RE: [geo] The Planet Remade: Reviewed – Duncan McLaren

2015-11-10 Thread Douglas MacMartin
“The crux is that Morton does not believe pathways without geoengineering can avoid climate harms without causing other serious social or economic harms.” Isn’t that patently obvious at this point? That of course is not an argument for deploying solar geoengineering, simply an argument in

RE: [geo] Can geoengineering save coastal cities? | New Scientist

2015-09-07 Thread Douglas MacMartin
Cooling the tropics more than the poles is also a choice for stratospheric aerosol injection; if you want that effect you can presumably do that, and if you’d rather cool the poles more than the tropics you could do that instead. From: geoengineering@googlegroups.com

RE: [geo] Can geoengineering save coastal cities? | New Scientist

2015-09-07 Thread Douglas MacMartin
in the stratosphere. It is the one to two-year life that stops you having local control. Even if you could choose the starting point(s) how would you then direct it? Stephen On 07/09/2015 17:57, Douglas MacMartin wrote: Cooling the tropics more than the poles is also a choice for stratospheric

RE: [geo] Can we have it both ways? On potential trade-offs between Mitigation and Solar Radiation Management | Baatz

2015-09-06 Thread Douglas MacMartin
Didn’t read quite as carefully as I could, but two quick comments: i) the assumption in extending the argument to research is that more research increases the likelihood of SRM being used as an excuse not to mitigate; I suspect that is unfounded. That is, more research may make

Re: [geo] List of current Geoengineering?

2015-12-20 Thread Douglas MacMartin
As an engineer I agree that engineering is purposeful. The other three words I disagree with, as would any other engineer. (Wikipedia's definition of engineering is reasonable) Precision is clearly a subjective construct, as is predictability. I am quite confident for example that adding strat

RE: [geo] Response of the AMOC to reduced solar radiation – the modulating role of atmospheric-chemistry

2016-05-11 Thread Douglas MacMartin
And yet another area where turning down the sun won’t have the same effect as stratospheric aerosols. (Since it has the opposite sign in the stratosphere.) From: geoengineering@googlegroups.com [mailto:geoengineering@googlegroups.com] On Behalf Of Charles H. Greene Sent: Wednesday, May 11,

RE: [geo] ACPD - Multi-model dynamic climate emulator for solar geoengineering

2016-06-28 Thread Douglas MacMartin
Hi Stephen, You’re right, in the final version we should word that better. Thanks! I think that doing this for solar reduction (clearly a first but not a last step) suggests that the tropospheric climate response to an imposed radiative forcing is, in climate models, pretty linear for

RE: [geo] Fwd: Watch the Videos of the "Restoring the Carbon Balance" Webinars and More

2017-02-10 Thread Douglas MacMartin
Actually I think it quite plausible that fossil fuels will be competitive in 2040+ (absent carbon pricing). I don’t see anything on the horizon in storage that would make me believe that that problem is guaranteed to be solved by then (I think it’s really hard to predict when there’s orders of

RE: [geo] Scientists Focused on Geoengineering Challenge the Inevitability of Multi-Millennial Global Warming

2016-09-06 Thread Douglas MacMartin
I’m sorry, but I fail to see the connection between improvements in information technology (e.g. self-driving cars), which are solvable by virtue of faster computation and better algorithms, and CDR, which is limited by energetics and real physical and chemical processes while dealing with a

RE: [geo] Re: The cost of stratospheric climate engineering revisited | SpringerLink

2016-10-05 Thread Douglas MacMartin
The short answer on what altitude we “need” is, nobody knows yet. The climate science hasn’t been funded enough to answer that type of question. So any number anyone has written down is speculation or educated guess until one can more seriously evaluate the pros and cons. That makes it

RE: [geo] CO2 capture may be our only option for stabilising temperatures - we need to find out the costs, fast | Oxford Martin School

2016-11-22 Thread Douglas MacMartin
, Mayfield Road, Edinburgh EH9 3DW, Scotland s.sal...@ed.ac.uk <mailto:s.sal...@ed.ac.uk> , Tel +44 (0)131 650 5704, Cell 07795 203 195, WWW.homepages.ed.ac.uk/shs <http://WWW.homepages.ed.ac.uk/shs> , YouTube Jamie Taylor Power for Change On 21/11/2016 14:23, Douglas MacMartin wrot

RE: [geo] What has social science research on the public perception of climate engineering done? And what can it do?

