There is no reason to support one method over the other in particular, simply because the success of any strategy is also highly dependent upon local conditions. There are situations where the passage to green OA is not practicable. In such a case, the alternative is simple: either try the Gold road, or give up on that site. The latter term is anything but exciting. Better keep the two strategies at hand and use them pragmatically in each situation in order to maximise results. This is just plain old common sense.
As for models of "scholarly communication in general", allow me to express a fair amount of skepticism. I have trouble reconciling the economists' love for global models with their repeated inability to predict anything: how many of us did know that a grave economic crisis was about to strike at the end of 2008 despite many models available? Let us be honest and modest about these models and their claims. Jean-Claude Guédon Le samedi 23 février 2013 à 12:02 -0500, Stevan Harnad a écrit : > Bernius, S., Hanauske, M., Dugall, B. and König, W. (2013), Exploring > the effects of a transition to open access: Insights from a simulation > study. J. Am. Soc. Inf. Sci.. doi: 10.1002/asi.22772 > > > > The Open Access (OA) movement, which postulates gratis and > unrestricted online access to publicly funded research findings, has > significantly gained momentum in recent years. The two ways of > achieving OA are self-archiving of scientific work by the authors > (Green OA) and publishing in OA journals (Gold OA). But there is still > no consensus which model should be supported in particular. The aim of > this simulation study is to discover mechanisms and predict > developments that may lead to specific outcomes of possible market > transformation scenarios. It contributes to theories related to OA by > substantiating the argument of a citation advantage of OA articles and > by visualizing the mechanisms of a journal system collapsing in the > long-term due to the continuation of the serials crisis. The practical > contribution of this research stems from the integration of all market > players: Decisions regarding potential financial support of OA models > can be aligned with our findings, as well as the decision of a > publisher to migrate his/her journals to Gold OA. Our results indicate > that for scholarly communication in general, a transition to Green OA > combined with a certain level of subscription-based publishing and a > migration of few top journals is the most beneficial development. -- Jean-Claude Guédon Professeur titulaire Littérature comparée Université de Montréal
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