I need help in understanding to what extent, if any, this reported large increase in anthropogenic aerosol emissions would/could possibly have on stratospheric water vapor during that same time frame.
Solomon et al. http://www.climate.unibe.ch/~plattner/papers/solomon10sci.pdfreports a marked reduction in the increase rate in stratospheric water vapor during the same time frame Kaufmann is reporting significant emission increases in China. Solomon does not specifically look at this type of regional (phenomenal) input. Is it possible that the observed plateau which Kaufmann observed is significantly linked to the plateau which Solomon observed? I have not been able to find a free copy of the Kaufmann paper and thus I'm flying blind here. Was the Solomon observation mentioned? To bend this question 180 degrees from tropospheric upwards direction to the stratospheric downwards direction. Heckendorn et al. http://iopscience.iop.org/1748-9326/4/4/045108/pdf/1748-9326_4_4_045108.pdfstates concerning stratospheric sulfide injection; "the sedimenting particles heat the tropical cold point tropopause and, hence, the stratospheric entry mixing ratio of H2O increases". Yet, Stier et al. http://www.atm.ox.ac.uk/group/cp/Publications/Pdfs/stier_etal_JGR2006.pdfsuggests; "hydrophilic aerosols, such as sulfate, potentially affect atmospheric absorption in opposing ways: first, decreasing absorption through aging initially hydrophobic black carbon (BC) to a hydrophilic state, enhancing its removal by wet scavenging, and consequently decreasing BC lifetime and abundance, and second, increasing absorption through enhancement of the BC absorption efficiency by internal mixing as well as through increasing the amount of diffuse solar radiation in the atmosphere.". I read this as saying that the sulfates can increase removal rates of tropospheric water vapor concentrations through increasing BC wet scavenging rates.". If Steir et al. were to be given the heaviest weight. Then, sulfate SRM may increase tropopause temperatures, but the reduction of the tropospheric water vapor concentration through increasing the aging rates of BC and thus wet scavenging would seem to make Heckendorn's concerns over increased stratospheric water vapor null. *Are we seeing this in the....for the lack of a better term... "China Affect"? * My primer on this overall subject is "Heterogeneous and multiphase chemistry in the troposphere - a short overview. By Maria Berghof" http://www.cast.lu.se/presentations/Maria_Berghof_AqCh_2010-02-11.pdf Help in understanding any possible links between the 2 (Kufmann/Solomon) anomalies would be welcomed. My hypothesis is that; While the significant increase in aerosol emissions in China created a measurable global warming plateau, it may have also significantly reduced stratospheric water vapor concentrations by increasing tropospheric nucleation/water vapor absorption rates on a large regional scale ie. China. If this is correct, a 2 fold hazard in a marked curtailment of sulfate/BC emissions may be expected. Also, Stratospheric SRM may actually help maintain a lower than normally expected stratospheric water vapor concentration and thus provide a secondary, yet powerful, global warming mitigation means. Have I correctly connected the dots? If so, does this represent a need for a preemptive Stratospheric SRM effort before large scale emission curtailment? Michael <http://www.cast.lu.se/presentations/Maria_Berghof_AqCh_2010-02-11.pdf> On Tue, Jul 5, 2011 at 11:19 AM, Dan Whaley <dan.wha...@gmail.com> wrote: > > http://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/sulfur-pollution-cites-as-cause-of-climate-change-pause-warming-now-seems-to-be-resuming/2011/07/04/gHQAFkAWxH_story.html > > Study says sulfur from China’s coal-burning caused slight pause in > global warming > > By Associated Press, Published: July 4 > WASHINGTON — Scientists have come up with a possible explanation for > why the rise in Earth’s temperature paused for a bit during the 2000s, > one of the hottest decades on record. > > The answer seems counterintuitive. It’s all that sulfur pollution in > the air from China’s massive coal-burning, according to a new study. > > Sulfur particles in the air deflect the sun’s rays and can temporarily > cool things down a bit. That can happen even as coal-burning produces > the carbon dioxide that contributes to global warming. > > “People normally just focus on the warming effect of CO2 (carbon > dioxide), but during the Chinese economic expansion there was a huge > increase in sulfur emissions,” which have a cooling effect, explained > Robert K. Kaufmann of Boston University. He’s the lead author of the > study published Monday in Proceedings of the National Academy of > Science. > > But sulfur’s cooling effect is only temporary, while the carbon > dioxide from coal burning stays in Earth’s atmosphere a long time. > > Chinese coal consumption doubled between 2003 and 2007, and that > caused a 26 percent increase in global coal consumption, Kaufmann > said. > > Now, Chinese leaders have recognized the effects of that pollution on > their environment and their citizens’ health and are installing > equipment to scrub out the sulfur particles, Kaufmann said. > > Sulfur quickly drops out of the air if it is not replenished, while > carbon dioxide remains for a long time, so its warming effects are > beginning to be visible again, he noted. The plateau in temperature > growth disappeared in 2009 and 2010, when temperatures lurched upward. > > Indeed, NASA and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, > have listed 2010 as tied for the warmest year on record, while the > Hadley Center of the British Meteorological Office lists it as second > warmest, after 1998. > > Sulfur’s ability to cool things down has led some to suggest using it > in a geoengineering feat to cool the planet. The idea is that > injecting sulfur compounds very high into the atmosphere might help > ease global warming by increasing clouds and haze that would reflect > sunlight. Some research has concluded that’s a bad idea. > > Using enough sulfur to reduce warming would wipe out the protective > Arctic ozone layer and delay recovery of the Antarctic ozone hole by > as much as 70 years, according to an analysis by Simone Tilmes of the > National Center for Atmospheric Research in Boulder, Colo. This is the > ozone layer that is high above Earth and protects against harmful UV > rays, not the ground level ozone that is a harmful pollutant. > > “While climate change is a major threat, more research is required > before society attempts global geoengineering solutions,” said Tilmes. > > Overall, global temperatures have been increasing for more than a > century since the industrial revolution began adding gases like carbon > dioxide to the air. But there have been similar plateaus, such as > during the post-World War II era when industrial production boosted > sulfur emissions in several parts of the world, Kaufmann explained. > > Atmospheric scientists and environmentalists are concerned that > continued rising temperatures could have serious impacts worldwide, > ranging from drought in some areas, changes in storm patterns, spread > of tropical diseases and rising sea levels > > ___ > > Online: http://www.pnas.org > > Copyright 2011 The Associated Press. All rights reserved. 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