I. The seat share of the BJP has jumped from 83 (*counting in its two breakaway factions*) to 104. An increase of 21. The vote share rises from 32.4% (together with those of the breakaway factions) to 36.2% (approx.) - an increase of 3.8% points. As compared to the last parliamentary poll, the number of seats dips from 132. A decrease of 28. Vote share dips from 43.4%, a decrease of 7.2% points.
II. Congress seats dip from 122 to 78 - a decrease of 44. *If adjusted for the BJP splinters, it's a dip of 11, from 89.* Vote share from 36.6% to 38.0% - an increase of 1.4% points. As compared to the last parliamentary poll, the seats rise from 77 by 1. Vote share dips from 41.2% - a decrease of 3.2% points. III. JD(S) seats dip from 40 to 37. A decreas of 3 *If adjusted for the BJP splinters, it's a rise of 6, from 31.* Vote share from 19.9% to 18.3% - a drop of 1.6% points. As compared to the last parliamentary poll, the seats rise from 15, a quantum jump of 22. Vote share rises by 7.2%, from 11.1%. (Ref.: <http://eciresults.nic.in/> and < http://indianexpress.com/article/opinion/columns/karnataka-assembly-election-2018-siddaramaiah-congress-bjp-jds-lingayat-5173282/> and <http://eciresults.nic.in/>.) More significant points. AA. JD(S) vote share of 11.1% in the last parliamentary poll is considerably less as compared to both the preceding (19.9%) and the succeding, the subject, assembly poll (18.3%). The explanation is, perhaps, too simple. While in the assembly polls, the JD(S) is considered a serious player, not so in the parliamentary polls. But still more than half stick to it. BB. Conversely, the BJP vote share in the last parliamentary poll was remakaby higher at 43.4%, as compared to 36.2% this time. In case of even the Congress, despite the setback in the parliamentary poll, it was higher at 41.2%, as compared to 38% this time. Again, the most plausible explanation would be that a major factor was that the relatively less stable JD(S) voters voted in part for the BJP and in part for the Congress, in the parliamentary poll. More for the BJP and less for the Congress. The combined loss of vote shares of the BJP and the Congress, this time around, is, however, 10.4% points (7.2 + 3.2), while the the loss by JD(S) is 7.2% points. A difference of 3.2% points. So, it'd be quite reasonable to infer that the BJP has lost some extra votes as compared to the last parliamentary poll which hadn't come its way from the JD(S). CC. As compared to the last assembly poll, after accounting for the merger of the two breakaway BJP splinters, the JD(S) has lost in terms of vote shares - 1.6%. Yet, its number of seats has risen by 6. That's interesting. it suggests, only suggests, a limited understanding between the JD(S) and the BJP at the constituency levels. This hypothesis is also in sync with earlier speculations that the BJP is putting up weaker candidates where the JD(S) is stronger and, in the North, the JD(S) would put up candidates to ensure splitting of the support base of the Congress. (Ref: <<Congress president Rahul Gandhi and several of her own party workers have alleged that Mr Gowda has an unadmitted understanding with the BJP which includes him putting up weak candidates against theirs in several constituencies. ... By feigning interest in the Congress, Mr Gowda wanted to assure his minority voters that he was keen on forming an anti-BJP front. His son, on the other hand, wanted the Vokkaligas to know that after the election, in case of a fractured result, as predicted by several opinion polls, his party was likely to work with the BJP. Richer castes like the Vokkaligas are far softer on the BJP than backward groups; they were also being assured that their votes would not go to waste, but in fact, could land solidly with a combination that would form the next government.>> Source: < https://www.ndtv.com/karnataka-news/karnataka-assembly-elections-2018-next-month-could-be-a-big-moment-for-hd-deve-gowda-alleged-double-1843983 >.) It's also consistent with the fact that the Congress has lost seats in a rather big way, 11 seats, while increasing its vote share by 1.4% points. DD. The last point to note is that an allaince between the Congress and the JD(S) is unlikely to poll the arithmetical sum of their vote shares polled when fighting separately. All the votes may not be transferable to the partner. While, on the flip side, combining of forces may cause greater buzz and swing the vacillating. The Final Tally Party Won Leading Total Bahujan Samaj Party 1 0 1 Bharatiya Janata Party 104 0 104 Indian National Congress 78 0 78 Janata Dal (Secular) 37 0 37 Karnataka Pragnyavantha Janatha Party 1 0 1 Independent 1 0 1 Total 222 0 222 Party {Votes%,Vote Count} INC {38.0%,138240… BJP {36.2%,131853… JD(S) {18.3%,66663… IND {3.9%,1437045} BSP {0.3%,108592} AIMEP {0.3%,98154} BPJP {0.2%,83071} CPM {0.2%,81191} SWARAJ {0.2%,794… KPJP {0.2%,74229} NOTA {0.9%,322841} Other Congres has polled 6.39 lakh votes more than what the BJP has polled. 38.0% as against 36.2%, 1.8% points more. Yet won 26 seats less. -- Peace Is Doable -- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "Green Youth Movement" group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to greenyouth+unsubscr...@googlegroups.com. To post to this group, send an email to greenyouth@googlegroups.com. Visit this group at https://groups.google.com/group/greenyouth. 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