2016-11-27 Thread Douglas MacMartin
Stephen – when I was in industry I worked on the engineering of a project that hadn’t yet worked out the objectives, and I don’t think we should be repeating that type of mistake (yes, the project was a disaster… we designed the hardware, then we figured out what hardware we needed, and after 6

RE: [geo] CO2 capture may be our only option for stabilising temperatures - we need to find out the costs, fast | Oxford Martin School

2016-11-21 Thread Douglas MacMartin
ring@googlegroups.com [mailto:geoengineering@googlegroups.com] On Behalf Of Myles Allen Sent: Sunday, November 20, 2016 1:47 PM To: Douglas MacMartin <macma...@cds.caltech.edu>; 'Stephen Salter' <s.sal...@ed.ac.uk>; geoengineering@googlegroups.com; Oxford Martin Info <i...@oxfordmartin.ox.ac.uk

RE: [geo] RESEARCHERS INVESTIGATING LARGE SUNSHADES TO COMBAT GLOBAL WARMING

2016-12-12 Thread Douglas MacMartin
I think if you can get them there, keeping them there is comparatively easy... (The advantage of it being an equilibrium point is that the effort required to keep it there is in principle small.) Though I think it would be cheaper to massively transform the world's energy system in the next

RE: [geo] "UN Convention still says “No” to manipulating the climate"

2016-12-16 Thread Douglas MacMartin
Agree that it isn’t a blanket endorsement, but I’m not sure what disagreement there is; the only geoengineering research that doesn’t help understand biodiversity impacts would be research into the hardware needed for deployment. Everything else that I can think of would ultimately be needed

RE: [geo] US scientists launch world's biggest solar geoengineering study

2017-03-25 Thread Douglas MacMartin
Embark on what? The Guardian article is somewhat confused in general. Basically, there’s only two real observations. Harvard has some research money. And some quite small fraction of that research money will go into very small scale outdoor field experiments. I personally think it

RE: [geo] Consensus, Certainty, and Catastrophe: Discourse, Governance, and Ocean Iron Fertilization

2017-04-11 Thread Douglas MacMartin
I haven’t read the article, but just in case there’s anyone who hasn’t been following this, the abstract by itself is extremely misleading. It would be pretty stupid and irresponsible to issue carbon credits for an approach for which there is no evidence for the claimed amount of net

RE: [geo] Help: What do we know and what don't we know about solar geoengineering?

2017-07-19 Thread Douglas MacMartin
Hi Ken, We tried to write some down in our Earth’s Future piece last year, at least for stratospheric aerosols MacMartin, D. G., B. Kravitz, J.C.S. Long, and P.J. Rasch, “Geoengineering with stratospheric aerosols: what do we not know after a decade of research?” Earth’s Future, 4,

RE: [geo] Bullshit in geoengineering discourse

2017-08-06 Thread Douglas MacMartin
I think it would be more accurate to say that, based on what we know today, we don’t know what the costs of DAC would be if deployed at scale. I understand that people have made estimates, but it is very hard to reliably forecast costs from things done at 3 or more (?) orders of magnitude

RE: [geo] Engineering drama, post CEC

2017-10-16 Thread Douglas MacMartin
Hi Andrew, I personally don’t see this as a problem (and I’ve worked a bit with Wake on question). The direct costs of getting stuff to the stratosphere are not going to be the long-term barrier to deployment (and might not even be the biggest costs of deployment, assuming one needs to

RE: [geo] Engineering drama, post CEC

2017-10-16 Thread Douglas MacMartin
The start was Andrew’s email, which was based on a presentation given at CEC17 (sorry, there weren’t any viewgraphs, but you’ve already got the summary). There’s nothing inherently “wrong” with any approach. Eventually we’ll need a more serious engineering analysis of different options

[geo] Solar geoengineering reduces atmospheric carbon burden

2017-09-01 Thread Douglas MacMartin
GTC, equivalent to 12-26% of twenty-first-century emissions at a cost of under US$0.5 per tCO2. Douglas MacMartin Senior Research Associate & Senior Lecturer, Mechanical and Aerospace Engineering Faculty Fellow, Cornell Atkinson Center for a Sustainable Future Cornell University (650)

RE: [geo] Engineering drama, post CEC

2017-10-19 Thread Douglas MacMartin
orked on gas guns, which have more suitable performance characteristics. Generally, I don't take the view that engineering is trivial. I think we should engineer early, and with the same enthusiasm as we apply to other aspects. Engineering is trivial when it's done, not when it isn't.

RE: [geo] Climate science foe Lamar Smith - geoengineering is ‘worth exploring.’

2017-11-13 Thread Douglas MacMartin
: Monday, November 13, 2017 4:58 AM To: Michael MacCracken <mmacc...@comcast.net> Cc: Douglas MacMartin <macma...@cds.caltech.edu>; Greg Rau <gh...@sbcglobal.net>; geoengineering <geoengineering@googlegroups.com> Subject: Re: [geo] Climate science foe Lamar Smith -

RE: [geo] Climate science foe Lamar Smith - geoengineering is ‘worth exploring.’

2017-11-11 Thread Douglas MacMartin
Peter - I think that the risks of future climate change are sufficiently concerning that it would be premature to stop all research on some options on the assumption that other options are 100% guaranteed to suffice. I think that pretty much everyone who thinks we need to research SRM also

[geo] Chemtrailers...

