[FairfieldLife] Re: Annual Regression Model of DC ME Project -- Interesting Results
Another try at the tables Actual - Predicted No ME ME 3 ME 5 1990 14.8%12.3% 12.0%7.8% 1991 -0.2% 1.6% 1.4%4.4% 1992 15.5% 4.5% 4.5%9.6% 1993 3.1%-2.0% 3.1%4.9% 1994 -8.9%-6.2% -8.9% -10.6% 1995 0.0% 6.3% 0.0%0.0% 1996 -7.2%-2.6% -2.6% -0.7% 1997 -18.0% -15.7%-16.0% -11.1% 1998 -15.1% -12.6%-12.6% -7.4% 1999 -5.3%-8.2% -8.1% -6.6% 2000 -7.4%-5.6% -5.6% -6.1% 2001 15.2% 8.2% 8.1%8.0% 2002 -5.7%-0.5% -0.6%8.2% 2003 -1.8% 0.0% -0.1% -7.5% -- Estimated Independent Variables I Vars Beta Std. Error t-value Sig LAR0.146490.086 1.6866 0.10171 ROB0.540430.054 9.9213 3.86814E-11 MT-2 0.118120.051 2.3004 0.02831 UNEI 0.029740.020 1.4575 0.15503 ME 0.041840.049 0.8468 0.40358 ME-1 -0.035630.0502 -0.7087 0.48376 ME-2 -0.067910.0505 -1.3423 0.18922 ME3 -0.053250.0492 -1.0813 0.28790 ME4 -0.038370.0539 -0.7114 0.48213 Yahoo! Groups Sponsor ~-- Get fast access to your favorite Yahoo! Groups. Make Yahoo! your home page http://us.click.yahoo.com/dpRU5A/wUILAA/yQLSAA/JjtolB/TM ~- To subscribe, send a message to: [EMAIL PROTECTED] Or go to: http://groups.yahoo.com/group/FairfieldLife/ and click 'Join This Group!' Yahoo! Groups Links * To visit your group on the web, go to: http://groups.yahoo.com/group/FairfieldLife/ * To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to: [EMAIL PROTECTED] * Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to: http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
[FairfieldLife] Re: Annual Regression Model of DC ME Project -- Interesting Results
Another try at the tables Actual - Predicted No ME ME 3ME 5 1990 14.8% 12.3% 12.0% 7.8% 1991-0.2% 1.6%1.4%4.4% 199215.5% 4.5%4.5%9.6% 19933.1%-2.0% 3.1%4.9% 1994-8.9% -6.2% -8.9% -10.6% 19950.0%6.3%0.0%0.0% 1996-7.2% -2.6% -2.6% -0.7% 1997-18.0% -15.7% -16.0% -11.1% 1998-15.1% -12.6% -12.6% -7.4% 1999-5.3% -8.2% -8.1% -6.6% 2000-7.4% -5.6% -5.6% -6.1% 200115.2% 8.2%8.1%8.0% 2002-5.7% -0.5% -0.6% 8.2% 2003-1.8% 0.0%-0.1% -7.5% -- Estimated Independent Variables I Vars BetaStd. Error t-value Sig LAR 0.1464 0.086 1.6866 0.10171 ROB 0.5404 0.054 9.9213 3.86814E-11 MT -2 0.1 0.051 2.3004 0.02831 UNEI0.0297 0.020 1.4575 0.15503 ME 0.0418 0.049 0.8468 0.40358 ME-1-0.035 0.0502 -0.7087 0.48376 ME-2-0.067 0.0505 -1.3423 0.18922 ME3 -0.053 0.0492 -1.0813 0.28790 ME4 -0.038 0.0539 -0.7114 0.48213 Yahoo! Groups Sponsor ~-- Get fast access to your favorite Yahoo! Groups. Make Yahoo! your home page http://us.click.yahoo.com/dpRU5A/wUILAA/yQLSAA/JjtolB/TM ~- To subscribe, send a message to: [EMAIL PROTECTED] Or go to: http://groups.yahoo.com/group/FairfieldLife/ and click 'Join This Group!' Yahoo! Groups Links * To visit your group on the web, go to: http://groups.yahoo.com/group/FairfieldLife/ * To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to: [EMAIL PROTECTED] * Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to: http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
[FairfieldLife] Re: Annual Regression Model of DC ME Project -- Interesting Results
