[geo] New paper on Antarctic impacts of SAI

[Douglas MacMartin]

Press release:

https://news.iu.edu/live/news/32667-climate-engineering-could-slow-antarctic-ice-loss



Paper:

https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2023JD039434



Short summary… the effects of SAI on risks associated with Antarctic depend
on how much cooling you do (duh…) and on the latitude(s) of injection, with
SH injection helping and NH injection potentially making things worse.


Abstract:

Owing to increasing greenhouse gas emissions, the Antarctic Ice Sheet is
vulnerable to rapid ice loss in the upcoming decades and centuries. This
study examines the effectiveness of using stratospheric aerosol injection
(SAI) that minimizes global mean temperature (GMT) change to slow projected
21st century Antarctic ice loss. We simulate 11 different SAI cases which
vary by the latitudinal location(s) and the amount(s) of the injection(s)
to examine the climatic response near Antarctica in each case as compared
to the reference climate at the turn of the last century. We demonstrate
that injecting at a single latitude in the northern hemisphere or at the
Equator increases Antarctic shelf ocean temperatures pertinent to ice shelf
basal melt, while injecting only in the southern hemisphere minimizes this
temperature change. We use these results to analyze the results of more
complex multi-latitude injection strategies that maintain GMT at or below
1.5°C above the pre-industrial. All these multi-latitude cases will slow
Antarctic ice loss relative to the mid-to-late 21st century SSP2-4.5
emissions pathway. Yet, to avoid a GMT threshold estimated by previous
studies pertaining to rapid West Antarctic ice loss (1.5°C above the
pre-industrial GMT, though large uncertainty), our study suggests SAI would
need to cool about 1.0°C below this threshold and predominately inject at
low southern hemisphere latitudes (∼15°S - 30°S). These results highlight
the complexity of factors impacting the Antarctic response to SAI and the
critical role of the injection strategy in preventing future ice loss.



Douglas MacMartin

Associate Professor, Mechanical and Aerospace Engineering, and

Faculty Fellow, Atkinson Center for a Sustainable Future

Cornell University

(650) 619-9341

macmar...@cornell.edu

https://climate-engineering.mae.cornell.edu/

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[geo] Exposure to climate change information predicts public support for solar geoengineering in Singapore and the United States

[Geoengineering News]

*This item and others will be in the monthly “Solar Geoengineering Updates
Substack” newsletter:* https://solargeoengineeringupdates.substack.com/
-

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-023-46952-w

*Authors*

   - Sonny Rosenthal
   

   ,
   - Peter J. Irvine
   

   ,
   - Christopher L. Cummings
   

&
   - Shirley S. Ho
   


*14 November 2023*

*Citations*: Rosenthal, S., Irvine, P.J., Cummings, C.L. *et al.* Exposure
to climate change information predicts public support for solar
geoengineering in Singapore and the United States. *Sci Rep* 13, 19874
(2023). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-023-46952-w
Abstract

Solar geoengineering is a controversial climate policy measure that could
lower global temperature by increasing the amount of light reflected by the
Earth. As scientists and policymakers increasingly consider this idea, an
understanding of the level and drivers of public support for its research
and potential deployment will be key. This study focuses on the role of
climate change information in public support for research and deployment of
stratospheric aerosol injection (SAI) in Singapore (*n* = 503) and the
United States (*n* = 505). Findings were consistent with the idea that
exposure to information underlies support for research and deployment. That
finding was stronger in the United States, where climate change is a more
contentious issue, than in Singapore. Cost concern was negatively related
to support for funding and perceived risk was negatively related to support
for deployment. Perceived government efficacy was a more positive predictor
of support for funding in Singapore than in the United States.
Additionally, relatively low support for local deployment was consistent
with a NIMBY mindset. This was the first study to quantify the role of
climate change information in SAI policy support, which has practical
implications for using the media and interpersonal channels to communicate
about SAI policy measures.
[image: figure 1]


Mediation model of support for SAI. Corresponding with our statistical
model (see Methods), the solid rectangle reflects an observed variable and
ovals represent latent variables.

*Source: Nature*

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