Re: [Goanet] India "Rocking" ? Pause & Reflect.(Done)...

2006-06-22 Thread Mario Goveia

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---
--- ralph rau <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote:
>
> Vineet Aggarwal of the Transport Corporation of
> India explains in the Economist the typical jouney 
> of  a truck journey between two great metro 
> cities of India. Calcutta and Mumbai. This distance
> of 2,150 km takes 7 nights at an average speed of 
> 11km per hour (yes 11 km/hr) and 32 hours spent 
> waiting at toll booths and check points.
> 
Mario observes:
>
Hey, Ralph,
Thanks, I think, for another depressing scenario for
India's lack of progress or prospects that you seem to
revel in as a putative career pessimist:-))
>
I hope Bill Gates and Lakshmi Mittal and the other
businessmen scrambling around India are not listening
- except to me of course :-))
>
Anyway, did you know that back in the day, Indira
Gandhi ran Mr. Moolgaonkar of Tata's out of her office
when he suggested that India embark on a massive
national highway building to rival Germany's Autobahn
or the US Freeway system?  She wouldn't hear of it
because she said it would "only" enrich the
industrialists.  Never mind that, if managed by a
combination of equipment and labor, it would have
employed millions, created an economic tsunami, and
opened up the country and the manufacturing economy
for business and tourism.  I think they should get
back to Moolgaonkar's vision, which would still apply.
 Better late than never.
>
Ralph writes:
>
> India has a long way to go. And to paraphrase the
> cynic - the living will surely get worse before it 
> gets better 
>
Mario observes:
>
After pausing and reflecting it seems to me that what
India desperately also needs is some relief from all
these cynics, from the anonymous one that Ralph cites
to all of Cornel's "educated" friends to Elisabeth's
favorite cynic, a guy named Malthus, whose pessimistic
followers have been patiently waiting for him to be
proven right for 200 + years only to be repeatedly
confounded by those pesky optimists, aided and abetted
by those problems solvers from the growing population
pool:-))
>
Ralph continues doggedly:
>>
> Go to doingbusiness.org/Economy rankings. In a
> ranking of 155 countries by ease of doing business 
> in 2006, the World Bank and IFC ranks India at 116, 
> two places below Iraq, 56 below Pakistan and 25 
> below China. 
>
Mario is bemused:
>
At the same time that other lefties who oppose the
liberation of Iraq are telling us that it is an
unmitigated and deadly quagmire, doingbusiness.org
ranks Iraq ahead of India as a place to do business. 
I hope Cornel and Gabe, George and Marlon are paying
careful attention to this.
>
This incredible source also ranks chaotic, backward,
madrassa dominated and desperately struggling Pakistan
way ahead of desperately liberalizing India and China,
whereas you cannot get a flight into India or China
these days for all the American and European
businessmen scrambling to do business in India and
China, whereas Air Pakistan wishes it were that lucky.
>
I guess it all depends on who is doing the opining 
for doingbusiness.org.
>
Ralph writes:
>
> We need to constantly remind ourselves of these
> harsh realities when faced with the euphoria of 
> India "rocking". We cannot and should not ignore or 
> overlook the masses of the stinking poor who in
> India threaten to overwhelm the minority of the 
> perfumed 150 million middle and upper class having 
> discretionary income.
> 
Mario observes:
>
Ralph, I think we constantly need to remind ourself
that we need to forge ahead, with dogged
determination, no matter what.
>
I guess the adjective "perfumed" enabled you to adjust
the widely accepted estimate of 300+ million middle
and upper class Indians down to only 150 million.  The
rest are presumably not yet using western-style
deodorants, or at least American-style based on the
Europeans who were sitting next to me during my last
flight :-))
>
Or maybe the figure came from that pesky
doingbusiness.org and it's jaundiced outlook for
India.
>
Ralph, I don't know how old you are, but I lived
through the first half of India's euphoric but chaotic
and grossly wasted first 50 years after Independence. 
I escaped in despair.  Now I am gradually creeping
back as I see a glimmer at the end of the tunnel.  The
progress since they jettisoned socialism and began
their unfortunately too-slow-for-my-liking but steady
process of "liberalization" has been nothing short of
amazing.  So what if it is uneven right now?
>
Even if you and doingbusiness.org ar

[Goanet] India "Rocking" ? Pause & Reflect....

2006-06-21 Thread ralph rau

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---
Go to economist.com/audio on the web and listen to the author of the latest 
article on India.
   
  Does the booming Indian stock market (actually crashing now) reflect a 
sustainable growth trajectory for India ? The economy = spending. Spending = 
jobs Where are the jobs and where are the right fit candidates ?
   
  Where is the big Indian boom supposedly having its main impact. In IT/BPO. 
How many does this sector employ ? About 1.3 million out of a workforce of 400 
million.The IT/BPO workforce will increase to 2.1 million by 2010 according to 
McKinsey/Nasscom projections. India is already running short of suitable 
IT/BPO talent. MckInsey-Nasscom predicts shortage of 500,000 capable graduates 
by 2010.Costs are rising. Satyam expects to raise wages 18-19% this year.
   
  The 1.3 million workers are for the time being at least splurging out their 
2-3 lakh because they are relatively young, with no dependents. The ripple 
effect of 1.3 million workers spending $ 10 billion in wages on 
cars/bikes/clothes/coffee bars and other frivolities and the multiplier 
thereof is being felt all around. 
   
  With India lacking adequate trained English speaking talent the Economist 
states that the huge future employment opportunity will have to come from 
manual labour intensive industries. Can India compete here with China ?
   
  And here is the butt end of it all - a story how India is speeding ahead.
   
  Vineet Aggarwal of the Transport Corporation of India explains in the 
Economist the typical jouney of  a truck journey between two great metro 
cities of India. Calcutta and Mumbai. This distance of 2,150 km takes 7 nights 
at an average speed of 11km per hour (yes 11 km/hr) and 32 hours spent waiting 
at toll booths and check points.
   
  India has a long way to go. And to paraphrase the cynic - the living will 
surely get worse before it gets better - Unless one selfishly believes that an 
Ipod in the ears, plasma TV in the living room and an occassional barista 
coffee means that all's well for the nation.
   
  Go to doingbusiness.org/Economy rankings. In a ranking of 155 countries by 
ease of doing business in 2006, the World Bank and IFC ranks India at 116, two 
places below Iraq, 56 below Pakistan and 25 below China. In part this reflects 
the huger disparities between individual states and the way they are ruled. 
Uttar Pradesh has 170m plus people. Some 60% of increase in India's population 
between now and 2050- the "demographic dividend" that is raising such big 
hopes - will come in UP and 3 other northern states with rotten infastructure, 
education and governance.
   
  We need to constantly remind ourselves of these harsh realities when faced 
with the euphoria of India "rocking". We cannot and should not ignore or 
overlook the masses of the stinking poor who in India threaten to overwhelm 
the minority of the perfumed 150 million middle and upper class having 
discretionary income.

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