Re: [FRIAM] description - explanation - metaphor - model
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/y4bkJTtG3s5d6v36k/stupidity-and-dishonesty-explain-each-other-away I can't help but hope there are other causes for being wrong. 8^) For example, in a Kierkegaardian "throw down with your best guess" sense, e.g. the champions like Krugman, when their simplifications are shown to be wrong, I couldn't call them either dishonest or stupid. I'm OK with calling them "premature", but that's not really denigrating in the same way. As I tried to say before, a premature advocacy may be necessary to disambiguating the problem ... which is necessary for good problem solving. This is why I like the adjective "authentic". Even if some yahoo is completely wrong about some concept, treating them as if they're authentic presents constructive paths to various solutions. On December 26, 2019 1:11:30 PM PST, "uǝlƃ ☣" wrote: >These champions can be viewed as sacrificing themselves for the greater >good. They adopt a position and advocate it in spite of their own inner >homunculus shouting at them that they should be more reasonable ... >take criticism as constructive and respond in metered and polite >language, stick to the facts, be willing to change one's mind. But by >making these (purposeful) discretizations, they are simplifying the >domain and, thereby, making potential 80/20 solutions *feasible*. -- glen FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College to unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com archives back to 2003: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/ FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ by Dr. Strangelove
Re: [FRIAM] Celeste Kidd - How to Know
Marcus - I do like the idea that a good "comedy team" might effectively de-weaponize deep-fakes... like The Yes Men or SNL perhaps... there is the risk that such "normalizes" deep fakes, but to the extent that it is already on it's way... comedy-ifying may be the best (least-worst) alternative? After Trump's ascendancy showed it's worst true-colors I had any number of "comedy-centric" ideations to generate a crowd-sourced reaction. The first (dark) one was called "take a Dump for Trump" and involved variations on the old teenager's bad joke of placing a burning bag of dogshit on a rival's porch to be "stomped out". The second was more campy and involved collecting donations to be put into a fund to pay out "bounties" on pie-throwers. Think of an Iraq-War style pack of cards with faces/names/bounties on Trump and his inner-mid-outer circles. Maybe starting with a $1 bounty for anyone who has shaken hands with him, spiraling in toward those working/living in the White House... It would surely play havoc for the Secret Service but more entertaining I can just imagine the distortion of security at Mara Lago for him and his. Would his aides who got booed out of restaurants a few years back instead have gotten a pie in the face (and a bounty big enough to fund future operations paid to the pie-thrower?). Imagine all the pies being confiscated at the entry to one of his rallys? With a $1 bounty on any rally attender, you might see a very different style and texture of counter-protest. While there would surely be civil and legal consequences... there *would* also be a comic-relief and perhaps de-escalation of self-seriousness consequence as well. I wonder if anyone has a (meta?) model of this kind of "changing the game"? - Steve > Steve writes: > > < I don't know how deeply technical the presumed election-manipulation > of 2016 (now 2020) is, but it *does* seem like the work you reference > here implies that with the information venues/vectors like streaming > video (TV, Movies, Clips, attendant advertising) and social media > (FB/Insta/Twit...) the understanding and tools are already in place to > significantly manipulate public opinion. Based on my anecdotal > experience about people's *certainty*, this article is very > on-point. And this doesn't even reference the technology of "deep > fakes". > > > What would be some fun deep fakes? He’s decided the wall was all a > big mistake and that now families in the south will be required to > give up their living room floor and extra bedrooms for families that > cross the border? The especially vulnerable, like gender-conflicted > teens are at the front of the line. Once a week will be (mandatory) > take your visitor to work day, where you train them to do your job. > Another good one might be the announcement of a white people tax, > which will pay reparations to native Americans and black people. > There’s a long list of fun taxes to announce, like 5 dollars per > gallon for gasoline for each mpg less than 25mpg. Oh, and how about > tax incentives for mixed race couples in order to diversify the gene > pool. Concurrent with this, all other dependent tax deductions will > be eliminated. In fact, because of global warming, all children of > non-mixed races couples will be subject to a $20,000 a year tax. > Churches will no longer be tax exempt. > > Marcus > > > > FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv > Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College > to unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com > archives back to 2003: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/ > FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ by Dr. Strangelove FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College to unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com archives back to 2003: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/ FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ by Dr. Strangelove
Re: [FRIAM] Celeste Kidd - How to Know
