Re: [LINK] Flash drives in the sea?
On 07/05/14 09:48, Jim Birch wrote: My feeling would be that the vast majority of air accidents occur due to deviations from accepted best practice, eg, pilot error. Have you never watched the Air Crash Investigation TV show? Type it into youtube. -andyf ___ Link mailing list Link@mailman.anu.edu.au http://mailman.anu.edu.au/mailman/listinfo/link
Re: [LINK] Flash drives in the sea?
$quoted_author = Jeremy Visser ; On 7 May 2014, at 18:13, Andy Farkas an...@andyit.com.au wrote: On 07/05/14 09:48, Jim Birch wrote: My feeling would be that the vast majority of air accidents occur due to deviations from accepted best practice, eg, pilot error. Have you never watched the Air Crash Investigation TV show? Type it into youtube. I think your intention was to contradict the above, but anecdotally most episodes that I have see depict pilot error or some other human error (e.g. procedure not followed) as the cause rather than mechanical failure. What they usually show is that: - there is almost always a confluence of multiple problems, any of which individually would have been relatively harmless - that the interaction between man and machine is complex and what seems obvious to the designer of a system does not carry over so well into times of stress - that the levels of automation present in current generation aircraft are reducing the hands on time that pilots get and making the time they do harder to understand through their assistance and their modes (e.g. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Flight_control_modes and the impact of a switch to alternate law in the AF447 crash) This is a great talk on this kind of thing http://fractio.nl/2013/05/15/escalating-complexity-af447/ cheers Marty ___ Link mailing list Link@mailman.anu.edu.au http://mailman.anu.edu.au/mailman/listinfo/link
Re: [LINK] Flash drives in the sea?
On Wed, Apr 30, 2014 at 10:35 PM, Jim Birch planet...@gmail.com wrote: It seems unlikely that any retrofit to would be justified in terms of opportunity costs for improving flight safety. http://www.theverge.com/2014/5/6/5686572/easa-black-box-upgrade-proposal --- 5 inShare The notoriously cost-sensitive air travel industry will have to upgrade its standard flight recorder equipment if new rules proposed in Europe are adopted. Published todayhttp://easa.europa.eu/newsroom-and-events/news/easa-publishes-new-proposals-flight-recorders-and-locating-devicesby the European Aviation Safety Agency (EASA), these require an extension of the minimum signal broadcasting time of Underwater Locating Devices (ULDs) from 30 to 90 days, giving search and rescue teams more time to do their jobs, as well as a longer locating range. Additionally, the current minimum of two hours of cockpit audio recordinghttp://www.theverge.com/2014/3/28/5556812/black-boxes-are-drowning-in-red-tapewould be extended to 20 hours, covering the full duration of most flights in and out of the continent. The Cockpit Voice Recorder (CVR) regulation would come into effect from the beginning of 2019, along with a prescription that it does not record to obsolete magnetic wire or tape. --- FC -- During times of Universal Deceit, telling the truth becomes a revolutionary act Durante épocas de Engaño Universal, decir la verdad se convierte en un Acto Revolucionario - George Orwell ___ Link mailing list Link@mailman.anu.edu.au http://mailman.anu.edu.au/mailman/listinfo/link
Re: [LINK] Flash drives in the sea?
Yep. It seems almost trivial to upgrade the memory in a the voice and data recorders to current memory capabilities. Likewise, battery technology has moved along. However, as I said It seems unlikely that any retrofit to would be justified in terms of opportunity costs for improving flight safety. Black boxes only improve safety indirectly by providing data that may - or may not - change aircraft design, pilot training or practices. My feeling would be that the vast majority of air accidents occur due to deviations from accepted best practice, eg, pilot error. The low hanging fruit is long gone. However, there is still a psychological need to not have large important objects disappear without explanation. Cheers Jim ___ Link mailing list Link@mailman.anu.edu.au http://mailman.anu.edu.au/mailman/listinfo/link
Re: [LINK] Flash drives in the sea?