2017-11-13 Thread Douglas MacMartin
also edited out all the hate-spewing nonsense from his own emails to make it look like he was charming and I was a jerk. Which is why my conclusion is that he knows full well that he's making stuff up.) From: Douglas MacMartin [mailto:dgm...@cornell.edu] Sent: Monday, November 13, 2017 8:08 AM

RE: [geo] Subcommittee on Environment and Subcommittee on Energy Hearing - Geoengineering: Innovation, Research, and Technology

2017-11-01 Thread Douglas MacMartin
Witnesses: * Dr. Phil Rasch, chief scientist for climate science, Laboratory Fellow, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory * Dr. Joseph Majkut, director of climate policy, Niskanen Center * Dr. Douglas MacMartin, senior research associate, Cornell University * Ms. Kell

RE: [geo] Can anyone offer a CE perspective on this SLR article?

2017-11-03 Thread Douglas MacMartin
Whether one uses stratospheric aerosols or marine cloud brightening, it seems pretty safe to assume that lower temperatures at high latitudes will have a net benefit on both sea ice and SLR. Independent of CE, we have no useful capability to predict the most important part of SLR (that due

RE: [geo] Can anyone offer a CE perspective on this SLR article?

2017-11-04 Thread Douglas MacMartin
Both SAI and MCB probably need of order of 20 years of research before we could make reasonably informed decisions; both have a long list of unknowns. (In the case of MCB, we don't even really know if it "works" in any meaningful sense of the word, because cloud-aerosol interactions are too

RE: [geo] Summary of House Science Hearing on climate and geo-eng: not so bad?

2017-11-09 Thread Douglas MacMartin
You can listen to the whole thing here if you want; if you click on each of our names you’ll get our written testimony. (Which at least in my case hardly says anything surprising; this didn’t seem like the place to go into depth.)

[geo] RE: On when it might make sense for intervention to begin

2017-11-06 Thread Douglas MacMartin
ntervention that we'll be suffering from both the growing impacts and then the supposed cure. At the very least, I would think a good case could be made for such an effort. Best regards, Mike MacCracken On 11/4/17 11:43 AM, Douglas MacMartin wrote: > Both SAI and MCB probably need of orde

RE: [geo] Scientists Look to Bali Volcano for Clues to Curb Climate Change - Scientific American

2017-12-03 Thread Douglas MacMartin
in DAC. doug From: geoengineering@googlegroups.com [mailto:geoengineering@googlegroups.com] On Behalf Of Michael MacCracken Sent: Sunday, December 03, 2017 4:07 PM To: Peter Eisenberger <peter.eisenber...@gmail.com> Cc: Douglas MacMartin <macma...@cds.caltech.edu>; Michael Hay

RE: [geo] Scientists Look to Bali Volcano for Clues to Curb Climate Change - Scientific American

2017-12-03 Thread Douglas MacMartin
Peter, Once we have demonstrated DAC with permanent storage at Gt scale and proven it to be low cost with no side effects, then I would agree that we can stop researching other options. Until then I think it is premature to declare that we have found the solution and can ignore every other

[geo] bill proposing NAS study on geoengineering

2017-12-08 Thread Douglas MacMartin
FYI; McNerney (D-CA) was the main person pushing for the US house hearing last month; this bill asks the National Academies to look at governance and research needs. (This would be purely on the solar geoengineering side, to complement the existing NAS study on CDR.)

RE: [geo] Engineering drama, post CEC

2017-10-19 Thread Douglas MacMartin
cially so if done over a region that is covered by ocean. From: geoengineering@googlegroups.com <mailto:geoengineering@googlegroups.com> [mailto:geoengineering@googlegroups.com] On Behalf Of Douglas MacMartin Sent: 19 October 2017 12:25 To: david.sev...@carbon-cycle.co.uk <m

RE: [geo] SAI engineering costs - Aurora 2?

2017-12-30 Thread Douglas MacMartin
Hi Andrew, The only person I know looking at any of this is Wake, whom you know. Re altitude and latitude, short answer is that we don’t know, but seems pretty likely that (a) should inject away from the equator (15-30 degrees, and essential to be both NH and SH) and (b) not right above

RE: [CDR] Re: [geo] Re: Unexpectedly large impact of forest management and grazing on global vegetation biomass.

2018-01-08 Thread Douglas MacMartin
Actually it’s much simpler than that. Most of the people running IAMs don’t have DAC in their models at all, or if they do, at a price that would lead to it’s being used. Don’t forget that the current set of publications pointing out the problems with BECCS are essentially criticizing IAM

RE: [geo] Re: Leaked policy draft of SR15 - what do you think?

