wrote:
>
> on 6/3/06 1:05 AM, shempmcgurk at [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote:
>
> > --- In FairfieldLife@yahoogroups.com, Rick Archer <fairfieldlife@>
> > wrote:
> >>
> >> on 6/2/06 7:05 PM, shempmcgurk at shempmcgurk@ wrote:
> >>
> >>> One burp, one insignificant 3 second fart from the sun equals about
> >>> 1,000 years of burning fossil fuels on planet Earth at current
> >>> consumption levels.
> >>
> >> Yeah, but that burp takes place on the sun, not here.
> >>
> >
> > ...but it's these flairs that affect life here on earth.
>
> I doubt that a 3 second solar flair has the same effect on our
environment
> as 1,000 years of burning fossil fuels. Show me a scientist who says
that.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greenhouse_effect
The above gives a good overview of greenhouse effect dynamics --
solar, natural earth processes, and manmade. As well as the greenhouse
effect on mars and venus. (Providing perspective on rhetorical games
of claiming warming on venus proves that global warming on earth is
totally natural.)
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_warming
Provides an overview of natural and human induced warming from
greenhouse-effect dynamics.
"The scientific opinion on climate change is that the average global
temperature has risen 0.6 ± 0.2 °C over the 20th century, and that it
is likely that "most of the warming observed over the last 50 years is
attributable to human activities" [1]. The increased volumes of carbon
dioxide and other greenhouse gases (GHGs) released by the burning of
fossil fuels, land clearing and agriculture, and other human
activities, are the primary sources of the human-induced component of
warming.
Observational sensitivity studies and climate models referenced by the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) predict that global
temperatures may increase by between 1.4 and 5.8 °C between 1990 and
2100. "
...
The climate system varies both through natural, "internal" processes
as well as in response to variations in external "forcing" from both
human and non-human causes, including solar activity, volcanic
emissions, and greenhouse gases. Climatologists accept that the earth
has warmed recently, but the cause or causes of this change is more
controversial, especially outside the scientific community.
Adding carbon dioxide (CO2) or methane (CH4) to Earth's atmosphere,
with no other changes, will make the planet's surface warmer;
greenhouse gases create a natural greenhouse effect without which
temperatures on Earth would be an estimated 30 °C lower, and the Earth
uninhabitable. It is therefore not correct to say that there is a
debate between those who "believe in" and "oppose" the theory that
adding carbon dioxide or CH4 to the Earth's atmosphere will result in
warmer surface temperatures on Earth, absent indirect mitigating
effects. Rather, the debate is about what the net effect of the
addition of carbon dioxide and CH4 will be.
Due to the thermal inertia of the earth's oceans and slow responses of
other indirect effects, the Earth's current climate is not in
equilibrium with the forcing imposed by increased greenhouse gases.
Climate commitment studies indicate that, even if greenhouse gases
were stabilised at present day levels, a further warming of perhaps
0.5 °C to 1.0 °C would still occur.
....
The atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide and CH4 have
increased by 31% and 149% respectively above pre-industrial levels
since 1750. This is considerably higher than at any time during the
last 650,000 years, the period for which reliable data has been
extracted from ice cores. From less direct geological evidence it is
believed that carbon dioxide values this high were last attained 40
million years ago. About three-quarters of the anthropogenic emissions
of carbon dioxide to the atmosphere during the past 20 years is due to
fossil fuel burning. The rest is predominantly due to land-use change,
especially deforestation [5].
The longest continuous instrumental measurement of carbon dioxide
mixing ratios began in 1958 at Mauna Loa. Since then, the annually
averaged value has increased monotonically from 315 ppmv as shown by
the Keeling Curve. The concentration reached 376 ppmv in 2003. South
Pole records show similar growth [6]. The monthly measurements display
small seasonal oscillations.
...