Glen sensibly writes, When so much is connected to the Internet, why is the aerospace industry using technology that predates fax machines to look for flash drives in the sea? That is to focus on the device rather than on the system. For sure planes could send data continuously. But just consider the systems integration aspects of that ... Yes, the problem starts not with planes, but with the satellites that track them. While technology for communicating from the ground has advanced rapidly in the last 40 years, technology for communicating from the sky has been stuck in the 1970s. The Sentinel-1A satellite, for example, can only store the same amount of data as seven iPhones. When was this relic from the age of mainframe computers sent into orbit? On April 3. Huge, expensive, rocket-launched satellites with little computing power may make sense for broadcasting, where one satellite sends one signal to lots of things (such as television sets) but they are generally too expensive and not intelligent enough to be part of the Internet, where lots of things (such as airplanes) would send lots of signals to one satellite. This is why most satellites only reflect TV signals, take pictures of the Earth, or send the signals that drive GPS systems. It is also the reason airplanes can’t stream flight and location data like they stream vapor trails: cellphone and Wi-Fi signals don’t reach the ground from 30,000 feet, so airplanes need to be able to send information to satellites — satellites that, as well as being unable to handle network data economically, are also designed to talk to rotating, dish-shaped antennas that would be impossible to retrofit to airplanes. The solution to these problems is simple: We need new satellite technology. And it’s arriving. Wealthy private investors and brilliant young engineers are dragging satellites into the 21st century with inventions including “flocks” of “nanosatellites” that weigh as little as three pounds; flat, thin antennas built from advanced substances called “metamaterials”; and “beamforming,” which steers radio signals using software. On Jan. 9, a San Francisco-based start-up called Planet Labs sent a flock of 28 nanosatellites into space. The first application for this type of technology is taking pictures of the Earth, but it could also be used to receive data streaming from aircraft retrofitted with those new, flat “metamaterial” antennas. There are many other possible systems. Dozens of new satellite technologies are emerging, with countless ways to combine them. Streaming data from planes is about to become cheap and easy. The satellite revolution is not just about airplanes. David Cowan, a venture capitalist who is on the board of Skybox Imaging, a manufacturer of 220-pound “microsatellites,” calls the big picture “planetary awareness.” Combining data from sensors on satellite networks with information from things like phones, cars and planes will give us a comprehensive, constantly updating picture of the world. Everybody will be able to see everything from crops growing to traffic jamming to armies invading to icecaps melting. Vanishing airplanes will be a thing of the past. Today’s big aerospace companies may not embrace this revolution unprompted. Seeing satellites as network computers and airplanes as nodes that communicate with them requires a new mind-set. Airlines, airplane makers and regulators are feeling perplexed and defensive about the public outcry over their inability to know where their planes are and whether something is wrong with them. One industry insider told me, “There’s no cost-effective justification for streaming data from aircraft. What would you do if you had the information?” One of the many things you would do: You would never again put the families of 239 people though an agony of uncertainty as you searched for an airplane that flew itself for hours until it ran out of gas and crashed into the sea. Ref: http://www.nytimes.com/2014/04/29/opinion/finding-a-flash-drive-in-the-sea.html? -- Cheers, Stephen. ___ Link mailing list Link@mailman.anu.edu.au http://mailman.anu.edu.au/mailman/listinfo/link
Re: [LINK] Flash drives in the sea?
At 7:09 + 1/5/14, Stephen Loosley wrote: ... flocks of nanosatellites that weigh as little as three pounds; ... a flock of 28 nanosatellites ... ... 220-pound microsatellites ... ... Vanishing airplanes will be a thing of the past. ... But maybe vanishing satellites will be more common, thanks to congestion. http://www.nytimes.com/2014/04/29/opinion/finding-a-flash-drive-in-the-sea.html? -- Roger Clarke http://www.rogerclarke.com/ Xamax Consultancy Pty Ltd 78 Sidaway St, Chapman ACT 2611 AUSTRALIA Tel: +61 2 6288 6916http://about.me/roger.clarke mailto:roger.cla...@xamax.com.auhttp://www.xamax.com.au/ Visiting Professor in the Faculty of LawUniversity of N.S.W. Visiting Professor in Computer ScienceAustralian National University ___ Link mailing list Link@mailman.anu.edu.au http://mailman.anu.edu.au/mailman/listinfo/link
Re: [LINK] Flash drives in the sea?
