfieldLife/
and click 'Join This Group!' 
Yahoo! Groups Links

* To visit your group on the web, go to:
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/FairfieldLife/

* To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
[EMAIL PROTECTED]

* Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to:
http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
 




[FairfieldLife] Re: Washington DC Violent Crimes: 1993 highest rate per capita 1960-2003

2005-11-09 Thread akasha_108
Here are annual % change figures for DC violent crimes (and per
100,000 pop figures). Its interesting to see the big swings. This
underscores the fact that there are probably a number of factors
driving crime levels. If these are not controlled in the analysis,
short term swings, annual, but most certainly 8 week periods, can be
due to factors totally unrelated to the intervention. 

Also, note that in 1992, the year preceeding the study, there was over
a 15% increase in crime. The year before was almost 0. So there seems
to be some snapback effect, high levels may cause more police
crackdowns, higher funding levels etc the following year.

The Me study indicated a 25% drop in crime over 8 weeks. This by
itself should amount to about a 4% decrease in the annual rate. But it
went up 3%. But the next year with no ME effect, crime decreased over
8%. Though having weekly figures would be best, even with annual
numbers a 4% impact should be discernble.

Of course, these figures need to controlled for weather, LE fund,
police levels, etc. It may mot be too hard to find that data on-line
(volunteers?). Having such, we can all all run some regressions on it,
and introduce the ME year as a dummy variable (a standard way to
assess if an impact or intervention resulted in a statistically
significant effect -- and to see how large the effect was.) It could
be a fun exercise and help raise the level of understanding about this
type of analysis.



1960553.697 
1961587.861 6.170
1962605.867 3.063
1963593.985 -1.961
1964632.673 6.513 
1965722.790 14.244 
1966885.520 22.514
19671143.63429.148
19681505.56231.647
19692135.08841.813
19702226.8054.296
19712170.580-2.525
19721685.428-22.351
19731558.445-7.534
19741603.0432.862
19751774.30210.683
19761481.339-16.511
19771426.522-3.701
19781411.721-1.038
19791608.68913.952
19802010.60124.984
19812274.84313.142
19822123.138-6.669
19831915.409-9.784
19841721.509-10.123
19851624.760-5.620
19861505.272-7.354
19871610.2896.977
19881921.61319.333
19892141.88711.463
19902458.23014.769
19912453.344-0.199
19922832.76715.466
19932921.7993.143
19942662.632-8.870
19952661.372-0.047
19962469.797-7.198
19972024.197-18.042
19981718.547-15.100
19991627.746-5.284
20001507.886-7.364
20011736.72915.176
20021637.861-5.693
20031608.139-1.815






 Yahoo! Groups Sponsor ~-- 
Get fast access to your favorite Yahoo! Groups. Make Yahoo! your home page
http://us.click.yahoo.com/dpRU5A/wUILAA/yQLSAA/JjtolB/TM
~- 

To subscribe, send a message to:
[EMAIL PROTECTED]

Or go to: 
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/FairfieldLife/
and click 'Join This Group!' 
Yahoo! Groups Links

* To visit your group on the web, go to:
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/FairfieldLife/

* To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
[EMAIL PROTECTED]

* Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to:
http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
 




[FairfieldLife] DC Districts

2005-11-09 Thread akasha_108
There are 7 districts in DC -- and I have found some annual crime data
for them. Does anyone know which district the ME facilities were located?







 Yahoo! Groups Sponsor ~-- 
Get fast access to your favorite Yahoo! Groups. Make Yahoo! your home page
http://us.click.yahoo.com/dpRU5A/wUILAA/yQLSAA/JjtolB/TM
~- 

To subscribe, send a message to:
[EMAIL PROTECTED]

Or go to: 
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/FairfieldLife/
and click 'Join This Group!' 
Yahoo! Groups Links

* To visit your group on the web, go to:
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/FairfieldLife/

* To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
[EMAIL PROTECTED]

* Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to:
http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
 




[FairfieldLife] Re: Washington DC Violent Crimes: 1993 highest rate per capita 1960-2003

2005-11-09 Thread akasha_108
--- In FairfieldLife@yahoogroups.com, authfriend [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote:

 --- In FairfieldLife@yahoogroups.com, akasha_108 [EMAIL PROTECTED] 
 wrote:
 
  Here are annual % change figures for DC violent crimes (and per
  100,000 pop figures). Its interesting to see the big swings. This
  underscores the fact that there are probably a number of factors
  driving crime levels. If these are not controlled in the analysis,
  short term swings, annual, but most certainly 8 week periods, can be
  due to factors totally unrelated to the intervention.
 
 It's my impression that controlling for these factors
 was precisely what the researchers were attempting to
 do with their statistical methodology.

I wish their data was available -- to see what they actually tested
for and the interval of the data (annual / weekly, etc). 

The problem is a lot of important variables totest for in this regard
are usually available in annual not monthly or weekly form. Maybe
weekly was available a decade + ago but its hard to find now. For
instance, even the FBI crime data is available weekly only back to
1995 (through them).  And deomgraphic and economic variables are often
only available in annual form. And most available weather data is
averaged over 20-40 years to give typical days. But for this analysis,
the actual annual and monthly time series are required.

While I know you have a distaste for speculation, it would appear, per
my prior post outlining the four or more model specifications they
used -- per the summary, that the subordinate analysis (model 4 in
my note), they may have been stuck with only annual data for this
larger set of deomgraphic, economic and LE control variables. And
thats why they did the analysis in two stages. Weekly short term data
for the ME effect and weather only. And annual data for some testing
of long term trends using the larger set of control variables. 

The problem is, this is a quite weak approach. It means that in
primary analysis (and this is NOT speculation, its what they did),
there were no control variables other than weather, and ME, to explain
the variation crime. While the individual variables may have had high
significance (t values), the overall fit of the model may have been,
actually must have been marginal.  As anyone can see from the annual
data, there is too much other stuff going on to be explained just by
weather.

Regardless, that is the issue I am faced with in trying to collect
data to do an independent analysis. But as I stated in prior post, if
there was an ME, it should show up in annual data. And the district
data. And using annual data, a unified model can control for all
variables in the same specification. If they were not able to do this
in the primary model, and the summary appears pretty clear that they
were not, it greatly weakens the results. 

I am less and less interested in what they did, and more interested in
creating a dataset to redo the analysis, perhaps in a richer and more
defensible way than they did -- using a unified model and accounting
for economic, demographic and LE control variables that they did not
-- and over a longer time period. The core model needs to explain or
account for most of the variation in the crime rate in the longer time
period, before it can hope to account for the ME effect in 1993. Again
a 4% change should be detectable for a well controlled model (.15 of
1993 x 25% two month effect). Particularly if the district data is
used. It seems inherent in the theory that the ME effect is related
to distance from the core so the ME district should show a stronger
effect.