Globally, the majority of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions arise
from fuel combustion. The remainder is accounted for largely by
"fugitive fuel" (fuel consumed in the production and transport of
fuel), emissions from industrial processes (excluding fuel
combustion), and agriculture: these contributed 5.8%, 5.2% and 3.3%
respectively in 1990. Current figures are broadly comparable.[9]
Around 17% of emissions are accounted for by the combustion of fuel
for the generation of electricity. A small percentage of emissions
come from natural and anthropogenic biological sources, with
approximately 6.3% derived from agriculturally produced methane and
nitrous oxide.
Positive feedback effects, such as the expected release of possibly as
much as 70,000 million tonnes of methane from permafrost peat bogs in
Siberia, which have started melting due to the rising temperatures,
may lead to significant additional sources of greenhouse gas
emissions. [10]. Note that anthropogenic emissions of other pollutants
- notably sulphate aerosol - exert a cooling effect; this can account
for the plateau/cooling seen in the temperature record in the middle
of the 20th century [11], though this may also be due to intervening
natural cycles.
...
mpact on glaciers
Global Glacial Mass-Balance in the last forty years, reported to the
WGMS and NSIDC. Note the increased negative trend beginning in the
late 1980s that is driving the increased rate and number of retreating
glaciers.(Dyurgerov)
Enlarge
Global Glacial Mass-Balance in the last forty years, reported to the
WGMS and NSIDC. Note the increased negative trend beginning in the
late 1980s that is driving the increased rate and number of retreating
glaciers.(Dyurgerov)
Global warming has led to negative glacier mass balance, causing
glacier retreat around the world. Oerlemans (2005) showed a net
decline in 142 of the 144 mountain glaciers with records from 1900 to
1980. Since 1980 global glacier retreat has increased significantly.
Similarly, Dyurgerov and Meier (2005) averaged glacier data across
large scale regions (e.g. Europe) and found that every region had a
net decline from 1960 to 2002, though a few local regions (e.g.
Scandinavia) have shown increases. Some glaciers that are in
disequilibrium with present climate have already disappeared [25] and
increasing temperatures are expected to cause continued retreat in the
majority of alpine glaciers around the world. Upwards of 90% of
glaciers reported to the World Glacier Monitoring Service have
retreated since 1995 [26].
Of particular concern is the potential for failure of the Hindu Kush
and Himalayan glacial melts. The melt of these glaciers is a large and
reliable source of water for China, India, and much of Asia, and these
waters form a principal dry-season water source. Increased melting
would cause greater flow for several decades, after which "some areas
of the most populated region on Earth are likely to 'run out of
water'" (T. P. Barnett, J. C. Adam and D. P. Lettenmaier 2005) [27]
[edit]
Destabilisation of ocean currents
There is also some speculation that global warming could, via a
shutdown or slowdown of the thermohaline circulation, trigger
localised cooling in the North Atlantic and lead to cooling, or lesser
warming, in that region. This would affect in particular areas like
Scandinavia and Britain that are warmed by the North Atlantic drift.
...
Financial institutions, including the world's two largest insurance
companies, Munich Re and Swiss Re, warned in a 2002 study (UNEP
summary) that "the increasing frequency of severe climatic events,
coupled with social trends" could cost almost 150 billion US dollars
each year in the next decade. These costs would, through increased
costs related to insurance and disaster relief, burden customers, tax
payers, and industry alike.
According to the Association of British Insurers, limiting carbon
emissions could avoid 80% of the projected additional annual cost of
tropical cyclones by the 2080s. According to Choi and Fisher (2003)
each 1% increase in annual precipitation could enlarge catastrophe
loss by as much as 2.8%.
The United Nations' Environmental Program recently announced that
severe weather around the world has made 2005 the most costly year on
record [35], although there is no way to prove that [a given
hurricane] either was, or was not, affected by global warming [36].
Preliminary estimates presented by the German insurance foundation
Munich Re put the economic losses at more than 200 billion U.S.
dollars, with insured losses running at more than 70 billion U.S. dollars.
....
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