2018-01-17 Thread Douglas MacMartin
Peter – you should replace every use of the words “can” and “will” below with something like “have been projected to” and “may”. If you do that, I’ll agree with you. As written, I disagree. Neither you nor anyone else has proven that DAC *will* have costs below $50/ton, and I don’t think

RE: [geo] Leaked policy draft of SR15 - what do you think?

2018-01-14 Thread Douglas MacMartin
I don’t see this as “secretive”. Peer review has its problems, but on the whole I’d rather see stuff peer reviewed before being made public, at least when there is likely to be public attention. The first order draft had no shortage of factual errors; wouldn’t you rather make sure that

RE: [geo] Fwd: Geoengineering and Capitalism

2018-02-02 Thread Douglas MacMartin
, 2018 7:29 AM To: Reynolds, J.L. (Jesse) <j.l.reyno...@uu.nl> Cc: m...@clivehamilton.com; Daniel B Kirk-Davidoff <da...@umd.edu>; Douglas MacMartin <macma...@cds.caltech.edu>; geoengineering <geoengineering@googlegroups.com>; brian.peter...@nau.edu; diana.stu...@nau.ed

RE: [geo] Fwd: Geoengineering and Capitalism

2018-02-01 Thread Douglas MacMartin
Sorry, couldn’t leave this alone… I do find this sentence interesting: The second reason I’m surprised is it seems that the fossil fuel industry is supportive of GE, given that they fund many GE supporters (Hamilton 2013). The only connection I’m aware of between the fossil fuel industry

RE: [geo] Re: Geoengineering and Capitalism

2018-02-05 Thread Douglas MacMartin
Well, yes, no-one would deploy any form of SRM based on today’s knowledge, that’s why we need more research. But I don’t get why people have to make this all into some competition. CDR and SRM are different. They don’t do the same thing to the climate. Words like “best” only make sense

Re: [geo] paywalls

2018-08-05 Thread Douglas MacMartin
Some of us don’t have research budgets to cover publishing open-access (indeed, some of my funding explicitly doesn’t cover any publication fees at all). Given that there is almost zero public funding in this field in the US, most US geoengineering papers probably aren’t generated with public

RE: [geo] Estimating global agricultural effects of geoengineering using volcanic eruptions

2018-08-10 Thread Douglas MacMartin
And to add to Anthony, -Data is too limited to do what they want (really only one major volcanic eruption, which is confounded by an El Nino, which they try to subtract off of the signal by assuming that every El Nino has an identical effect) -The solar dimming and many

RE: [geo] Scaling

2018-08-25 Thread Douglas MacMartin
"Although the classical model implied that successive million year global temperature averages would differ by mere micro Kelvins, the implausibility had not been noticed." Uh... I thought it was pretty well known that the variance tends to continue to increase on longer and longer time-scales

RE: [geo] Can We Use Linear Response Theory to Assess Geoengineering Strategies?

2018-08-25 Thread Douglas MacMartin
“Relatively recent” as in at least 4 years ago... the question posed in the title seems straightforward to answer, since it’s been done already a number of times! MacMartin, D. G., Kravitz, B., Keith, D. W., and Jarvis, A., “Dynamics of the coupled human-climate system resulting from

RE: [geo] Should we lump MCB & Stratospheric SRM as equally risky?

2018-03-13 Thread Douglas MacMartin
I partly disagree; the physical aspects of termination shock for both are probably to first order nearly identical. In both cases the speed of the “shock” will be dominated by the time it takes for the climate to warm up (measured in years), though the change in radiative forcing will

[geo] RE: Having to decide

2018-03-13 Thread Douglas MacMartin
, but at least we already have international experience on that sort of thing. (See, e.g., Paris agreement targets.) (Sorry for the long answer, but my last one was too short.) doug From: Oliver Morton [mailto:olivermor...@economist.com] Sent: Monday, March 12, 2018 3:42 PM To: Douglas MacMartin

RE: [geo] Should we lump MCB & Stratospheric SRM as equally risky?

2018-03-13 Thread Douglas MacMartin
Hi Andrew, On the first one, yes, there are potentially regional applications of MCB, so agree with you on that. (I don’t think there are hemispheric applications of SAI; that would screw a lot of people with ITCZ shift, so SAI is only global.) Re the aircraft bit, no, I disagree that

RE: [geo] Should we lump MCB & Stratospheric SRM as equally risky?