 Box-Jenkins analysis--does that ring a bell?  

Yes. Box and Jenkins created the original ARIMA models, the origianl
specifications are often called Box-Jenkins models -- though ARIMA
models have expanded their range since BJ's days. And ARIMA models
can be thought of as a subset of regression models. ARIMA models can
be respecified to fit a regression format, and in doing so, much more
power is adapded to the analysis.

 
  Also, note that in 1992, the year preceeding the study, there was 
 over a 15% increase in crime. The year before was almost 0. So there 
 seems to be some snapback effect, high levels may cause more police
  crackdowns, higher funding levels etc the following year.
  
  The Me study indicated a 25% drop in crime over 8 weeks. This by
  itself should amount to about a 4% decrease in the annual rate.
But  it went up 3%. But the next year with no ME effect, crime
decreased   over 8%.
 
 Could that have been the abortion effect you keep touting
 kicking in?

Partly. The abortion effect, per Levitt's work, explains the majority
of the 50% decline from 93 to 2003. But there are other factors. 
What specifically caused the 92-94 variations I would suspect has to
do with police levels and LE funding/practices. And weather
variations. Abortion could account for up to about 4% reduction per year.







 Yahoo! Groups

[FairfieldLife] Re: DC Districts

2005-11-09 Thread akasha_108
--- In FairfieldLife@yahoogroups.com, Rick Archer [EMAIL PROTECTED]
wrote:

 on 11/9/05 1:11 PM, akasha_108 at [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote:
 
  There are 7 districts in DC -- and I have found some annual crime data
  for them. Does anyone know which district the ME facilities were
located?
 
 We were spread around in different facilities.


Across all seven districts?

I thought it was mainly one big hotel. Or am I thinking of a different
project.






 Yahoo! Groups Sponsor ~-- 
Get fast access to your favorite Yahoo! Groups. Make Yahoo! your home page
http://us.click.yahoo.com/dpRU5A/wUILAA/yQLSAA/JjtolB/TM
~- 

To subscribe, send a message to:
[EMAIL PROTECTED]

Or go to: 
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/FairfieldLife/
and click 'Join This Group!' 
Yahoo! Groups Links

* To visit your group on the web, go to:
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/FairfieldLife/

* To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
[EMAIL PROTECTED]

* Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to:
http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
 




[FairfieldLife] The Akasha Effect -- Huge Decrease in Crime in DC, Much Larger the ME

2005-11-09 Thread akasha_108
In looking at the crime data, I recalled that I lived at the DC center
for a month or two in 1972. Looking at the figures, the drop in crime
for that year was much greater than in 1993 (the DC project) -- or at
least the rise in crime was significantly less. And 1972 was a very
hot summer. So while the stats are not temperature adjusted, I believe
the adjustments would be similar for each year.

So this is just an example of why control variables other than
temperature are critical to include in the PRIMARY model and analysis
-- which the DC study did not do. Otherwise any nut can suggest and
demonstrate spurious correlations that LOOK  imppressive -- until one
questions the analysis (lack of control variables in the primary
analysis).

Annual Change in crime, Washington DC

19721993
Violent crime total -22.4%  3.1%
Murder / nn Manslaughter-11.7%  4.4%
Forcible rape15.0%  53.6%
Robbery -31.6%  -2.9%
Aggravated assault  -2.8%   7.1%
Property crime total-15.9%  3.1%
Burglary-32.6%  9.6%
Larceny-theft1.7%   4.7%
Motor vehicle theft -34.0%  -9.9%


Its interestng to note that crime in most categories rose in 1993 -
the year of the DC study. The two that fell, were minor decreases. And
robbery was up over 50%. 

While the DC study may have only looked at violent crime, that was
their mandate or limitation. There is no reason that  I know of why
the ME, in theory, should not effect all crimes. If anything, at face
value (uncontrolled for other factors) crime rose across the board
when the ME was implemeted.

  





 Yahoo! Groups Sponsor ~-- 
Get fast access to your favorite Yahoo! Groups. Make Yahoo! your home page
http://us.click.yahoo.com/dpRU5A/wUILAA/yQLSAA/JjtolB/TM
~- 

To subscribe, send a message to:
[EMAIL PROTECTED]

Or go to: 
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/FairfieldLife/
and click 'Join This Group!' 
Yahoo! Groups Links

* To visit your group on the web, go to:
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/FairfieldLife/

* To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
[EMAIL PROTECTED]

* Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to:
http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
 




[FairfieldLife] Re: DC Districts

2005-11-09 Thread akasha_108
--- In FairfieldLife@yahoogroups.com, Rick Archer [EMAIL PROTECTED]
wrote:

 on 11/9/05 1:56 PM, akasha_108 at [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote:
 
  --- In FairfieldLife@yahoogroups.com, Rick Archer [EMAIL PROTECTED]
  wrote:
  
  on 11/9/05 1:11 PM, akasha_108 at [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote:
  
  There are 7 districts in DC -- and I have found some annual
crime data
  for them. Does anyone know which district the ME facilities were
  located?
  
  We were spread around in different facilities.
  
  
  Across all seven districts?

do you know whcih ones?

If I got you a district map, could you guestimate #S in each?

 
 Not all seven, but several.







 Yahoo! Groups Sponsor ~-- 
Get fast access to your favorite Yahoo! Groups. Make Yahoo! your home page
http://us.click.yahoo.com/dpRU5A/wUILAA/yQLSAA/JjtolB/TM
~- 

To subscribe, send a message to:
[EMAIL PROTECTED]

Or go to: 
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/FairfieldLife/
and click 'Join This Group!' 
Yahoo! Groups Links

* To visit your group on the web, go to:
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/FairfieldLife/

* To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
[EMAIL PROTECTED]

* Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to:
http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
 




[FairfieldLife] Annual Regression Model of DC ME Project -- Interesting Results

2005-11-09 Thread akasha_108
I worked a bit to develop a regression model for annual violent crime
data in DC. I sought to create a core model that estimated  and
accounted for the basic variations in annual violent crime. Once this
was done, I added ME variables for the intervention year, 1993, plus
lagged ME variables to test if there is a continuing effect of the ME
in subsequent years. 

For the core model I tested if the non-violent aka personal crimes
(PC)  were significant in explaining variations in violent crimes.
Both in the current year, and  also lagged variables, to see if
personal crimes affected violent crimes in subsequent years. 