On Tue, 29 Apr 2014, Stephen Loosley wrote: When so much is connected to the Internet, why is the aerospace industry using technology that predates fax machines to look for flash drives in the sea? That is to focus on the device rather than on the system. For sure planes could send data continuously. But just consider the systems integration aspects of that. Firstly, the black box cabling has to be duplicated, without threatening the integrity of the black box. Secondly there has to be antennas at multiple attitudes on the aircraft (as we want it to work when the plane is out of a normal attitude). Multiple antennas implies multiple transmitters. And transmitters imply power and contol cabling, to areas where no cabling had been planned. And antennas imply changes to the airflow over the aircraft, which have to be modelled; and changes to fuselage inspection. And before you know it a handwaving idea is a considerable design and refit in practice. In the case of MH370 it wouldn't have helped at all. The transmitter would have been turned off with the other aircraft position reporting systems. The only reason MH370 maintained contact with Inmarsat is that the pilot-in-command (whether the pilot paid by the airline or some interloper) had no knowledge of that aspect of the Inmarsat terminal's operation. Oh, it shouldn't be able to be turned off? Well given the odds of fire being started by cabling plant doesn't that present issues of its own? And does it really run 24x7? And how is maintenance done? I am not saying this is impossible. I am saying that to characterise a black box as a flash drive is to miss the items which cause the design hassle. -glen -- Glen Turner http://www.gdt.id.au/~gdt/ ___ Link mailing list Link@mailman.anu.edu.au http://mailman.anu.edu.au/mailman/listinfo/link
Re: [LINK] Flash drives in the sea?
On Tue, Apr 29, 2014 at 7:50 AM, Jan Whitaker jw...@internode.on.net wrote: Good question. Answer: the same reason they didn't switch to long-life batteries after the French crash in the Atlantic - cost. Most airlines are broke and running on the smell of an oily rag. Add anything to the cost that isn't required by regulation and they freak out. Flight MH370 mystery prompts call to modernize tracking technology http://share.d-news.co/UOee2SU FAA gave Boeing and the airlines THREE YEARS to install two light bulbs for extra safety... In March 2011, the Federal Aviation Administration in the United States released an airworthiness directive requiring all Boeing 737 aircraft from −100 to −500 models to be fitted with two additional cockpit warning lights. These would indicate problems with take-off configuration or pressurization. Aircraft on the United States civil register were required to have the additional lights by 14 March 2014 Yes, three years for two bulbs on each plane. Makes me want to setup a donations web site for the poor Boeing and the USA airlines. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Helios_Airways_Flight_522#Subsequent_developments FC -- During times of Universal Deceit, telling the truth becomes a revolutionary act - George Orwell ___ Link mailing list Link@mailman.anu.edu.au http://mailman.anu.edu.au/mailman/listinfo/link
Re: [LINK] Flash drives in the sea?
On Wed, Apr 30, 2014 at 9:59 AM, Fernando Cassia fcas...@gmail.com wrote: FAA gave Boeing and the airlines THREE YEARS to install two light bulbs for extra safety... In March 2011, the Federal Aviation Administration in the United States released an airworthiness directive requiring all Boeing 737 aircraft from −100 to −500 models to be fitted with two additional cockpit warning lights. These would indicate problems with take-off configuration or pressurization. Aircraft on the United States civil register were required to have the additional lights by 14 March 2014 For starters, you are understating the actual work included (for at least some planes it's more than just 2 lights), but lets let that one slide... If you actually read the Airwirthiness directive, you'll see it states : *Boeing Alert Service Bulletin 737-31A1325, dated January 11, 2010, specifies an estimate of * *32.5 work-hours to do the modification. Continental declared that it has historically found that * *Boeing estimates given in service bulletins are unachievable. Continental believed it would be * *possible to accomplish the modification in approximately 50 work hours, if the modification * *is done during a heavy maintenance visit.* 40+ hours, times the 3000 of these planes built (ok, not all are still in service, but even so) is a fairly non-trivial amount of work - and a lot of downtime for planes that would never otherwise sit idle for even 12 hours except during planned maintenance. The FAA normally gives 3-5 years for such directives as it fits in with the airlines existing maintenance schedules. I don't know if anyone has done the math, but I wouldn't be surprised to find out that for a change like this where the gain was relatively minor, that doing it outside of a regular maintenance program actually had an increased risk to safety over not doing the change at all! Yes, three years for two bulbs on each plane. Makes me want to setup a donations web site for the poor Boeing and the USA airlines. For the US airlines I'm sure that would be welcome, given that many of them either are in, or have recently been in, Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection. Scott ___ Link mailing list Link@mailman.anu.edu.au http://mailman.anu.edu.au/mailman/listinfo/link
Re: [LINK] Flash drives in the sea?