2018-03-13 Thread Douglas MacMartin
I partly disagree; the physical aspects of termination shock for both are probably to first order nearly identical. In both cases the speed of the “shock” will be dominated by the time it takes for the climate to warm up (measured in years), though the change in radiative forcing will

RE: [geo] Solar geoengineering as part of an overall strategy for meeting the 1.5°C Paris target

2018-04-05 Thread Douglas MacMartin
Hi Stephen, The first number I found when I re-googled this was 13%, Table 1 of https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/full/10.1175/2011JCLI3972.1. But regardless, since the statistics are not uniform across the ocean, the patchiness doesn’t average out, and I think it is fair to say that the

[geo] RE: [CDR] Huh? Carbon Dioxide Emissions Raise Risk of Satellite Collisions - Scientific American

2018-10-05 Thread Douglas MacMartin
Of course, SRM with stratospheric aerosols would heat the stratosphere and more than offset the effect of CO2 on low-orbit atmospheric drag… From: carbondioxideremo...@googlegroups.com [mailto:carbondioxideremo...@googlegroups.com] On Behalf Of Andrew Lockley Sent: Friday, October 05, 2018

RE: [geo] Against Geoengineering, ETC

2018-10-24 Thread Douglas MacMartin
Honesty has never been a particularly important concern of ETC… your point isn’t only thing in here that is basically just made up. From: geoengineering@googlegroups.com [mailto:geoengineering@googlegroups.com] On Behalf Of Andrew Lockley Sent: Wednesday, October 24, 2018 4:06 AM To:

RE: [geo] Fwd: SRM ocean study

2018-10-29 Thread Douglas MacMartin
And to be clear (as a coauthor), the particular choice of how the aerosols were distributed in this model *did* cool the oceans, just not as much as it cooled the global mean (atmospheric) temperature. So that (assuming one deployed this way, and that the model is correct) if one held global

RE: [geo] Exploring accumulation-mode-H2SO4 versus SO2 stratospheric sulfate geoengineering in a sectional aerosol-chemistry-climate model

2018-11-15 Thread Douglas MacMartin
Oliver – do you think SOCOL has an error in its H2O concentrations? As long as they have the right values in the model, then the effect should be taken into account already. From: geoengineering@googlegroups.com [mailto:geoengineering@googlegroups.com] On Behalf Of Andrew Lockley Sent:

RE: [geo] Stratospheric aerosol injection tactics and costs in the first 15 years of deployment - IOPscience

2019-01-06 Thread Douglas MacMartin
ook at hyperloop suggests that it can be modified to attain approximately the launch velocities required. Did you consider this, or similar electrical launch? If so, why did you reject it? I look forward to receiving any response you are able to send. Andrew On Sat, 24 Nov 2018, 14:35 Doug

RE: [geo] Stratospheric aerosol injection tactics and costs in the first 15 years of deployment - IOPscience

2018-11-24 Thread Douglas MacMartin
For context, the “huge expense” you refer to below, for the first 15 years of deployment, is about 1.5x the estimated cost of the Camp fire in California last week. Or, 15 years of deployment (including development costs), are about 15% of the costs in the US alone from the 2017 hurricane

RE: Re[2]: [geo] Stratospheric aerosol injection tactics and costs in the first 15 years of deployment - IOPscience

2019-01-07 Thread Douglas MacMartin
Ummm…. Not filling a paper on aircraft design with every single statement that could conceivably be typed about SAI does not qualify as “obviously keeping secret”. That’s a patently silly statement. As for your comments, yes, reflecting of order 1% of sunlight (enough to reduce temperature by

RE: [geo] Re: Generative adversarial networks

2019-01-26 Thread Douglas MacMartin
My initial reaction is that ANN is a great way to work out strategies for non-linear and/or highly multivariable systems in data-rich contexts. For the sorts of control that’s been done to date by Ben and I, the system response (at least that of the models) is remarkably linear, and the

RE: [geo] Re: SRM optical impacts

2019-04-07 Thread Douglas MacMartin
There’s not that much ground-based astronomy in UV, relative to optical and IR astronomy. Impact on optical astronomy is straightforward; if you lose 5% of the direct light, you need 5% longer integration time to get same number of photons. Impact on IR astronomy is less obvious, as limited by

RE: [geo] Re: SRM optical impacts

2019-04-07 Thread Douglas MacMartin
The main reason to put in the middle of the ocean (or the first range of mountains that the air mass encounters) is to have a very stable atmosphere above the observatory, though it is true that Mt. Wilson above Pasadena used to be a very good site before the aerosol and light pollution… Laser

[geo] RE: [CDR] Governing Geoengineering at the United Nations?

2019-03-14 Thread Douglas MacMartin
Benoit, the answer to your question “Why are you on this list with geoengineering” is because the withdrawn UNEA resolution in question explicitly included CDR as well as SRM. You might disagree with that lumping, I might disagree, Andrew might disagree, but lump they did… From:

RE: [geo] Heinrich Boell evidence to UNEP

2019-03-09 Thread Douglas MacMartin
...@ed.ac.uk; f...@boell.de; vorst...@boell.de; i...@boell.de; geoengineering ; carbondioxideremo...@googlegroups.com; Douglas MacMartin Subject: Re: [geo] Heinrich Boell evidence to UNEP Greetings all I think Lili's piece raises some important issues and I suspect that her concerns reflect her

[geo] Save the date: GRC 2020

2019-02-19 Thread Douglas MacMartin
Just to get it on everyone's calendar... we will have a second Gordon Research Conference on Climate Engineering in 2020, June 28-July 3, in Maine, at the same venue as the 2017 conference. The 2017 meeting was excellent (see here for the program if you weren't there:

RE: [geo] Re: Generative adversarial networks

2019-01-28 Thread Douglas MacMartin
Thanks! I was actually thinking of reinforcement learning in my previous response… agree that GAN is not at all applicable here. I think a stronger statement is in order… this is NOT a problem where any ANN-based algorithm is likely to be of much value in the next 10+ years, and maybe never.