I hypothesized  that these PCs could be correlated to strong control
variables such as weather, police on the street, LE funding -- but
which I have not yet aquired. This correlation hypothesis makes sense
in that PC variables should also go up in hot weather and down with
increased police and LE $.  (And in regression, a variable that is
correlated to a good control (independent) variable can be an
effective replacement for the actual control variable.)

And I pulled down 30 or so national economic variables -- not ideal,
but the best I have at the moment -- no DC specific control data yet.
This national economic variables should correlate, to a degree, with
specific DC economic data, so it is a reasonable first step.
 
I found a five variable model with a fairly good fit (1964-2003) with
an adjusted R^2 of .89. That means the model explains 89% of the
variation in violent crime. And each variable was statistically
significant -- the t-values for each var was 2, meaning the is less
than a 5% chance that the variable's contribution is just a fluke, a
random chance effect.

Several other diagnostics were run: the durbin-watson stat was good,
showing that the model did not have undue levels of autocorrelation
(variables were not correlated to their previous values -- t-1, t-2,
etc.) And there was low correlation between independent variables,
called non-collinearity -- an important characteristic for models to
have. Another diagnostic, hetroscadasticity was mild. 

So generally, for a quick model, it was fairly strong.

In the below table, for years 1990-2003 you can see the actual annual
changes in violent crime in DC in the first column, and the estimated
or predicted series from the model in the second column. As you can
see, it generally rises and falls in synch with the actual crime data.

Having a good core model as a baseline, I then added some ME
variables. First 3 variables -- one for the intervention year, and two
for subsequent years, to see if there were continuing effects. And
then another model with 5 ME variables -- for the test year and 4
subsequent years.

The ME effects were interesting. Their effect in the model was to show
about a 4% increase in violent crime from the ME in the test year, and
then a continuing decreasing crime impact of about 5% in the next 2-4
years.

The hypothesis could be that in the intervention ME year, things are
stirred up in the collective consciousness -- social unstressing so
to speak, and then good effects emerge in the subsequent years.

However, the significance of the ME variables was weak. There is a
20-50% chance that they are having no more impact than random chance.
It could jsut be the abortion effect we have discussed (per Levitt) or
other untested factors. Better DC specific data, more economic and
demographic and weather data, and the acquistion of monthly data
should shed light on this and determine better if there is a
significant ME effect that can be demonstrated by this type of analysis.

For now, its an interesting and thought-provoking result. Haiglin and
all may have been looking at the wrong thing -- current ME effects,
instead of where the action may really be --- future effects. That is,
ME may have its effect via long-term structural changes in collective
consciousness, not immediate ones -- which actually may be negative
(washing machine effect, perhaps).



Actual   - Predicted    
 No ME  ME 3 ME 5
199014.8%   12.3%   12.0%   7.8%
1991-0.2%   1.6%1.4%4.4%
199215.5%   4.5%4.5%9.6%
19933.1%-2.0%   3.1%4.9%
1994-8.9%   -6.2%   -8.9%   -10.6%
19950.0%6.3%0.0%0.0%
1996-7.2%   -2.6%   -2.6%   -0.7%
1997-18.0%  -15.7%  -16.0%  -11.1%
1998-15.1%  -12.6%  -12.6%  -7.4%
1999-5.3%   -8.2%   -8.1%   -6.6%
2000-7.4%   -5.6%   -5.6%   -6.1%
200115.2%   8.2%8.1%8.0%
2002-5.7%   -0.5%   -0.6%   8.2%
2003-1.8%   0.0%-0.1%   -7.5%


--
Estimated Independent Variables

I Vars  Beta   Std. Error   t-value   Sig
LAR 0.146493072 0.086854908 1.68664126  0.101712298
ROB 0.540438633 0.054472023 9.92139825  3.86814E-11
MT-20.118127037 0.05135057  2.300403597 0.028316925
UNEI0.029748611 0.020410475 1.457516846 0.155030356

[FairfieldLife] Re: Annual Regression Model of DC ME Project -- Interesting Results

2005-11-09 Thread akasha_108
Another try at the tables



Actual - Predicted 
 No ME   ME 3 ME 5
1990  14.8%12.3% 12.0%7.8%
1991  -0.2% 1.6%  1.4%4.4%
1992  15.5% 4.5%  4.5%9.6%
1993   3.1%-2.0%  3.1%4.9%
1994  -8.9%-6.2% -8.9%  -10.6%
1995   0.0% 6.3%  0.0%0.0%
1996  -7.2%-2.6% -2.6%   -0.7%
1997 -18.0%   -15.7%-16.0%  -11.1%
1998 -15.1%   -12.6%-12.6%   -7.4%
1999  -5.3%-8.2% -8.1%   -6.6%
2000  -7.4%-5.6% -5.6%   -6.1%
2001  15.2% 8.2%  8.1%8.0%
2002  -5.7%-0.5% -0.6%8.2%
2003  -1.8% 0.0% -0.1%   -7.5%


--
Estimated Independent Variables 
   
I Vars   Beta Std. Error  t-value   Sig   
LAR0.146490.086   1.6866 0.10171
ROB0.540430.054   9.9213 3.86814E-11
MT-2   0.118120.051   2.3004 0.02831
UNEI   0.029740.020   1.4575 0.15503
ME 0.041840.049   0.8468 0.40358
ME-1  -0.035630.0502 -0.7087 0.48376
ME-2  -0.067910.0505 -1.3423 0.18922
ME3   -0.053250.0492 -1.0813 0.28790
ME4   -0.038370.0539 -0.7114 0.48213










 Yahoo! Groups Sponsor ~-- 
Get fast access to your favorite Yahoo! Groups. Make Yahoo! your home page
http://us.click.yahoo.com/dpRU5A/wUILAA/yQLSAA/JjtolB/TM
~- 

To subscribe, send a message to:
[EMAIL PROTECTED]

Or go to: 
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/FairfieldLife/
and click 'Join This Group!' 
Yahoo! Groups Links

* To visit your group on the web, go to:
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/FairfieldLife/

* To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
[EMAIL PROTECTED]

* Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to:
http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
 




[FairfieldLife] Re: Annual Regression Model of DC ME Project -- Interesting Results

2005-11-09 Thread akasha_108
Another try at the tables

 Actual - Predicted 
No ME   ME 3ME 5
1990 14.8%  12.3%   12.0%   7.8%
1991-0.2%   1.6%1.4%4.4%
199215.5%   4.5%4.5%9.6%
19933.1%-2.0%   3.1%4.9%
1994-8.9%   -6.2%   -8.9%   -10.6%
19950.0%6.3%0.0%0.0%
1996-7.2%   -2.6%   -2.6%   -0.7%
1997-18.0%  -15.7%  -16.0%  -11.1%
1998-15.1%  -12.6%  -12.6%  -7.4%
1999-5.3%   -8.2%   -8.1%   -6.6%
2000-7.4%   -5.6%   -5.6%   -6.1%
200115.2%   8.2%8.1%8.0%
2002-5.7%   -0.5%   -0.6%   8.2%
2003-1.8%   0.0%-0.1%   -7.5%