On Wed, Apr 30, 2014 at 2:27 PM, Scott Howard sc...@doc.net.au wrote: For starters, you are understating the actual work included (for at least some planes it's more than just 2 lights), but lets let that one slide... If you actually read the Airwirthiness directive, you'll see it states : Boeing Alert Service Bulletin 737-31A1325, dated January 11, 2010, Are we talking about the same bulletin? You quote one dated 2010, the one referenced is 2011-3-14. http://avherald.com/h?article=43778c6b In any case, you might have a point, yet I prefer this readers' comment on the above bulletin: /// Maybe not too little but definitely too late By Sakeb on Tuesday, Feb 8th 2011 19:32Z 3 years before compliance becomes mandatory... And 6 years after the accident. The saying goes that aviation laws are written in blood and this is obviously in response to Helios 522 flight but in the 9 years it will take to implement this, most of the jurrasic and classic 737s will be gone. 741 flying jets (in the US alone) are over 80,000 unsafe seats used by half a million passengers everyday and the risk of pressurization issues goes up with age. Weighing that risk against the minor 3.3 million cost of fleetwide update should be a no brainer but this money is the only thing that the relaxed implementation period of this AD will eventually save. /// FC ___ Link mailing list Link@mailman.anu.edu.au http://mailman.anu.edu.au/mailman/listinfo/link
Re: [LINK] Flash drives in the sea?
On Wed, Apr 30, 2014 at 10:57 AM, Fernando Cassia fcas...@gmail.com wrote: Are we talking about the same bulletin? You quote one dated 2010, the one referenced is 2011-3-14. http://avherald.com/h?article=43778c6b Yes. If you click on the directive in that entry you'll see the text I quoted. 741 flying jets (in the US alone) are over 80,000 unsafe seats used by half a million passengers everyday and the risk of pressurization issues goes up with age. Weighing that risk against the minor 3.3 million cost of fleetwide update should be a no brainer but this money is the only thing that the relaxed implementation period of this AD will eventually save. Except that $3.3 million isn't the real number. It doesn't take into account the time the aircraft are unavailable, nor does it take into account that there potentially aren't sufficient staff/etc available to carry out the work without impacting other maintenance, which could obviously have a flow-on effect. At the end of the day, the event that triggered this came down to a crew misinterpreting an alarm. This isn't a fault with the aircraft, and thus the fix wasn't to fix a problem, it was to make the exact problem more obvious in case the flight crew misinterpreted the alarm. You can guarantee that these lights were only one part of the solution, that would likely have involved everything from updating the on-board flight manuals (which was covered by the directive) all the way through to training and simulators. The 3 years (or 9 years, depending on where you start counting from) has now expired and there hasn't been another incidence of this, so... Scott ___ Link mailing list Link@mailman.anu.edu.au http://mailman.anu.edu.au/mailman/listinfo/link
Re: [LINK] Flash drives in the sea?
