KN4LF Daily HF/MF Radio Propagation Outlook #2003-11 http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf5.htm
Standard Disclaimer- Note! I use "RAW" public domain data from the NOAA Space Environment Center, as well as other U.S. government organizations, to produce my "not for profit" propagation forecast outlooks. This data is gathered and made public by the U.S. Government using taxpayer $$$. However the forecast outlooks that I produce from the "RAW" public domain data, is my personal intellectual property. Therefore the propagation outlooks contained herein is copyrighted © 1988-2003 by Thomas F. Giella and the Florida Space And Atmospheric Weather Institute, all rights reserved. Reproduction of information herein is allowed as long as proper credit is given. Also space weather forecasting is still an inexact science. The discussions, forecasts and outlooks are not official but for educational purposes only and are subject to human error and acts of God, therefore no guarantee or warranty implied Date Format is YY/MM/DD Published Wednesday 03/09/01 At 1700 UTC PAST 24 HOUR SOLAR, SPACE WEATHER AND GEOMAGNETIC INDICES- Sunspot Groups- No sunspot groups current contain twisted magnetic fields capable of producing very large or huge M and X class solar flares. Solar Flux Readings- 111 110 108 Sunspot Number- 101 X-Ray Solar Flares- C-1 M-0 X-0 Averaged Background X-Ray Flux- B2.4 Energetic Protons >10 MeV (10+0)- None Geo-effective (Earth Facing) Coronal Mass Ejections (CME)- None Coronal Hole #054 which became geo-effective on 03/08/28 will began impacting the geo-magnetic field with active Kp-4 conditions on 03/09/01 at 0622 UTC. In the past 24 hour period the Ap index has been at unsettled levels, with a peak at 14. In the past 24 hour period the Kp index has been at active levels, with a peak at 4. Here are some general guidelines concerning correlation of propagation indices to actual expected HF/MF propagation conditions. 1.) Dropping indices numbers are better, except for solar flux on HF. 2.) For medium frequencies a solar flux under 150, under 100 better, 70 is best for E layer multi hop. Keep in mind though that the 10.7 cm (2800 mhz) solar flux index is not a "reliable" gauge of ionization in our atmosphere, as the energy of photons at this frequency is to low on the order of one million times. 2a.) For high frequencies a solar flux of 100 is okay, 150 better, above 200 best for F layer multi hop. 3.) Solar flux of at least 100 for E valley-F layer ducting mechanism. 4.) Previous 24 hour Ap index under 10, under 7 for several days consecutively is best. 5.) Previous 3 hour Kp index under 3 for mid latitude paths, under 2 for high latitude paths, 0-1 for several days consecutively is best. 6.) Energetic protons no greater then 10 MeV (10+0) for 160/120 meters and no greater then (10-1) on MF broadcast band. 7.) Background x-ray flux levels less than C1 for several days consecutively for 160/120 meters and less then B9 for MF broadcast band. 8.) No current STRATWARM alert. 9.) IMF Bz with a (+) positive sign, indicates a lesser chance of high latitude path auroral absorption/unpredictable refraction or scattering of MF RF signals, when the Kp is above 3. TODAY'S PROPAGATION LESSON- 3.) Coronal Mass Ejection (CME)- A Coronal Mass Ejection is the name given to an ejection of a large amount of matter from the Sun's outer atmosphere or corona. These ejections typically comprise millions of tons of material in the form of charged particles, and can be seen because the material reflects sunlight. When one of these ejections is directed towards the Earth (or conversely, directly away from the Earth), it looks like a roughly circular "halo" surrounding the Sun. The "Halo CME's" then are those CME's which are more likely to impact the Earth than those which are shot out at right angles to the Earth-Sun line. Energetic protons emitted during CME's play a major role in increased day time and night-time D-layer absorption of medium frequencies. Coronal Mass Ejections were once thought to be completely initiated by solar flares. However it is now known that many (CME's) are not associated with Solar Flares. If a (CME) collides with the Earth, it can excite a Geomagnetic Storm if the polarity of the IMF has a negative sign. We must be vigilant in watching for geo-effective (CME's), in order to not be caught by surprise with a seemingly sudden and unexpected Geomagnetic Storm. PROPAGATION OUTLOOK- We should see periods of active Kp-4 to minor storm Kp-5 geomagnetic conditions, with some moderate storm Kp-6 conditions possible. GLOBAL HF 3000-30000 KC PROPAGATION CONDITIONS EXPECTED- Low Latitude- Good Mid Latitude- Good High Latitude- Fair Becoming Poor GLOBAL