http://angryarab.blogspot.com/2012/03/iranian-elections.html Iranian elections <http://angryarab.blogspot.com/2012/03/iranian-elections.html> So in the Iranian elections, voters are permitted to choose from a group of clerical fanatics and another group of clerical fanatics. What a choice.
Posted by As'ad AbuKhalil http://www.juancole.com/2012/03/khamenei-takes-control-forbids-nuclear-bomb.html *Khamenei Takes Control, Forbids Nuclear Bomb*<http://www.juancole.com/2012/03/khamenei-takes-control-forbids-nuclear-bomb.html> Posted on 03/04/2012 by Juan Early returns in Irans 9th parliamentary election since the 1979 revolution show that Ahmadinejads lay populists have taken a drubbing<http://www.usnews.com/news/world/articles/2012/03/03/ahmadinejad-rivals-rack-up-parliament-wins-in-iran>, and that hard line supporters of clerical Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei are ascendant. Ahmadinejads sister, Parvin, who stood for election from their own hometown of Garmsar, was defeated, a major blow to the president. Western reporters keep saying that the parliamentary results have no implication for Irans nuclear program. But they only say this because they either dont pay attention to what Iranian leaders actually say, or discount their statements as lies (treating them much less respectfully than they treated notorious fraud Andrew Breitbart in their fluffy obituaries last week). A week and a half ago, Khamenei gave a major foreign policy speech<http://www.presstv.ir/detail/228014.html>in which he said, The Iranian nation has never pursued and will never pursue nuclear weapons. There is no doubt that the decision makers in the countries opposing us know well that Iran is not after nuclear weapons because the Islamic Republic, logically, religiously and theoretically, considers the possession of nuclear weapons a grave sin and believes the proliferation of such weapons is senseless, destructive and dangerous. Now, you could maintain that Khamenei is lying when he says he holds that possessing nuclear weapons is a grave sin. (You could also maintain that the Popes are lying when they say using birth control is a grave matter, but youd have to explain why they put their papal authority on the line for a lie they werent forced to utter). But even if you think it is a lie, you have at least to *report what he says*. I guarantee you that Khameneis speech opposing nukes was not so much as mentioned on any of the major American news broadcasts. Khamenei has also repeatedly said that Iran has a no first strike policy, that it will not fire the first shot in any conflict. And if you hold that Khamenei, as a leading clerical authority, is being dishonest on this issue, then surely you should offer some proof. Perhaps he has flip-flopped over time? But no. Here is Khamenei<http://www.juancole.com/2010/02/khamenei-again-decries-nukes-as-illegal.html>in 2010: We have said repeatedly that our religious beliefs and principles prohibit such weapons as they are the symbol of destruction of generations. And for this reason we do not believe in weapons and atomic bombs and do not seek them. Or 2009, when Khamenei said<http://www.juancole.com/2009/09/khamenei-we-fundamentally-reject.html> , They (Western countries) falsely accuse the Islamic republics establishment of producing nuclear weapons. We fundamentally reject nuclear weapons and prohibit the use and production of nuclear weapons. This is because of our ideology, not because of politics or fear of arrogant powers or an onslaught of international propaganda. We stand firm for our ideology. I could go on providing the same sort of quotes going back years. It seems to me that one implication of pro-Khamenei hard liners dominating parliament is that the Supreme Leaders authority has been enhanced. And he is deploying his authority to forbid the acquisition of a nuclear warhead. Warmongers attempting to drag the United States into yet another ruinous (or, rather, infinitely more ruinous) war in the Middle East have typically focused their propaganda on the person of President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. The president, now nearing the end of his second and last term, is easy to ridicule and easy to demonize, because of his quirky personality and colorful gaffes. He has been called a Hitler by Rick Santorum, and the Neoconservatives depict him as a madman bent on bringing the world to an end. (Ahmadinejad, unlike most establishment Shiite clerics, thinks that the Muslim