Re: [geo] Economic impacts from thawing permafrost

2015-09-24 Thread Paul E. Belanger
Although I'm been on the list a long time and mostly lurking and not even having the time to read/follow all I thought I'd pipe in here. Warren Hamilton - of plate tectonic fame - who's anti-plume/hot spot and anti-fixed subduction zone said today "...Nature 'almost publish anything'" - OK

Re: [geo] Economic impacts from thawing permafrost

2015-09-24 Thread Mike MacCracken
Dear Paul‹I would make one comment about a difference in the situation between the present and the Eemian that might make a difference. For the Eemian, the warming influence was an increase in summertime solar radiation, which would indeed warm the summer season and surface melting of glaciers and

Re: [geo] Economic impacts from thawing permafrost

2015-09-24 Thread Fred Zimmerman
$43T in damages seems like a lot to me, especially if spread over a century or the period 2015-2100. Global GDP is about $78T. I don't have access to the article, so can't comment in detail, but if I did I would be trying to figure out what they imply is $T/degC/year. While a cost of a few

Re: [geo] Economic impacts from thawing permafrost

2015-09-24 Thread Andrew Lockley
The paleocene-eocene thermal maximum is a better analogue, due to speed of transition. It's still ~1000x slower than current climate change. Speed is crucial, due to short atmospheric life of methane A On 24 Sep 2015 17:59, "Paul E. Belanger" wrote: > very good point

[geo] Economic impacts from thawing permafrost

2015-09-23 Thread Greg Rau
http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/nclimate2807.html "The Arctic is warming roughly twice as fast as the global average1. If greenhouse gas emissions continue to increase at current rates, this warming will lead to the widespread thawing of permafrost and the release of