Re: [FRIAM] models that bite back

I agree with Orlando that there is no need for a conflict here. The Bayesian paradigm provides a unified framework for decision making that integrates a subjective interpretation of the past record and views of the future. Further it is a paradigm that in a principled way modifies current beliefs

Re: [FRIAM] models that bite back

That's only in you model, and leaves out the rest of the world. My hunch is it's good to watch the rest of the world for diverging continuities too... Phil Henshaw   NY NY www.synapse9.com -Original Message- From: friam-boun...@redfish.com [mailto:friam-boun...@redfish.com] On

Re: [FRIAM] models that bite back

Phil Henshaw wrote: That's only in you model, and leaves out the rest of the world. My hunch is it's good to watch the rest of the world for diverging continuities too... Nothing prevents a person from explicitly representing and revising beliefs about the world in a model, especially in

Re: [FRIAM] Food for Complex Thought

Gary Schiltz wrote: Owen's comic strip on chaos made me think of a photo I took a few years back in Artesia, New Mexico, which I offer for your amusement. It's still there - must have reached an equilibrium. -- Ray Parks rcpa...@sandia.gov Consilient Heuristician

Re: [FRIAM] models that bite back

Well Marcus, isn't that is entirely the point, and why models are unreliable and need help? A model invariably represents only a person's belief's about the world. The physical subject being represented is both fabulously more complex than any belief system can be, and full of things that are

Re: [FRIAM] models that bite back

Phil Henshaw writes: A model invariably represents only a person's belief's about the world. Consider surveys of undecided voters where during a debate the surveyed turn their individual dials to indicate approval or disapproval. The physical subject being represented is both fabulously

Re: [FRIAM] models that bite back

Phil Henshaw wrote: And,... how does a poll, or a military analysis tell you what emotions are going through people's minds? Given a hunch or actual evidence that a class of emotions have relevance to an interesting mass behavior, a poll could be open-ended, where those polled would describe

[FRIAM] bye

There is much further to fall, and I think it's likely the Obama plan will aggravate the failure of the system and push it over the next edge. It will certainly not relieve it of strain and allow it to heal. The Obama plan is designed by the same theory that caused the collapse, and intended

[FRIAM] e-mail address

My e-mail address has been changed. The earthlink address is now a time- limited address. Please remove my name from that address: jrl...@earthlink.net FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at

Re: [FRIAM] Financial crisis [was bye(?)]

So let's talk about the financial state of the world for a while. It certainly is worth of a complex systems discussion list. Here's my basic analysis. For the past 2+ decades we have been engaged in a self-inflicted Ponzi scheme -- during more or less the same period in which Madoff was doing

Re: [FRIAM] Financial crisis [was bye(?)]

Russ - Well said. A friend of mine once asked the following question: If you were building a house, would you stop just because you ran out of "inches"? The analogy is that $$ are simply units of measurement for work or useful assets. Do you cease to do the (same) work or (use) the