No clear majority for BJP in Maharashtra: Has the Narendra Modi wave lost steam? Sunday, 19 October 2014 - 9:45pm IST | Place: Mumbai | Agency: DNA
Nikhil Wagle The Bharatiya Janata Party has achieved historic success in the just concluded Maharashtra assembly elections. The party won 122 seats and has garnered over 27% votes. The BJP or its earlier avatar Jan Sangh, has never achieved this number since 1960. Even when the Shiv Sena-BJP government came to power in 1995, BJP had won only 65 seats. This underlines how historic this win has been for the BJP. And yet, the BJP hasn't been able to attain a majority on its own. Prime Minister Narendra Modi held over 25 rallies in the state and appealed for a clear majority for the party. As the assembly elections were held on the back of the Lok Sabha elections, it was being claimed that there was a Modi wave in the state. It cannot be denied that Prime Minister Narendra Modi's popularity has a lion's share in the BJP victory. But this popularity has not been enough to get a clear majority. BJP party president Amit Shah's caste arithmetic too hasn't been entirely successful. BJP got seats in Mumbai-Thane (25), western Maharashtra (24), north Maharashtra (15), Vidarbha (35) and Konkan (1). Except Konkan, BJP is ahead of the Sena in all regions of Maharashtra. But the party must introspect why it could not do exceptionally well in Vidarbha and why it was rejected in Konkan. It is here that the BJP lost seats that could have come in handy for the majority. It could have done better even in north Maharashtra. Had there been a Sena-BJP alliance, it wouldn't have been difficult for them to get 200 seats. We will know how both parties suffered after details emerge on voting, but breaking of alliance is one of the reasons why Sena's strength was reduced in the Mumbai-Thane belt. MNS too damaged Sena here. And yet, we must give credit to Uddhav for the 60 seats Shiv Sena has won. This was the first assembly election in the absence of Bal Thackeray. Uddhav had played the biggest gamble of his life by playing hardball while negotiating with the BJP. The gamble could have proved costly as the alliance eventually broke. But Uddhav led the campaign from the front and managed to take on the Modi wave to a great extent. Now BJP doesn't have an option to go for an alliance with the Shiv Sena. They will enjoy power if they negotiate in a mature manner now. Or else, the Nationalist Congress Party has already expressed willingness to go with the BJP by offering unsolicited support. One expected Congress-NCP to meet their Waterloo in this election. The Congress-NCP government had faced innumerable allegations of corruption, misappropriations and inefficient governance. And yet, together the two parties have scored 85 seats between them (Congress 45, NCP 41). NCP has kind of managed to keep its bastion in western Maharashtra by winning 21 seats there and Congress was saved by the skin of their teeth as the party won 15 seats in Vidarbha. As many as 14 ministers from this government lost in these polls. Defeats for Narayan Rane, Rajendra Darda, Anil Deshmukh, Nitin Raut, Ganesh Naik, Satej Patil, Sachin Ahir and Harshwardhan Patil have been noteworthy. Each of them behaved like a satrap of their constituency. Rane was the chief of Congress' campaign committee. The message from the voter is clear to them - you cannot continue to run your politics based on money and arrogance. The biggest loser this election seems to be the MNS who had 13 legislators in the last assembly. They managed only 1 seat and not even a single one from Mumbai-Thane this time. Raj Thackeray might be pursued by the media, but the voters seem to be totally disenchanted with him. He had shown hope once upon a time. But today he is a living example of what happens when you don't take politics seriously. The biggest peculiarity however is the entry of Asaduddin Owaisi's All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen's into the Maharashtra assembly. This party now has three MLAs in Maharashtra. We had seen how the party was influencing Muslims here in the Nanded municipal corporation. It was a clear indication that the Muslim voter was going away from the Congress. The entry of such religious fanatical parties is going to prove to be a headache in the future. One of the key issues in this election was the criminalisation of politics. Vijaykumar Gavit and Anil Gote won their seats, but Babanrao Pachpute and jail inmates like Sureshdada Jain and Gulabrao Deokar lost. Political parties must learn a lesson from this. We need to figure if Maharashtra politics will ever go beyond elective merit. This election has also underlined both Modi's influence as well as his limitations. It has also brought to the fore deficiencies of other parties. Voters have tried to fill the void of credibility by voting for the BJP and Modi. And yet, by not giving a clear majority, they have also told the BJP that they don't trust them fully. As many as 59 BJP candidates had switched over from another party to the BJP on the eve of the polls. It will be interesting to see how many of them were elected. If they are one-third of the total number of the BJP legislators, then it's not a good sign. There is no doubt that there will be a BJP-led government in the state. But people are watching closely how it is going to be ushered in. If BJP indeed takes support from the unprincipled NCP, people are not going to like it. Because this mandate is for the BJP-Sena government. All one can advise the new government is to not ignore this. Or else it won't be long before we see a repeat of 1999. http://www.dnaindia.com/analysis/standpoint-no-clear-majority-for-bjp-in-maharashtra-has-the-narendra-modi-wave-lost-steam-2027673 * * * Maharashtra Elections 2014: Who will clean up this