promised one or Mahdi will come soon, and this millenarian belief has been taken advantage of by Neocons, who inaccurately allege that the belief could push the president to support apocalyptic policies.) It has been alleged that Ahmadinejad is a mass-murdering hard liner, seeking nuclear weapons with which to destroy Israel. This puzzling emphasis on Ahmadinejad comes despite the presidents relative lack of power in the Iranian system. The commander in chief of the armed forces is Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. Who sets nuclear policy? Ali Khamenei. In Iran, the president is more like a vice president (think Joe Biden) than a real executive. Ahmadinejad could not even fire an intelligence minister (Haidar Moslehi) he disliked<http://www.aljazeera.com/news/middleeast/2011/05/201156113955925329.html>last spring. Khamenei reinstated him. Ahmadinejad sulked and wouldnt attend cabinet meetings for a while, but eventually got over himself. Hitler indeed. Just last month, even the old parliament voted to make Ahmadinejad appear before the legislature to explain his economic policies<http://www.alarabiya.net/articles/2012/02/07/193231.html>, the first time a president has been interpellated by parliament in the Islamic Republic. Some in parliament have even spoken of impeaching Ahmadinejad, which theyd be in a position to do after these elections. So, to conclude: Ahmadinejad is not very much like Hitler. He cant give an order to the Iranian military independently of Khamenei, who can over-rule him at will. He cant make his own pick of cabinet ministers, and so cant build up an independent power base. He has been threatened by parliament. His party lost the 2012 elections big time. His own sister couldnt win a seat in their home town. He is a lame duck. So there is no point in demonizing him, or pretending he has an atomic bomb, or that he would be the one to deploy a bomb if Iran possessed one, which it does not. For the Neoconservatives, the jig is up. Khameneis hand has been significantly strengthened. And he has signalled to the Iranian people yet again that he wont use that strength for belligerent purposes or to pursue a nuclear warhead, which the Iranian ayatollahs consider a tool of the devil since you cant deploy it without killing large numbers of civilian non-combatants. That these developments can be commented on in Western media without Khameneis speech being mentioned or it being noted that he strongly opposes nukes is baffling. --------------------------------------- The Latest from Iran (4 March): The Play-Acting of the Election<http://www.enduringamerica.com/home/2012/3/4/the-latest-from-iran-4-march-the-play-acting-of-the-election.html> inShare*2* [image: Date]Sunday, March 4, 2012 at 15:38 | [image: Author]Scott Lucas<http://www.enduringamerica.com/home/author/scott-lucas> in [image: Category]EA Iran<http://www.enduringamerica.com/home/category/ea-iran>, [image: Category]Middle East and Iran<http://www.enduringamerica.com/home/category/middle-east-and-iran> <https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=228002967296392&set=a.102224103207613.4436.100002600709871&type=1&ref=nf> *A spoiled ballot in Friday's Parliamentary election, "Death to this rotten regime that forces me to vote for a stamp in my ID card!"* *See also Iran Snap Analysis: Rearranging the Political Chairs --- What Has Changed?<http://www.enduringamerica.com/home/2012/3/4/iran-snap-analysis-rearranging-the-political-chairs-what-has.html> Iran Elections Snapshot: The #1 Subversive Moment "They're All the Same"<http://www.enduringamerica.com/home/2012/3/4/iran-elections-snapshot-the-1-subversive-moment-theyre-all-t.html> Iran Special Analysis: The "Invented" Election<http://www.enduringamerica.com/home/2012/3/3/iran-special-analysis-the-invented-election.html> Iran Opinion: Elections, Power, and Political War in Tehran<http://www.enduringamerica.com/home/2012/3/3/iran-opinion-elections-power-and-political-war-in-tehran.html> The Latest from Iran (3 March): After the Vote<http://www.enduringamerica.com/home/2012/3/3/the-latest-from-iran-3-march-after-the-vote.html> * ------------------------------ 1945 GMT: Ahmadinejad Watch. An EA correspondent adds context for our entries today considering whether Parliament, after this week's vote, will interrogate the President (see 0740 and 1340 GMT): "Ahmadinejad could be questioned by the outgoing Parliament, which still be operation for a month or two after the elections." And will that happen? The correspondent replies, "It's really tough to say." 1645 GMT: Kentucky Fried Chicken Watch. Last month, we reported on the claim of Iranian businessman, denied by Kentucky Fried Chicken, that they had opened a KFC franchise<http://www.enduringamerica.com/home/2012/2/26/iran-snapshot-kentucky-fried-chicken-or-no-kentucky-fried-ch.html>in Karaj, near Tehran, and would soon be selling Colonel Sanders' chicken in the capital and other cities. The Ministry of Culture and Islamic Guidance is not impressed: it has prohibited <http://www.peykeiran.com/Content.aspx?ID=45396> the display of the KFC brand on shops and restaurants. 