RE: [geo] Re: Generative adversarial networks

2019-01-28 Thread Douglas MacMartin
, then it isn’t any meaningful concept of geoengineering. From: Andrew Lockley [mailto:andrew.lock...@gmail.com] Sent: Monday, January 28, 2019 7:48 PM To: Douglas MacMartin Cc: Boyang Jack Pan ; geoengineering Subject: Re: [geo] Re: Generative adversarial networks I can think of a couple

[geo] Detection paper

2019-02-05 Thread Douglas MacMartin
Hi all, Our latest paper is out online here: https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2018JD028906; “Timescale for Detecting the Climate Response to Stratospheric Aerosol Geoengineering” This uses the GLENS simulations (see here:

RE: [geo] RE: [CDR] blog 28, Elon Musk vs regenerative development // Elon Musk vs le développement de régénération

2019-07-11 Thread Douglas MacMartin
To: kevin.lister2...@gmail.com Cc: Douglas MacMartin ; Robert Tulip ; Andrew Lockley ; Stephen Salter ; geoengineering Subject: Re: [geo] RE: [CDR] blog 28, Elon Musk vs regenerative development // Elon Musk vs le développement de régénération To start, I agree completely with the bottom line

RE: [geo] RE: [CDR] blog 28, Elon Musk vs regenerative development // Elon Musk vs le développement de régénération

2019-07-11 Thread Douglas MacMartin
one that David Keith was using, so it is hardly surprising that plenty of us have our own independent but very similar versions.) From: Robert Tulip Sent: Wednesday, July 10, 2019 9:35 PM To: Douglas MacMartin ; Andrew Lockley Cc: Stephen Salter ; geoengineering Subject: Re: [geo] RE: [CDR] b

Re: [geo] Re: Media enquiry - Leaked IPCC report on land degradation/food security et alia

2019-07-18 Thread Douglas MacMartin
Personally I think it is inappropriate to comment on a rough draft that hasn’t gone through peer review, and would suggest waiting until the document has been released... Douglas MacMartin Mechanical and Aerospace Engineering, Cornell University From

RE: [geo] Climate system response to stratospheric sulfate aerosols: sensitivity to altitude of aerosol layer

2019-12-15 Thread Douglas MacMartin
This is a great study to understand the effectiveness per unit mass *in the stratosphere*. Also keep in mind that there’s an additional factor, that at lower altitudes it takes higher injection rates to achieve the same burden in the stratosphere (i.e., lower lifetime at lower injected

RE: [geo] Climate system response to stratospheric sulfate aerosols: sensitivity to altitude of aerosol layer

2019-12-17 Thread Douglas MacMartin
that, if there were any appreciable funding, would not be fundamentally hard to answer. From: Andrew Lockley Sent: Tuesday, December 17, 2019 4:36 AM To: Govindasamy Bala Cc: geoengineering ; Douglas MacMartin Subject: Re: [geo] Climate system response to stratospheric sulfate aerosols

RE: [geo] Climate system response to stratospheric sulfate aerosols:sensitivity to altitude of aerosol layer

2019-12-17 Thread Douglas MacMartin
has been way over-emphasized in terms of downsides… a big problem if you did a lot of cooling today, but probably not a big problem if you do a moderate amount of cooling in 20 years.) doug From: john gorman Sent: Tuesday, December 17, 2019 9:39 AM To: Douglas MacMartin ; Andrew Lockley

Re: [geo] A Small Provision in the FY20 Spending Package Deserves a Much Bigger Discussion SHUCHI TALATI

2020-01-25 Thread Douglas MacMartin
Not in the NOAA bill. That would be in the one written for DOE. (That I don’t recall the status of) Douglas MacMartin Mechanical and Aerospace Engineering, Cornell University From: geoengineering@googlegroups.com on behalf of Stephen Salter Sent: Saturday

RE: [geo] sulfate aerosol geoengineering modelled by solar dimming

2020-02-17 Thread Douglas MacMartin
Agreed that the pattern of response isn’t as inhomogeneous as the forcing is, though it is still true that a uniform aerosol layer will overcool the tropics and undercool the poles, and that choosing your injection locations so that the aerosol layer is not perfectly uniform does actually