Another try at the tables ___Actual - Predicted ___No ME__ME 3ME 5___ 1990 14.8%12.3%___12.0%7.8% 1991-0.2%_1.6%1.4%_4.4% 199215.5%_4.5%4.5%_9.6% 19933.1%__-2.0%___3.1%_4.9% 1994-8.9%_-6.2%___-8.9%-10.6% 19950.0%__6.3%0.0%_0.0% 1996-7.2%_-2.6%___-2.6%___-0.7% 1997-18.0%-15.7%__-16.0%__-11.1% 1998-15.1%-12.6%__-12.6%__-7.4% 1999-5.3%_-8.2%___-8.1% __-6.6% 2000-7.4%_-5.6%___-5.6%___-6.1% 200115.2%_8.2%8.1%_8.0% 2002-5.7%_-0.5%___-0.6%8.2% 2003-1.8%_0.0%-0.1%___-7.5% -- Estimated Independent Variables IVars_ Beta_ Std.Er__t-value__ Sig LAR___ 0.1464___ 0.086___1.6866___ 0.10171 ROB___ 0.5404___ 0.054___9.9213___ 3.86814E-11 MT -2 0.1___ 0.051___2.3004___ 0.02831 UNEI__ 0.0297___ 0.020___1.4575___ 0.15503 ME 0.0418___ 0.049___0.8468___ 0.40358 ME-1__ -0.035___ 0.050___-0.708___ 0.48376 ME-2__ -0.067___ 0.050___-1.342___ 0.18922 ME3___ -0.053___ 0.049___-1.081___ 0.28790 ME4___ -0.038___ 0.053___-0.711___ 0.48213 Yahoo! Groups Sponsor ~-- Get fast access to your favorite Yahoo! Groups. Make Yahoo! your home page http://us.click.yahoo.com/dpRU5A/wUILAA/yQLSAA/JjtolB/TM ~- To subscribe, send a message to: [EMAIL PROTECTED] Or go to: http://groups.yahoo.com/group/FairfieldLife/ and click 'Join This Group!' Yahoo! Groups Links * To visit your group on the web, go to: http://groups.yahoo.com/group/FairfieldLife/ * To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to: [EMAIL PROTECTED] * Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to: http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
[FairfieldLife] Re: Annual Regression Model of DC ME Project -- Interesting Results
An Excel graph of the first table is in the archives at the below link. http://groups.yahoo.com/group/FairfieldLife/files/Maharishi%20Effect%20Published/ --- In FairfieldLife@yahoogroups.com, akasha_108 [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote: Another try at the tables ___Actual - Predicted ___No ME__ME 3ME 5___ 1990 14.8%12.3%___12.0%7.8% 1991-0.2%_1.6%1.4%_4.4% 199215.5%_4.5%4.5%_9.6% 19933.1%__-2.0%___3.1%_4.9% 1994-8.9%_-6.2%___-8.9%-10.6% 19950.0%__6.3%0.0%_0.0% 1996-7.2%_-2.6%___-2.6%___-0.7% 1997-18.0%-15.7%__-16.0%__-11.1% 1998-15.1%-12.6%__-12.6%__-7.4% 1999-5.3%_-8.2%___-8.1% __-6.6% 2000-7.4%_-5.6%___-5.6%___-6.1% 200115.2%_8.2%8.1%_8.0% 2002-5.7%_-0.5%___-0.6%8.2% 2003-1.8%_0.0%-0.1%___-7.5% -- Estimated Independent Variables IVars_Beta_ Std.Er__t-value__ Sig LAR___0.1464___ 0.086___1.6866___ 0.10171 ROB___0.5404___ 0.054___9.9213___ 3.86814E-11 MT-2 0.1___ 0.051___2.3004___ 0.02831 UNEI__0.0297___ 0.020___1.4575___ 0.15503 ME0.0418___ 0.049___0.8468___ 0.40358 ME-1__-0.035___ 0.050___-0.708___ 0.48376 ME-2__-0.067___ 0.050___-1.342___ 0.18922 ME3___-0.053___ 0.049___-1.081___ 0.28790 ME4___-0.038___ 0.053___-0.711___ 0.48213 Yahoo! Groups Sponsor ~-- Get fast access to your favorite Yahoo! Groups. Make Yahoo! your home page http://us.click.yahoo.com/dpRU5A/wUILAA/yQLSAA/JjtolB/TM ~- To subscribe, send a message to: [EMAIL PROTECTED] Or go to: http://groups.yahoo.com/group/FairfieldLife/ and click 'Join This Group!' Yahoo! Groups Links * To visit your group on the web, go to: http://groups.yahoo.com/group/FairfieldLife/ * To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to: [EMAIL PROTECTED] * Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to: http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
[FairfieldLife] Re: Annual Regression Model of DC ME Project -- Interesting Results
Given that the ME intervnetion was only about 15% of 1993, if the technology were applied full time, there are some interesting implications. The initial effects could / should be six times stronger. Thus the washing machine first year might see a 25% or so increase in crime, and subsequent years could / would realize a 30% decrease. However, the more interesting thing is that the model, in its rudamantary stage, indicates that the results are cumulative for at least four subsequent years (and perhaps more, 4 years that were