--
Estimated Independent Variables

I Vars  BetaStd. Error  t-value Sig
LAR 0.1464  0.086   1.6866  0.10171
ROB 0.5404  0.054   9.9213  3.86814E-11
MT  -2 0.1  0.051   2.3004  0.02831
UNEI0.0297  0.020   1.4575  0.15503
ME  0.0418  0.049   0.8468  0.40358
ME-1-0.035  0.0502  -0.7087 0.48376
ME-2-0.067  0.0505  -1.3423 0.18922
ME3 -0.053  0.0492  -1.0813 0.28790
ME4 -0.038  0.0539  -0.7114 0.48213







 Yahoo! Groups Sponsor ~-- 
Get fast access to your favorite Yahoo! Groups. Make Yahoo! your home page
http://us.click.yahoo.com/dpRU5A/wUILAA/yQLSAA/JjtolB/TM
~- 

To subscribe, send a message to:
[EMAIL PROTECTED]

Or go to: 
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/FairfieldLife/
and click 'Join This Group!' 
Yahoo! Groups Links

* To visit your group on the web, go to:
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/FairfieldLife/

* To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
[EMAIL PROTECTED]

* Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to:
http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
 




[FairfieldLife] Re: Annual Regression Model of DC ME Project -- Interesting Results

2005-11-09 Thread akasha_108
Another try at the tables



 ___Actual - Predicted 
___No ME__ME 3ME 5___
1990 14.8%12.3%___12.0%7.8%
1991-0.2%_1.6%1.4%_4.4%
199215.5%_4.5%4.5%_9.6%
19933.1%__-2.0%___3.1%_4.9%
1994-8.9%_-6.2%___-8.9%-10.6%
19950.0%__6.3%0.0%_0.0%
1996-7.2%_-2.6%___-2.6%___-0.7%
1997-18.0%-15.7%__-16.0%__-11.1%
1998-15.1%-12.6%__-12.6%__-7.4%
1999-5.3%_-8.2%___-8.1% __-6.6%
2000-7.4%_-5.6%___-5.6%___-6.1%
200115.2%_8.2%8.1%_8.0%
2002-5.7%_-0.5%___-0.6%8.2%
2003-1.8%_0.0%-0.1%___-7.5%


--
Estimated Independent Variables

IVars_  Beta_   Std.Er__t-value__   Sig
LAR___  0.1464___   0.086___1.6866___   0.10171
ROB___  0.5404___   0.054___9.9213___   3.86814E-11
MT  -2 0.1___   0.051___2.3004___   0.02831
UNEI__  0.0297___   0.020___1.4575___   0.15503
ME  0.0418___   0.049___0.8468___   0.40358
ME-1__  -0.035___   0.050___-0.708___   0.48376
ME-2__  -0.067___   0.050___-1.342___   0.18922
ME3___  -0.053___   0.049___-1.081___   0.28790
ME4___  -0.038___   0.053___-0.711___   0.48213














 Yahoo! Groups Sponsor ~-- 
Get fast access to your favorite Yahoo! Groups. Make Yahoo! your home page
http://us.click.yahoo.com/dpRU5A/wUILAA/yQLSAA/JjtolB/TM
~- 

To subscribe, send a message to:
[EMAIL PROTECTED]

Or go to: 
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/FairfieldLife/
and click 'Join This Group!' 
Yahoo! Groups Links

* To visit your group on the web, go to:
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/FairfieldLife/

* To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
[EMAIL PROTECTED]

* Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to:
http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
 




[FairfieldLife] Re: Annual Regression Model of DC ME Project -- Interesting Results

2005-11-09 Thread akasha_108

An Excel graph of the first table is in the archives at the below link.

http://groups.yahoo.com/group/FairfieldLife/files/Maharishi%20Effect%20Published/




--- In FairfieldLife@yahoogroups.com, akasha_108 [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote:

 Another try at the tables
 
 
 
  ___Actual - Predicted 
 ___No ME__ME 3ME 5___
 1990 14.8%12.3%___12.0%7.8%
 1991-0.2%_1.6%1.4%_4.4%
 199215.5%_4.5%4.5%_9.6%
 19933.1%__-2.0%___3.1%_4.9%
 1994-8.9%_-6.2%___-8.9%-10.6%
 19950.0%__6.3%0.0%_0.0%
 1996-7.2%_-2.6%___-2.6%___-0.7%
 1997-18.0%-15.7%__-16.0%__-11.1%
 1998-15.1%-12.6%__-12.6%__-7.4%
 1999-5.3%_-8.2%___-8.1%   __-6.6%
 2000-7.4%_-5.6%___-5.6%___-6.1%
 200115.2%_8.2%8.1%_8.0%
 2002-5.7%_-0.5%___-0.6%8.2%
 2003-1.8%_0.0%-0.1%___-7.5%
 
 
 --
 Estimated Independent Variables
 
 IVars_Beta_   Std.Er__t-value__   Sig
 LAR___0.1464___   0.086___1.6866___   0.10171
 ROB___0.5404___   0.054___9.9213___   3.86814E-11
 MT-2 0.1___   0.051___2.3004___   0.02831
 UNEI__0.0297___   0.020___1.4575___   0.15503
 ME0.0418___   0.049___0.8468___   0.40358
 ME-1__-0.035___   0.050___-0.708___   0.48376
 ME-2__-0.067___   0.050___-1.342___   0.18922
 ME3___-0.053___   0.049___-1.081___   0.28790
 ME4___-0.038___   0.053___-0.711___   0.48213








 Yahoo! Groups Sponsor ~-- 
Get fast access to your favorite Yahoo! Groups. Make Yahoo! your home page
http://us.click.yahoo.com/dpRU5A/wUILAA/yQLSAA/JjtolB/TM
~- 

To subscribe, send a message to:
[EMAIL PROTECTED]

Or go to: 
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/FairfieldLife/
and click 'Join This Group!' 
Yahoo! Groups Links

* To visit your group on the web, go to:
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/FairfieldLife/

* To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
[EMAIL PROTECTED]

* Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to:
http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
 





[FairfieldLife] Re: Annual Regression Model of DC ME Project -- Interesting Results

2005-11-09 Thread akasha_108
Given that the ME intervnetion was only about 15% of 1993, if the
technology were applied full time, there are some interesting
implications. The initial effects could / should be six times stronger.