RE: [geo] Weakening of the extratropical storm tracks in idealized solar geoengineering scenarios

2020-02-09 Thread Douglas MacMartin
No. Every model that has ever simulated solar dimming shows that the poles would cool relative to not dimming the sun. But, if you just turn the sun down then you “undercool” the poles. The plot is G1 relative to pre-industrial, not G1 relative to 4xCO2. (These are the exact same model

[geo] 2020 GRC/GRS on Climate Engineering

2020-03-12 Thread Douglas MacMartin
that would of course be disappointing, it is far more important to protect everyone's health. Thanks, and hopefully will see many of you at the end of June! doug Douglas MacMartin Senior Research Associate and Senior Lecturer, Mechanical and Aerospace Engineering, and Faculty Fellow, Atkinson Center

RE: Re: [geo] Personal sulfate budget

2020-04-11 Thread Douglas MacMartin
No… see https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/09644016.2019.1648169 From: geoengineering@googlegroups.com On Behalf Of Andrew Lockley Sent: Saturday, April 11, 2020 5:28 AM To: Aaron Franklin Cc: geoengineering ; Arctic Methane Google Group Subject: Re: Re: [geo] Personal sulfate

RE: [geo] Evaluating the efficacy and equity of environmental stopgap measures

2020-03-28 Thread Douglas MacMartin
Unfortunately the cause and effect go the other way – for any of us trying to get research done on a shoestring, we simply don’t have the resources to pay for open-access on top of that. I can’t speak for this team, but for much of what our research group does, that would have to come out of

RE: [geo] What scares you most about SRM?

2020-04-25 Thread Douglas MacMartin
I’d second Andy… why *wouldn’t* you be concerned about a global-scale deployment of other methods? (Fair to not be concerned about those methods because you don’t think they’d do anything at all globally, e.g. cool roofs.) From: geoengineering@googlegroups.com On Behalf Of Andy Parker Sent:

RE: [geo] What scares you most about SRM?

2020-04-25 Thread Douglas MacMartin
, there’s going to be lots of differences between methods, most of which we don’t know enough about right now. From: Renaud de RICHTER Sent: Saturday, April 25, 2020 1:46 PM To: Douglas MacMartin Cc: apark...@gmail.com; geoengineering Subject: Re: [geo] What scares you most about SRM? I can't

RE: [geo] What scares you most about SRM?

2020-04-26 Thread Douglas MacMartin
, 2020 9:46 AM To: Douglas MacMartin Cc: Renaud de RICHTER ; apark...@gmail.com; geoengineering Subject: Re: [geo] What scares you most about SRM? Dear Douglas, and All, Thank you for the ongoing discussion, which is always very informative. May I just ask in relation to the statement below

RE: [geo] Re: SRM offset standards?

2020-05-03 Thread Douglas MacMartin
et parking. On Sunday, May 3, 2020 at 10:36:24 AM UTC-4, Douglas MacMartin wrote: You don’t need a countervailing force, you just need to displace yourself sunward until the forces balance… (though how far depends on areal mass density, and displacing too far sunward will require greater are

RE: [geo] SRM offset standards?

2020-05-04 Thread Douglas MacMartin
Tim – the difference between the 0.22% and 2% is (i) factor of 4 from ratio of projected area to surface area of a sphere, (ii) factor of 1/0.7 to account for the existing albedo of the Earth, (iii) factor of 3/3.7 since 2% is a rough estimate for 2xCO2, and (iv) efficacy of response to solar

RE: [geo] John Moore steal my research work: Conference poster proof

2020-05-16 Thread Douglas MacMartin
I don’t believe that this is an appropriate forum for this. If there’s a concern, it should be brought up at BNU and with the journal, not aired publicly. (I could certainly state my opinion, but I don’t think that belongs here either.) From: geoengineering@googlegroups.com On Behalf Of

RE: [geo] Re: SRM offset standards?

2020-05-03 Thread Douglas MacMartin
You don’t need a countervailing force, you just need to displace yourself sunward until the forces balance… (though how far depends on areal mass density, and displacing too far sunward will require greater area to shade the Earth if I recall right). But even if the propellant requirement is

RE: [geo] Postdoctoral positions available

2020-10-02 Thread Douglas MacMartin
You’re quick! I typed it in last night and figured I’d send it out to the list in the morning… but you beat me to it! From: geoengineering@googlegroups.com On Behalf Of Andrew Lockley Sent: Thursday, October 1, 2020 9:13 PM To: geoengineering Subject: [geo] Postdoctoral positions available

RE: [geo] Background-Greenland collapse

2020-08-15 Thread Douglas MacMartin
What is not correct in the media report is this sentence: “This process, however, would take decades.” Well, I guess arguably that’s true, it’s just it would take a LOT of decades. Melt rate is currently of order 1-2mm/yr equivalent SLR, so to get the 6m from melting all of Greenland would