all that were tested.) Thus EACH year of the program could have this inital profile: 25% increase in first year, and 30% reduction in the next four years. For simplicity, lets assume the increase in year 1 and decrease in later years are equal 25%. Thus the cumulaltive effects would look like this for a permanent program. Year_Cummultive ME effects 1+25% 2+25% - 25% = 0% 3+25% - 25% -25% = -25% 4+25% - 25% -25% - 25% = -50% 5+25% - 25% -25% - 25% -25% = -75% 6+25% - 25% -25% - 25% -25% -25% = -100% Per this cummulative effect, highly speculative at this point, but a straight extrapolation of modeling results, in six years, crime would be eliminated totally. == akasha_108 [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote (prior post): The ME effects were interesting. Their effect in the model was to show about a 4% increase in violent crime from the ME in the test year, and then a continuing decreasing crime impact of about 5% in the next 2-4 years. The hypothesis could be that in the intervention ME year, things are stirred up in the collective consciousness -- social unstressing so to speak, and then good effects emerge in the subsequent years. However, the significance of the ME variables was weak. There is a 20-50% chance that they are having no more impact than random chance. It could jsut be the abortion effect we have discussed (per Levitt) or other untested factors. Better DC specific data, more economic and demographic and weather data, and the acquistion of monthly data should shed light on this and determine better if there is a significant ME effect that can be demonstrated by this type of analysis. For now, its an interesting and thought-provoking result. Haiglin and all may have been looking at the wrong thing -- current ME effects, instead of where the action may really be --- future effects. That is, ME may have its effect via long-term structural changes in collective consciousness, not immediate ones -- which actually may be negative (washing machine effect, perhaps). ___Actual - Predicted ___No ME__ME 3ME 5___ 1990 14.8%12.3%___12.0%7.8% 1991-0.2%_1.6%1.4%_4.4% 199215.5%_4.5%4.5%_9.6% 19933.1%__-2.0%___3.1%_4.9% 1994-8.9%_-6.2%___-8.9%-10.6% 19950.0%__6.3%0.0%_0.0% 1996-7.2%_-2.6%___-2.6%___-0.7% 1997-18.0%-15.7%__-16.0%__-11.1% 1998-15.1%-12.6%__-12.6%__-7.4% 1999-5.3%_-8.2%___-8.1% __-6.6% 2000-7.4%_-5.6%___-5.6%___-6.1% 200115.2%_8.2%8.1%_8.0% 2002-5.7%_-0.5%___-0.6%8.2% 2003-1.8%_0.0%-0.1%___-7.5% -- Estimated Independent Variables IVars_ Beta_ Std.Er__t-value__ Sig LAR___ 0.1464___ 0.086___1.6866___ 0.10171 ROB___ 0.5404___ 0.054___9.9213___ 3.86814E-11 MT -2 0.1___ 0.051___2.3004___ 0.02831 UNEI__ 0.0297___ 0.020___1.4575___ 0.15503 ME 0.0418___ 0.049___0.8468___ 0.40358 ME-1__ -0.035___ 0.050___-0.708___ 0.48376 ME-2__ -0.067___ 0.050___-1.342___ 0.18922 ME3___ -0.053___ 0.049___-1.081___ 0.28790 ME4___ -0.038___ 0.053___-0.711___ 0.48213 Yahoo! Groups Sponsor ~-- Get fast access to your favorite Yahoo! Groups. Make Yahoo! your home page http://us.click.yahoo.com/dpRU5A/wUILAA/yQLSAA/JjtolB/TM ~- To subscribe, send a message to: [EMAIL PROTECTED] Or go to: http://groups.yahoo.com/group/FairfieldLife/ and click 'Join This Group!' Yahoo! Groups Links * To visit your group on the web, go to: http://groups.yahoo.com/group/FairfieldLife/ * To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to: [EMAIL PROTECTED] * Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to: http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