Steve writes: < I don't know how deeply technical the presumed election-manipulation of 2016 (now 2020) is, but it *does* seem like the work you reference here implies that with the information venues/vectors like streaming video (TV, Movies, Clips, attendant advertising) and social media (FB/Insta/Twit...) the understanding and tools are already in place to significantly manipulate public opinion. Based on my anecdotal experience about people's *certainty*, this article is very on-point. And this doesn't even reference the technology of "deep fakes". > What would be some fun deep fakes? He’s decided the wall was all a big mistake and that now families in the south will be required to give up their living room floor and extra bedrooms for families that cross the border? The especially vulnerable, like gender-conflicted teens are at the front of the line.Once a week will be (mandatory) take your visitor to work day, where you train them to do your job. Another good one might be the announcement of a white people tax, which will pay reparations to native Americans and black people. There’s a long list of fun taxes to announce, like 5 dollars per gallon for gasoline for each mpg less than 25mpg.Oh, and how about tax incentives for mixed race couples in order to diversify the gene pool. Concurrent with this, all other dependent tax deductions will be eliminated. In fact, because of global warming, all children of non-mixed races couples will be subject to a $20,000 a year tax. Churches will no longer be tax exempt. Marcus FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College to unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com archives back to 2003: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/ FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ by Dr. Strangelove
Re: [FRIAM] Celeste Kidd - How to Know
REC - Good find! I am not closely following the development and results of GAN work, but it seems like this kind of study explicates at least ONE GOOD REASON for worrying about AI changing the nature of the world as we know it (even if it isn't a precise existential threat). Convolved with Carl's offering around "weaponizing complexity", it feels more and more believable (recursion unintended) that the wielders of strong AI/ML will have the upper hand in any tactical and possibly strategic domain (warfare, public opinion, markets, etc.). I don't know how deeply technical the presumed election-manipulation of 2016 (now 2020) is, but it *does* seem like the work you reference here implies that with the information venues/vectors like streaming video (TV, Movies, Clips, attendant advertising) and social media (FB/Insta/Twit...) the understanding and tools are already in place to significantly manipulate public opinion. Based on my anecdotal experience about people's *certainty*, this article is very on-point. And this doesn't even reference the technology of "deep fakes". - Steve On 12/27/19 8:21 PM, Roger Critchlow wrote: > This talk was mentioned on hacker news this week and inspired my > babbling at Saveur this > morning. https://slideslive.com/38921495/how-to-know. The talk was > delivered at Neural IPS on December 9 and discusses recent research on > how people come to believe they know something. > > This > paper https://www.mitpressjournals.org/doi/full/10.1162/opmi_a_00017 describes > the Amazon Mechanical Turk experiment on people becoming certain they > understood the boolean rule they were being taught by examples. > > -- rec -- > > > > FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv > Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College > to unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com > archives back to 2003: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/ > FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ by Dr. Strangelove FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College to unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com archives back to 2003: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/ FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ by Dr. Strangelove
Re: [FRIAM] Inflicting complexity
Carl: Ah, how I appreciate young minds who can call up articles from two years ago. I wonder if there might be something in the STO's MOSAIC concept that could be used to defend against attacks on all levels of our voting system(s) and even attack the attackers? Such would require time and money -- and might be impossible given our lack of voting process standards. But something must be done to maintain, or regain, trust in participatory democracy. TJ On Sat, Dec 28, 2019, 4:40 AM Carl Tollander wrote: > After looking at Tom's ref on FB about teaching Military thinking to 2020 > election security infrastructure in democracies ( > https://apnews.com/222bd1402c96bc487f5a0a2dc5bff12c?fbclid=IwAR2PSR8UxoSlEoulaar8ITN1vRNRChd34VVgcU6WMNM4vOwnaEmr0eFOsQw > ) > > I recalled an STO (Strategic Technology Office) article on MOSAIC from a > couple years back. > https://www.darpa.mil/news-events/2017-08-04 > > There's a bunch of stuff about weaponizing complexity, and whether one > approves or not, it is worth knowing about. > > *“If we’re successful,” Burns said, “mosaic warfighting and resulting > effects webs will give us the ability to inflict vast levels of complexity > on an adversary to deter and counter aggression.”* > > "Inflicting Complexity..." . Always suspected, but ..h. > > Carl > > > FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv > Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College > to unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com > archives back to 2003: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/ > FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ by Dr. Strangelove > FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College to unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com archives back to 2003: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/ FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ by Dr. Strangelove