Thus the washing machine first year might see a 25% or so increase in
crime, and subsequent years could / would  realize a 30% decrease.

However, the more interesting thing is that the model, in its
rudamantary stage, indicates that the results are cumulative for at
least four subsequent years (and perhaps more, 4 years that were all
that were tested.) Thus EACH year of the program could have this
inital profile: 25% increase in first year, and 30% reduction in the
next four years. For simplicity, lets assume the increase in year 1
and decrease in later years are equal 25%. Thus the cumulaltive
effects would look like this for a permanent program.

Year_Cummultive ME effects

1+25%

2+25% - 25% = 0% 

3+25% - 25% -25% = -25%

4+25% - 25% -25% - 25% = -50%

5+25% - 25% -25% - 25% -25% = -75%

6+25% - 25% -25% - 25% -25% -25% = -100%

Per this cummulative effect, highly speculative at this point, but a
straight extrapolation of modeling results, in six years, crime would
be eliminated totally.


==

akasha_108 [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote (prior post):


The ME effects were interesting. Their effect in the model was to show
about a 4% increase in violent crime from the ME in the test year, and
then a continuing decreasing crime impact of about 5% in the next 2-4
years.

The hypothesis could be that in the intervention ME year, things are
stirred up in the collective consciousness -- social unstressing so
to speak, and then good effects emerge in the subsequent years.

However, the significance of the ME variables was weak. There is a
20-50% chance that they are having no more impact than random chance.
It could jsut be the abortion effect we have discussed (per Levitt) or
other untested factors. Better DC specific data, more economic and
demographic and weather data, and the acquistion of monthly data
should shed light on this and determine better if there is a
significant ME effect that can be demonstrated by this type of analysis.

For now, its an interesting and thought-provoking result. Haiglin and
all may have been looking at the wrong thing -- current ME effects,
instead of where the action may really be --- future effects. That is,
ME may have its effect via long-term structural changes in collective
consciousness, not immediate ones -- which actually may be negative
(washing machine effect, perhaps).






 ___Actual - Predicted 
___No ME__ME 3ME 5___
1990 14.8%12.3%___12.0%7.8%
1991-0.2%_1.6%1.4%_4.4%
199215.5%_4.5%4.5%_9.6%
19933.1%__-2.0%___3.1%_4.9%
1994-8.9%_-6.2%___-8.9%-10.6%
19950.0%__6.3%0.0%_0.0%
1996-7.2%_-2.6%___-2.6%___-0.7%
1997-18.0%-15.7%__-16.0%__-11.1%
1998-15.1%-12.6%__-12.6%__-7.4%
1999-5.3%_-8.2%___-8.1% __-6.6%
2000-7.4%_-5.6%___-5.6%___-6.1%
200115.2%_8.2%8.1%_8.0%
2002-5.7%_-0.5%___-0.6%8.2%
2003-1.8%_0.0%-0.1%___-7.5%


--
Estimated Independent Variables

IVars_  Beta_   Std.Er__t-value__   Sig
LAR___  0.1464___   0.086___1.6866___   0.10171
ROB___  0.5404___   0.054___9.9213___   3.86814E-11
MT  -2 0.1___   0.051___2.3004___   0.02831
UNEI__  0.0297___   0.020___1.4575___   0.15503
ME  0.0418___   0.049___0.8468___   0.40358
ME-1__  -0.035___   0.050___-0.708___   0.48376
ME-2__  -0.067___   0.050___-1.342___   0.18922
ME3___  -0.053___   0.049___-1.081___   0.28790
ME4___  -0.038___   0.053___-0.711___   0.48213














 Yahoo! Groups Sponsor ~-- 
Get fast access to your favorite Yahoo! Groups. Make Yahoo! your home page
http://us.click.yahoo.com/dpRU5A/wUILAA/yQLSAA/JjtolB/TM
~- 

To subscribe, send a message to:
[EMAIL PROTECTED]

Or go to: 
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/FairfieldLife/
and click 'Join This Group!' 
Yahoo! Groups Links

* To visit your group on the web, go to:
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/FairfieldLife/

* To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
[EMAIL PROTECTED]

* Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to:
http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
 




[FairfieldLife] Re: Was Lynch - Now Crime, Abortion the DC study

2005-11-09 Thread akasha_108
--- In FairfieldLife@yahoogroups.com, sparaig [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote:

 --- In FairfieldLife@yahoogroups.com, authfriend [EMAIL PROTECTED] 
 wrote:
  Then they discovered he was making derogatory public
  comments to the media and was strongly biased *against*
  the whole enterprise.  When he demanded to see their
  data, they were concerned that he would twist it and
  misrepresent their findings.  They no longer trusted
  him to give an honest account.
 
 
 That's not how Barry sees it, but given that he doesn't see his own 
 biases very well, I'm not surprised.


Wasn't he requesting in his research role at th U of Iowa? ifso,
Personality issues should not enter into it and MIU should have
honored a request from an adjacent and major university.








 Yahoo! Groups Sponsor ~-- 
Get fast access to your favorite Yahoo! Groups. Make Yahoo! your home page
http://us.click.yahoo.com/dpRU5A/wUILAA/yQLSAA/JjtolB/TM
~- 

To subscribe, send a message to:
[EMAIL PROTECTED]

Or go to: 
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/FairfieldLife/
and click 'Join This Group!' 
Yahoo! Groups Links

* To visit your group on the web, go to:
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/FairfieldLife/

* To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
[EMAIL PROTECTED]

* Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to:
http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
 




[FairfieldLife] Re: Was Lynch - Now Crime, Abortion the DC study

2005-11-09 Thread akasha_108
--- In FairfieldLife@yahoogroups.com, sparaig [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote:

 --- In FairfieldLife@yahoogroups.com, authfriend [EMAIL PROTECTED] 
 wrote:
 
  --- In FairfieldLife@yahoogroups.com, sparaig [EMAIL PROTECTED] 
 wrote:
  
   --- In FairfieldLife@yahoogroups.com, Vaj [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote:
  snip
Why do you think they MIU researchers refused to share their 
 raw 
data with the University of Iowa?
   
   As Judy pointed out,that was for the Jerusalem study. The DC 
 study 
   crime data comes from the FBI Uniform Crime Statistics, a book 
   published yearly by... the FBI. The other data was also from 
 public 
   sources.
  
  Actually, the data for the Jerusalem study were
  also publicly available.  What Markovsky wanted
  was not the raw data but the data from their
  statistical analysis.  He wanted to see all their
  calculations, in other words--what went into their
  study that was not reported in the published paper.
 
