This E-Mail to Scott contains a number of cites and mentions
of actual research. I thought it would be of interest to
others - particularly as putting it together takes some
work. None of this will be discussed at Bali where no doubt
a world underwater will be mentioned a time or two
particularly if Gore is present.
Harry
Scott,
The research that interests me is Johannessen's
comprehensive measurement of ice thickness increase in
Greenland (2005).
If my memory serves they measured 45 million separate points
- or at least the satellites did. I should say that in the
full paper Johannessen is somewhat critical of earlier
research which is somewhat spotty and mostly dealt with the
coastal area where Johannessen found a thinning. He didn't
say what I suspect. That, the GW scientists are anxious to
'rush to judgment' so their results can be published in the
GW press. A description and his measurements are at the end
of this post.
Then there are the findings of Shepherd and Wingham (2007).
The scientists studied 14 pieces of research into the water
run-off from both Greenland and Antarctica. Their best
estimate of the contribution of both Greenland and
Antarctica to sea level rise over the next century is less
than 1.5 - actually 1.38 to be added to the 3 mm per year
that may be the result of expanding volume from warmer
temperatures. This is somewhat less than Gore's if
statements of about 23ft.
HYPERLINK
http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/content/abstract/315/5818/152
9http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/content/abstract/315/5818/15
29
You'll note that they accept that Antarctica and Greenland
are each losing mass overall but say its apparently a
small amount. Of course, this runs counter to Johannessen
(and Zwally) who see an ice-sheet mass increase in
Greenland.
On the other hand, if it's one thing of which we are sure
it's that GW is diminishing glaciers. Yet, again we have to
be careful.
Yde, et al (2006) found that Greenland's glaciers have
been shrinking for the past century, suggesting that the ice
melt is not a recent phenomenon caused by global warming.
(Later, he suggested the recent acceleration was linked to
increased man-made CO2, yet how he makes this connection is
difficult to discover. As in most such links, perhaps
scientists repeat what everybody knows.)
This shrinking caused by natural warming apparently began
around the 1880's after the Little Ice Age had run its
course and before the large increase in atmospheric CO2.
For the really long term trend, we go to Hormes et al.
(2006) working in the Alps who determined that the glaciers
investigated were less extensive than during the 1990s, with
a shorter length during several defined periods.
These periods were: 10,110-9550, 9210-7980, 7450-6500,
6370-5950, 5860-3360, 2940-2620 and 2500-1170 years before
present. So the glaciers apparently diminish, then grow,
then diminish again.
Incidentally, Hormes' thrust is linking global climate
change to solar activity variations. You'll note that
Johannessen linked winter elevation changes in Greenland to
the North Atlantic Oscillation.
(My golly! Could natural events other than CO2 increase have
some connection to Global Warming!)
Finally, perhaps a real problem - the often large changes in
climate change effect that happen briefly giving a false
trend. It is a common remark from scientists that the time
spans are two short to distinguish a trend.
Howat, et al, in Science (March 2007) using
satellite-derived surface elevation and velocity data, found
major short-term variations in recent ice discharge and mass
loss at two of Greenland's largest outlet glaciers. Their
combined rate of mass loss doubled in less than a year in
2004 and then decreased in 2006 to near the previous rates.
So to prove that Global Warming is sizzling use 2004 -
remain silent about 2006. To prove GW is false, concentrate
on 2006. To prove the Greenland ice sheet is melting
measure below 1,500 meters near the coasts. To prove the
ice sheet is thickening measure above 1,500 meters.
And so it goes.
Harry
..
...
This is a description of Johannessens findings a massive
increase in the Greenland ice-sheet, rather than what
everyone knows.
..
..
Originally published in Science Express on 20 October 2005 -
Science 11 November 2005: Vol. 310. no. 5750, pp. 1013
-1016 DOI:
Ice-Sheet Growth in the Interior of Greenland
Ola M. Johannessen,1,2* Kirill Khvorostovsky,3 Martin W.
Miles,4,5 Leonid P. Bobylev3
A continuous data set of Greenland Ice Sheet altimeter
height from European Remote Sensing satellites (ERS-1 and
ERS-2), 1992 to 2003, has been analyzed.
An increase of 6.4 ± 0.2 centimeters per year (cm/year) is
found in the vast interior areas above 1500
