Re: [FRIAM] Disenfranchised? Americans Elect?

2012-03-14 Thread glen
I'm still waiting for them to say something interesting. I'm watching some candidates. I won't commit to sending them my social security number and birth date until I have evidence that they're credible. FYI, I enjoy this website re: americans elect: http://irregulartimes.com/index.php/archive

Re: [FRIAM] Disenfranchised? Americans Elect?

2012-03-14 Thread Steve Smith
What is everyone (else's) current take on the Americans Elect at this point? I just took the time to (re)sign up and go through about 100 questions and then looked at the draft candidates and at the "questions" being put forth for debate by the candidates somewhere down the line. Overall I wa

Re: [FRIAM] Poll: Obama leads all GOP candidates in head-to-head contests

2012-03-14 Thread Joseph Spinden
Since politics seems to be rearing its ugly head here, I would like to recommend a book: Red State, Blue State, Rich State, Poor State, by Andrew Gelman. He is a well-respected statistician and political scientist at Columbia University. To quote from his web page: " Andrew has done research

Re: [FRIAM] Poll: Obama leads all GOP candidates in head-to-head contests

2012-03-14 Thread glen
Steve Smith wrote at 03/14/2012 12:34 PM: > I'm not sure "Statistics are Lies" is precisely accurate. I think > "Statistics are incomplete" and "Statistics are skewed" come closer but > *even* more to the point, I think, is "Statistics are used to lie". I can't resist. ;-) The noun "lie" is int

Re: [FRIAM] Poll: Obama leads all GOP candidates in head-to-head contests

2012-03-14 Thread Steve Smith
George Box gave us: "All models are wrong, some are useful" and he was speaking specifically of *statistical models*... I think the rest of us apply it a bit more widely, and I don't think that is inappropriate. A corollary to this might be, "all statistics are wrong, some are useful"? I'm n

Re: [FRIAM] Poll: Obama leads all GOP candidates in head-to-head contests

2012-03-14 Thread Owen Densmore
Very nice aggregation .. and interesting. Agreed bias does show through. I looks like a potentially very close general election. Especially if the former article is right: once a republican candidate is chosen, the gap closes. This sounds like a reasonable hypothesis. -- Owen On Wed, Mar 1

Re: [FRIAM] Poll: Obama leads all GOP candidates in head-to-head contests

2012-03-14 Thread glen
Personally, I find polls confusing. I like this page: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/president_obama_vs_republican_candidates.html that projects multiple polls down to a simpler space. Best I can tell, the error for the ABC/WaPo poll is is 4 points, the Pew poll is 3 po

[FRIAM] Poll: Obama leads all GOP candidates in head-to-head contests

2012-03-14 Thread Owen Densmore
This: http://news.yahoo.com/blogs/ticket/poll-obama-leads-gop-candidates-head-head-contests-151032764.html is an interesting Pew poll on the whole election scene, Republican primary as well as an Obama second term. I'm a bit surprised about the Health Care tie, although is makes sense if one comp

Re: [FRIAM] detailed careful fair critique of most cases of purported impact causes of extinctions, Grzegorz Racki, Silesian U., Poland, 64 p: Rich Murray 2012.03.13

2012-03-14 Thread Owen Densmore
God this is cool stuff: - Impact phenomena: direct hits, glancing interactions, comet vs meteor - Geology: Detective stories of the earth's surface, including new and improved core sampling and "nano-diamonds" - Anthropology: Sampling our own history and folk/religious tales for impact events stori