 
 Its a legitimate request, on the face of it. In fact, there are 
 proposals floating around to make that information a formal part of 
 any published study, given how cheap CD ROM burning is these days.



Or net archiving. Just set up a gmail account for the study -- for
archiving all data, all analysis outputs, and correspondence debating
key issues of the study.





 Yahoo! Groups Sponsor ~-- 
Get fast access to your favorite Yahoo! Groups. Make Yahoo! your home page
http://us.click.yahoo.com/dpRU5A/wUILAA/yQLSAA/JjtolB/TM
~- 

To subscribe, send a message to:
[EMAIL PROTECTED]

Or go to: 
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/FairfieldLife/
and click 'Join This Group!' 
Yahoo! Groups Links

* To visit your group on the web, go to:
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/FairfieldLife/

* To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
[EMAIL PROTECTED]

* Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to:
http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
 





[FairfieldLife] Re: Was Lynch - Now Crime, Abortion the DC study

2005-11-09 Thread akasha_108
--- In FairfieldLife@yahoogroups.com, sparaig [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote:

   
   As Judy pointed out,that was for the Jerusalem study. The DC 
 study crime data comes from the FBI Uniform Crime Statistics, a book 
published yearly by... the FBI. The other data was also from 
 public  sources.

But the problem is, they only have weekly data on line back to 1995,
and do not appear to sell the hard volumes for the earlier years --
that I can find on their site.

And all the control variables are hard to find for that time period--
if at all --  particularly if they found and used good weekly data on
weather, police on street, LE funding, employment and  personal income
by cohort, etc.








 Yahoo! Groups Sponsor ~-- 
Get fast access to your favorite Yahoo! Groups. Make Yahoo! your home page
http://us.click.yahoo.com/dpRU5A/wUILAA/yQLSAA/JjtolB/TM
~- 

To subscribe, send a message to:
[EMAIL PROTECTED]

Or go to: 
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/FairfieldLife/
and click 'Join This Group!' 
Yahoo! Groups Links

* To visit your group on the web, go to:
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/FairfieldLife/

* To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
[EMAIL PROTECTED]

* Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to:
http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
 




[FairfieldLife] Re: Washington DC Violent Crimes: 1993 highest rate per capita 1960-2003

2005-11-09 Thread akasha_108
--- In FairfieldLife@yahoogroups.com, sparaig [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote:

 --- In FairfieldLife@yahoogroups.com, akasha_108 [EMAIL PROTECTED] 
 wrote:
 
  Here are annual % change figures for DC violent crimes (and per
  100,000 pop figures). Its interesting to see the big swings. This
  underscores the fact that there are probably a number of factors
  driving crime levels. If these are not controlled in the analysis,
  short term swings, annual, but most certainly 8 week periods, can be
  due to factors totally unrelated to the intervention. 
  
  Also, note that in 1992, the year preceeding the study, there was 
 over
  a 15% increase in crime. The year before was almost 0. So there 
 seems
  to be some snapback effect, high levels may cause more police
  crackdowns, higher funding levels etc the following year.
  
  The Me study indicated a 25% drop in crime over 8 weeks. This by
  itself should amount to about a 4% decrease in the annual rate. But 
 it
  went up 3%. But the next year with no ME effect, crime decreased 
 over
  8%. Though having weekly figures would be best, even with annual
  numbers a 4% impact should be discernble.
  
 
 Geeze, Akasha, you just supported the ME while trying to discredit it.
 
 If the ME hadn't been in effect to cause a 4% decrease (according to 
 you) in annual crime concentrated during the Summer months, the 
 annual rate icnrease would have been 7%, which is comparable to the 
 next year's 8 percent.


Why do you feel that I am trying to discredit the ME study?I am simply
trying to understand what was done, and am beginning to do my own
analysis to explore the effect. I am not seeking any end result, i am
not trying to prove or disprove anything. I am trying to see if there
is such an effect. Via past studies, and via new analysis.

btw, I don't really buy your arguments  above of % changes, but we.








 Yahoo! Groups Sponsor ~-- 
Get fast access to your favorite Yahoo! Groups. Make Yahoo! your home page
http://us.click.yahoo.com/dpRU5A/wUILAA/yQLSAA/JjtolB/TM
~- 

To subscribe, send a message to:
[EMAIL PROTECTED]

Or go to: 
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/FairfieldLife/
and click 'Join This Group!' 
Yahoo! Groups Links

* To visit your group on the web, go to:
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/FairfieldLife/

* To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
[EMAIL PROTECTED]

* Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to:
http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
 




[FairfieldLife] Re: DC Districts

2005-11-09 Thread akasha_108
--- In FairfieldLife@yahoogroups.com, sparaig [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote:

 --- In FairfieldLife@yahoogroups.com, akasha_108 [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote:
 
  There are 7 districts in DC -- and I have found some annual crime data
  for them. Does anyone know which district the ME facilities were 
 located?
 
 
 The data was weekly. And was for the entire city.

 And do you know how i can obtain it?








 Yahoo! Groups Sponsor ~-- 
Get fast access to your favorite Yahoo! Groups. Make Yahoo! your home page
http://us.click.yahoo.com/dpRU5A/wUILAA/yQLSAA/JjtolB/TM
~- 

To subscribe, send a message to:
[EMAIL PROTECTED]

Or go to: 
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/FairfieldLife/
and click 'Join This Group!' 
Yahoo! Groups Links

* To visit your group on the web, go to:
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/FairfieldLife/

* To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
[EMAIL PROTECTED]

* Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to:
http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
 




[FairfieldLife] Re: Washington DC Violent Crimes: 1993 highest rate per capita 1960-2003

2005-11-09 Thread akasha_108
--- In FairfieldLife@yahoogroups.com, sparaig [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote:

 --- In FairfieldLife@yahoogroups.com, akasha_108 [EMAIL PROTECTED] 
 wrote:
  
  I wish their data was available -- to see what they actually tested
  for and the interval of the data (annual / weekly, etc). 
  
  The problem is a lot of important variables totest for in this 
 regard
  are usually available in annual not monthly or weekly form. Maybe
  weekly was available a decade + ago but its hard to find now. For
  instance, even the FBI crime data is available weekly only back to
  1995 (through them).  
 
 They used the FBI Uniform Crime Statistics data of that period, which 
 WAS in in weekly form. Are you sure its not still?

I am sure its in some libraries in hard copy form. I am seeking it
online in digital form. On FBI site I can only find weekly data to
1995. I found annual data forDC back to 1960 at Bureau of Judicial
Statistics.
 
 
 And deomgraphic and economic variables are often
  only available in annual form. And most available weather data is
  averaged over 20-40 years to give typical days. But for this 
 analysis,
  the actual annual and monthly time series are required.
  