On Wed, Apr 30, 2014 at 4:15 PM, Scott Howard sc...@doc.net.au wrote: At the end of the day, the event that triggered this came down to a crew misinterpreting an alarm. This isn't a fault with the aircraft, Well, that´s up to discussion, having a single alarm for two purposes seems like a design deffect for me. fix wasn't to fix a problem, it was to make the exact problem more obvious in case the flight crew misinterpreted the alarm. The 3 years (or 9 years, depending on where you start counting from) has now expired and there hasn't been another incidence of this, so... I wonder if all the planes world-wide have been updated or just the ones under FAA (US) jurisdiction. In any case, back to topic, having an onboard system that gets GPS positioning data and relays such position data over inmarsat low-bitrate data link is doable going forward for trans-oceanic flights (it´d be overkill for domestic flights I assume), IF industry agrees on the cost and implementation details. Hughes 9201 http://www.hughes.com/technologies/mobilesat-systems/mobile-satellite-terminals/hughes-9201-bgan-inmarsat-terminal … I saw these up close being used by the CNN cew. The electronics in these are the size of a large tablet pc and self-contained... I´m sure the military have designed ways to embed such kind of sat uplink in fuselages... https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BfjltHqCUAEB4a_.jpg Key being ¨Cost-effective “always-on” access—_only charged for data sent and received_¨ GPS positioning data is just a few bytes per each read like... $GPRMC,081836,A,3751.65,S,14507.36,E,000.0,360.0,130998,011.3,E*62 66 characters every 5 mins... 792 bytes per hour Plus, it could be turned on only during long flights over areas without radar coverage, ie trans-oceanic flights... Just a thought... FC PS: I´m just thinking aloud, daydreaming, I´m not saying this will happen, probably never will. But wouldn´t it be nice? ;) ___ Link mailing list Link@mailman.anu.edu.au http://mailman.anu.edu.au/mailman/listinfo/link
Re: [LINK] Flash drives in the sea?
Why are they using flash drives that sink? On 2014/Apr/29, at 8:42 PM, Stephen Loosley wrote: When so much is connected to the Internet, why is the aerospace industry using technology that predates fax machines to look for flash drives in the sea? http://www.nytimes.com/2014/04/29/opinion/finding-a-flash-drive-in-the-sea.html? -- Kim Holburn IT Network Security Consultant T: +61 2 61402408 M: +61 404072753 mailto:k...@holburn.net aim://kimholburn skype://kholburn - PGP Public Key on request ___ Link mailing list Link@mailman.anu.edu.au http://mailman.anu.edu.au/mailman/listinfo/link
Re: [LINK] Flash drives in the sea?
On Wed, Apr 30, 2014 at 4:03 PM, Kim Holburn kim.holb...@gmail.com wrote: Why are they using flash drives that sink? Because creating something that is able to withstand the forces of a crash, and then have sufficient battery power to ping for several months (or more), which is also capable of floating, is extremely difficult... And of course, that presumes that it was able to be detached/ejected from the fuselage itself in some safe way, otherwise even if the black box floated it'd still end up on the bottom of the ocean. Scott ___ Link mailing list Link@mailman.anu.edu.au http://mailman.anu.edu.au/mailman/listinfo/link
Re: [LINK] Flash drives in the sea?
On 29/04/14 20:42, Stephen Loosley wrote: ... Airlines Flight 370 ... Tony Abbott, calls “probably the most difficult search in human history,” ... The searchers were mostly sitting in air-conditioned comfort, so it is not quite the same test of human endurance as Bernard O'Reilly's solo trek through the rugged McPherson Range in Queensland, to find aircraft VH-UHH Brisbane: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bernard_O%27Reilly_%28author%29 Also the Royal Australian Air Force (RAAF) and Royal Australian Navy (RAN) found and rescued Tony Bullimore and Therry Dubois from the Southern Ocean in 1997 (my job was to do the web pages about the rescue, most of which seem to have been deleted): http://www.defence.gov.au/media/1997/01697.html When so much is connected to the Internet, why is the aerospace industry using technology that predates fax machines to look for flash drives in the sea? ... Automatic dependent surveillance-broadcast (ADS-B) provides the position of airliners in populated areas: http://blog.tomw.net.au/2008/07/improved-air-traffic-control-with.html Outside the area covered by ADS-B, crew will report the aircraft's position by radio. Airliners also carry radio beacons to be activated after a crash. Programming the aircraft satellite communications to transmit periodic position reports may help post-accident investigation, but it is not going to assist those on board and may pose a risk to the aircraft. The ANU and Australian Computer Society run a course in Systems and Software Safety (COMP8180), with staff from the the High Integrity Systems Engineering group, University of York, to teach how to build such systems: http://programsandcourses.anu.edu.au/course/COMP8180 -- Tom Worthington FACS CP, TomW Communications Pty Ltd. t: 0419496150 The Higher Education Whisperer http://blog.highereducationwhisperer.com/ PO Box 13, Belconnen ACT 2617, Australia http://www.tomw.net.au Liability limited by a scheme approved under Professional Standards Legislation Adjunct Senior Lecturer, Research School of Computer Science, Australian National University http://cs.anu.edu.au/courses/COMP7310/ ___ Link mailing list Link@mailman.anu.edu.au http://mailman.anu.edu.au/mailman/listinfo/link
Re: [LINK] Flash drives in the sea?
