Wilfred Dolfsma & Loet Leydesdorff, Lock-In and Break-Out from Technological Trajectories: Modeling and Policy Implications, Technological Forecasting and Social Change (2009, forthcoming);
<http://www.leydesdorff.net/breakout/index.htm> <pdf-version at http://www.leydesdorff.net/breakout/breakout.pdf> Abstract. Arthur provided a model to explain the circumstances that lead to technological lock-in into a specific trajectory. We contribute substantially to this area of research by investigating the circumstances under which technological development may break-out of a trajectory. We argue that for this to happen, a third selection mechanism--beyond those of the market and of technology--needs to upset the lock-in. We model the interaction, or mutual shaping among three selection mechanisms, and thus this paper also allows for a better understanding of when a technology will lock-in into a trajectory, when a technology may break-out of a lock-in, and when competing technologies may co-exist in a balance. As a system is conceptualized to gain a (third) degree of freedom, the possibility of bifurcation is introduced into the model. The equations, in which interactions between competition and selection mechanisms can be modeled, allow one to specify conditions for lock-in, competitive balance, and break-out. ________________________________ Loet Leydesdorff Amsterdam School of Communications Research (ASCoR) Kloveniersburgwal 48, 1012 CX Amsterdam. Tel. +31-20-525 6598; fax: +31-842239111 l...@leydesdorff.net; http://www.leydesdorff.net/ _______________________________________________ fis mailing list fis@listas.unizar.es https://webmail.unizar.es/cgi-bin/mailman/listinfo/fis
