Hi All
I agree with Jessica about East and West. Spray vessels can go very
fast in the non-spray mode and could move around the UK or Japan quickly
enough to be useful. Going across the Pacific or from Atlantic to
Pacific would take much long but we could have fleets in both ocean
areas and send them emails to stop operation when we did not need them.
It would be like having a navy which took things easy in peacetime.
A possible experiment might be to backtrack the movement of the water
vapour which caused the floods in Japan along the path of the wind, back
to where it evaporated. We could then change temperatures in the
evaporation areas and then run the model forwards to see what would have
happened if we had done some cooling.
Does anyone have a computer climate model with rewind capability?
Stephen
On 10-Jul-18 2:36 PM, Jessica Gurevitch wrote:
Prediction would be wonderful, but it's not the only valuable thing to
gain from this insight/hypothesis. And aren't the east sides of
continents (i.e. Japan) going to behave differently than the west
sides of continents (i.e. UK)?
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Jessica Gurevitch
Professor
Department of Ecology and Evolution
Stony Brook University
Stony Brook, NY 11794-5245 USA
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
On Tue, Jul 10, 2018 at 9:10 AM, Chris Burgoyne <c...@eng.cam.ac.uk
<mailto:c...@eng.cam.ac.uk>> wrote:
Stephen
I am curious how we turn hindsight into foresight.
It is one thing to be able to say "there is a terrible storm over
Japan" and "the water around Japan has been warm" as implying that
there is a causal link from one to the other.
I note that the same data shows that the waters around the UK have
been warmer than usual for the last month during which period
there has been virtually no rain, which belies the old adage that
an English summer is "two fine days and a thunderstorm".
If you could take this data and predict (and publish) where
exceptional rain would occur within the next month, and then
report to us afterwards how good the correlation was, THEN I would
be impressed.
Chris Burgoyne
On 10/07/2018 12:38, Stephen Salter wrote:
Hi All
Following Cyril's link I found where you can do week-by-week
steps over a year by single-clicking from the site
https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/clim/sst.anom.anim.year.html
<https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/clim/sst.anom.anim.year.html>
This will show that the trend leading to the present floods
started back in March 2018.
High sea surface temperatures are not the only factor. High
winds will increase evaporation but will also move water vapour
away. The dangerous conditions are how long we have had high sea
surface temperatures and winds blowing to-and-fro or
round-and-round without going far from the hot patch of sea and
then moving inland over rising ground.
Stephen
On 09-Jul-18 1:49 PM, Andrew Lockley wrote:
The model is simple: you'd present the risk ratios to the client
(verified by consultants), and charge for the work done. For
example 60pc risk of a category 4 without MCB, 20pc chance with
MCB. They'd pay for the work, regardless of the result achieved.
A
On Mon, 9 Jul 2018, 12:58 Stephen Salter, <s.sal...@ed.ac.uk
<mailto:s.sal...@ed.ac.uk>> wrote:
Andrew
I have worked out benefit-to-cost ratios of marine cloud
brightening up to three orders of magnitude but it is
difficult to get paid for stopping something with an
uncertain probability of occurrence.
It might be possible to have payments based on the
deviations of sea surface temperature from historical
observations but there would be problems about two cooling
corporations in competition.
Chinese doctors used to be paid while a patient remained
healthy but payments stopped when they were ill.
Stephen
Emeritus Professor of Engineering Design, School of
Engineering, Mayfield Road, University of Edinburgh EH9 3DW,
Scotland
On 09-Jul-18 10:32 AM, Andrew Lockley wrote:
I remain of the view that MCB could be commercialised for
this purpose relatively easily. The investment would for
R&D and fleet construction be perhaps $10-100M, and the fee
for each storm-busting job would probably be 20M (a
bargain, when the US alone is taking 200bn damage per
year). You'd likely get 1-3/Yr, min, giving an average
income of 40M. Alternatively, there may be a larger number
of cheaper jobs.
Assuming an operating cost base of 30pc of fee, that's
roughly 25M/yr operating profit. The investment breaks even
at year 2-4, is sustainably profitable thereafter, and
retains substantial value in know-how and IP.
Andrew
On Mon, 9 Jul 2018, 10:04 Stephen Salter,
<s.sal...@ed.ac.uk <mailto:s.sal...@ed.ac.uk>> wrote:
Dear Cyril
Thank you. That is exactly what I imagined. The next
questions are how far in advance of the heavy rain can
we get a warning and how deep the patch of warm water
goes. I will have to learn how to drive the NOAA
website. It was alarming to get warnings from both
Google and Firefox that this might be dangerous.
I have done some calculations about the number of spray
vessels that would be needed to cool El Niño events
with marine cloud brightening. The number was
surprisongly small and I would like to hear from anyone
who would like to check them.
Stephen
Emeritus Professor of Engineering Design
School of Engineering
Mayfield Road
Edinburgh EH9 3DW
+44 (0)131 650 5704
The University of Edinburgh is a charitable body, registered in
Scotland, with registration number SC005336.
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