Re: [FRIAM] numbers

I invite those who think 87507 to be "poor" to take a Sunday drive through Tierra Contenta or south of the airport/west of 599. Say, out by the polo field. On Mon, Nov 2, 2020 at 12:27 PM wrote: > Thanks, Glen, I think the relevant data line was POP100, although I don't > know why "100".

Re: [FRIAM] Public Health Gating Criteria for Reopening New Mexico | NMDOH - CV Modeling

Doh! https://rt.live/us/NM > I don't know the answer to your question, but here is some time-series > estimates for Ro in NM.    We have been above 1.0 for over 2 months. > >> https://cvmodeling.nmhealth.org/public-health-gating-criteria-for-reopening-nm/ >>

Re: [FRIAM] Public Health Gating Criteria for Reopening New Mexico | NMDOH - CV Modeling

I don't know the answer to your question, but here is some time-series estimates for Ro in NM.    We have been above 1.0 for over 2 months. > https://cvmodeling.nmhealth.org/public-health-gating-criteria-for-reopening-nm/ >

[FRIAM] Public Health Gating Criteria for Reopening New Mexico | NMDOH - CV Modeling

https://cvmodeling.nmhealth.org/public-health-gating-criteria-for-reopening- nm/ Can anybody explain how it could be that the reproductive rate of the virus in NM has fallen to 1.07 from 1.29 in the last two weeks, as the daily case rate has almost doubled and the positive test rate is just

Re: [FRIAM] Emergence and Downward Causation

Eric has this weird faith that we can separate words from ideas. I hope he right, but I am not so sure. Nicholas Thompson Emeritus Professor of Ethology and Psychology Clark University thompnicks...@gmail.com

Re: [FRIAM] Emergence and Downward Causation

Jochen, At a first pass I don't think I disagree with any of that. But I also don't think it would count as 'downward causation'. I write a note on a board. The next day, seeing the note on the board causes me to take a pill (is part of a causal chain leading to the pill taking). That's just

Re: [FRIAM] numbers

It’s an interesting question what summary statistic would be informative across the several dimensions of context in demography. Total numbers are not by themselves, but neither are fractions. Here’s my candidate, though it would require a parametric model of some sort: Complementary

Re: [FRIAM] election eve

Any party that participates in efforts to invalidate ligitimate voters or ballots does not deserve to have candidates in office. In every case that I am aware of in this election courts have decided in favor of the voters or ballots that are the subjects of these kinds of efforts. Trump et al

Re: [FRIAM] election eve

https://www.startribune.com/more-than-1-7m-absentee-ballots-returned-in-minnesota-as-feds-announce-election-monitors/572949792/ Barr is sending the DOJ to help with the election. -- rec -- On Mon, Nov 2, 2020 at 3:33 PM wrote: > I dunno. What Is happening in MN. > >

[FRIAM] ad hominem as critical thinking

I'd like to draw attention to these two posts: When Critical Evaluation Goes Too Far https://www.downes.ca/post/71554 Herd Immunity -- Facts and Numbers https://youtu.be/NENhBmN_tps?t=763 The first (implicitly) makes the point that there are degrees and layers of critical thinking. And

Re: [FRIAM] election eve

I dunno. What Is happening in MN. https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/minnesota/ Nicholas Thompson Emeritus Professor of Ethology and Psychology Clark University thompnicks...@gmail.com https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/ -Original Message- From: Friam

Re: [FRIAM] numbers

Oh, Gawd. I better put my proton shields up. Glen is grumpy. n Nicholas Thompson Emeritus Professor of Ethology and Psychology Clark University thompnicks...@gmail.com https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/ -Original Message- From: Friam On Behalf Of u?l? ??? Sent: Monday,

Re: [FRIAM] numbers

And to make matters worse, we won't be able to trust the Census 2020 data *either* because they're cutting it off early: https://www.nytimes.com/2020/10/13/us/supreme-court-census.html All models are always wrong. Applying the population divisor, which is a wrong model, over the top of your

Re: [FRIAM] numbers

Nick, et al. - Here's what I sent to a friend at the New Mexican in August: *Henry:* *I know, I know. I'm a bit of a crank, but...* *The online edition of the New Mexican has many data graphics that help readers put the virus in context: https://www.santafenewmexican.com/news/virus/

Re: [FRIAM] numbers

Nick: I would suggest that the 2010 population data is pretty thin for analysis. Off the top of my head, our 87505 ZIP has about 25k people as of 2019. ZIP 87507 has about 50k. Hence the crying need for an appropriate denominator when looking at cases by ZIP. Tom Tom

Re: [FRIAM] numbers

Thanks, Glen, I think the relevant data line was POP100, although I don't know why "100". In a sane world, that would be the population in hundreds, but that would give our zip code a population of 4.5 million, which seems a bit heavy. In any case, for those of you following case

Re: [FRIAM] numbers

Sure. That's relatively easy: https://www.mapbusinessonline.com/Solution.aspx/DemographicMapping?msclkid=330ecefd29021db98663915d73f04876_source=bing_medium=cpc_campaign=Campaign+%231_term=demographic+data+by+zip+code_content=Demographic+maps=cd0e5586-e53d-4b1c-b9c2-8bb55a87109a