gutter? Monday, 13 October 2014 - 7:52pm IST | Place: Mumbai | Agency: DNA Nikhil Wagle Elections are considered a celebration of democracy. However, the upcoming elections in Maharashtra seem to be a festival reserved only for our netas. After the inception of the state, the political ethos in Maharashtra has degraded consistently but in the 2014 elections, it has hit rock bottom. This assembly election is centered around wholesale political defections, criminals gaining in stature, and the naked display of wealth. And the media, which is supposed to keep an eye on this, is allegedly indulging in paid news. The Congress, NCP want to retain power by hook or by crook and the Shiv Sena, MNS and BJP have sniffed their best possible chance as well. In the lust for power, conscience has gone out of the window. Bowing down to the 'rising sun' is a commonly seen mindset. Unsurprisingly, defectors are hovering around the BJP who have in turn welcomed these defectors with open arms. Among the 256 seats contested by BJP, 59 candidates have been imported from various parties. One-third of these imported candidates belonged to the NCP. Of course, the Congress, Shiv Sena and MNS are not an exception to defections, but their numbers are not as big. If BJP emerges as the single largest party, one-third of their candidates will be those not loyal to the party's ideology. In 1990, the Congress gave tickets to criminals like Pappu Kalani and Hitendra Thakur. At that time, Sharad Pawar overlooked their shady character and focused only on elective merit. The BJP and other opposition parties had rightly gone hammer and tongs against this. But 24 years later, the BJP has followed the footsteps of Pawar by incorporating people like Vijaykumar Gavit and Babanrao Pachpute. More than 70% of these imported candidates are crorepatis. But why pillory the BJP alone? Shiv Sena has given candidatures to Uday Samant, Deepak Kesarkar, Prakash Surve, Ravindra Phatak, and Anil Babar. All of them have been welcomed from the NCP-Congress. Then, Prithviraj Pawar, a BJP leader, is fighting on behalf of the Shiv Sena. The only reason why defectors have not thronged the Congress, NCP and MNS is that their chances of winning are negligible. Criminalisation of politics dates back to the early 90s. The agitations of Anna Hazare and GR Khairnar had given voice to the distressed electorate. Sharad Pawar was capsized. But all parties have conveniently forgotten this history. The Association for Democratic Reforms scrutinized 2336 candidates and 798 of them have criminal backgrounds, which is 34%. Among them, 23% have serious charges like murder, attempt to murder, abduction, communal instigation and so on leveled against them. BJP and Shiv Sena lead the race here as well. BJP has gone a step further by giving a candidature to Anil Gote, who was imprisoned in the Telgi scam. Chhota Rajan's brother, Deepak Nikalje, is a candidate from the Republican party of India (RPI), BJP's ally. The most shocking aspect of this is that these tainted leaders share the stage with Prime Minister Narendra Modi with pride. Then there are Suresh Jain and Gulab Devkar fighting the elections from jail. Imprisoned because of their involvement in Jalgaon's Gharkul scam, they have shamelessly been given tickets by the Shiv Sena and NCP respectively. Udhhav Thackeray has also given deported Suhas Kande a chance. The Congress-NCP have mastered the art of criminalisation and it should come as a surprise if all their candidates are clean. MNS is not an exception either. Raj Thackeray's party has openly espoused violence in the past. Deplorably, these people will make laws for us after they become MLAs. Another NGO has found that 47% of the candidates across the state are crorepatis and that 10 of them have made more than 100 crores. The NCP that had 76% crorepatis last time, has 83% crorepatis now. The BJP's rise is also staggering -- from 54% to 81% crorepati candidates. Congress' number of 66% has gone up to 81%. The Shiv Sena is not behind either, they had 45% crorepatis in 2009 and today the number is 71%. After looking at these figures, it would hardly come as a surprise if cars stacked with cash are found during the campaign. More than Rs 15 crore has been confiscated and a complaint has been filled against Ajit Pawar as well. Majority of the candidates perceive this as an investment, which will pay huge dividends in the next five years. The campaign has ended now. From Shivaji to Afzal Khan, and from roaring tiger to a mouse; everyone has been invoked in this election. But the issues that dominated headlines in the last five years have vanished from the agenda of political parties. The irrigation scam, farmers' suicides, the state's derailing economy, unemployment and women's security - none of these issues have been relentlessly pursued by the political parties. The campaign has come down to passing slander remarks about others and stylish oratory skills. And as I mentioned earlier, very few media houses have admonished our politicians for being responsible for the degradation of the political discourse. Most of them are busy making money. Maharashtra, a state that is known for its philosophers, stooping down to this level is a gloomy development. The results will be out on October 19. All the surveys predict unprecedented success for the BJP. It will be a historical result if the BJP comes out with an absolute majority, something that has never happened since the inception of the state. If this happens, one will have to credit Modi for it. However, the moot question is: whoever forms the government in Maharashtra, are they going to dedicate themselves to cleaning up this gutter? Views expressed are the author's own http://www.dnaindia.com/analysis/standpoint-maharashtra-elections-2014-who-will-clean-up-this-gutter-2025753