UT1 confidence

2007-01-17 Thread Zefram
IERS Bulletin A gives an expression for the uncertainty of its UT1-UTC data predictions: S t = 0.00025 (MJD-today)**0.75 where today is the MJD of the bulletin's publication. The Bulletin only predicts a year ahead. Applying that formula gives an uncertainty a year ahead of 21 ms. It

Re: UT1 confidence

2007-01-17 Thread Poul-Henning Kamp
In message [EMAIL PROTECTED], Zefram writes: IERS Bulletin A gives an expression for the uncertainty of its UT1-UTC data predictions: S t = 0.00025 (MJD-today)**0.75 where today is the MJD of the bulletin's publication. The Bulletin only predicts a year ahead. Applying that formula

Re: UT1 confidence

2007-01-17 Thread Warner Losh
In message [EMAIL PROTECTED], Zefram writes: IERS Bulletin A gives an expression for the uncertainty of its UT1-UTC data predictions: S t = 0.00025 (MJD-today)**0.75 where today is the MJD of the bulletin's publication. The Bulletin only predicts a year ahead. Applying that

Re: UT1 confidence

2007-01-17 Thread Steve Allen
On Wed 2007-01-17T12:31:14 -0700, Warner Losh hath writ: It has been remarked that the current state of the art is that 100ms accuracy can be predicted about a year in advance only and that the models are constantly undergoing refinement. It has been estimated that IERS could issue leap

Re: UT1 confidence

2007-01-17 Thread M. Warner Losh
Steve, thank you for this enlightening report. In message: [EMAIL PROTECTED] Steve Allen [EMAIL PROTECTED] writes: : On Wed 2007-01-17T12:31:14 -0700, Warner Losh hath writ: : It has been remarked that the current state of the art is that 100ms : accuracy can be predicted about a