Published on 25 May 2008 by Energy Bulletin.
Co-founder of sustainable design movement illuminates our uncertain futures
by Future Scenarios
The Australian co-founder of the permaculture concept David Holmgren has today
launched a new global scenario planning website, Future Scenarios:
www.FutureScenarios.org.
Holmgren says his future scenarios will help both policy makers and activists
come to terms with the end of the era of growth.
While the end of growth is so unthinkable to many policy makers and economists
that they use the term negative-growth, Holmgren says we are already
entering a generations-long era of energy descent. We now face less and less
available energy each year, coupled with a destabilised climate.
The simultaneous onset of climate change and the peaking of global oil supply
represent unprecedented challenges for human civilisation. Each limits the
effective options for responses to the other, writes Holmgren on
www.futurescenarios.org.
Holmgren uses a scenario planning framework to bring to life the likely
cultural, political, agricultural and economic implications of peak oil and
climate change.
Scenario planning allows us to use stories about the future as a reference
point for imagining how particular strategies and structures might thrive,
fail or be transformed, says Holmgren
Future Scenarios depicts four very different futures. Each is a permutation of
mild or destructive climate change, combined with either slow or severe energy
declines. Scenarios range from the relatively benign Green Tech to the near
catastrophic Lifeboats scenario.
Many futurists are looking at Facebook, robot pets and other i-fads, whereas
David has been studying a much bigger picture. He works from the fundamental
resource and environmental constraints, and Im convinced that hes got his
assumptions right where others have them very wrong. He has followed through
with unusual insight, drawing on 30 years of permaculture thinking, which I
would say makes him the most important futurist in the world right now, said
Adam Grubb founder of Energy Bulletin (www.energybulletin.net with over
400,000 visitors a month.)
These arent two dimensional nightmarish scenarios designed simply to scare
people into environmental action. They are compellingly fleshed out visions of
quite plausible alternative futures which delve into energy, politics,
agriculture, cultural and even spiritual trends. They help us reconcile our
own competing fears and hopes for the future, and to consider the best
strategies for adapting to a changing world, says Grubb.
Holmgren says we will need resilience and adaptability in the face of radical
change.
Energy Descent
Holmgren coined the term energy descent in 2005 as a less negatively loaded
way than decline or collapse for describing a future defined by constantly
diminishing energy production.
I chose the word descent because it implies a long and sustained process
through which it is possible to survive and even thrive. While energy descent
does suggest the demise of globalised industrial civilisation, that process
will play out over many decades, if not centuries. For individuals,
households, organisations and communities focused on socially and ecologically
adaptive design, energy descent is as much an opportunity as an obstacle.
Realistic assessment of the larger forces at work in the world helps empower
us to better refine our strategies.
About Permaculture
Permaculture is an environmental design framework modelled on the patterns and
relationships found in nature, yielding an abundance of food, fibre and energy
for provision of local needs.
About David Holmgren
Holmgren co-wrote the first permaculture text Permaculture One in 1976 with
Bill Mollison (published in 1978). With his 2002 book Permaculture: Principles
and Pathways Beyond Sustainability David re-emerged from the relative shadows
as the leading intellectual force of the permaculture movement. Rob Hopkins,
founder of the popular Transition Towns initiatives in the UK, described
Principles and Pathways as the most important book of the last 15 years.
David, his partner Su Dennett, and their son Oliver live at Melliodora a
small permaculture demonstration property in central Victoria, Australia where
they are self sufficient in fruit, vegetables and animal products and provide
most of their own energy needs.
Futher info:
http://www.futurescenarios.orghttp://www.holmgren.com.au
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ Editorial Notes ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
See original release for contact information. The article may be reproduced,
since it is a press release. The ideas of permaculture have been a long-time
inspiration for Energy Bulletin. Energy Bulletin founder Adam Grubb (aka Adam
Fenderson) has been working with David Holmgren for several years. An
interview that Adam did with Holmgren (Peak Oil and Permaculture: David
Holmgren on Energy Descent) first got me involved with Energy Bulletin.
-BA
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
Earn your permaculture design certificate.
The Finger Lakes Permaculture Institute
offers affordable local classes.
http://www.fingerlakespermaculture.org
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
The Australian co-founder of the permaculture concept David Holmgren has today launched a new global scenario planning website, Future Scenarios: www.FutureScenarios.org.
Holmgren says his future scenarios will help both policy makers and activists come to terms with the end of the era of growth.
While the end of growth is so unthinkable to many policy makers and economists that they use the term negative-growth, Holmgren says we are already entering a generations-long era of energy descent. We now face less and less available energy each year, coupled with a destabilised climate.
The simultaneous onset of climate change and the peaking of global
oil supply represent unprecedented challenges for human civilisation. Each limits the effective options for responses to the other, writes Holmgren on www.futurescenarios.org.
Holmgren uses a scenario planning framework to bring to life the likely cultural, political, agricultural and economic implications of peak oil and climate change.
Scenario planning allows us to use stories about the future as a reference point for imagining how particular strategies and structures might thrive, fail or be transformed, says Holmgren
Future Scenarios depicts four very different futures. Each is a permutation of mild or destructive climate change, combined with either slow or severe energy declines. Scenarios range from the relatively benign Green Tech to the near catastrophic Lifeboats scenario.
Many futurists are looking at Facebook, robot pets and other i-fads, whereas David has been studying a much bigger picture. He works from the fundamental resource and environmental constraints, and Im convinced that hes got his assumptions right where others have them very wrong. He has followed through with unusual insight, drawing on 30 years of permaculture thinking, which I would say makes him the most important futurist in the world right now, said Adam Grubb founder of Energy Bulletin (www.energybulletin.net with over 400,000 visitors a month.)
These arent two dimensional nightmarish scenarios designed simply to scare people into
environmental action. They are compellingly fleshed out visions of quite plausible alternative futures which delve into energy, politics, agriculture, cultural and even spiritual trends. They help us reconcile our own competing fears and hopes for the future, and to consider the best strategies for adapting to a changing world, says Grubb.
Holmgren says we will need resilience and adaptability in the face of radical change.
Energy Descent Holmgren coined the term energy descent in 2005 as a less negatively loaded way than decline or collapse for describing a future defined by constantly diminishing energy production.
I chose the word descent because it implies a long and sustained process through which it is possible to survive and even thrive. While
energy descent does suggest the demise of globalised industrial civilisation, that process will play out over many decades, if not centuries. For individuals, households, organisations and communities focused on socially and ecologically adaptive design, energy descent is as much an opportunity as an obstacle. Realistic assessment of the larger forces at work in the world helps empower us to better refine our strategies.
About Permaculture Permaculture is an environmental design framework modelled on the patterns and relationships found in nature, yielding an abundance of food, fibre and energy for provision of local needs.
About David Holmgren Holmgren co-wrote the first permaculture text Permaculture
One in 1976 with Bill Mollison (published in 1978). With his 2002 book Permaculture: Principles and Pathways Beyond Sustainability David re-emerged from the relative shadows as the leading intellectual force of the permaculture movement. Rob Hopkins, founder of the popular Transition Towns initiatives in the UK, described Principles and Pathways as the most important book of the last 15 years.
David, his partner Su Dennett, and their son Oliver live at Melliodora a small permaculture demonstration property in central Victoria, Australia where they are self sufficient in fruit, vegetables and animal products and provide most of their own energy needs.