Re: [FRIAM] election eve

What's happening in Minnesota? https://electoral-vote.com/evp2020/Pres/Graphs/minnesota.html https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/minnesota/ https://electionprojection.com/minnesota-presidential-election.php

Re: [FRIAM] numbers

And if you don't want to download a huge file, you can use the census web app: E.g. for my zip code (98502):

Re: [FRIAM] numbers

One of the first search hits is https://www.kaggle.com/census/us-population-by-zip-code —Barry On 2 Nov 2020, at 11:59, thompnicks...@gmail.com wrote: Is it possible to get population by zipcode? It seems like it’s proprietary info. How’s that for government transparency! N

Re: [FRIAM] ideological convergence, fringe fluidity, and the salad bar

I must not have any idea what you mean by zealotry and True Believer psychology if you don't see it in the right wing groups. The 3 percenters, oath keepers, and sovereign citizen groups sure look like zealots and TBers to me. Can you describe the concepts (zealotry and TBP) in a way that shows

Re: [FRIAM] numbers

Is it possible to get population by zipcode? It seems like it’s proprietary info. How’s that for government transparency! N Nicholas Thompson Emeritus Professor of Ethology and Psychology Clark University thompnicks...@gmail.com

Re: [FRIAM] numbers

For me, neither is scary. It contributes to my personal policy of avoiding densely populated areas. On Mon, Nov 2, 2020 at 11:01 AM Prof David West wrote: > Which is scarier? > > -- 41 out of 50 states show an increase in COVID cases. > -- 105 out of 3,141 counties show an increase in COVID

Re: [FRIAM] ideological convergence, fringe fluidity, and the salad bar

This is somewhat orthogonal to Glen's question, but might be used as context for thinking about it. About six years ago, I spent the summer playing anthropologist among 'militias'. 'posses', and 'separatist' ultra-far right groups in Eastern Oregon and Idaho. I did not have the time or funds

Re: [FRIAM] election eve

I'm cautiously optimistic that Biden will win early.Dave could be right, in which case, yeah, who cares what happens. The most exciting thing that could happen would be that Biden takes Texas. -Original Message- From: Friam On Behalf Of Prof David West Sent: Monday, November 2, 2020

Re: [FRIAM] numbers

The other thing that has me tearing out my hair (really a serious problem at this point) is the maps where they shade the state or county by the cases or deaths relative to the population. The rates are correct, but a high rate in Elko County, Nevada hits you eye but the same rate in King

[FRIAM] election eve

Frank put his prediction on the list, so I guess it is OK to add mine. Last time I was 100% certain of my predictions. This time between 60-75 percent certain. Trump will win by roughly the same electoral college numbers as last time, with minor changes, e.g. swapping Wisconsin for Minnesota.

Re: [FRIAM] What's in a name? MOTH to a Flame

When I interviewed at Microsoft, one of my interviewers was Charles Simonyi, the originator of what is called “Hungarian”. It is a small set of rules and a bunch of prefixes used to encode type information in variable and function names. For example, ‘lpszName’ is the name of a long pointer to

Re: [FRIAM] numbers

Agreed, Tom. Also, what does "increase" mean? George Duncan Emeritus Professor of Statistics, Carnegie Mellon University georgeduncanart.com See posts on Facebook, Twitter, and Instagram Land: (505) 983-6895 Mobile: (505) 469-4671 My art theme: Dynamic exposition of the tension between matrix

Re: [FRIAM] high turnout and tight races?

Excellent! As we're seeing with the re-politicization of the SCOTUS, more decisions are made in smoky back rooms than I'd been reared to believe. These Legal Eagle episodes are helpful: Problems with the Electoral College ft. Extra Credits https://youtu.be/KYVw9lPiCHQ On 11/2/20 8:05 AM,

Re: [FRIAM] numbers

Dollars should have a positive superlinear relationship to population density because the risk of transmission is higher in more densely populated regions. -Original Message- From: Friam On Behalf Of Prof David West Sent: Monday, November 2, 2020 8:01 AM To: friam@redfish.com Subject:

Re: [FRIAM] numbers

Both numbers may be accurate but not particularly helpful bcs they lack context. One would have to start with, at least, a ratio of cases to some level of population, per 10,000 or 100,000,etc. It drives me nuts that the state's health department or somebody publishes daily cases by ZIP without

Re: [FRIAM] high turnout and tight races?

I think I have a counterexample, if such things exist when discussing probability. The US presidential election with the highest turnout (81.8%, as a percentage of the voting age population) was the Tiden-Hayes election of 1876. It is also the smallest electoral vote victory (185-184). The

[FRIAM] numbers

Which is scarier? -- 41 out of 50 states show an increase in COVID cases. -- 105 out of 3,141 counties show an increase in COVID cases. Which is more accurate? Which number should guide policy? davew - . -..-. . -. -.. -..-. .. ... -..-. . .-. . FRIAM Applied Complexity Group

[FRIAM] ideological convergence, fringe fluidity, and the salad bar

The Terrorist Threat from the Fractured Far Right https://www.lawfareblog.com/terrorist-threat-fractured-far-right The "Salad Bar" or what I typically call "cafeteria style" stochastically accumulated naturfacts has been a hallmark of the fringy people I end up talking to. It's rarely, but