RE: [geo] Background-Greenland collapse

2020-08-15 Thread Douglas MacMartin
. That’s not exactly a profound observation… From: Andrew Lockley Sent: Saturday, August 15, 2020 7:20 AM To: Douglas MacMartin Cc: geoengineering Subject: Re: [geo] Background-Greenland collapse The more advanced the process, the more momentum it has, and the harder it is to stop or reverse

RE: [geo] Background-Greenland collapse

2020-08-15 Thread Douglas MacMartin
the research now, leaving us in the same boat yet another decade later. doug From: Michael MacCracken Sent: Saturday, August 15, 2020 12:54 PM To: Douglas MacMartin ; andrew.lock...@gmail.com; geoengineering Subject: Re: [geo] Background-Greenland collapse Hi Doug et al.--I'm a bit late

RE: [geo] Background-Greenland collapse

2020-08-15 Thread Douglas MacMartin
he earth into a glacial period (colloquially, an ice age). I don't think there has been any serious modelling work done on ice loss reversal, or even if the models are capable of doing this with any useful accuracy. On Sat, 15 Aug 2020, 12:03 Douglas MacMartin, mailto:dgm...@cornell.edu>> wrot

RE: [geo] Can stratospheric geoengineering alleviate global-warming-induced changes in deciduous fruit cultivation? The case of Himachal Pradesh (India)

2020-07-09 Thread Douglas MacMartin
Maybe someone should write something called “False narratives on geoengineering: solutionism” Fundamentally, the framing in any of these (other than Alan’s, which lists both the benefits and harms, and was also written at a time when a few people actually *were* proposing geoengineering as a

RE: [geo] Does the Democratic Climate Plan include SRM?

2020-07-04 Thread Douglas MacMartin
Search for “atmospheric climate intervention”. (You’ll find it on p. 526) d From: geoengineering@googlegroups.com On Behalf Of E Durbrow Sent: Friday, July 3, 2020 10:40 PM To: geoengineering Subject: [geo] Does the Democratic Climate Plan include SRM? When I skimmed through the 500 page

RE: [geo] CALIFORNIA GOVERNMENT BACKS AWAY FROM SOLAR GEOENGINEERING PROJECT

2020-06-17 Thread Douglas MacMartin
Well, to the extent that one can interpret the CBD decision as a moratorium or not, it still has an explicit exception for research (and I think one would be hard-pressed to claim that SCoPEx will itself have negative impacts on biodiversity), so I think it is fair to say that the authors of

RE: [geo] Background-Greenland collapse

2020-08-16 Thread Douglas MacMartin
– very hard to make predictions about, but, of course, very clear that it is a serious possibility. (And re acid rain, that’s not significant in terms of ocean acidification.) doug From: Jasmin S. A. Link Sent: Saturday, August 15, 2020 7:32 PM To: Douglas MacMartin ; geoengineering@googlegroups.com

RE: [geo] Background-Greenland collapse

2020-08-16 Thread Douglas MacMartin
personal expert: Can you be accused for moral(e) hazard? Best regards, Jasmin Am 16.08.2020 um 12:59 schrieb Douglas MacMartin: Thanks – I agree completely that moral hazard is a serious risk, perhaps the biggest risk. (But I also think it is important to be more explicit about one

RE: [geo] Solar geoengineering may not prevent strong warming from direct effects of CO2 on stratocumulus cloud cover

2020-11-17 Thread Douglas MacMartin
This is a really interesting nonlinear mechanism, whereby high levels of CO2 might result in more warming than our models currently project, and with hysteresis (so that once you lose the clouds, you don’t get them back by cooling). But worth keeping in mind that their simulations were for

[geo] CEC 21 submission deadline is tomorrow!

2021-06-29 Thread Douglas MacMartin
Just a reminder to everyone; CEC21 will be on-line only this year, the submission deadline is tomorrow... https://www.ce-conference.org/contributions doug Douglas MacMartin Senior Research Associate and Senior Lecturer, Mechanical and Aerospace Engineering, and Faculty Fellow, Atkinson Center

RE: [geo] THE COOLING CONUNDRUM REVERSING CLIMATE CHANGE TO REFREEZE THE ARCTIC

2021-02-09 Thread Douglas MacMartin
Adrian – your list of ostensibly viable should include SAI too, as was pointed out earlier on this same thread. In principle one could inject SO2 or other in the spring at high latitude (and indeed, that may be the most economically viable, technologically achievable near-term approach – and

RE: [geo] National Academy briefing re: geoengineering governing happening right now

2021-03-25 Thread Douglas MacMartin
The charge to the committee was to recommend research agenda and research governance, not to assess the literature. We provided background material that we felt was sufficient to motivate the research agenda and governance recommendations, but the report should not in any way be interpreted as

  1   2   >