MF 300-3000 KC PROPAGATION CONDITIONS EXPECTED- Expect fair then becoming poor "Northern Hemisphere" domestic propagation conditions on east-west paths. Expect fair then becoming poor domestic conditions on north "TO" south paths in the "Northern Hemisphere" out to approximately 1100 miles. Expect fair then becoming good domestic conditions on south "TO" north paths in the "Northern Hemisphere" out to approximately 1100 miles. Expect fair then becoming poor "Southern Hemisphere" domestic propagation conditions on east-west paths. Expect fair then becoming good domestic conditions on north "TO" south paths in the "Southern Hemisphere" out to approximately 1100 miles+ Expect fair then becoming poor conditions on south "TO" north paths in the "Southern Hemisphere" out to approximately 1100 miles. "High latitude" Northern Hemisphere (TA) Trans Atlantic, (TI) Trans Indian, (TP) Trans Pacific and cross equatorial propagation conditions in excess of approximately 3200 miles should be fair then becoming poor. "High latitude" Southern Hemisphere (TA) Trans Atlantic, (TI) Trans Indian, (TP) Trans Pacific and cross equatorial propagation conditions in excess of approximately 3200 miles should be fair then becoming poor. "Mid latitude" Northern Hemisphere (TA) Trans Atlantic, (TI) Trans Indian, (TP) Trans Pacific and cross equatorial propagation conditions in excess of approximately 3200 miles should be good then becoming fair. "Mid latitude" Southern Hemisphere (TA) Trans Atlantic, (TI) Trans Indian, (TP) Trans Pacific and cross equatorial propagation conditions in excess of approximately 3200 miles should be good then becoming fair. "Low latitude" Northern Hemisphere (TA) Trans Atlantic, (TI) Trans Indian, (TP) Trans Pacific propagation conditions in excess of approximately 3200 miles should be good. "Low latitude" Southern Hemisphere (TA) Trans Atlantic, (TI) Trans Indian, (TP) Trans Pacific propagation conditions in excess of approximately 3200 miles should be good. Propagation Forecast Scales- Excellent- +1 db Over S9 Or better Good- S7-9 Fair- S4-6 Poor- S1-3 NOISE (QRN) OUTLOOK- GLOBAL SATELLITE DERIVED LIGHTNING STRIKE DATA (See Where Your QRN Is Coming From) http://aviationweather.gov/gcd/graf/expconus.gif http://aviationweather.gov/gcd/graf/exptropical.gif During the 24 hour outlook period there will be "high" lightning induced QRN levels in low latitude areas of the Northern Hemisphere due to the proximity of the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) and tropical cyclones. Northern hemisphere mid latitude regions can expect "moderate to high" lightning induced QRN tied to summer season thunderstorms, cold/warm/occluded fronts and associated extra-tropical cold core low pressure systems and tropical cyclones. Northern hemisphere high latitude regions can expect "moderate" lightning induced QRN tied to summer season thunderstorms, cold/warm/occluded fronts and associated extra-tropical cold core low pressure systems. During the outlook period there will be "high" lightning induced QRN levels in low latitude areas of the Southern Hemisphere due to the proximity of the Inter Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) and tropical cyclones. Southern hemisphere mid latitude regions can expect "moderate" lightning induced QRN, tied to winter season thunderstorms cold/warm/occluded fronts and associated extra-tropical cold core low pressure systems. Southern hemisphere high latitude regions can expect "low" lightning induced QRN tied to winter season thunderstorms, cold/warm/occluded fronts and associated extra-tropical cold core low pressure systems. Space Weather Scales- Kp Indices- G5 = Extreme Storm - Kp = 9 G4 = Severe Storm - Kp = 8 G3 = Strong Storm - Kp = 7 G2 = Moderate Storm - Kp = 6 G1 = Minor Storm - Kp = 5 Active - Kp = 4 Unsettled - Kp = 3 Ap Indices- Ap 100-400 Severe Storm Ap 50-99 Major Storm Ap 30-49 Minor Storm Ap 16-29 Active Ap 8-15 Unsettled Ap 0-7 Quiet Correlation Of Kp To Ap Indices- K- 0= A- 0 K- 1= A- 3 K- 2= A- 7 K- 3= A- 15 K- 4= A- 27 K- 5= A- 48 K- 6= A- 80 K- 7= A- 140 K- 8= A- 240 K- 9= A- 400 73 & GUD DX, Thomas F. Giella, KN4LF Plant City, FL, USA KN4LF Daily Solar Space Weather & Geomagnetic Data Archive & Daily HF/MF Radio Propagation Outlook http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf5.htm KN4LF HF/MF Radio Propagation Theory Notes http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf8.htm KN4LF 160 Meter Amateur Radio Resources & More http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf.htm Florida Space & Atmospheric Weather Institute http://www.kn4lf.com/fsawi.htm --- Outgoing mail is certified Virus Free Thanks To Grisoft AVG. 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