At 08:42 PM 29/04/2014, Stephen Loosley wrote: When so much is connected to the Internet, why is the aerospace industry using technology that predates fax machines to look for flash drives in the sea? Good question. Answer: the same reason they didn't switch to long-life batteries after the French crash in the Atlantic - cost. Most airlines are broke and running on the smell of an oily rag. Add anything to the cost that isn't required by regulation and they freak out. Keep in mind they type of people who are CEOs of these things. Put the face of Alan Joyce on there and you'll understand. Plus airflight has been the safest in history in the last 4 years, so to even think about the need for anything that adds cost will get sneered at. My $.01 (won't compete with Frank) Jan Melbourne, Victoria, Australia jw...@janwhitaker.com Sooner or later, I hate to break it to you, you're gonna die, so how do you fill in the space between here and there? It's yours. Seize your space. ~Margaret Atwood, writer _ __ _ ___ Link mailing list Link@mailman.anu.edu.au http://mailman.anu.edu.au/mailman/listinfo/link
Re: [LINK] Flash drives in the sea?
On 29 April 2014 20:42, Stephen Loosley step...@melbpc.org.au wrote: The more than 50-day operation, which the Australian prime minister, Tony Abbott, calls “probably the most difficult search in human history... Probably one of the more ridiculous bits of hyperbole to be emitted from the mouth of an Australian politician in recent days. John Franklin's search for the North West Passage when the entire ships crew perished after two years despite resorting to cannibalism doesn't rate? The search for the great south land? ... :) Jim ___ Link mailing list Link@mailman.anu.edu.au http://mailman.anu.edu.au/mailman/listinfo/link
Re: [LINK] Flash drives in the sea?
On Wed, Apr 30, 2014 at 09:48:10AM +1000, Jim Birch wrote: John Franklin's search for the North West Passage when the entire ships crew perished after two years despite resorting to cannibalism doesn't rate? The search for the great south land? ... The search for evidence of the fate of the Franklin expedition, and the determination after 150 years that it was the lead that dissolved into the food from solder in the cans that did them in? Lasseter's reef? ___ Link mailing list Link@mailman.anu.edu.au http://mailman.anu.edu.au/mailman/listinfo/link
Re: [LINK] Flash drives in the sea?
On 30 April 2014 12:47, Chris Maltby ch...@sw.oz.au wrote: Lasseter's reef? The Higgs boson? (Like 40 years and €7.5B) ___ Link mailing list Link@mailman.anu.edu.au http://mailman.anu.edu.au/mailman/listinfo/link
Re: [LINK] Flash drives in the sea?
On 30/04/2014 1:31 PM, Jim Birch wrote: On 30 April 2014 12:47, Chris Maltby ch...@sw.oz.au wrote: Lasseter's reef? The Higgs boson? (Like 40 years and €7.5B) Noah's ark? Of course it might not exist, in which case the search will probably go on and on and on -- Regards brd Bernard Robertson-Dunn Sydney Australia email: b...@iimetro.com.au web: www.drbrd.com web: www.problemsfirst.com Blog: www.problemsfirst.com/blog ___ Link mailing list Link@mailman.anu.edu.au http://mailman.anu.edu.au/mailman/listinfo/link