1640 GMT: Currency Watch. *Shargh* notes that the Iranian Rial is falling again versus the US dollar<http://sharghnewspaper.ir/News/90/12/14/26236.html>. On Saturday, the Rial was 19400:1 against the dollar, a fall of about 1.5% from Friday. The Central Bank's official rate is 12260 Rials to the dollar. 1620 GMT: Elections Watch. *Fars* has posted provisional complete results<http://farsnews.com/newstext.php?nn=13901214001233>from the first-round Parliamentary vote in Tehran. Only five candidates have passed the 25% threshold for election. Former Speaker of Parliament Gholam Ali Haddad Adel (Unity Front/Constancy Front) led the vote, followed by former Minister of Health Alireza Marandi (Unity Front/Constancy Front), Deputy Speaker of Parliament Mohammad Hassan Abutorabi-Fard (Unity Front), prominent cleric Morteza Agha Tehrani (Unity Front/Constancy Front), and former Minister of Oil Masoud Mirkazemi (Constancy Front). Ahmad Tavakoli and Ali Motahari, both prominent critics of the President, narrowly missed election and will have to go to a second round next month<http://radiozamaneh.com/english/content/tehran-will-see-second-round-elections>, where the remaining 25 MPs will be chosen. Those in some trouble after the first ballot include Deputy Speaker of Parliament Mohammad Reza Bahonar (26th), leading conservative Asadollah Badamchian (39th), and Hamidreza Katouzian, the head of the Energy Committee (55th). These candidates, an EA candidate notes, might need some "doctoring" of results to make it back to the Majlis. The official figures will be released tomorrow. 1525 GMT: Occupy Watch. For months, regime propaganda has expressed solidarity with the "American Awakening" of the Occupy Wall Street protests in the US while explaining that these mark an end to the American system. Authorities have held a conference to extol these themes. There was a complication, however; visiting American academics said "some Iranian professors and experts have totally misunderstood<http://www.rahesabz.net/story/50137/>" the Occupy movement. 1354 GMT: Rafsanjani Watch. Former President Hashemi Rafsanjani, unsurprisingly, is receiving a bit of regime criticism<http://www.rahesabz.net/story/50140/>for his Friday statement as he voted, "God willing, the election result is what the people want and what they place in the ballot boxes." *Fars* attacked Rafsanjani's declaration, which many have seen as a reference to fraud in elections such as the Presidential ballot of 2009, as "ambiguous". 1347 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Lawyer Abdolfattah Soltani has been sentenced <http://www.rahana.org/archives/48374> to 18 years in prison and Borazjan in southwestern Iran. Soltani is charged with propaganda against the regime, establishing the Center for Defenders of Human Rights Center, and assembly and collusion against the. One of the "crimes"<http://persianbanoo.wordpress.com/2012/03/04/iran-sentences-hr-lawyer-abdolfatah-soltani-to-18-years-in-prison-and-20-years-barred-from-practice/>is that he accepted a human rights award<http://www.nuernberg.de/internet/menschenrechte_e/soltani_e.html>from the city of Nuremberg in Germany, earning "illegal income". 1340 GMT: Ahmadinejad Watch. Hojatoleslam Ali Asgari of Parliament's Strategic Research Center has claimed that the President's policies have ruined industry <http://etedaal.ir/news/23421/default.aspx>. Asgari said that "pious, brave MPs" in Parliament would insist on questioning Ahmadinejad and impeaching him if his answers are not convincing. However, Asgari suspected --- in line with EA's analysis (see 0740 GMT) --- that the process could be canceled in the new Majlis. 