 
 WEekly and monthly, I would think, not annual, unless you're talking 
 about comparing similar sub-annual periods year-over-year...

I would love monthly data, but some of the best most detailed
demographic data is actual by census period --every 10 years. Some
annual updates to that for big bucks is available. Some monthly for
current time frame, like employment, personal income by cohort etc.
But try to find that in monthly form for 1993. And before as would be
necessary for estimating strong models.
 






 Yahoo! Groups Sponsor ~-- 
Get fast access to your favorite Yahoo! Groups. Make Yahoo! your home page
http://us.click.yahoo.com/dpRU5A/wUILAA/yQLSAA/JjtolB/TM
~- 

To subscribe, send a message to:
[EMAIL PROTECTED]

Or go to: 
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/FairfieldLife/
and click 'Join This Group!' 
Yahoo! Groups Links

* To visit your group on the web, go to:
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/FairfieldLife/

* To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
[EMAIL PROTECTED]

* Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to:
http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
 





[FairfieldLife] Re: Was Lynch - Now Crime, Abortion the DC study

2005-11-09 Thread akasha_108
--- In FairfieldLife@yahoogroups.com, sparaig [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote:

 --- In FairfieldLife@yahoogroups.com, akasha_108 [EMAIL PROTECTED] 
 wrote:
 
  --- In FairfieldLife@yahoogroups.com, sparaig [EMAIL PROTECTED] 
 wrote:
  
 
 As Judy pointed out,that was for the Jerusalem study. The DC 
   study crime data comes from the FBI Uniform Crime Statistics, a 
 book 
  published yearly by... the FBI. The other data was also from 
   public  sources.
  
  But the problem is, they only have weekly data on line back to 1995,
  and do not appear to sell the hard volumes for the earlier years --
  that I can find on their site.
  
  And all the control variables are hard to find for that time period-
 -
  if at all --  particularly if they found and used good weekly data 
 on
  weather, police on street, LE funding, employment and  personal 
 income
  by cohort, etc.
 
 
 Have you asked MUM if you can getthis stuff from them?

Not yet. Not sure who to ask. Any suggestions?

But I want to run down outside data first. I am quite sure they did
not look at all relevant control variables. 9no one does) Lots of of
new research, a la levitt, has highlighted new stuff to look at.








 Yahoo! Groups Sponsor ~-- 
Get fast access to your favorite Yahoo! Groups. Make Yahoo! your home page
http://us.click.yahoo.com/dpRU5A/wUILAA/yQLSAA/JjtolB/TM
~- 

To subscribe, send a message to:
[EMAIL PROTECTED]

Or go to: 
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/FairfieldLife/
and click 'Join This Group!' 
Yahoo! Groups Links

* To visit your group on the web, go to:
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/FairfieldLife/

* To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
[EMAIL PROTECTED]

* Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to:
http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
 




[FairfieldLife] Re: Was Lynch - Now Crime, Abortion the DC study

2005-11-09 Thread akasha_108
--- In FairfieldLife@yahoogroups.com, authfriend [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote:
 
 For example, in another post akasha complains that
 only violent crime statistics were studied 

Not a complaint, just an observation.

  and
 expresses suspicion that the researchers left out
 statistics on nonviolent crime because they didn't
 demonstrate any effect.
   
Yes, thats not a high crime on their part. If they found non violent
crimes went down dramatically, I am confident the summary of the study
would highlight non-violent crimes. Don't you? Really? Thats how
analysis under pressure works. Its what happens in the real world.
People make their best case. Not a high crime. But one needs to be
aware that the researchers here, as in many other places, had
incentives to look for answers that met sponsors desires and
expecatations. No different from 1000's of corporate analysts. And
100's of non-profit foundation analysts. But maybe you have to have
been there in various situations and cases to understand this.
 

 With regard to akasha's comment above  about a single
 model, the way he states it makes me think he does
 not understand how the study was done and why. 

Ok, if I have misunderstoood, please explain it to me. Though you
appear to attribute an agenda to me, I have none. I am trying to
understand both the data and the analysis.

 I certainly could be wrong.  I didn't say it *couldn't*
 be the case that a single model could do what the
 researchers intended, only that I didn't see *how*
 it could.

OK.


Akasha's explanations are not on a level
 that I can comprehend, 
 
I do my best, really, I do try to make it understandable. Think about
it. For me it would be a happier place if people understood some
basics of modeling, statistics and regression.


 nor has he made much of an
 effort to help me out.

Sorry if it has not been apparent. Actually I wrote some posts,
detailing how regression works, with you in mind, Regardless, I am
happy to help you out in understanding any knowledge I might have
picked up along the way. Just ask, or perhaps be receptive to attempts
to share knowledge.

 But he hasn't seen the study.  It used highly
 sopisticated statistical methodology, and I don't
 think it's even possible to speculate about what
 was done on that level of sophistication.

Well, its not magic. Based on a survey of available data, constraints
on such and all, I can speculate with some degree of reasonablness as
to what issues they faced, and how they approached the problems
methodologically. I have been there. 







 Yahoo! Groups Sponsor ~-- 
Get fast access to your favorite Yahoo! Groups. Make Yahoo! your home page
http://us.click.yahoo.com/dpRU5A/wUILAA/yQLSAA/JjtolB/TM
~- 

To subscribe, send a message to:
[EMAIL PROTECTED]

Or go to: 
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/FairfieldLife/
and click 'Join This Group!' 
Yahoo! Groups Links

* To visit your group on the web, go to:
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/FairfieldLife/

* To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
[EMAIL PROTECTED]

* Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to:
http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
 




[FairfieldLife] Re: Other Earth-like worlds?

2005-11-09 Thread akasha_108
--- In FairfieldLife@yahoogroups.com, Rory Goff [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote:

 --- In FairfieldLife@yahoogroups.com, Rory Goff [EMAIL PROTECTED] 
 wrote:
 
  --- In FairfieldLife@yahoogroups.com, jim_flanegin 
 [EMAIL PROTECTED] 
  wrote:
 snip
   
   Off and away, to play, and play, and play!  Ooops! Damn, just 
 gave 
   away the ultra top secret of life...
  
