----- Original Message ----- From: Michael Schwartz To: [EMAIL PROTECTED] Sent: Friday, December 16, 2005 6:46 AM Subject: Comments on the election
I think there is a lot of significance and a lot of smoke in the elections and, if I had the time to sort through everything, I would have a lot to say. But I am swamped at the moment and still can't see the structure inside the smoke. But ignorance never worked to keep my shut up, so here are a few things that I think are clear about the elections already, even before the returns come in and the serious reporting is digested. 1. Look for the U.S. discovery of torture jails to end, right now. The two big scandals in the last two weeks, in which the U.S. "raided" jails in which Ministry of Interior special forces were conducting torture, were publicity stunts. The U.S. created the special forces groups that were conducting the torture and running the jails, and every informed report says they knew about them all along, probably supervised the torture, and were the active force in creating and implementing the terrorist policies more generally. The reasons for the raids were..electoral. Even as he runs the Iraqi government, American Ambassador Khalilzad, and his American aides, are trying to restore Allawi to figurative power because they dislike both the independence and the pro-Iranian slant of the current leadership. These exposes were an attempt to impact Shia voting-to drive it toward Allawi and his allies. Now that the election is over, they will return to business (detention and torture) as usual. 2. Don't expect a decline in the fighting, on either side. Even a casual look at the Sunni voting reveals three things. First, that virtually all Sunnis (and the overwhelming majority of Shia as well) see these elections as a possible way to get the U.S. out of the country. All the major parties (except the Kurds) ran on such a platform, and public opinion (except the Kurds) runs at 80% in favor of the U.S. getting out as quickly as possible. By electing representatives with this viewpoint, Sunnis hope that they can accelerate the departure. Second, the guerrilla part of the resistance-which attacks the Occupation military and those who fight with it (and not Iraqi civilians)-has continued to attack Occupation military right through the campaign and even mounted 50 attacks (just below average ) on election day. They see the election as one way to put pressure and the attacks as another. Not at all incompatible with each other. Third, in the meantime, the U.S. continues to mount major search and destroy campaigns through centers of resistance, thus convincing Sunnis that the battle is still necessary and creating more and more people who have bitter experiences that justify guerrilla action. 3. Be on the look-out for the new Parliament to call for a timetable. This is the lowest common denominator among the various Sunni and Shia factions. Certainly the Sunni representatives will forward such a proposal, and they will be supported by the representatives of the Sadrists. So the big issue will be whether SCIRI and Da'wa (the dominant groups in the current government) will sell this demand out, as they did last time (They ran on immediate withdrawal in January and then immediately announced it was impractical). There are many reasons to suggest that they will sell out again; but just as many that they will not, this time (the most compelling being that the Sadrists are getting stronger and stronger, and that SCIRI and Da'wa have lost a lot of credibility on the street because of their failures to deliver even a smidgen of improvement since January). Whatever happens, this will be the most important thing this toothless government will do. 4. Don't expect the new government to accomplish anything beyond taking positions. It has no power-the power rests with the U.S. and with the resistance, and with the local leaders in the Shia areas. The government has no army (the Iraqi police and military are trained, commanded and supervised by the U.S.); it has no administration (all local administration, such as there is, in locally controlled by local leaders, militias, and/or the resistance, even in Shia areas); and it has no resources (the oil revenues are so small and so mortgaged that they borrow from the U.S. to run their meager administration). All this government can do is make pronouncements. That is why a call for U.S. withdrawal would be its most important act, because such a call would carry force from the threat of a mass protest if the U.S. refused. Enough. MS Director, Undergraduate College of Global Studies Professor of Sociology University at Stony Brook Stony Brook NY 11794 *** http://news.com.com/Senate+rebuffs+Bush+on+Patriot+Act/2100-1028_3-5998538.h tml CNET December 16, 2005 Senate rebuffs Bush on Patriot Act Handing a stiff rebuke to President Bush, the U.S. Senate on Friday refused to end the filibuster that is blocking a four-year extension of the Patriot Act. By Declan McCullagh In a 52-to-47 vote, the Senate failed to reach the 60-person majority required to cut off a filibuster and force a vote on the Republican-backed extension of the portions of the controversial law that are set to expire on Dec. 31. The vote makes it more likely that lawmakers will enact an alternate proposal, backed by critics of the Patriot Act, that would extend those 16 sections for only three months. That would yield additional time for negotiations when senators return from their holiday vacation in January. "The leaders of this Congress need to figure out a way to change this (legislation) to address the important civil liberties issues that I and other Senators from both sides of the aisle have discussed over the past three days," said Sen. Russ Feingold, a Wisconsin Democrat, who was the lone dissenter when the Senate approved the original Patriot Act a month after the Sept. 11, 2001 attacks. Earlier, Bush and his Republican allies claimed that national security was at stake, unless lawmakers renewed the Patriot Act without reforms. These reforms would increase oversight of and include some limitations on how the law's surveillance powers can be used. An article in The New York Times on Friday gave critics of the law additional ammunition. It revealed that in 2002, Bush secretly authorized the National Security Agency to eavesdrop on Americans without seeking court-approved warrants. Bush and Attorney General Alberto Gonzales had fiercely lobbied for a four-year extension of the Patriot Act without the reforms that critics had demanded. Among the 16 sections scheduled to expire are ones that expanded secret methods the FBI can use to obtain business records; authorized more information-sharing between Internet service providers and police; and listed computer hacking as an offense permitting increased eavesdropping. On Wednesday, the House of Representatives approved the four-year extension by a 251-to-174 vote. A fluid coalition of senators had pressed for reforms. Those included Patrick Leahy of Vermont and fellow Democrats Richard Durbin of Illinois, Carl Levin of Michigan, Edward Kennedy of Massachusetts, John Rockefeller of West Virginia, Debbie Stabenow of Michigan, and Kenneth Salazar of Colorado. The Republicans include John Sununu of New Hampshire, Lisa Murkowski of Alaska, Chuck Hagel of Nebraska, and Larry Craig of Idaho. ------------------------ Yahoo! Groups Sponsor --------------------~--> Help save the life of a child. Support St. Jude Children's Research Hospital. http://us.click.yahoo.com/f4eSOB/lbOLAA/E2hLAA/7gSolB/TM --------------------------------------------------------------------~-> --------------------------------------------------------------------------- LAAMN: Los Angeles Alternative Media Network --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Unsubscribe: <mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED]> --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Subscribe: <mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED]> --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Digest: <mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED]> --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Help: <mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED]> --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Post: <mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED]> --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Archive1: <http://www.egroups.com/messages/laamn> --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Archive2: <http://www.mail-archive.com/[EMAIL PROTECTED]> --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Yahoo! Groups Links <*> To visit your group on the web, go to: http://groups.yahoo.com/group/laamn/ <*> To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to: [EMAIL PROTECTED] <*> Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to: http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