1230 GMT: Elections Watch. *Khabar Online* posts the names of the 163 candidates <http://www.khabaronline.ir/detail/202073/politics/election> who have made it to the 290-member Parliament in the first round of voting. One notable name is Alaeedin Boroujerdi, the head of the National Security Committee --- he has been under pressure because of alleged links to the $2.6 billion bank fraud. Reviewing the list, *Tabnak* doubts that there will be a "united principlist faction"<http://www.tabnak.ir/fa/news/230991/%DA%A9%D8%AF%D8%A7%D9%85-%DA%A9%D8%A7%D9%86%D8%AF%DB%8C%D8%AF%D8%A7%D9%87%D8%A7-%D8%A7%D8%B2-%DA%AF%D8%B1%D9%88%D9%87-%D9%87%D8%A7%DB%8C-%D8%B3%DB%8C%D8%A7%D8%B3%DB%8C-%D8%A8%D9%87-%D9%85%D8%AC%D9%84%D8%B3-%D9%86%D9%87%D9%85-%D8%B1%D8%A7%D9%87-%DB%8C%D8%A7%D9%81%D8%AA%D9%86%D8%AF-%D8%AC%D8%AF%D9%88%D9%84>in Parliament, bolstering our analysis<http://www.enduringamerica.com/home/2012/3/4/iran-snap-analysis-rearranging-the-political-chairs-what-has.html>that the Supreme Leader was seeking a weak Majlis with a "mish-mash" of factions. At the same time, *Tabnak* adds a significant note that we did not expect. It claims 78 of the 160 candidates affiliated to the Steadfastness Front, have been voted into Parliament<http://www.tabnak.ir/fa/news/230876/78-%D9%86%D9%81%D8%B1-%D8%A7%D8%B2-%DA%A9%D8%A7%D9%86%D8%AF%DB%8C%D8%AF%D8%A7%D9%87%D8%A7%DB%8C-%D8%AC%D8%A8%D9%87%D9%87-%D8%A7%DB%8C%D8%B3%D8%AA%D8%A7%D8%AF%DA%AF%DB%8C-%D9%88%D8%A7%D8%B1%D8%AF-%D9%85%D8%AC%D9%84%D8%B3-%D8%B4%D8%AF%D9%86%D8%AF> . The Steadfastness Front, which has been overshadowed by the Unity Front and the rival Islamic Constancy Front, arose as a group with links to Mohsen Rezaei, the Secretary of the Expediency Council and 2009 Presidential candidate. The news should be accompanied with the proviso that some of the candidates of the Steadfastness Front, such as Speaker of Parliament Ali Larijani, are also on other lists. 0855 GMT: Budget Watch. Economist Mohammad Ali Khateeb warns that, if oil sales to European countries are not replaced by exports to other customers, there will be a deficit in the Government's budget<http://www.ilna.ir/newstext.aspx?ID=247480>for 2012/13. On 23 January, the European Union agreed to ban imports of Iranian oil, effective 1 July. 0845 GMT: Elections Watch. ILNA reports that no candidate in Tehran<http://www.ilna.ir/newsText.aspx?ID=247674>has reached the necessary 25% threshold to take a seat in Parliament. That includes former Speaker of Parliament Gholam Ali Haddad Adel, who tops the vote. If this is true, all 30 Tehran MPs will be chosen in a second-round ballot. 0840 GMT: All the President's Men. *Tehran Emrooz* highlights the political resurrection<http://www.peykeiran.com/userfiles/image/Newspapers/0_rooz_5/_rooz_12_3_4_6.jpg>of Saeed Mortazavi, the Presidential aide who has been named to head the Social Security Fund. Mortazavi was formally suspended from his duties by a court because, as Tehran Prosecutor General in summer 2009, he allegedly was responsible for the abuses and the deaths at the Kahrizak detention centre. However, he has never been prosecuted, and now, as *Tehran Emrooz* frames it, "he takes over the biggest economic institution of the country". 0740 GMT: We should get the final scenes in the first round of the Parliamentary election today. Press TV announces that 163 candidates have reached the 290-member Majlis, with the rest of the seats to be allocated in a second round of voting in less than two weeks. There are no details in the article, but we already know many of the names. So we post an analysis, "Rearranging the Political Chairs --- What Has Changed?<http://www.enduringamerica.com/home/2012/3/4/iran-snap-analysis-rearranging-the-political-chairs-what-has.html>", which evaluates the show: *Let's not make a drama of this. While the Islamic Republic's system is far too complex to reduce it to the plaything of the Supreme Leader, "stability" --- if not legitimacy --- lay in an arrangement in which he and his circle could be assured that they would not face trouble from a President, Parliament, or judiciary. * Ahmadinejad, provided he accepts that he has been curbed, will be able to serve out the last year of his term in this non-drama. He will not be impeached, and he may not face questioning in the new Parliament. An EA correspondent notes that 58 of the 79 MPs<http://www.khabaronline.ir/detail/202011/politics/parliament>who signed the petition to interrogate the President will not be in the new Parliament --- 27 did not run or were disqualified, while 31 lost their contests. Only ten of the 79 have won so far, with 10 more awaiting their fate. 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