  Yes, all those strata are essentially a mind-game to me -- the 
 only 
  one that really counts as far as governance is concerned is our 
  intimacy with and Love of Divine Mother, for She is Our marriage 
 to 
  and dance with all of creation :-)
 
 And speaking of the play of Divine Mother, I *highly* recommend 
 chanting the Sri Lalithambika Sahasranama Stotram -- the 1000 names 
 of Mother Divine :-)

Can you chant all 1008 names from memory








 Yahoo! Groups Sponsor ~-- 
Get fast access to your favorite Yahoo! Groups. Make Yahoo! your home page
http://us.click.yahoo.com/dpRU5A/wUILAA/yQLSAA/JjtolB/TM
~- 

To subscribe, send a message to:
[EMAIL PROTECTED]

Or go to: 
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/FairfieldLife/
and click 'Join This Group!' 
Yahoo! Groups Links

* To visit your group on the web, go to:
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/FairfieldLife/

* To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
[EMAIL PROTECTED]

* Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to:
http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
 




[FairfieldLife] Re: Was Lynch - Now Crime, Abortion the DC study

2005-11-09 Thread akasha_108
--- In FairfieldLife@yahoogroups.com, authfriend [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote:

 --- In FairfieldLife@yahoogroups.com, akasha_108 [EMAIL PROTECTED] 
 wrote:
 
  --- In FairfieldLife@yahoogroups.com, authfriend [EMAIL PROTECTED] 
 wrote:
   
   For example, in another post akasha complains that
   only violent crime statistics were studied 
  
  Not a complaint, just an observation.
  
and
   expresses suspicion that the researchers left out
   statistics on nonviolent crime because they didn't
   demonstrate any effect.
 
  Yes, thats not a high crime on their part. If they found non violent
  crimes went down dramatically, I am confident the summary of the 
  study would highlight non-violent crimes. Don't you?
 
 They wouldn't have found that nonviolent crimes went
 down dramatically because they weren't looking at
 nonviolent crime statistics because the study was on
 violent crime only.
 
 duh
 
  Really? Thats how
  analysis under pressure works. Its what happens in the real world.
  People make their best case. Not a high crime. But one needs to be
  aware that the researchers here, as in many other places, had
  incentives to look for answers that met sponsors desires and
  expecatations.
 
 For God's sake, they *predicted* that violent
 crime would drop by 20 percent when they announced
 the demonstration project.  This is the TMO,
 remember?  TM True Believer researchers.  They
 weren't trying to please sponsors, they were out to
 confirm their own convictions.
 
  No different from 1000's of corporate analysts. And
  100's of non-profit foundation analysts. But maybe you have to have
  been there in various situations and cases to understand this.
 
 It isn't a matter of *understanding* it, it's a
 GIVEN.  Good *grief*, akasha.  You're just not
 paying attention.
 
 They announced, with great fanfare, that the project
 would demonstrate a 20 percent drop in violent crime.
 They announced the protocol of the study that was 
 going to prove it beforehand.
 
 Can you *imagine* the horselaughs if they'd turned
 around and used nonviolent crime because the stats
 were better?  Get real!
 
 They never even considered looking at nonviolent
 crime.  That isn't what they were out to prove.


okie dokie. 







 Yahoo! Groups Sponsor ~-- 
Get fast access to your favorite Yahoo! Groups. Make Yahoo! your home page
http://us.click.yahoo.com/dpRU5A/wUILAA/yQLSAA/JjtolB/TM
~- 

To subscribe, send a message to:
[EMAIL PROTECTED]

Or go to: 
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/FairfieldLife/
and click 'Join This Group!' 
Yahoo! Groups Links

* To visit your group on the web, go to:
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/FairfieldLife/

* To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
[EMAIL PROTECTED]

* Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to:
http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
 




[FairfieldLife] Re: Was Lynch - Now Crime, Abortion the DC study

2005-11-09 Thread akasha_108
--- In FairfieldLife@yahoogroups.com, sparaig [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote:
 
 Eh, I'm with akasha on this one. 

And not on all issues?

:) 







 Yahoo! Groups Sponsor ~-- 
Get fast access to your favorite Yahoo! Groups. Make Yahoo! your home page
http://us.click.yahoo.com/dpRU5A/wUILAA/yQLSAA/JjtolB/TM
~- 

To subscribe, send a message to:
[EMAIL PROTECTED]

Or go to: 
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/FairfieldLife/
and click 'Join This Group!' 
Yahoo! Groups Links

* To visit your group on the web, go to:
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/FairfieldLife/

* To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
[EMAIL PROTECTED]

* Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to:
http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
 




[FairfieldLife] Re: Lynch former paperboy

2005-11-08 Thread akasha_108
--- In FairfieldLife@yahoogroups.com, sparaig [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote:

  Well, maybe not geniuses. The dramatic decrease in the crime rate in
  the 90's has been shown to be primarily the result of Roe v. Wade.

 
 I still suspect a Post Hoc fallacy in that finding, but whatever...


And I still suspect you have not read the book in which Levitt
presents a strong case for causality, but whatever ...







 Yahoo! Groups Sponsor ~-- 
Get fast access to your favorite Yahoo! Groups. Make Yahoo! your home page
http://us.click.yahoo.com/dpRU5A/wUILAA/yQLSAA/JjtolB/TM
~- 

To subscribe, send a message to:
[EMAIL PROTECTED]

Or go to: 
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/FairfieldLife/
and click 'Join This Group!' 
Yahoo! Groups Links

* To visit your group on the web, go to:
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/FairfieldLife/

* To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
[EMAIL PROTECTED]

* Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to:
http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
 





[FairfieldLife] Re: Roe v. Wade (was paperboy)

2005-11-08 Thread akasha_108
--- In FairfieldLife@yahoogroups.com, bmorry2000 [EMAIL PROTECTED]
wrote:

 Do some research on partial birth abortion.
 
 This will help you to decide what a baby looks likein case you 
 are not sure.
 
 P.S.  In response to others: naturally ejaculated sperm, 
 menstruation (where an unfertilize egg is discarded), and 
 spontaneous miscarriage are not violently induced--like legal 
 abortion.  Again, refer to the literature on partial birth abortion.
 
 

So are you against all abortion -- as implied in previous posts? Or
are you only opposed to partial-birth abortions? Or are you opposed to
both but playing bait and switch / strawman games?

If violently induced is your criteria for opposing abortion, then
you would appear to approve of the use of the morning after pill and
the oral abortion pill.











 Yahoo! Groups Sponsor ~-- 
Get fast access to your favorite Yahoo! Groups. Make Yahoo! your home page
http://us.click.yahoo.com/dpRU5A/wUILAA/yQLSAA/JjtolB/TM
~- 

To subscribe, send a message to:
[EMAIL PROTECTED]

Or go to: 
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/FairfieldLife/
and click 'Join This Group!' 
Yahoo! Groups Links

* To visit your group on the web, go to:
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/FairfieldLife/

* To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
[EMAIL PROTECTED]

* Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to:
http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
 





  1   2   3   4   5   6   7   8   9   10   >